thebandit27

When discussing the many factors that affected Josh Allen's ability to operate the offense, one of the ones I've often cited is just how utterly alone he was in producing offense for this team. I regularly cited the fact that he produced over 80% of the team's total offense in games he started, which was easily the most of any rookie QB, and was 2nd only to TB's QB combo in terms of offensive yardage produced by the QB over the course of the season. But one topic that hasn't gotten a deep dive is just how bad the running game was outside of the yards produced by Josh Allen, which is why I've created this thread. Folks, the run game is a huge problem, and it needs to be fixed this offseason. First, let's start with the raw numbers: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&season=2018&seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&role=TM&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&conference=ALL&d-447263-s=RUSHING_AVERAGE_YARDS http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&season=2018&seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&statisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=null&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS Do with them what you will, but I want to focus on the one number that I think tells most of the story: 4.2 YPC. Is that really that bad, you ask? No, on the surface it isn't. It's tied for 21st in the NFL, which is below-average, but not abysmal in any sense. But here's the problem: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&season=2018&seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&statisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=null&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS Not a single player ranking in the top 30 in the NFL in rushing yards...and, of course, there's the fact that Allen lead the team in rushing. I'm not normally a huge fan of "if you remove his rushing yards" type analyses, but in this case, it's important to normalize the non-QB rushing yards across a large enough sample space in order to see just how much of a difference his contributions make to the numbers. To do so, I took the total rushing numbers from teams whose QBs rushed for 300 or more yards and removed the QB's contributions to see the effect on YPC. Here's what that looks like: Team Rush Att YDS QB Rush Att YDS Non-QB YPC Baltimore 547 2441 Jackson 147 695 4.37 Houston 472 2021 Watson 99 551 3.94 Chicago 468 1938 Trubisky 68 421 3.79 Carolina 416 2136 Newton 101 488 5.23 Jacksonville 416 1723 Bortles 58 365 3.79 Seattle 534 2560 Wilson 67 376 4.68 Tennessee 454 2023 Mariota 64 357 4.27 Dallas 439 1963 Prescott 75 305 4.55 TB 389 1523 Winston/Fitz 85 433 3.59 Buffalo 468 1984 Allen 89 631 3.57 Tampa Bay is the only team that even came close to having as bad a running game as Buffalo...and keep in mind that Buffalo has what most NFL observers would categorize as a solid group of backs, yet that YPC would rank dead last in the NFL if not for Josh Allen basically performing the role of lead back. There's the data set...thoughts?

If Daboll is looking for someone he's worked with, then George Warhop would make sense. He was just let go from Dirk Koetter's staff in Tampa Bay, and he was OL coach in Cleveland for both years of Daboll's term as OC there. Another name to watch could be Ole Miss' Jack Bicknell, who coached OL in KC when Daboll was OC there. Not sure I'd be thrilled with either guy, but nevertheless, names to watch

Makes me think that it's Vance. I'd assume that Hue would probably keep assistants in place, but that's just a guess

I like some of your suggestions, here are my thoughts: - The time to deal for a Chiefs' guard was last pre-season, when they were shopping Parker Ehinger. Moving LDT saves them no money in 2019, but you're right that their cap crunch probably means that they don't re-sign Morse, who could be the only FA center to hit the market that's worth pursuing. - Marrone loves Linder; I don't think he goes anywhere. - LAC are more likely to move on from Schoefield than Lamp IMO. Lamp saves them less than a half-million against he cap, while Schoefield's release would save $2.5M in 2019. - Lewis would be a good option if they're willing to move on. The guy I'd really like to pilfer from Baltimore is Marshal Yanda, who has a $10M cap number. It's probably unlikely given that he's still one of the 5 best guards in football, but he'll be 35 at the start of the 2019 season, and they could slide James Hurst right into his place at RG, so it's possible they'd deal him

In a heartbeat

Good, now get my boy Rod Wilson

Maybe he didn't get an offer from Buffalo. Maybe he did and his family wanted to go someplace warm. Maybe he knows Bruce Arians better than McDermott. There are any number of valid reasons why a position coach might take one job over another. You're jumping to conclusions.

