JESSEFEFFER

Have you watched it yet? Pay attention to when Fitz gets his shoulders turned and hits the near hashes. Look at the position of Fitz compared to Pears, Jackson and Chandler. That's 4 bodies in a line. While the entire home viewing public and most of the stadium could see that Scott was free and clear, Fitz could not. He had his back turned to execute the play fake and when he turns tries to find Chandler he gets a great view of Erik Pear's #79. Can he tell that Chandler is on his route? I suspect this is his option base on the the coverage. Is there a defender over the top? Could there be a 5th body on the hashes? So Fitz does the smart thing and continues to roll until he can better see the field. But Jackson continues to drive Pears deeper into the backfield and toward the sideline. Chandler is taking his route up the field more than across thus keeping Jackson between Fitz and him a few beats longer. Fitz stays patient and continues to roll and eventually clears Pears/Jackson and can see the field clearly. Just as he is getting ready to fire a bullet pass to Chandler, Jackson disengages from Pears and extends his hand toward the blurry flight of the ball which is travleing @ ~65 ft/sec. Jackson's hand and the football appear to be on a space/time intersection and what seemed like a ball destined for Chandler's chest becomes slowed and wobbly and crashes to the turf way short of the mark. Fans throw their fits and Fitz shoulders the blame. Maybe he never saw Jackson's tip or he has decided that he will shoulder all the criticism that comes his way. Either way, Fitz was careful with the ball, patient in waiting to see the field and decisive when he saw what he needed to see. Jackson just happened to make a nice play to get to the ball. This is why if I were on a jury I could not convict on the basis of eyewitness testimony alone. Millions of sets of eyes watched this play, inlcuding some paid analysts, and 99.9% of them think they saw evidence that Fitz was inexplicably indecisive and inherently inaccurate. The Bills have their 24 hour rule but we have nothing better to do footballwise so I'd like to think that I could convince some open minded Bills' fan at lest one, that my breakdown of the play at least plausible and likely 100% spot on. Anyways, time to let it go as we will soon have a new game to over analyze. Off tto Cleveland.

The reason Fitz did not throw the ball when everyone could see Chandler was open? Fitz couldn't see him because Tyson Jackson (and Eric Pears initially) was/were between him and Chandler during most of the roll out starting at the hash mark. The reason the ball hit the turf? Tyson Jackson deflected it ever so slightly as it passed by him and the trajectory changed in an almost imperceptible way. What was a slightly ascending throw, roughly parallel to the turf, was suddenly slowed and angled downward. It's tough to fault Fitz for mistakenly thinking he had cleared Jackson when Steve Beuerlein, most of the 70,000 in attendance and the millions watching at home didn't even consider Jackson to be a threat to the play and most of us continue to miss it even after watching countless replays over the last 4 days. Trust me, Tyson Jackson tipped this pass and all the Fitzteria over this one play is a sign that collectively we don't know wtf we are talking about. Too many fans are inclined to look for evidence of Fitz's defective play that they are seeing it in instances where it does not exist. I suppose this will be a season long theme.

Here it is just as simple. Losman and Edwards were good enough for 7 wins (even if they were tough to watch.) Fitz is way more productive than them. With the way the o-line has come together early and if they stay relatively healthy, 10 wins is a fair benchmark. If Fitzpatrick can't do his part to achieve that, then it's time for plan B. But, let's be fair, he's got a team around him now (apparently so), let's see where he can lead them.

Or the Bengals game from 2010 or the game for the Rams in his rookie year when Martin got knocked out.

Yes, he even stated that he wanted Fitz to spend less time looking away and a split second more to survey the field he came back around. He cited as the source of some of his ints when he reviewed every pass play from last year.

If you could, please rewatch the 1st attempt to Chandler. Play particular attention to Tyson Jackson who was being blocked by Pears. My theory is that Jackson was in between Fitz and Chandler right at the time Fitz got his shoulders turned after the play fake. Fitz kept rolling to clear him and Jackson kept driving to stay between, thus extending the play. Jackson saw Fitz getting ready to release the ball and extended his left arm in a swiping motion. He got enough of the ball to send it off course and slow it down slightly but not enough where the 99.9+% of the people watching could notice it. If this is so, it eliminates the play that had everyone looking for a rope and a tree. Tyson Jackson was celebrating at the end of this play and for a #3 overall pick, he rarely has anything to celebrate.

