JESSEFEFFER

Nice addition to the discussion. I would say that the 37.3% should be higher now. That the numbers Josh had that, with context applied, would have boosted that number. Before the draft we did not know if the athleticism Josh showed at Wyoming in the MWC would show up in the NFL against the best athletes the sport has to offer and he showed up. There was objective evidence in the numbers that Josh was better at the end of the year than the beginning. He did manage to win half the games he started and finished. These should boost his QBASE. If Aaron had said that he had a QBASE of 37.3 to start and now its 49.9 or whatever, I would have respected his opinion more. They did not ask and he did not volunteer the basis of his opinion after year 1.

Seen is the operative word. Is he looking at his raw stats or is he actually watching him play? Schopp did not ask him. The basis for his unchanged view of his projection into the NFL is the most interesting part of the opninion and Schopp let it go unanswered. Numbers need meaning and context. Josh's scramble runs were analytically more productive than any other QB's checkdown passes. No one completes 100% of them for over 10 ypa. Josh's TD runs limited his passing TDs. Is there any more value to a passing TD than a running TD? The factors listed in the OP absolutely make completion % a lower number. I would want Schatz to put these into some context (rookie year, depth of target, drops, spikes/throwaways, % throws under pressure.)

I am quite sure he has some basis for his opinion. That is his job, opnions based on numerical analysis. Schopp and Bulldog did not ask him for his reasons which would have made the interview more interesting, imo. As for "clickbait" I doubt it applies to a WGR interview and an article in NYUPSTATE by Ryan Talbot. Those links do Aaron Schatz no benefit. He's an interesting listen because his opinions, although just as flawed as those from anyone else, are at least based on something tangible.

I'll take a shot. We want to believe that Josh's improvement, the defenses' all around play and their 4 and 4 record at the close have the Bills starting the off season as a team in the middle third of the league. He's saying that defensive performance is more random, Josh doesn't have it in him and they really entered the off season as bottom dwelling team. Thus, all the offseason improvements, while he likes them, do not get them a shot into the upper third of the league.

Aaron was on WGR yesterday with an interesting position on Josh. He still does not "see" him as an NFL starting QB. Says he would like to see Bills fans rewarded but does not see Josh as likely to produce it. If I were doing the interview I'd have asked him about the basis for this, is it the numbers or some actual film review? IIRC, this was his predraft assessment based on his Wyoming stats and their correlation to historical projection and he's not bending it based on year 1 in the NFL. Assuming he is still focused on the numbers, I would have asked him what effect that the following would have on his numbers: 1) being the leader in depth to target 2) being amongst the top in dropped passes and throwaways/spikes 3) being near the top in throws under pressure I saw some Twitter chatter started by Bills reporters Sal Capaccio and Ryan Talbot. Here's the link to the latters' story: newyorkupstate " I-do-not-see-a-nfl-starting-qb-in-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-says-espns-aaron-schatz" I appreciate facts in any discussion and numbers are facts. But discussions need facts connected to meaning and context. It looks like if the Bills have a decent season, he already has an alternate explanation as to why it happened. I think Josh will be one of the alltime "scouts eyes and ears" vs. "raw analytics" cases in the NFL. Someone gets to tell the other side "I told you so."

Such a big difference when you do the ranking based on what they have done, what they might do in 2019 or for what you think they might do over the next 5 or 10 years. I don't think I could "mix" those ideas in any logical way. Edit: Maybe think of it like this: If they were all free agents and you had to sign them to a guaranteed, 6 year, 200 million dollar contract, what order do they go in? That's a mix of past, present and future considerations.

I do not think he was ever on the PS as his first year was either PUP or IR. He was on the gameday roster for 7 games as the #2. So, I think he is still elligible.

If he shows well and stays out of trouble he might still not make their roster but it would make an XFL gig more in play. Maybe with June Junes playing on the Houston team.

This is the United States of America, founded on people needing and seeking a new chance. He did well at Ol' Miss and their fans seem to wish him well and he did well in Denver to rehab knee and wrist surgeries and work he way to #2 on their depth chart. Then the Halloween thing happened and he crashed and burned again. He has "Fear None" tatooed on his arm and, while this may work for him on the field, he should really fear himself and the the poor judgement he has shown when challenged off it. I am rooting for him to make the most of his considerable talent and reward those that continue to believe in him. I think his arm talent and playing style make him interesting as a QB as do the local connection and well documented history of screwups, which as far as we know, have never caused harm to anyone other than himself. I hope he has sought some counseling because I think he will fail without it. Ultimately, as for the differing opinions soon to be expressed in this thread, you either believe in the possibilities of redemption or you don't.

