thebandit27

Ashland TE Adam Shaheen is the new Dallas Clark

The LBs will be a major issue unless the team is able to BOTH re-sign Zach Brown AND bring in at least one other 30-40 snaps/game player. Maybe Ragland can get his weight down to below 240 and play at that level, but I'm not confident about it. Zach can play the Will, but I really do think he's going to get serious money on the open market ($7M AAV or maybe more). The starting DL of Lawson-Dareus-Kyle-Hughes will be fine, as will the interior backups of Washington/Worthy--that Washington can also give snaps at the EDGE on run downs is a bonus, but they definitely need a 3rd pass rusher assuming LorAx can't be re-signed at a reasonable rate--i.e. $4M for a one-year deal (FWIW, Spotrac has him valued at $6.5M AAV).

I know that we say this about every FA (Bills or otherwise), but he really is a perfect fit for them. He can block, run precise routes, and he competes

Indeed! And Hunter (RIP) And the Bandit twins, who are 4 years old today!

Indeed; I'll amend my list of perfectly-happy to 8: Garrett, Allen, Hooker, Adams, Davis, Williams, Foster, Lattimore. So that means that we need 2 QBs to go in the top 10 if we want to land one of them.

Of course! I just think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that he's off the board.

Yes, it seems I need to re-visit... Cleveland: Jimmy Garoppolo SF: Mitch Trubisky Jets: Tony Romo Bears: DeShone Kizer Bills: Tyrod Taylor Broncos: Trevor Siemien Texans: DeShaun Watson

I am really hoping that 2 QBs go in the top 10, because I have 7 non-QBs that I would be perfectly happy to see the Bills draft: Allen, Hooker, Adams, Lattimore, Foster, Davis, and Williams. I can't see all 7 of them being gone before the 10th pick if 2 QBs go, since there are other guys like Fournette and Solomon Thomas that will probably get top-10 grades from a few teams as well.

I really don't think there's any chance he gets past the top 40 picks. Too many teams with QB needs picking in that range: Cleveland picks 3 times SF picks twice Chicago picks twice NYJ pick twice Plus you have Arizona and Houston. I have to figure that out of those 6 teams and 11 picks, 4 QBs will be taken, and my money is on Trubisky/Watson/Kizer/Mahomes being those 4.

He's my favorite as well, but I have him as my QB2 right now because I think Trubisky is more likely to be able to start immediately.

Just FYI... "If here's there Day 2...I've had people tell me Mahomes is their favorite quarterback in the draft."-Ian Rapoport

I don't think character was the issue for most of us--a DUI is a mistake, and it wasn't part of a pattern. For me, the issue was that he didn't appear well-developed as a passer in any respect, hadn't operated an NFL offense, and his YPA took nearly a full-yard hit as a senior.

Real actual All-22 film is extremely difficult to come by, so most of us use draftbreakdown.com, where they provide broadcast video cut up to show all of the relevant plays involving a particular prospect.

Hah! Gunner would have to carry the looks dept I'm afraid; I'm no better than a 6 on even the most generous of scales. And P51 too. And we were this close to having a balance of Americans and Brits.

No, it's probably not fair. Just an observation that they weren't on the same page (and in some cases not even in the same book )

Actually, his numbers from this season were nearly identical to both Sherman's and Norman's: Josh Norman, Washington Redskins: allowed 44 catches on 88 targets for 589 yards, four TDs, three INTs, 72.6 passer rating against, 52 solo tackles Richard Sherman, Seattle Seahawks: allowed 44 catches on 85 targets for 624 yards, two TDs, four INTs, 64.0 passer rating against, 38 solo tackles Stephon Gilmore, Buffalo Bills: allowed 40 catches on 69 targets for 627 yards, two TDs, five INTs, 67.7 passer rating against, 42 solo tackles Up until this year I'd have given you an unequivocal yes, but Jenkins had a superb year for the Giants--he and Xavier Rhodes were the two best corners in football IMO