Thank you. I thought I was the only person to think that. I thought maybe Fitz was waiting for Chandler to hit a certain position but after watching it again I think he was trying to clear Tyson Jackson who was being blocked by Pears on that play but was managing to stay between Fitz and Chandler. Fitz kept rolling to clear him, possibly because he didn't want to throw a lollipop on a windy day and preferred to stick all his throws. Anyway, watch Jackson's left arm as he anticipates Fitz's throw and takes a swipe at the ball traveling by. I am 98% sure he grazed it, probably on the top, based on the trajectory of the ball and the "look at me" celebration he was doing afterward that was shown on the Jumbotron. With the ball traveling at ~60 ft/sec there will be no way to see such a slight contact on a replay it unless it's the super slow motion video that CBS, of course, did not provide. Fitz did not say any different because either he did not notice it because his eyes were focused downfield or he has decided to own any and all criticism, fair or unfair, that comes his way with sort of a big shoulders, anti-Cutler philosophy.

Oh, ok, got you. As these were very close but rather mediocre scores, I used the quotes to suggest that we were seeing virtual ties here. Should have use the quotes for both.

Not sure what you mean but these are subzero numbers here.

Did you? In 2010 Ryan was higher @ -3.6 to -9.3. Cutler was "higher" in 2011 @ -3.5 to -6.2. Thus, my statement that "Cutler and Fitz have not been that different over the last two years. Both have not been good enough. I like Fitz's chances of getting better, though. It's more about attitude than talent as the huge list of 1st round busts attests to."

The bolded number is the DVOA - defense adjusted value over avderage. Here's a link to 2011. Basically, Cutler's draft round and supposedly great QB metrics have many here fooled. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2011 As for making tables and spreadsheets work in these forums, I too am no better than average.

Cutler and Fitz have not been that different over the last two years. Both have not been good enough. I like Fitz's chances of getting better, though. It's more about attitude than talent as the huge list of 1st round busts attests to. As to the posts here that imply that avg yards per atttempt is some magically meaningful stat, do the math and see what happens when you factor in the sacks a QB takes. Dropping back is an attempted pass play and taking a sack (or maybe avoiding.them) is mostly on the QB. Taking sacks does nothing to QB passer rating nor average gain per attempt. Avoiding them by getting rid of the ball, hopefully without a pick but usually under duress, will hurt completion % and yards per attempt and thus QB passer rating. Did we learn nothing from Flutie vs. Johnson?

Football Outsiders 2010 R.Fitzpatrick BUF 223 23 139 24 -3.6% 27 -6.4% 48.3 21 466 2,851 2,676 23 3 3 15 58.1% 2/25 D.Stanton DET 174 24 84 28 12.2% 12 0.0% 42.4 28 123 722 840 4 1 1 3 59.5% 0/0 S.Wallace CLE 151 25 114 25 11.3% 14 5.8% 38.4 34 107 661 749 4 0 0 2 63.4% 1/14 K.Collins TEN 150 26 218 23 -3.2% 26 0.4% 58.7 14 290 1,706 1,720 14 1 3 8 58.2% 3/60 C.McCoy CLE 146 27 84 27 -1.9% 25 -5.8% 45.1 25 245 1,465 1,461 6 1 0 9 61.3% 1/38 D.McNabb WAS 133 28 58 30 -6.9% 29 -9.3% 38.9 33 509 3,078 2,690 14 8 0 13 58.5% 3/48 M.Stafford DET 91 29 80 29 3.0% 21 1.2% 58.1 15 100 504 646 6 0 1 1 59.4% 1/27 J.Cutler CHI 81 30 54 31 -8.5% 30 -9.3% 48.5 19 484 2,930 2,552 23 4 5 16 60.4% 7/140 Football Outsiders 2011 J.Campbell OAK 340 17 326 17 19.8% 6 18.5% 54.3 19 169 1,151 1,348 6 1 0 3 61.0% 3/40 C.Palmer OAK 296 18 298 18 2.5% 15 2.7% 62.6 12 344 2,627 2,145 13 1 1 16 61.2% 3/36 R.Fitzpatrick BUF 189 19 194 20 -6.2% 26 -6.1% 50.5 21 591 3,702 3,383 24 4 1 23 62.5% 11/236 T.Jackson SEA 161 20 61 25 -6.0% 25 -9.2% 37.7 33 495 2,790 2,719 14 3 4 9 60.8% 5/135 J.Cutler CHI 157 21 207 19 -3.5% 21 -1.0% 59.7 14 339 2,140 1,867 13 4 2 7 58.1% 3/35 M.Moore MIA 135 22 124 22 -5.7% 24 -6.1% 56.7 17 388 2,266 2,185 16 6 6 9 60.6% 6/110 D.Orlovsky IND 121 23 36 26 -2.2% 19 -8.5% 49.9 22 204 1,118 1,258 6 4 3 4 64.2% 2/21 K.Orton 2TM 97 24 170 21 -5.4% 23 -1.1% 49.8 23 262 1,686 1,483 9 0 2 9 60.4% 3/32

