thebandit27

Thanks all. I almost didn’t mention it because I don’t want to make it about me. But there’s a therapeutic element in it too. Craziest thing is that my mother’s birthday was 2 days ago, so I’ve been a bit of an emotional basket case all week anyway.

Oh come on now. You know that’s not what I’ve said. Ever. I have said that Allen is the only player on the offense that opposing DCs actually have to game plan to stop. I’ve also said that he’s simply not consistent enough for the team to produce offensively if he’s the sole focus of the opposing D’s game plan. The fact of the matter with Allen is that he still misses too many throws, and he still fails to identify the easy (take what they give you) plays. I’ve said since March of 2018 that his missing throws is almost always due to him rushing his delivery, which results from the game moving too quickly. I have every reason to believe that he’ll continue to improve on that regard, but clearly he’s not where he needs to be. Now I shall go snack on a dark chocolate bar as I await the next person to tell me that pointing out an inaccuracy in a take means that nobody can criticize Josh ?

Holy cripes, for real? You’re casting a brutal aspersion here that I think you’re too smart to believe. I don’t know how it’s possible that folks like yourself can continue to brutally straw man this discussion into “nobody can criticize josh111!1!1!!!!2!2!!” It’s tiresome and silly. How did he not get much help? Really? The team scored 35 total TDs this year. Josh had 29 of them. That’s by far the highest percentage in the NFL. Contrast that with Lamar Jackson (who lead all QBs in total TDs)...he scored 40. I’d tell you how many TDs his team scored apart from him, but it would ruin the shock value when you see just how many it was. Look around the league. Most offenses don’t rely darn-near-solely on their QB to out the ball in the end zone. And yes, it’s nice that John Brown has a career year. It’s also nice that Cole Beasley had a career year. Both did so in an offense that attempted fewer passes than all but 8 teams. No way that had anything to do with the QB though. Once again I find myself astounded that the Allen detractors have to go to silly extremes in order to have a discussion. It’s unfathomable.

So you’re cutting Star for the $2.3M savings and then signing all of Shaq/Ngakoue/Phillips? I mean, yeah, it could be done, but you’ve probably got $45M tied up in the DL at that point and have likely spent $40M of FA money on the DL. I think we can do better

I feel like Jeremy is living the worst parts of my life, except that he’s having to do so in the public eye, and on a much grander scale. Don't get me wrong: my life is fantastic and we are blessed in abundance; I also wouldn’t wish the hardest parts of my life on anyone. I already pray for his family every day; I’ll just add this to the list.

Split. I think that they have some good ideas in that the archetypes they’ve brought in have been good fits for what they want to do offensively. I also think that they’ve found great value in guys like Nsekhe and Mongo. On the other hand, they’ve put a number of eggs in some questionable baskets like Gore, the WR3 spot, Kroft, and (even though it goes under the radar) Barkley. I believe this offseason will tell us a lot about whether or not they’re bound and determined to give Allen the best chance to succeed. And if I can be so bold, it will determine their long-term fate in Buffalo.

I think that the team has done just above the minimum when it comes to supporting Allen. They’ve given him nothing beyond serviceable when it comes to OL and WR. Contrast it to the approach that teams like Philly, LAR, Chicago, and Cleveland have taken to surround their young QBs with not only quality, but also quantity of explosive playmakers, and we’re waaaaay behind. And yes, the Lamar criticism is outrageous. I’ve said many times that I like all 5 of the 2018 QBs, and I still think they can all be good.

I think this characterization is a bit off. I think there’s a major difference between pointing out that the guy didn’t get much help around him this year to add context vs shifting blame for areas that he needs to improve. For example, there’s no question that Allen needs to improve his deep throws. You can certainly argue that his timing with his targets is off, and that a few were dropped or mishandled by WRs, but that in no way absolves him from needing to get better. Same with regard to accuracy. It’s more than fair to be critical of those that claim he’s the most inaccurate QB in the game by pointing out that he’s 21st in on-target throw percentage. That is in no way/shape/form a claim that he doesn’t need to continue to improve his accuracy. A good number of people seem to be unable to get away from extremes when it comes to this kid. My observation has been that the detractors are more aggressive in the application of Allen extremism, and I’m not too sure why.

Just posted back on 1/16. Don't think rankings have been updated; just the video database

Slap it on some lightly toasted Hawaiian rolls; delicious and simple. Oh, and shell out for some really good ground. I get mine from a farm nearby; the top quality beef really makes it.

OMG yes. I made this on NYE: https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/257030/chef-johns-hot-sloppy-joe-dip/ Not as a dip; just as a sloppy Joe slider recipe. It was spectacular.

He and Demarcus Robinson are the highest-value “flyer” types in FA this offseason IMO. Fallbacks if you don’t get a bona fide

All of the better defenses, or just some of them? I ask because Denver and Dallas finished as the 9th and 11th scoring defenses (and both were top 9 at the time they faced Buffalo) and he looked good against them. Nobody disagrees that he’s got a ways to go, but I will never understand why some folks think that anyone that recognizes what he does well consistently and sees signs that are very encouraging in his development somehow doesn’t also acknowledge that he still needs to improve.

Wait, am I reading this right? Are you implying that Allen is incompetent? That has to be me misreading it. It just HAS to be.

