Thurman#1

Agreed. He's always been really productive against us. I guarantee that didn't escape Belichick.

Their patchwork murdered our patchwork. Our whole team played bad, but the offense even worse that the D.

My guess is they aren't moving up in the first unless something genuinely bizarre happens, like Van Ness or Jalen Carter or Skoronski or Paris Johnson fall to 23 or near there. Beane values his picks and we've already got too few this year. And anyone on our roster with much trade value would leave yet another hole if traded. My guess is they trade back if anything. We'll see.

I do. But not in the first now, probably. Our safeties are old as Methuselah. We need to be thinking about replacements but also backups. Older guys get injured more.

I hope it's not RB. But for all those who wanted us not to keep Tremaine, congrats on getting what you wanted, but you also got a position of serious need. We are going to have to use some serious resources on MLB at some point. Could be FA, definitely. But it seems very possible we'll also be using one of our first three picks to fill the hole there long term. I wonder how high the Bills rank him. Certainly has freakish speed and size. But the Bills have showed that they want guys who can run routes really well and get separation. And other than with speed, I don't see him doing that. My guess is that the Bills rank him significantly lower than most do. In some systems he's going to be extremely valuable, is my guess. But I wonder how OBD feels. I think they want a guy who can get open at all three levels.

Right. Teams are "thrilled" when a back runs for 4.6 YPC against them, as Singletary does. They get all warm and fuzzy. You see DCs posting those stats on Instagram, when RBs get 4.6 per carry on them.

No, and that's dumb. On the face of it that's a conclusion that simply doesn't follow from the facts. What that shows very clearly is that you're so desperate to make a point that you'll use any evidence, even irrelevant evidence, even a complete lack of evidence to try unsuccessfully to make your point. It only speaks to your extreme confirmation bias. Again, did you hear all about our interest in Connor McGovern. If your logic had any basis at all, that would have proved that nobody was interested in Connor McGovern. Again, says more - far more - about your confirmation bias than it does about Devin Singletary. The actual reason we do not hear about any teams that are interested in signing him are ... well, we have no idea. There are almost an infinite number of possible reasons. They are many, they are various and until we get evidence, they are guesswork of the absolute purest kind. Again, you haven't a clue whether or not he pursued. For all you know his girlfriend is from Chicago. There is zero good evidence - right now at least - that they didn't go after him. Absence of evidence is NOT evidence of absence. It simply ... is ... not. They didn't get him. That's what we know. You can't believe we couldn't have done better? Well, I disagree. I like him but not that much, but who knows, maybe your're right. Time will tell.

Wouldn't have minded Foreman at all. But maybe Beane was all over that. We won't know unless there are some leaks about it or Beane shares regrets or something along those lines.

If it tells you that, that's because you're making invalid conclusions from insufficient data. All it can legitimately tell you right now is that he's not signed yet. What that means will need a lot more time and data to figure out. Oh, and as for various things people have said in this thread about how much the OL is responsible for our run problems, there's two stats to look at that address that. Football Outsiders has two stats called Adjusted Line Yards and RB yards. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/help/article/adjusted-line-yards There's a comprehensive explanation at that link, but basically they statistically separate yards the line is responsible for from the yards the RB is responsible for. Doing so perfectly is not possible, of course. But their methodology makes a ton of sense and generally does put fit the eye test as well as any stat ever does. Generally, if the RB yards are not much higher than the Adj. Line Yards, the blocking is responsible for more of that team's productivity in the run game than the RBs are. So, if you subtract Adj. Line Yards from RB yards, the higher the quotient, the more the RBs rather than the OL is responsible for any success. Again, doesn't mean the running attack is good. Just that the RB is more responsible for any success than the OL. The Bills quotient was 6th highest in the league last year. It was more about the RBs than the OL in Buffalo in terms of who was more responsible for the yards they actually got.

You do know that more free agents will be signed after than have been signed so far, right? Whether you like it or not, it's a poor argument. If he hasn't been signed in August and September, it will at that time be a very good argument. Now, though, it's just bad.