I went back and watched the highlights of the game. The Bills offense with Allen was much more "dangerous" but Allen had a fumble and two picks to Darnold's one. Darnold hit that one deep pass to Anderson against really good coverage, the Bills got gashed by returns and had a FG blocked and missed another. For 58 minutes or so Allen looked much more like the QB a defense doesn't want to have to play, imo. The Jets got the lead at the end and Josh threw a bad int afterward, so I guess one could argue Darnold "marginally outplayed Allen" but I thought Josh showed more playmaking traits than Sam. These will be fun matchups to overanalyze for the next decade or so, hopefully.

I was thinking more like this as a comparison. Lots of these images out there when I searched so I am not the only one that sees the resemblance.

Steve tends to talk too much and deliver it too fast, his words get disconnected from his thoughts and he is left to ramble. He can end up saying Drew Brees when he means Drew Bledsoe, forget names of guys drafted a few weeks ago, start asking one question of a guest and end up switching to another midstream, etc. His story telling is much better because he doesn't need to express an opinion or think on the fly. As the narrator of a story he has probably told many times, he can be very good. Seriously, I worry about all those guys and CTE. Who can really say where and when that kind thing starts to show up and how it will progress. I still listen to their show as it does deliver some interesting Bills content and its better than nothing. Imo, there are very few people that can talk that much about anything without using a script and deliver it consistently well all the time.

He was at or near the top in dropped passes, spikes/throwaways and depth of target. All those things distort completion% to the bad and make it an abnormal metric for him. He is very good at short yardage/goal line situational QB runs whether a draw, reaching over the top or a power run with an assist from behind. So, TD passes are not such an important number. Seriously, I do not care how TDs are scored and I do not know why any Bills fan should. Given all that, my crystal ball predicts his completion % will be closer to 60%, with combined rushing and passing TDs around 30, total TOs around 18 and total passing yards between 3600 and 4000. The Bills offense will be closer to the middle of the pack but perform well in redzone situations and average 24+ points per game with any defensive or ST scoring being a bonus.

Josh Allen is getting very good at being Josh Allen and seems to be having a bunch of fun in the process.

It seemed most every Josh Allen scramble started with the Bills failing to block a line stunt. It's not like it was a slow process either. Blocks were beaten right at the snap. I wonder what the analytics say about that. Communication and attitude, I hope the new OL coach brings that to the group and maybe Mitch Morse can be the Kent Hull like leader they need.

I think he must still hold the record for consecutive TD receptions. I thought Jake Fisher would be good at the Butch Rolle route, he should teach him that.

I can almost hear those words said with Vin Scully's voice.

As he was near the top in both drops and throwaways, I just cut them in half which I thought might be close to the median as I do not have time to actually find what that might be. So I am only seeing what that looks like compared to Normal. So, I did not do that which you state that I did. Nice try though. And I would bet that 58.5 to 59.5% would be right in the range of normal for rookies.

I think a highlight reel of amazing, circus style catches from last year would be pretty short. I can't think of a top 3. Maybe start a thread: The Most Amazing Catches of the 2018 Bills Season!. Ask for nominees. Maybe someone can come up with a couple to refresh my memory. Crickets, I'd bet.

I think some of those you reference would be scored as a pbu. I don't think it can be both. it's one or the other, a drop or a pbu. At least that's my thinking. If it's in the receivers' hands and it gets ripped or knocked out before he can secure it, is that a drop or a pbu?

I'd like to know his stats in relation to balls thrown away and clocked ( I think they count.) It seems he had more than typical situations where he escaped the pocket and threw the ball away prior to going out-of-bounds. Actually, there should have been a couple more of those types of throws rather than throwing into coverage and getting picked. As a % it seems like it was higher with him than most. Maybe TransPlanted knows. Wait, I found his thread on page 2. He was very high in throwaways/spikes. Looks to be as big or even bigger contributor to his low completion% than the drops. His high drop % ( lets say half) accounts for ~ 3 points of his "incompletion % and his higher throaways/spikes account for another 3 or 4 percentage points of it. All of a sudden the rookie lowest 52.5% looks like a phoney issue. Nice work TransplantedBillsFan.

Supply and demand? Lots of WRs with draftable grades. Sills is one also.

Sure you have. I think he's related to Bonhomme Richard. Distant cousin maybe.

Unfortunatley, if placing an over/under bet on a team's season win total you 1) must make the wager before games are played and 2) do not know how many games the year 1 rookie will start in year 2. Do bad teams get better draft picks? Do bad teams tend to draft the better QBs? Do bad teams with rookie QBs tend to correlate to more losses? Do improving QBs correlate to more wins? Do teams with salary cap space correlate to improving rosters? Do improving rosters correlate to more wins? I do not think any of these is an ice cream consumption to murder rate correlation. Yeah and I think EJ could have gone at least 5 and 7.

Not signed by the Colts post rookie camp. I'd think they would want to take 4 into OTAs and preseason training camp so something may still be in the works. I haven't read one way or the other on it.