Thurman#1

It's not their philosophy to create a window. Their goal is to be like the Pats, like the Steelers, the teams that are there every year. They've said that every single time they're asked. If there's a window here, no reason to think it's not a fifteen-year window for the length of Allen's career. Yeah, the money situation is nice. But if they're good enough this year to challenge for a title - far from a sure thing, it'll depend on Allen's improvement, on staying healthy, on significant OL improvement as they gel and so on, but if they are ready, this ought to be the first of many years. They're acting like they think it could happen this year. Great. But they show no sign of giving up their long-term goals for short-term opportunities, and that's smart. I expect them to draft with the hope of getting guys who contribute quickly but the expectation of getting guys who will be here for a while. They're building a machine for the long-term.

And Brady had .... oh wait. I'm with Bangarang on this. It's not a great excuse. There are plenty of exceptions. And Brees hasn't by any definition had great receivers through most of his career. Brees was a great QB far before Thomas became a Saint. Who did Brett Favre have the year he was with Minnesota and they lost the conference championship to the Saints? He made Sidney Rice look good, but is Sidney Rice an elite #1? Or the year he was with the Jets and the Jets looked like title contenders till Favre's injury? Cotchery and Coles? Please. Same with Green Bay. He made decent WRs look good, mostly. How about Roethlisberger? Hines Ward was no "#1 elite WR." He had some good WRs on and off, but didn't need one. There are plenty of exceptions. Joe Montana won two of his Super Bowls before Jerry Rice got there. The first Lombardi his WRs were Dwight Clark and Freddie Solomon. In the 2nd championship, he had Dwight Clark, Renaldo Nehemiah, and Freddie Solomon. No receiver had more than 880 yards. Great QBs don't need great WRs. It helps an awful lot if they have them of course, but it's not an absolute necessity by any means. If anything, great QBs create WRs who look like they're elite until and unless they leave that team.

No, you're right, "neither YAC nor throwing open is anything close to be the most important things about successful qbs." But is it an extremely helpful thing that can make a QB and a reciever more dangerous? Well, yeah, it is. And this is a very old point your bring up, but to review, nobody said Tyrod didn't throw over the middle, or nobody with a clue anyway. He threw over the short middle a lot. It was the deep and intermediate middle he didn't throw to, and yes that absolutely was important. You imply that throwing over the deep and intermediate middle would only have added the stats of an extra pass or two a game. And that's not why Tyrod's not being able to throw there was important. It was important for the same reason that Flutie became much more defensible when he became unable to throw the deep outs anymore with age. A deep out or two a game wouldn't have made a significant difference in production. But defenses saw Flutie wasn't throwing there and that allowed them to not cover that area, which let them far better cover the areas he really was throwing to. Same with Tyrod. Teams knew they didn't have to defend the deep and intermediate middle and so they were better able to cover the areas Tyrod was actually throwing to. The most important thing Allen could get better at? No, you're certainly right about that. But improving accuracy enough to hit guys on the run really would make a huge difference for him. My feeling is that he'll never be a wildly accurate QB. Accurate enough to play as well as the similarly inconsistently accurate Cam Newton did when he was playing at his best? Yeah, that seems a very reasonable ask, and would probably be enough to make Allen a successful QB and the Bills very dangerous. Agreed on the deep balls. He was quite a lot better at them his first year, so I think he's got a good shot at being a better deep ball thrower. I was particularly encouraged to see that he and Jordan Palmer were working on that this offseason already, and that Palmer had given Josh a different mindset on the deep balls. "Plant a flag with it and let the receiver run to it," or maybe "Put a pin in the map and let him run to it" ... something like that. Which means precisely that Palmer and Allen are working hard to have Allen throw guys open and advantaged rather than throwing to where they're running.

The Athletic has us picking up Akers in the third: "Round 3, pick 86: Cam Akers, running back, Florida State "In recent years, the Bills have taken a liking to veteran running backs. So far, they haven’t addressed the position in free agency, leaving only T.J. Yeldon behind Devin Singletary in the backfield. At this point, maybe it’s fair to consider Singletary the veteran presence at the position. He’s already looking like a potential star who also sets the right example off the field after having a year to learn from Frank Gore. "Both McDermott and Beane have talked about the need to have multiple backs. This is a deep class at running back, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them dip into the pool of talent at some point. While this may seem early to take a back, [my color and bolding] Florida State’s Cam Akers presents a lot of value. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had him as a third-round pick in his latest mock draft and he may be too good to pass up there. His attacking style could be a nice complement to the shifty, patient Singletary." https://theathletic.com/1700219/2020/03/25/bills-seven-round-mock-draft-how-free-agency-shook-things-up/ Now, see, this would make sense, if Akers is still there, which would be far from a sure thing. What really is all but a sure thing is that there'll be good value at RB in this draft through the 3rd, 4th and 5th round. It's a good seven-round mock, OL Wanogho in the 2nd, and edge rusher Willekes in the 4th, among others. That would be sweet.