Right now, I rank them 1) Trubiksy 2) Mahomes, 3) Watson 4) Kizer 5) Webb 6) Peterman I also like a few later-round guys like Antonio Pipkin, but I haven't written enough notes to do a thorough evaluation on him. Good call--it's going to be very interesting as a case study for can-raw-skills-be-coached-into-QB-performance? He's not in my top cut. I'll put him on the list to write-up if I end up coming back for a 2nd round of QB analysis. I did this after I ate dinner and got my kids to bed...much different disposition. As to Dennison, it really depends on how much he wants to remake the offense. If he is married to the WCO, then a guy like Webb or Trubisky--who can deliver the ball quickly and accurately on the short patterns--would be a really good fit. If they plan to stick close to the type of movement-based scheme that incorporates zone-read looks, then either Watson or Mahomes are the guys. I'm struggling to picture Mahomes dropping to the mid-40s. If they truly love one of the QBs when they're on the clock at 10, they need to go with him. If they feel good-but-not-great, then this might be a good year to re-coup a few extra picks a la the EJ trade. but I would rather they stay at 10 and take an impact player.

I see nobody wants to take me up on my request to compare Gilmore's 2016 stats to Richard Sherman's...it would probably save you from categorically-incorrect statements like this one.

I started with my top 6, and may add more in the future. Feel free to comment as you see fit. Note that they do not appear in the order in which I would rank them. For each player I evaluated, I’m posting video of a game that I felt would serve as a microcosm for both the positives and negatives of his game. DeShaun Watson - Clemson http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6J8-Sw2ULx0 Notes (time correlates to comment): (0:00), (0:50) (7:45) gets flat-footed in the pocket, which can cause the ball to sail, but the delivery is tight and compact (0:40) (4:55) drives the ball into tight windows (1:10) back-to-back plays where the ball comes out quickly and accurately to his 1st read (3:20) (8:25) struggles to consistently diagnose EDGE on zone-read plays (3:55) consistently willing to take what the defense gives him—this, IMO, is huge, because it sets up the deep shot he takes about 30 seconds later in the video. I don’t hate the INT; I’ve always felt that an INT on a deep throw is tantamount to a punt. (5:54) I like this throw, but I don’t love it. He sells the action-side roll-out, and does a really nice job of getting his head around and making a timely throw. I wish he’d transfer his weight a bit better to get the ball another foot or two over the top, and I wonder if that ball doesn’t get picked in the NFL. (7:54) boy does he get the ball out quickly on that blast play; that’s an NFL throw (9:23) I know he takes a sack here, but I like that he’s willing to hang in the pocket (10:00) that’s just a truly great run-excellent vision Summary: there’s a lot to like about his physical skills. He’s a QB that can run rather than an athlete playing QB. I think NFL GMs are going to have some pause about how his ability to go through progressions will develop, and that may hurt him some. I’d like to think that lower-body mechanical issues are correctable, but we’ve seen that issue played out before. I am giving him a top-25 grade because of positional value, but I think he needs some work before he’ll be able to maximize his considerable physical talents. Patrick Mahomes - Texas Tech http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_b7SYXw-zU Notes (time correlates to comment): (0:20) constantly throws from an unstable platform, causing occasional accuracy issues (0:41) likes to unload quickly, but willing to go through progressions to find the open man (2:18) now this is Mahomes in a nutshell. He comes off his 1st read, buys time, bails out of the pocket, retreats, escapes with his excellent mobility, keeps his eyes downfield, and uses his above-average arm strength to launch a rocket to the open man. (4:06) this is a misfire, but I love that he stays on the balls of his feet on this play; it shows me that he can be taught to correct his footwork. (4:33) another Mahomes special. Bails out the back of the pocket, retreats, and then throws an incredible strike across his body while on the run. You can’t teach that kind of talent. (5:18) this ball is out in less than 2 seconds, and it’s in stride. (8:33) two things I like about this: he steps into the pocket before he bails, and again, the accuracy on the run (8:46) the not-so-good about him: those happy feet cause 2 consecutive misses that could’ve been big plays. Calm those feet son! (12:28) this makes me happy: climb the pocket and deliver. Summary: I deliberately picked this game because it was his worst of the year, and I wanted to see if the things that I like about him popped off the tape anyway. They did. He has plenty of arm, great athleticism, and a unique ability to extend the play. He isn’t simply a broken-play QB, as he does look to get the ball out quickly whenever he can. As with most college QBs nowadays, he’s going to need to prove that he can go through progressions consistently, but his pre-snap reads seem to be very advanced. If he can calm his footwork, and grow his tendency to climb to safety instead of bailing (a la Russell Wilson), I think he’s a starter in this league. To me, that’s worth a 1st round pick. DeShone Kizer - Notre Dame http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7MlOhU10-s Notes (time correlates to comment): (first 3 plays) ball comes out quickly and with good zip (0:50) (4:49) will rush his delivery at times, causing the ball to come out low (1:13) great job scanning the field and coming back to early read (3:00) climbs to safety and calmly sets his feet prior to the throw (3:30) poor ball placement on back-to-back end zone throws (4:03) big-time throw on the dig route-puts the ball in the only place the WR can get it (5:30) money on the slant; great ball placement (8:27) it’s 4th and inches…if your QB can’t take a