That’s the thing: their grades are not based on anything other than what they believe a player should be doing on a play without knowing his responsibility. They use data analysts to review All-22, not football people. It would be one thing if they got former Asst QC coaches from small colleges (for example) that are used to compiling hours and hours of film and at least have a clue of what they’re seeing; guys that can (again, just an example) tell whether a DT is following his read key and properly reacting to his pressure key in the half-second after the snap. I mean, I’ve watched a TON of All-22 film in the last 15 years, and most of the time I’m just guessing. To do that correctly for every player on every team for every snap of the season would be incredibly difficult for even a seasoned pro. To assume that statisticians can do so is pretty dubious IMO. I still think there’s a fair chance that Phillips gets PAID. How often does a healthy, 340-lb, 26-year old pass rusher hit the open market?

Yes, Tre is a superstar. That doesn’t mean that this team doesn’t sorely lack them. Looking around the league, most teams have at least one. We don’t need to go through the exercise of naming them by team, as I’m sure you know that already. Point being, this team needs players that scare opponents. And yes, FA Superstars win Super Bowls. Every year in fact. There’s a reason that NE gave big money to Gilmore and a stable of RBs. There’s a reason that Philly signed Alshon Jeffery and Michael Bennett. Look at this year’s finalists: SF gave huge money to Dee Ford and Tevin Coleman (and also traded for Sanders); KC gave a massive contract to Frank Clark a year after breaking the bank for Sammy. FAs fill immediate needs; why wouldn’t you want a WR1 or a top-end EDGE rusher if you can’t get one without giving up a draft pick? And I’m sorry, but if you don’t think that an additional 13 players on the roster comprised of guys like Brown, Beasley, Roberts, Morse, Nsekhe, Feliciano, Long, and Yeldon—that’s 5 starters, a solid backup, and 2 specialists—is a massive difference in roster volume and quality, then I’m not sure what to say to be honest. The team has $120M in space next season. They can easily spend $80M of that on FA and draft pick contracts and still have plenty of room to sign all of Tre, Dawkins, and Milano. There’s absolutely no reason to pinch pennies. They got value with quantity last year; now is the time to get high quality and raise the star talent level on the team.

I think the more pertinent point is that claiming that Allen is “dead last” in terms of accuracy isn’t true. In fact he’s not even bottom 10. I’m not saying that we should be happy with 21st, but there’s a relative chasm between the claim and reality.

The most relevant stat to the accuracy discussion that PFR does is “on target throwing percentage”...Allen is 21st. So in other words you want to throw out any statistics that don’t agree with your position? I feel like there was a poster that got upset that someone else was doing that...think his handle was Billl, or something like that... I didn’t ever say that any one statistic correlated more strongly with great QB play—you did. Funny how every discussion involving someone that doesn’t like Allen always involves them having to straw man (or flat out make things up) at some point. How about this: there are things that Allen is very good at; scoring TDs and delivering in crunch time among them. There are also areas where he clearly needs to improve (as I and just about everyone else on the planet have said over and over and over and over). Is that so hard to acknowledge?

So you’re saying that context matters? Great. I agree. Put everything into context and we’ll analyze it. I’m on my way to Russell’s for dinner. I actually don’t believe that a statistic can be flawed. A statistic is a number, an indicator; nothing more or less. A calculated and manipulated rating, on the other hand, can be flawed. Completion percentage is simply a number—how many passes a QB throws that are caught vs not caught. An analysis that conflates it with accuracy may be flawed (but isn’t necessarily if the correct context is applied). More to say about analysis, but steak awaits.

Agreed. No clue how he’d get passed 15

He’ll add him eventually. DJ and I think too much alike for him to pass on Reagor. I mean, I waited 3 months to see my boy Justin Simmons show up, but it happened ? Ruggs! I’m not a Laviska guy in round 1. Too much RB and not enough WR to be an asset anytime soon IMO.

Every analysis, or just the ones that support your argument? That knife cuts both ways my man. You left out that Allen was... 6th in total TDs by a QB 8th in completed air yards per completion 1st in 4th quarter comebacks 3rd in 4th quarter passer rating 1st in 3rd and long conversion rate 3rd in 3rd down passer rating So maybe it’s not every available analysis; maybe you should also be more receptive to multi variable analyses.

The same QBR formula that gave Allen a lower QBR for 2019 than 2018 despite him improving his numbers and performance in literally every possible category?

Been waiting on this—DJ is my man! Snap reactions: He and I are in 100% lockstep on the top 5 WRs. Can’t believe how high he’s got Queen Can’t believe how low he’s got some of these DBs Mah boy Neville Gallimore! Surprised not to see Reagor; betcha DJ ends up with him in his top 50 by April

That last paragraph is solid. Ok, that’s it. I gave you multiple chances to figure out how absolutely, unequivocally wrong you are without publicly shaming you, but I’m done with that: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/glossary LCAD ”Air distance is the amount of yards the ball has traveled on a pass, from point of release to the point of reception (as the crow flies). Unlike Air Yards, Air Distance measures the actual distance the passer throws the ball” had you actually watched the videos that you posted and claim to have watched, you’d see that clearly the number reflects what both Hapless and I have said. This is really, really easy to understand, so either you’re intentionally obfuscating, or...paging @DC Tom