Yes, I guess we agree on that. He was good, not very good. And was by no means a wasted pickup for the Bills. He was indeed a second round guy, but he absolutely did not live up to that, which was why the Pack cut him after his third year. Picking him in the second round was a mistake. Getting him on a backup contract as a free agent was a great move. So doing what I want us to do here, picking up a solid guy as an FA, was a great move for the Bills. And doing what you want us to do, drafting Kenny Davis, a guy who has what you and I both want in a platooning second RB, in the 2nd round, was a bad move by the Pack. Exactly.

No, I didn't forget Kenneth Davis. He's a perfect example of what I'm saying, that you don't need two very good backs. Davis was a good back. Not very good. He was good. You look at how he looked when he wasn't running behind the Bills absolutely excellent OL and spelling Thurman against defenses Thurman had already worn out, and it wasn't that great. 4.0 yards a carry in his first three years in the league in Green Bay. The Packers cut him after three years. The best offer he got was Buffalo where Thurman (already there for a year) was clearly going to get most of the snaps. I really liked Kenny Davis, he was an important part of that team, but he wasn't very good. Then in Buffalo, fresh later in the games and running behind Jim Ritcher, Kent Hull and the rest, suddenly he manages 4.4 YPC the rest of his career. A good back in a good situation. He was a fine back, but he wasn't among, say, the top ten to twenty backs in the league, a reasonable definition of "very good." If there is an injury, I would be perfectly happy with someone like Carlos Hyde, Spencer Ware, Devonta Freeman, Ty Montgomery, available good free agents sitting at home sweating as their projected contracts shrink, or a rookie like 247 pound AJ Dillon, who ran a 4.52 40 at the combine, or Lamical Perine, Joshua Kelley, Darrynton Evans, Scottie Phillips, or Ke'Shawn Vaughn. I'm plenty confident in Beane to look at that group and find a good solid pro running back, which is what the Bills need. He found Singletary in the 3rd, and this is a much better year for backs. And again, no, I'm with Beane, as a BPA guy. The guy absolutely desperate for a running back in the 2nd, whoever he is ... that's the guy who's desperate to fill his need. You know, the guy so desperate for an RB that he runs over to a thread about edge rushers and does his best to kidnap the thread so he can talk more about his 2nd round RB obsession. That's need. I could see them going RB in the 2nd if it's BPA, say if Taylor or Dobbins fell to us and was clearly the BPA. I just don't think that's very likely.

Yeah, their third and one guys are Allen and Singletary, who was terrific at converting third downs. Thing is, there's no rush. There are 6 or 7 FAs who are legitimately solid RBs sitting and watching their prices go down, and this year is a terrific year for RB depth. There are like 15 guys who look like they can play in the NFL right away.in this draft. It's a terrific year to be looking for a relief back. A guy like Dillon from BC weighs 247 and runs a 4.53 at the combine and was outrageously productive and this year 's RB class is so good he'll probably be available in the 4th. Lamical Perine would be great in the 3rd or 4th, or Joshua Kelley somewhere around the 4th now that he ran a 4.49 at the combine. Looks like 2020 will be looked back at as a great year for RBs, a year where even more than usual you could get starter-quality guys in the mid-rounds.

Who's Bennett? Denver signed Bennett? In any case, I didn't say there are no teams with two very good backs. I said there are FEW teams with two very good backs, and that is correct. As for why not an RB in round two, because you can get NFL-ready backs much later every year and even more so this year, a very good year for good RB prospects in rounds 3 - 5. I do agree with you that we need another good back, but you can get a good back pretty easily these days, later in the draft or cheap in FA a guy like Carlos Hyde or Dion Lewis, someone like that. That's how I guess they will do it. It's how they filled the RB gaps last year, a mid-round pick and some cheaper good but not great FAs. I wouldn't expect them to go RB any earlier than the 3rd, or probably the 4th. We'll see, I guess.

