JESSEFEFFER

Here with this Simms piece, as with the Super Cade story and the Mother's Day video that Josh and Matt made, Josh is getting very good at being Josh Allen. Very comfortable, very confidant and willing to connect one on one with people in very different circumstances. Now, if gets to be as good on the field as off it, we will be in for another Golden Era of Bills football. It might happen.

His low completion % is a distortion resulting from: 1) Being near the top in % dropped passes 2) Being near the top in % spikes and throwaways 3) Leading the league in depth of target 4) Being near the top in throws under pressure 5) Being a rookie 6) Lacking enough accuracy on some of his throws (Not hitting his spot or improper timing, route running or reads? We rarely know for sure.) Because of the predraft assessments, for some #6 is the only one that matters. The low comp% confirms what they think they already knew. It's the only one they want to consider and therefore no need to look any further. If #1 & 2 (objectively quantifiable if evenly applied) and #3 and 4 (less so) are considered his completion% would look more like other rookies which is TBF's major conclusion and the basis of this thread title. It makes sense to me.

You can say this and it may be somewhat true of the talking heads in media land. But, there are stories of great players like Thurman and Aaron Rodgers having long held grudges regarding their draft experience, for instance. Apparently, they can hang on some perceived disrespect for a long, long time. Josh's story is full of doubters at every turn, right up until the draft and it still continues. Being labeled a "parody of an NFL QB prospect" is about as harsh as could be. I'd bet he's heard that and all the rest of the chatter. The guy that wrote letters to every FBS school there is asking them to review his JUCO video and for a scholarship, but only got 2 offers sounds motivated by more than just a big payday.

I remember an intentional grounding call that upset me quite a bit.

In a curious set of circumstances, ESPN and Football Outsiders formed some sort of alliance. One product of that is Total QBR and I would assume Aaron Schatz had something to do with its creation. Well, here is the 2018 result with Josh right there with Baker and ahead of some bonafide, highly paid NFL starters. He could have said that he doesn't see a "traditional" NFL starting QB or a "prototypical" one. I could agree with that. He could give him credit for improved play or say his development as a passer is paramount to his future success and it has a long way to go. Agreed. He could have credited Josh with finding ways to be effective for his team in the midst of a poor, unstable supporting cast as many of us do. I just found it odd that he is seemingly unmoved from his harsh, predraft assessment. Josh's rookie year should have moved the dial, imo. 21 Nick Mullens, SF 5.9 23.6 -2.8 1.8 29.0 334 56.2 54.2 22 Matthew Stafford, DET 1.7 25.8 4.2 4.2 49.2 647 50.9 53.8 23 Baker Mayfield, CLE 9.4 34.8 0.9 3.6 51.5 580 55.7 53.6 24 Josh Allen, BUF 2.9 -1.8 24.1 3.5 35.6 461 52.3 52.2 25 Eli Manning, NYG 2.3 30.2 2.0 2.4 54.8 684 51.2 51.6 26 Alex Smith, WSH 4.6 17.8 5.5 2.9 35.0 422 53.8 49.4 27 Derek Carr, OAK -1.2 27.3 2.5 0.2 50.8 669 49.3 49.0 28 Sam Darnold, NYJ -3.0 23.5 3.3 -1.1 36.6 510 47.9 48.4 29 Case Keenum, DEN -4.0 26.9 4.2 3.5 50.6 685 47.9 46.9 30 Blake Bortles, JAX -8.6 9.3 11.6 -1.6 30.5 515 44.1 45.8 RK PLAYER PTS ADDED PASS RUN PENALTY TOTAL EPA QB PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR 31 Lamar Jackson, BAL -1.2 6.6 13.8 0.4 27.7 338 48.7 45.1 32 Ryan Tannehill, MIA -18.0 -6.3 3.6 0.8 13.4 363 33.1 35.4 33 Josh Rosen, ARI -35.3 -13.6 3.3 1.2 7.9 491 26.6 25.9