Jeez, this is getting sad, dude. You want me to explain the playoff game? In a Singletary thread? Including apparently expecting me to explain how the Bills DL sucked while missing its two best players? Yeah, sorry, not going to do all that. You'll have to figure that out yourself. Though, I'm not hopeful. Extremely quick version: the whole Bills team sucked, they looked like they were absolutely emotionally drained from seeing Hamlin die and all the rest of the chaos this season. As for whether the blame was mostly on Singletary or the line, yeah, Singletary went 6 for 25 in that game. Which is not bad. Whereas Cook went 5 for 13. Allen was 8 for 26. But you're going to argue the Bills OL was good and Singletary was bad? Sorry again, dude, that is too obvious to require much explanation. Everyone was bad in that game. But the OL had a large large share of the blame. You're just continuously wrong here, and not willng to admit it. No, I didn't hear of Singletary visiting any teams. I also didn't hear Connor McGovern visit any teams, including us. It's not an opinion that you don't have a clue whether any teams are interested. It's a simple fact. Whether or not you get that.\ We've got a starting RB now in Cook. And if we bring back Singletary - not saying we will, but if we do - we'll have another, though my guess is that this year Cook will get more carries even if Singletary does come back. Honestly, you're just throwing out arguments at this point that don't make much sense. I'm not promising to answer another, though I'll take a quick look.

Oh, and Allen is running so much and taking so many hits for several reasons, one of which is that a QB run gives you a one-man advantage, which an RB run does not. It's easier. That's surely a great deal of the reason they call lots of QB runs despite having RBs who are often successful when they run. Not to mention that many of his runs come from scrambles that turn into runs. And Singletary does indeed rely on quickness and making guys miss. That's why he is consistently in the top four in the NFL of forcing missed tackles. 2021 7th at missed tackles per attempt %age https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-most-elusive-running-backs-2021-season 2022 5th at missed tackles per attempt %age https://www.rotoballer.com/fantasy-football-running-back-sleepers-missed-tackles-2022/995606#Missed_Tackles_Forced_Data (see graph) 2019 2nd at missed tackles per attempt %age "[Singletary] forced 0.25 missed tackles per attempt, second-best in the league. " https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-backfield-rankings-all-32-running-back-units-entering-the-2020-nfl-season 2022 6th at broken+missed tackles forced %age https://www.fantasypros.com/2022/07/rb-broken-plus-missed-tackles-forced-percentage-analysis-2022-fantasy-football-javonte-williams-elijah-mitchell-ezekiel-elliott/ Your idea that he can't force missed tackles, that, "that is not going to happen against most NFL defensive players" is just plain wrong.

Yeah, that's a straw man and a wild exaggeration. Could you please point out to me where I said that "it's all on the line"? No, you can't, because I didn't say that. If you want to answer me, reply to what I actually said. As for me explaining , sure, I'll explain it when you explain how you know that "no other teams are interested." Are you Singletary? His agent? His mother? I presume not. So you haven't a clue, anymore than I do. But I didn't pretend I did. What you know is that he hasn't signed a contract. And there are many possible reasons for that, most particularly money disagreements and the teams trying to wait guys out to drop their prices. Hundreds more players will be signed. Singletary could easily be one of them. They do need another starting level RB. Perhaps even two. Re-signing Singletary for a salary that they could both agree on would absolutely provide one.

Well, if you have picked out 5 particular players and without getting any of them you decide the Bills have failed, you've pretty much decided they can't be successful in your eyes. I'd grade your list as unsuccessful, myself. A success in my opinion won't be known till the season. The rest of FA is likely to be just what everyone should have expected when looking at our cap condition. A bunch of low- to mid-level guys. That's what it's been so far. I'd expect more of the same. This is dumb. Beane's draft record being called "awful" says a lot more about you than it does about him. He hasn't been great. But he's been good. That's a significant part of the reason we won 13 games.

That was the Bills DL with probably their two best players missing, Mr. Miller and Mr. Jones. The Bengals also had problems, but we didn't have the guys to take advantage of their problems that week. Worth remembering, not to mention that we'd had a guy die on the field. The whole Bills team was really off, they looked emotionally spent. The Bills D allowed the Bengals to score their average. While the Bills O scored ten points less than the average points the Bengals allowed. Yet somehow folks here only want to talk about the defense. The whole team was bad. But the offense was absolutely awful.

Yeah, um, he's got 10 first downs and one TD on 3rd down and 1-3 yards this year, behind that OL that isn't great. Five attempts the year before that, for 42 yards, another TD and three first downs. For his career, he's got two carries on 4th and 1-3 and on both he got enough for first downs, though one was actually a TD instead. For his career, 35 attempts at 3rd and 1-3 and 24 first downs. Again, behind that line. He does lose a lot of carries because Allen is so good and so tough and running Allen means you have a man advantage. But Singletary is pretty good at it, though behind that line.