What Beane has actually showed is that he will spend lower draft picks to move up ... under certain circumstances. Specifically, he'll spend those lower picks if he has two picks in a round and can give one up while keeping a pick in each round. He's only emptied a round twice, both times when he's already had an extra pick earlier (he emptied the 4th round last year when he'd already made four picks in the first three rounds, and he emptied the 2nd round in 2018 when he'd already had two picks. I haven't looked, so correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we now have no extra picks to trade away this year without creating empty rounds. He has no history on doing this.

Thank you, man. Very sorry for the mistake in linkage. I corrected it in the OP. This has somehow become a Josh Allen thread, but it's not about him. It's about how well they've done the last week or two. It's thoughtful and detailed. People can disagree, but he makes a lot of sense, talking about Addison, Jefferson, Vernon Butler, and Josh Norman. Good value is his main idea here.

Two very good ones is a bit unlikely. Few teams manage "2 very good backs." But yeah, they need a second one who's good. Yeldon might be that guy, but my guess is we bring in another guy at some point, through FA or the draft.

Dude, if you want to say I'm not listening, fine I guess, but it takes one to know one, and you're not listening either. You keep focusing in on whether there are going to be 12 top notch DTs or DEs in the draft. And for what is now the third time, that is completely and entirely irrelevant. More, you may keep wanting to restrict our choices to DT, DE or RB, but that's a false choice. There are few positions they would not consider in the 2nd ... QB of course, but that's just about it. If I was going to add another position in there as 2nd least likely to be picked in the 2nd, it would probably be RB. TE or G, maybe, as well? We would have good use for CB, a DB jack of all trades like Dugger, OL, WR, TE, LB, DL. What they won't do, though, is draft a position or player because of this year's needs. In the end, the only thing that matters is whether a guy is BPA. If he is, then terrific, pick him. If he's not then where he ranks within his position group is only a reason to make a mistake and reach for him. That is all the relevance it has. And if you want to say that BPA is a mantra ... fine, it's a mantra. But it's the mantra of Brandon Beane, among others, and the mantra as well of pretty much every single excellent GM in the league. This year in RBs, the interesting thing is precisely that there are so many guys who would be good solid value in the 3rd and 4th rounds, guys like Perine, Kelley and Dillon. Good guys will likely be available even in the 5th. That's the range where an RB will be BPA a pretty fair amount of the time.

Just because the Jets did it it doesn't necessarily follow that it's a bad move. It's the 33rd highest WR salary, tied with 4 other guys, putting him into the top 37. Yeah, he hasn't proved he's worth that but he's (very briefly) played at that level. And it's a one-year contract so if he doesn't work out he's off the cap next year. Not a bad risk, IMO, especially for a team that had $35 mill to spend before they signed him.

https://content.production.cdn.art19.com/validation=1585312191,9fd3d284-bd25-538e-855e-ab5459654623,6Se1ft1wbu5ij5ktesolmXHGNvw/episodes/5027e7a3-78ad-47d5-a8fa-d8ec7ff78633/7e8a6bb14238cf26c14c8f2ad1e33df13b6463bbbfee5b070e469bf72ecc355ef42c9c8e525ed3cad743dc24f99aa1be98bc35a95e955a9f8e746491f0e8f678/Unbuttoned EP 136 200319.mp3 This is the audio, if you want to watch video, go here and click on the right on episode #136: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLXEMPXZ3PY1iv0O0hBfcQiFIPSvndirCZ It's his March 20th episode and he talks about his top five biggest winners (plus an honorable mention) in free agency. I searched for Simms' name and didn't find this. If I missed something, feel free to merge. The Bills make it.The countdown starts at about 20:45. He talks about Diggs but also about the smaller moves. EDIT: Sorry for screwing up the link. I corrected it. Thanks for letting me know.