Mistimed, misfired (accuracy) or misread. I think we saw one of each type. When watching the broadcast replay of the 1st interception, I thought Stevie ran a lazy route. It looked like an out that was run with a bend rather than a driving break. Sure the throw was late but I think Revis was eating up the cushion before the release. Alas, I have no inclination to rewatch it to see if this impression would still remain the same. By the way, if true, I can see where having a having a gimpy groin might cause a receiver to run a pattern that way. I think the 3rd pick is typical in the sense that it was a presnap read that went awry. Teams know Fitz does alot of his decision making presnap so they can bait him into thinking he can make certain throws. What looked like press/man coverage became roll/zone and Fitz did not look to see if his presnap read was legit. It's like the zone/blitz pick that Pace made last year. Personally, I do not think the Bills defense does enough of this type of presnap disguise of coverage. By the way, the Bills defense forced three fumbles that the Jets managed to recover. That's pretty much a matter of luck. It's a much different discussion if they went the other way. Hey, the Bills lost to a good team on the road. They played like crap in all phases of the game but were still within two possessions of the lead with 5+ minutes to go and were attempting an onside kick. No need to panic. Losing to the Chiefs at home would be a legit reason to pull the alarm and yell "Fire!!" But, as of now, I am still in on 10 and 6.

Wade panicked and sent Christie in with time on the clock and plays to run. End of story,.

I would like to see the history on this but Fitz has lead a team to victory after having trailed by 18 or more points 4 times in his career. It's the same confidence and risk taking mentality that leads ot blowout losses like they had in Dallas last year. It's the flipside of the same coin.

I think Fitz is very happy with his All-American wife and mother of his three, soon to be 4, children. I don't care about the picks he threw in blow out losses. I don't care about the chances he takes. I think he sees a chasing defender with his back turned to him as an an opportunity. I would just want him (and his teammates) to be better in the clutch. There's a fistful of failures in tight games against good teams, some of which were on him (Ravens, Chiefs, Steelers, Bengals, Giants, Jets, etc.) This is where he/they need to be better.

It's these message boards. We can now microanalyze everythiig that happens and then have group discussions about how we "feel" and if we have "faith' in Chan anymore or if ithas any meaning at all.

I think the Bills have to design more time into their passing game. A DL can do a two count and throw an arm up with a good chance he can tip a ball. If he does that on a 4 sec play he is liable to be totally ineffective on the rush and get a punch to his exposed midsection. Pump fake, roll out, flea flicker, max protect. Use something to make the defense fear having to defend for more than 2.5 seconds. It's tough to do any of those things with an empty backfield though.

Ranking defenses by total yards allowed is a horrible, repeat horrible, way to do it.

I was thinking that he was near the end because he couldn't control distance and direction any longer. I am very happy to have been wrong. The field position formula is looking good. It actually worked well against the Steelers for all but 2 plays. Spiller's fumble and the 3rd and 9, max protect completion from the 2.

Top ten.

I think they keep 5 so all the names discussed as "bubble" players get cut. Maybe Easley gets on the practice squad and gets his chance when the inevitable injuries strike. It's not likely all the guys that get cut would be unavailble should they be needed later on. The Bills shouldn't fret too much over which it may be. I like Naaman though. Something to be said about having such reliable hands. A dropped third down pass is much the same as a turnover because a 40 yard net punt has the same efffect as an interception deep down field followed by a tackle or going out of bounds.

I don't mind their programming too much. It's certainly not all sports and it's better described as "guy" talk. The parody of the "ESPN coverage of the the Tebow/Trash can story" this morning was very funny, imo. Humor is like that, it doesn't work for everyone. But you would have to be well immersed in sports culture to "get it." There is less for the 3 to 7 drive time to talk about without actual, meaningful games going on. For consistently good to great local Bills/NFL talk, all the John Murphy Show programming is archived, so if you have access, you can play those back. These run 1:00 to 1:20 because the commercials are removed, if you can believe that. No doubt, if you tune in for any 20 or 30 minute stretch of time during the morning or afternoon shows, you could totally miss any of the actual "sports talk" they do. But I don't mind hearing talk about fatherhood, poking fun at sports culture, or pretending to have serious thoughts about things that don't really matter (much like professional sports, in general.) By the way, I like black olives on pizza as long as they are more roasted and are far from their waxy, out-of-the-jar incarnation.