Pissing away 2 years in the NFL and millions of dollars that he can never get back. One of the interesting things about him is the way he comes back after major setbacks, be they of his own creation or not. He gets kicked off his high school team two consecutive years @ Red Lion followed by two record setting years at St. Joes. Injured then kicked off the Clemson team, he wins an NJCC championship at Last Chance U. Arrested after the Buffalo night club incident and putting his future in doubt, he leads Ol' Miss to their best season in 40+ years. He blows out his knee, misses the Senior Bowl, gets disinvited from the NFL Combine, ruptures a wrist ligament shortly into his private workout, and gets drafted as Mr. Irrelevant. After that disastrous 5 months, he manages to rehab and work himself into the #2 QB at Denver over the next 16. Then came Halloween. The altercation at the party was probably the angry, ready to fight the world version of Chad. The trespassing incident was maybe knuckleheaded Chad, less ill-tempered but more legally and career damaging. At least he did not fight the vacuum cleaner tube wielding homeowner or the police that arrested him. Call that progress, I suppose. Such a history of screwing up and then making a comeback of sorts. Big personal flaws matched by a big drive to not give up and to work his way back. I'd bet the Colts have clauses for random drug tests and regular counseling sessions in his contract as they supposedly have some sort of zero tolerance plan to keep him out of trouble. I hope it works because I'd really like to see his story have a better ending than the one he'd otherwise have.

I get why the Wyoming numbers lead to that projection. It's about the only thing I knew about Josh predraft. The Bills were going to get a QB and I did not want to have a favorite and then not get him so I didn't follow the predraft process. I did not even seek the highlight video until after the was the picked. The real issue I have is to suggest that nothing he did on the field in 2018 alters that projection. That seems just plain stubborn. Many anti Allen opinions became "He surprised me and did way more in year 1 than I thought he would. He has a chance to be a special QB." There are numbers that support that position and that's why I would have asked Schatz to offer more of the basis for his unchanged opinion.

It depends on when you choose to start the clock.

Yes you did. The Saturday hosts had it replayed in its entirety. I would have had different questions for Schatz and probed why his opinion was unchanged. There are numbers that support a brighter future than what was projected in 2018 prior to the draft. Being hopeful is nothing that warrants an apology. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies. – Andy Dufresne, The Shawshank Redemption

He is making an assumption based on a historical trend. Defensive production is more variant but he was too eager to assume it will regress. They lacked in the takeaway and redzone production departments. They could be BETTER if they improve in those areas.

Nice addition to the discussion. I would say that the 37.3% should be higher now. That the numbers Josh had that, with context applied, would have boosted that number. Before the draft we did not know if the athleticism Josh showed at Wyoming in the MWC would show up in the NFL against the best athletes the sport has to offer and he showed up. There was objective evidence in the numbers that Josh was better at the end of the year than the beginning. He did manage to win half the games he started and finished. These should boost his QBASE. If Aaron had said that he had a QBASE of 37.3 to start and now its 49.9 or whatever, I would have respected his opinion more. They did not ask and he did not volunteer the basis of his opinion after year 1.

Seen is the operative word. Is he looking at his raw stats or is he actually watching him play? Schopp did not ask him. The basis for his unchanged view of his projection into the NFL is the most interesting part of the opninion and Schopp let it go unanswered. Numbers need meaning and context. Josh's scramble runs were analytically more productive than any other QB's checkdown passes. No one completes 100% of them for over 10 ypa. Josh's TD runs limited his passing TDs. Is there any more value to a passing TD than a running TD? The factors listed in the OP absolutely make completion % a lower number. I would want Schatz to put these into some context (rookie year, depth of target, drops, spikes/throwaways, % throws under pressure.)

I am quite sure he has some basis for his opinion. That is his job, opnions based on numerical analysis. Schopp and Bulldog did not ask him for his reasons which would have made the interview more interesting, imo. As for "clickbait" I doubt it applies to a WGR interview and an article in NYUPSTATE by Ryan Talbot. Those links do Aaron Schatz no benefit. He's an interesting listen because his opinions, although just as flawed as those from anyone else, are at least based on something tangible.

I'll take a shot. We want to believe that Josh's improvement, the defenses' all around play and their 4 and 4 record at the close have the Bills starting the off season as a team in the middle third of the league. He's saying that defensive performance is more random, Josh doesn't have it in him and they really entered the off season as bottom dwelling team. Thus, all the offseason improvements, while he likes them, do not get them a shot into the upper third of the league.