Um, that's a pretty massive leap in logic.

Asian whiskeys are my new go-to spirits. Nikka Yoichi and Hibiki 17 are among my favorite Japanese whiskeys Kavalan Classic is a personal favorite; Taiwanese

That is my theory as well.

I've never seen Alex Marvez be wrong about anything NFL-related.

Clearly--that's why he went for a guy like Josh Allen

I don't care if we beat the Washington Generals as long as we hoist a Lombardi in my lifetime.

They're going to have between $45M and $50M of cap space once E. Sanders is released, so I doubt Paradis was going to hit FA anyway.

I think it's an excellent hire.

That whole DL is nasty. Either Wilkins or Dexter Lawrence would be great picks at 9.

There's only 32 NFL head coaching jobs, and clearly he wanted one badly enough to make the jump. It may be his last chance; the league is moving toward young, offensive-minded HCs, and Fangio is an older, defensive-minded guy. HCs almost always allow assistants out of their contracts if they want to leave for other jobs.

Fangio is getting this job because he's willing to have Kubiak forced upon him as OC.

Aside from Episode IX, not much. Probably my most anticipated is John Wick: Chapter 3; those movies are fun I'd like to be more excited about Alita: Battle Angel, because I think Robert Rodriguez is great and it has a good cast, but early looks are uninspiring. Maybe Tarantino will pull off a solid with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood--the cast is dynamite, but he's gone way too far into shock-and-awe theater lately. I'll also throw a nod out to Joker. I'll watch anything that start Joaquin Phoenix, and maybe Todd Phillips can go more Very Bad Things and less Hangover Sequels on this one. Lastly, I've pounded the table for a live-action He Man film, and it looks like we're finally going to get one in Masters of the Universe come December.

Let me get this straight: you think that Steve Keim, who traded up to draft Josh Rosen in April, hired a coach specifically so that he can draft a different QB at No. 1 overall a mere year after trading up to get his current QB, just to turn and deal the QB that he traded up to get to a team in the same conference for a 4th round pick? That would effectively mean that Keim gave up Rosen, a 3rd round pick, and a 5th round pick for a 4th round pick. Well, that definitely qualifies as a bold prediction.

You're correct that it's extremely important to identify good investments, and not part-time players like Walker/Gandy/Reyes/Fowler/Teague. And again, signing 2 starters in FA does not mean that the team shouldn't be drafting OLmen; it means that it's more prudent to address need in FA and allow the draft to come to them. They have 10 picks, which is more than enough ammo to stock the roster with OL prospects in rounds 3-5, where you routinely find solid starters (especially on the interior).

Probably worth saying: Building an OL via FA is definitely possible. The Rams did it in 2017, signing Whitworth, Sullivan, and Blythe in FA. In fact, the 2017 Rams are the exact offensive model that Buffalo should be following FA-wise and in the draft. In addition to the OL additions, they also acquired Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp, Gerald Everett, and Tyler Higbee. Basically they decided to surround their rookie QB, who was horrible in his first season, with as much offensive talent as possible. And it worked. Id love to see a similar effort here. That's not to say that they shouldn't be drafting for the OL, just that they should be getting veteran talent in FA as much as possible to give themselves flexibility in the draft. Chasing need results in poor decisions at the podium.

Perhaps...though they actually save more cap space by cutting Jackson ($11M) than Dareus ($10M), and Dareus is younger. I also think that they could cut both and go into the season with Taven Bryan and Abry Jones as starters

Something like that

The Jags basically have to cut either Jackson or Calais Campbell. I'm assuming Jackson will be it given that they still have Dareus, Abry Jones, and 2018 first round pick Taven Bryan in the fold, but Campbell might make more sense as a guy that's older and slowing down. However, if Jackson is released, then yes, absolutely, I'd take a look.