snap under center, that’s a problem. (8:40) lack of deep shots has the defense creeping up; Kizer isn’t backing them off at all Summary: I’ve seen folks like Daniel Jeremiah, who I really respect, rate Kizer as their #1 QB. I’m not there. He does some critical things really well: his timing passes are excellent, his ability to scan the field is solid, and he’s got good power in his throws. There are also some real red flags for me in that he can’t seem to take a snap from under center, and his accuracy seems to drop precipitously beyond 20 yards. Moreover, I don’t like that he seems to go long stretches without challenging the deep secondary, and he also doesn’t appear to work the boundary down the field. Right now, he’s a R2 guy for me, but I think there will be a team that drools over his measurables enough to take him much higher than that. Mitch Trubisky - UNC http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOczBf5dLEA Notes (time correlates to comment): (0:33) after 4 consecutive 1-read throws, it would’ve been nice to see him hold the ball for a second and challenge the single coverage over the middle. (0:41) see above; lesson learned (0:51) misplaces the deep ball-if that throw is inside it’s a TD (1:18) now this is good; stays tall on the balls of his feet in the pocket and delivers a perfect deep strike-not his fault it’s dropped (1:39) nice ball fake (1:45) another nice throw on the deep fade (2:29) now this is the right time to throw laterally-comes off his first read and finds the dump off for some easy yards (3:13) makes up for missing the wide open target in the MOF by coming back to the opposite boundary for a 1st down throw (4:18) a bit late on the drag route, but throw is perfectly placed (4:32) picks the wrong deep guy; makes up for it with a perfect read on the next play (4:49) this is a disgraceful play; I have nothing else to say about it (5:12) does well by staying tall and active in the pocket, but waits too long and bails instead of taking the check-down a full second earlier (6:09) his base looks really wide here; makes me wonder if he’s lacking some arm strength and needs to exaggerate his weight transfer to power the ball on the boundary throws Summary: I like that everything seems to happen fast with Trubisky. I also like that he looks like he learns from his mistakes. He misses some key reads, particularly in the deep middle, and he has a tendency to float some balls to the boundary that he should be driving. I’d like to see his drop-back mechanics before I’d be really comfortable forecasting his ability to play under center in the NFL. Overall, I’ll give him a 1st round grade, mostly because I feel like he’s the closest thing to an early starter that this draft has to offer. I think he’d benefit most from a timing-based offense, and I think he’ll need some big targets that can go up and get the 50/50 balls he likes to throw. Davis Webb - Cal http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfKNMJGU36A Notes (time correlates to comment): (0:09) climbs into the pocket without hesitation (0:21) doesn’t set his feet and sails the deep ball into double coverage (0:39) maintains accuracy despite throwing off back foot (0:59) good signs here-stands tall and stays on the balls of his feet, with a good stride, and delivers on the 3-route while pocket collapses (1:17) great awareness to break the pocket and keep his eyes up; nice TD throw on the run (1:51) drives nicely from the top of his drop-back and shows beautiful touch on the deep ball (2:32) should’ve held this ball longer and waited for something else to develop; almost got his RB killed (2:41) that’s a very nice off-balance throw on the option route, which he follows up by dropping a deep fade into the bucket with Sidney Jones in coverage (3:11) have to anticipate and make that throw sooner (3:30) great touch on the blast throw (4:43) this has to be the 4th or 5th time he’s had a miscommunication with a WR; not good (5:30) this gets a mention for sheer toughness; anyone that’s willing to take that shot to make a short throw when you’re down 30 points is tough enough for me (6:22) another really nice deep fade throw Summary: I had to pick the Washington game to see how well Webb held up against what basically amounts to an NFL secondary (Jones/King/Baker). He really held his own for a while, but as often happens to young QBs, he started forcing throws and getting into trouble. I like the mechanics and touch on his deep throws, but I don’t see a lot of velocity on either the inward-breaking or boundary throws. He probably needs to play in a timing-based offense, but I see value on day 2 for a team that can surround him with weapons. Nathan Peterman - Pitt http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6thWRVxAUSc Notes (time correlates to comment): (0:12) first, I like that he can take a snap from under center; thems are bonus points (0:19) good job scanning the field and finding the leak (0:36) I don’t care if this is a massive hold, he does a nice job of scrambling here (1:08) holds the ball just long enough to let his man come open; gutsy (1:25) accurate throw off his back foot while under duress (1:38) good velocity over the middle (1:56) everything but the throw is solid here-way too much on that one…the next 2 throws, however, are money, and come off his back foot again. Not sure he gets away with that at the next level, but impressive nonetheless (3:45) sometimes you need to know when NOT to make a throw; this would be one of those times (4:11) right idea to step into the pocket; need to protect the ball or make the throw sooner (5:05) I like that he climbs the pocket, but you’ve got an offside call here; take a shot Summary: I was much more impressed with Peterman than I expected. He’s willing to hold the ball and throw 50/50 passes, which tells me that he’s not afraid to make mistakes. Sometimes, however, his awareness fails him both in the pocket and down the field. His unbalanced footwork will cause his intermediate throws to sail on him from time to time as well. I’m giving him a R2 grade based on the tools.

