thebandit27

More or less what I'm getting at in theory, but I'd want to see more of Neal before thinking that he can handle that role. That's a fair point...I reference Stanford only to say that the team was able to get solid MLB play from a street FA in Edmunds' absence. Now, to be fair, Stanford is one of the best athletes in the NFL, so I don't know if you can expect to routinely be able to pluck guys like that off the street, but they managed to do so, which is great. I'm probably looking for Edmunds to play over the TE against large personnel groupings with Milano/LorAx playing more traditional off-ball roles, and then using Edmunds as a stand-up EDGE defender against smaller groupings with Milano/LorAx/Stanford (and perhaps Neal and Bush) rotating in as my other coverage LBs. That way you can still take advantage of Edmunds' ability to mirror TEs and backs when OCs try to get physical mis-matches by playing extra TEs, while also putting his exceptionally rare pass rush traits (burst, bend, length, etc) to their maximal use.

You could have said the same thing about RG3 as a rookie--he was a baller. I'm not anointing anyone after playing 14 games against a last-place schedule when DCs don't have an entire offseason to game plan against him.

Edmunds can play MLB in this scheme; that doesn't necessarily mean that MLB in this scheme is the best use of his skill set. I personally think that he'd be a near-dominant player in the Bruce Irvin LEO/Joker/Elephant/whatever-they're-calling-it-these-days role. It doesn't hurt that Stanford looked quite capable as the MLB when Edmunds was hurt.

I don't think the Raiders traded away their best players for picks just so that they can trade those picks away to move up in the draft...but then again, Gruden is a loose cannon

Yep, it's far beyond what would be considered normal or reasonable to expect. Then again, I was consistent in saying that I've never liked a QB class anywhere near as much as 2018--I thought (and still think) that all 5 first-rounders have a legitimately good shot to become franchise QBs.

I think people get confused easily when evaluating QBs; it's all about the "might" factor. You draft a QB early if you think there's a chance he might become a franchise QB. With Allen, I put his likelihood-to-bust at about 50%, which was 2nd-highest among my 1st round QBs (I had Jackson the highest at ~55% and Mayfield/Rosen the lowest at 25%). I've seen more progression this season than I expected, so I've dropped my bust potential on Allen down to 25%. I'd say it looks like this: QB Draft Day Bust Potential Current Bust Potential Mayfield 25% 20% Rosen 25% 25% Darnold 40% 25% Allen 50% 25% Jackson 55% 40%

I think that's very optimistic of you. I'd say there's more like a 25% chance that he busts and a 1% chance that he's league MVP. Even a 5,000-yard season won't guarantee an MVP for a guy.

How bad can he be if he's not even bottom 5?

Kind of...I think the stat I posted "tries" to account for that because they're categorizing a "pressure" as a disruption that occurs in less than 3 seconds. I would say that 3 seconds is considered "long" for holding the ball in the NFL, but I can see why they chose it. Tracking that stat to a median (which is ~2.7 seconds) is probably a pain in the backside.

Interesting stat for Edmunds:

Here's something interesting...look at Allen's passer rating when facing pressure through Week 14 : Now look at the same snap-shot through week 17: I can't find what his final rating was, but the improvement is noteworthy.

It's been better, but Russell Wilson still faces pressure in under 3 seconds on a high percentage of drop-backs--36%, which is the 5th-most in the league.

Yeah, I guess it really depends on how well he's recovered. We've seen players come back from ACLs in a single calendar year, and I'd like to think that a punter isn't using his COD skills as much as a skill-position player, but it's definitely a concern. Either way, they need some competition for the job.

A few thoughts here: - No doubt about WR and TE; they need to make a trade AND a FA signing - I wonder if, based on Daboll's preference, they'll make a play for Alabama's Brent Key at OL coach - I think EDGE rusher is a HUGE need, but they have an in-house candidate for that role in Edmunds...if they're willing to move him out to the EDGE in a Bruce Irvin type role. I know people won't like hearing it, but it probably gives him the best chance to make the most impact, and Julian Stanford actually looked quite solid playing the Mike - I continue to believe that the team was set on keeping Cory Carter as their punter before he tore his ACL in pre-season. He was impressive in TC and was crushing the ball in games.

The Bills have enough picks; what they need is to draft talented players at key positions. Also, I strongly disagree that this is a weak draft at the top; much of the defensive talent looks really solid. It does happen, however, to not be top-loaded with offensive skill position talent, but we shouldn't be drafting for need anyway.

I see no one acting that way

Reed and Bailey are locks

Nice massive misrepresentation of my point. Are you capable of intellectual honesty at all? If so, then please point to where I said anything even remotely close to what you're attributing to me above. Otherwise stop lying and admit that your Kizer-Allen point was silly from the beginning and had no basis in fact. Or don't. I highly doubt I'm going to take you seriously either way, because as much as you may want to tout your "analysis" as being valid, it's basically an onslaught of verbal diarrhea that culminates in a conclusion that's a total non sequitur. Now, for the good of the thread, I'll stop responding to you Its also worth pointing out when discussing playing under duress that Allen faced pressure on ~39% of his drop backs per NFL Matchup. 2nd highest in the league

Then "they" aren't really evaluating it critically now, are they?

Ah, so we should ignore his last game because it doesn't support your opinion? Let's ignore Kizer's last game too--does that help or hurt your comparison? and you're audacious enough to call MY honesty into question? Yeah. Ok.

Only 6 teams had a lower YPC than Buffalo's 4.2, and that's factoring in Allen's 631 yards on 89 carries (average of 7.1). That's a pretty horrendous run game.

Their rookie TD:INT ratios aren't even in the same neighborhood, and anyone that says otherwise is mathematically illiterate https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=DeShone+Kizer&player_id1_select=DeShone+Kizer&fromyear_1=2017&toyear_1=2018&player_id1=KizeDe00&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Josh+Allen&player_id2_select=Josh+Allen&fromyear_2=2018&toyear_2=2018&player_id2=AlleJo02&idx=players But you're right that one of us is missing something, so we're definitely done here I wouldn't want to see the kind of soft touch pass that sealed the win vs Detroit taken out of the playbook: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000001000576/Josh-Allen-lofts-perfect-pass-to-Jason-Croom

I beat insomnia with the following approach: - increase saturated fat intake by eating more eggs and red meat (no, this is not bad for you) - take a zinc/magnesium/calcium supplement twice per day - cut out mobile device usage a minimum of 1 hour prior to bedtime Hope that helps

According to Spotrac, the DTs making $3-$4M AAV that aren't on rookie contracts are: Akeem Spence Haloti Ngata Steve McClendon Domata Peko lawrence Guy Abry Jones Corey Peters Bennie Logan Earl Mitchell Rotational guys. All of them. Now, if you don't think Phillips is worth as much as those guys, that's fine, but that's what a rotational DT that plays 30+ snaps per game costs.

And what I'll tell you is to look at the WRs that are putting up 800-900 yards per season--most of them are names like Landry, Lockett, Shepard, Sanders, Edelman, Jeffery, Godwin, Sanu, & Humphries. You can find these guys pretty readily. That's all I'm saying. I'll leave now to avoid ruffling any more feathers