Inarguably is a bit strong. But yeah, probably a bit above average. He's always among the leaders in missed tackles and he does very well at YPA despite an OL that is probably below average. He's a good player. Not great, but good. Wouldn't be surprised to see them bring him back, based largely on what the price ends up being. You don't need to be fast. You need to be effective. Motor is effective.

I am glad that you have a rich and interesting dream life.

I see. Fair enough. I just get sick of the "He said something nice about the guy so it must be lies because the player is my favorite scapegoat," crowd. Having said that, I'd disagree with you in your characterization of what Beane said. The positives weren't just great teammate, hard worker stuff. They were specific. And the negatives weren't fell a bit short this year but room to improve, either. Here's the quotation: “We honestly didn’t think that we would play him game one,” General Manager Brandon Beane said. “He got himself there, but we got there without all the reps that you need as a veteran. Like, I wouldn’t have wanted to put Dion Dawkins out there without all those reps. So what I saw in Spencer is a guy, the second half the season that played better than the first half of the season. “I got a lot of confidence in him. He’s maturing, he’s understanding the league, a lot different type of pass rusher he’s having to block here than what he saw at Northern Iowa. So, I would ask people that are critical of him – give him some due. I thought Spencer was showing an arrow up, but again, we’re not going to give him a roster spot. We’re going to bring in competition, the best we can and I expect him to answer the bell.” That's more positive than you're implying. It's saying not just that we think a lot of his problems were injury- and time-off-related, but that he improved over the season and specifics in how. And the only negative, really was that his spot isn't guaranteed in any way, we'll bring in competition.

Beane is a very candid GM. He has no problem expressing frustration with players, none. Can we lay this dumb trope to rest? I would expect him to express dissatisfaction in a way that's not impolite or personal ... if that's what he actually meant. He's done it many times before. When he expresses satisfaction in a very specific way, it's because it is what he means. He'd have had no problems saying something along the lines of, "He knows he's not playing at a level that we expect. He's very aware of this and he's not happy himself with how last season went. We expect him to work hard and improve. We know he's a hard worker and should improve. But we do expect yadda yadda yadda." He's done this many times. If dissatisfied, I'd expect him to say something along those lines. The fact that he was very specific in his praise tells me and should tell everyone that he means it. You'll notice he also didn't say, "We don't think we need to bring in any competition for him. He will be our starting RT for the next ten years," either. He didn't feel that and didn't say it. He says what he means about our players. Politely, of course, but he gets his point across.

He is a top GM. But what he did so far is solidly decent. Some good smart signings. Getting under the cap was something pretty much all of us knew would happen and knew how as well. This is no magic trick. Solid moves, a lot of grinding. I don't see reason to be much more optimistic than you were a week ago. But a week ago there was excellent reason to be optimistic. The end of the season was crushing, but next year has looked good pretty much as soon as you got over that Cincy loss.

Let's see, 13-3, 11-6 and 13-3 the last three years. Yeah, it is working well so far. It's always awkward when someone tries sarcasm and gets it pointed out that what they said was actually correct. And that's what happened here. Could have been better, of course, but yes, it's working out well. And yes, this team will live and die with Allen as it should. They should put together a solid run game, but they don't need to spend a bunch of money on a bellcow. that's not how the league works anymore, with few exceptions who haven't won SBs lately.

Excuse me, sir, the 1980s are on the line for you. They're asking you to come back home. That's a slight exaggeration, of course. It's really the early oughties you have to go back to. But you only have to look at recent Super Bowl teams to know that you simply don't need a guy like this anymore. There might be areas where a change of philosophy would do us good. Going back to the era of the work horse back is not one of those areas. There really is zero reason to think this is part of our problem. Zero. This has been said a million times here, but since 2008 there have been three SB-winning teams with 1000 yard backs. That's three out of fifteen. None in the last six years. Sorry, man, but the game has changed. Live in the past if you must, but people will notice that you're not really up to date.

Yes, we could. No, it's wildly unlikely. "For some reason ..." and then no reason is given. I'll give you a hint. The reason is that you like the idea. What you have there is a case of confirmation bias.

I've never seen it, and I'd guess it's new. I bet they get away with it because though he has announced his retirement, he hasn't yet filed the official papers. Remember Eric Wood announcing his retirement and then trying to walk it back awkwardly because it worked out differently financially to have the Bills give him an injury settlement and release him before he retired?