He would, but he'd be a risk. He's got good size and solid ball skills, so I think he'd be a fit. It would have to be at a small number, because... Yep. IMO, this is the kind of guy you sign to an incentive-laden deal.

I hope you're doing well, Bill. IMO, you undermine your points when you say that the 10th overall pick is 'wasted" on a guy that's easily a top-15 corner (but more likely at least top-10 given that his target/reception,/TD/passer rating allowed/INT/PD/tackle numbers fall right in line with the Shermans, Normans, & Petersons of the league). That's a well-spent pick. Is it possible to find a better player later in the draft? Sure. That doesn't mean it's likely. As to corners winning games, I don't remember a single game that's ever been won by a corner. If you don't believe that corner is a premium position, that's fine, but it can't boil down to the player in that case. Suffice to say I would disagree on that point--dial up the 2014 Packers-Bills game if you want to see a game that Gilmore practically took over. But that's the sticking point when evaluating corners--people literally only notice when they give up a play. Right now, you're blasting a guy that allowed 2 TDs the entire 2016 season--which many folks still (misguidedly) consider a bad year for him. Meanwhile, compare his numbers to Richard Sherman for 2016...Gilmore allowed fewer TDs, had more interceptions, 3 fewer tackles, and allowed a 67.7 passer rating compared to Sherman's 63.0. I'm in favor of keeping him if it can happen at less than $14M AAV, but I think that's unlikely, so I think he'll go. My point is that I believe folks that see him as easily-replaceable are in for a very, very rude awakening.

And I thought we were pals Honestly, if we had more games to evaluate, I think there's a chance he cracks the top 50. Lee is probably an ambitious-but-fair comparison on his upside. I think the 3-4 range is probably right when his availability is taken into context.

Oh I get that, and I don't necessarily disagree. I meant that I don't understand the "that guy sucks he's gotta go!!!111!!1!!!" mentality when it comes to the team's best players

Let's cherry pick from both sides if we're going to do it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDRZ1lDAMe4

Not to mention that--when the contact occurred--Sanders was at the 32-1/2 yard line, which is 1 yard away from the 33-1/2 yard line where the ball was snapped from. Actions within 1 yard of the LOS cannot be PI.