You're missing the point. It doesn't matter whether there are 10 defensive ends or offensive tackles out there or one each or 47 each. Ranking guys against their own position group doesn't matter. It doesn't matter whether at #54 you get the best at a given position, the 8th best or the leventy-seventh best. What matters is only how good he is compared to everybody. If he's still available and he's the 40th best player in the draft, the BPA, terrific, grab him. That guy might be the 12th best WR this year, or the 2nd best TE, but that doesn't matter, not even a slight tiny bit. "Which position do you feed with your top remaining draft pick," you ask? Dude, here's the answer ... wait for it ... whichever position the BPA plays. Nobody's pure BPA, including Beane, they won't be picking a QB in the second this year, but they also won't pick a guy because he's the best available RB, they simply won't do this, nor should they. This is my opinion, but that's entirely beside the point ... the point is that that's how our GM rolls, thank goodness, because it's the smart way to go. Over the past three years he's said it dozens of times in different ways, again and again, and thank goodness he gets this, because it's how the best teams work. Here's one, but again, there are dozens: “When we get to draft day we’re not going to reach. We’re not. I have seen that and it rarely works when you reach,” he said. “I’ve seen where decisions were made and it’s decided that a team will not come out of the draft without ‘X’ position filled. I have a lot of examples in my head right now that happened. “Most teams say they won’t reach. I’ve told my guys to hold me accountable. If they see me starting to reach somewhere that doesn’t match our value I’ve told them to grab me. “We can’t just go say, ‘Hey I’m going to take this guy in the first and this guy in the second and now we’ve checked those boxes.’ We have to draft best player available.” https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/04/13/bills-g-m-brandon-beane-we-have-to-draft-best-player-available/

IMO it's less a matter of missing pieces than it is that development is needed and the pieces have to come together. IMO there's very little chance of the Ngakoue move or anything like it, and it's not really needed anyway. Yeah, certainly a great rusher would help us. But they schemed a rush last year and managed with solid guys and the defense was plenty good enough. McDermott has made a superior whole of defensive pieces that shouldn't have added up to anywhere near as good. I expect 'em to maybe try to draft and develop a rusher. This is a team that is more than the sum of it's parts. I don't think "a few parts missing" is the right perspective. More how well will Allen play and will the team come together enough, particularly on offense.

It's a tough year to be an FA WR. There are a ton of excellent draft WR prospects.

If an RB has a significant fall and is easily the best player on the board, yeah, I'd guess they would make the pick in that case. For ex, if they have JK Dobbins ranked in the 30s and he falls to #54 as talked about in the "Mock with Dobbins" thread, yeah, that would make sense. Oh, but whether you're getting the eighth-best at one position or the absolute best at another has no relevance or importance. What matters is whether another guy available at the time, whatever position he plays, is likely to become a better player. There's a reason they say BPA rather than BPAATP (Best Player Available At That Position, my awkward little acronym for what you're talking about here). In fact, a GM saying he goes BPA strategy - as Beane does - is pretty much saying that BPAATP isn't a factor in how he'll choose. This year is a good year for WRs and a bad year for TEs, they say. GMs, though, won't be saying, yeah, we have this TE as the 55th best player but the 3rd best TE, and this receiver as the 40th best player, but only the ninth-best WR, so let's grab the TE 'cause he's the third-best TE this year. It doesn't matter how a guy ranks in this draft at his position, except that guys at a position that's rich might fall and become the BPA. RB at #54 remains unlikely IMO. As you say though, we'll see.

We have our #1 RB going forward. They don't need to spend a #2 on RB. Doesn't make much sense to pay someone more to be a backup/injury insurance. They've noticed that you can get a starter level RB later in the draft than you can most other positions. It's certainly not impossible, but not likely. Also, your statement that "there are a number of players who can play edge at a high level" is questionable. People are always looking for good edge talent, as you can find plenty of replacement-level talent but not much in the way of guys who can pressure the QB. Teams are always looking and rarely finding. In the list of positions at which there are a number of guys who can play at a high level, RB is far higher than edge.

That's what I immediately thought of.

Worthwhile question. IMO, if they continue doing everything else as well as they have so far, yeah, I'd say they should be here a long time.

I don't think it's necessary to parse this, myself. I'd say something like ... improve significantly and improve more as the season goes along. Be among the top half of all starters in 2020 and hopefully even a bit higher than that.

You're referring to Thurman Thomas, yes? Thurman was indeed great at what you say there. But he was also very good at pass blocking.

We have no depth at RB has some truth. We could certainly use another. From there to we will draft my guy in the 2nd is a rather desperate stab. Certainly possible. I deeply doubt it myself, though I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see them draft someone a bit later.

Using the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, that's 240 points of difference, going up from 54 to 31, and that's equivalent to a 3rd round pick. I seriously doubt when they already don't have a 1st that they then give up their third as well, leaving themselves with only one pick in the top 100.