Aaron was on WGR yesterday with an interesting position on Josh. He still does not "see" him as an NFL starting QB. Says he would like to see Bills fans rewarded but does not see Josh as likely to produce it. If I were doing the interview I'd have asked him about the basis for this, is it the numbers or some actual film review? IIRC, this was his predraft assessment based on his Wyoming stats and their correlation to historical projection and he's not bending it based on year 1 in the NFL. Assuming he is still focused on the numbers, I would have asked him what effect that the following would have on his numbers: 1) being the leader in depth to target 2) being amongst the top in dropped passes and throwaways/spikes 3) being near the top in throws under pressure I saw some Twitter chatter started by Bills reporters Sal Capaccio and Ryan Talbot. Here's the link to the latters' story: newyorkupstate " I-do-not-see-a-nfl-starting-qb-in-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-says-espns-aaron-schatz" I appreciate facts in any discussion and numbers are facts. But discussions need facts connected to meaning and context. It looks like if the Bills have a decent season, he already has an alternate explanation as to why it happened. I think Josh will be one of the alltime "scouts eyes and ears" vs. "raw analytics" cases in the NFL. Someone gets to tell the other side "I told you so."

Such a big difference when you do the ranking based on what they have done, what they might do in 2019 or for what you think they might do over the next 5 or 10 years. I don't think I could "mix" those ideas in any logical way. Edit: Maybe think of it like this: If they were all free agents and you had to sign them to a guaranteed, 6 year, 200 million dollar contract, what order do they go in? That's a mix of past, present and future considerations.

I do not think he was ever on the PS as his first year was either PUP or IR. He was on the gameday roster for 7 games as the #2. So, I think he is still elligible.

If he shows well and stays out of trouble he might still not make their roster but it would make an XFL gig more in play. Maybe with June Junes playing on the Houston team.

This is the United States of America, founded on people needing and seeking a new chance. He did well at Ol' Miss and their fans seem to wish him well and he did well in Denver to rehab knee and wrist surgeries and work he way to #2 on their depth chart. Then the Halloween thing happened and he crashed and burned again. He has "Fear None" tatooed on his arm and, while this may work for him on the field, he should really fear himself and the the poor judgement he has shown when challenged off it. I am rooting for him to make the most of his considerable talent and reward those that continue to believe in him. I think his arm talent and playing style make him interesting as a QB as do the local connection and well documented history of screwups, which as far as we know, have never caused harm to anyone other than himself. I hope he has sought some counseling because I think he will fail without it. Ultimately, as for the differing opinions soon to be expressed in this thread, you either believe in the possibilities of redemption or you don't.

I went back and watched the highlights of the game. The Bills offense with Allen was much more "dangerous" but Allen had a fumble and two picks to Darnold's one. Darnold hit that one deep pass to Anderson against really good coverage, the Bills got gashed by returns and had a FG blocked and missed another. For 58 minutes or so Allen looked much more like the QB a defense doesn't want to have to play, imo. The Jets got the lead at the end and Josh threw a bad int afterward, so I guess one could argue Darnold "marginally outplayed Allen" but I thought Josh showed more playmaking traits than Sam. These will be fun matchups to overanalyze for the next decade or so, hopefully.

I was thinking more like this as a comparison. Lots of these images out there when I searched so I am not the only one that sees the resemblance.

Steve tends to talk too much and deliver it too fast, his words get disconnected from his thoughts and he is left to ramble. He can end up saying Drew Brees when he means Drew Bledsoe, forget names of guys drafted a few weeks ago, start asking one question of a guest and end up switching to another midstream, etc. His story telling is much better because he doesn't need to express an opinion or think on the fly. As the narrator of a story he has probably told many times, he can be very good. Seriously, I worry about all those guys and CTE. Who can really say where and when that kind thing starts to show up and how it will progress. I still listen to their show as it does deliver some interesting Bills content and its better than nothing. Imo, there are very few people that can talk that much about anything without using a script and deliver it consistently well all the time.

He was at or near the top in dropped passes, spikes/throwaways and depth of target. All those things distort completion% to the bad and make it an abnormal metric for him. He is very good at short yardage/goal line situational QB runs whether a draw, reaching over the top or a power run with an assist from behind. So, TD passes are not such an important number. Seriously, I do not care how TDs are scored and I do not know why any Bills fan should. Given all that, my crystal ball predicts his completion % will be closer to 60%, with combined rushing and passing TDs around 30, total TOs around 18 and total passing yards between 3600 and 4000. The Bills offense will be closer to the middle of the pack but perform well in redzone situations and average 24+ points per game with any defensive or ST scoring being a bonus.

Josh Allen is getting very good at being Josh Allen and seems to be having a bunch of fun in the process.

It seemed most every Josh Allen scramble started with the Bills failing to block a line stunt. It's not like it was a slow process either. Blocks were beaten right at the snap. I wonder what the analytics say about that. Communication and attitude, I hope the new OL coach brings that to the group and maybe Mitch Morse can be the Kent Hull like leader they need.