Thurman#1

Nah. Best player at a position of need. Offense or defense ... best guy. The good ones need to eliminate the serious weaknesses in their game. That's what defenses look for and can scheme around.

They will have room. But they don't have the tendency. Build through the draft and fill in the gaps with low- to medium-priced FAs is what they want to do and what the teams that win consistently in the NFL do. More, "they have room" is the worst argument around. It's like the guy who says, "Why don't we buy it? We have the money." The one thing you know about him is that very soon, he won't.

First, he hasn't overcome it yet. It looks increasingly like he will, but the results aren't in yet. Second, it wasn't a particularly bad situation if it only lasts a year or so. Most QBs picked early in the first have worse situations, as they're mostly being picked by crappy teams with bad management. We appear to have good management, at long last. Third, the person who put the Bills in a bad situation was Doug Whaley by putting us in cap hell while only assembling a mediocre roster with no franchise QB. Beane and McDermott have maximized Allen so far. They've done a great job, and that's why he's got pretty good offensive talent around him in his second year and a terrific defense meaning the offense doesn't generally have to score very much. I'm no Jets fan but I tend to root for most players early in their careers. Except Patriots. I wish Darnold the best.

Oh, but as for going for two with almost no time left in the game and down by one? No, that's crazy. The odds on making a two-pointer are ever so slightly below 50%. https://rileykolstefootball.com/2018/07/08/two-point-study/ Gonna bet the game when you don't quite get coin-flip odds? That would be crazy. You don't buck the odds like that, not if you've got sense.

Yeah, missing the 2 pointer would have put us an extra possession away. Same with missing the two-pointer later in the game, though. We had to make a two-pointer sometime either way. The odds on making a two-ponter don't change depending on how much time there is left in the game. Make it earlier or later and it's no problem, so that doesn't matter. Miss it earlier and you now know that you need two possessions with seven minutes left in the game during which to work the clock and guide your strategy. Miss it later and you now know that you need two possessions when you have ... what? ... 30 seconds left? A minute if you're lucky? Your fate has already been decided at that point.

That's nonsense that this "by all rights should have ruined him." Plenty of rookie QBs on rebuilding teams came onto teams without much around them. Think Troy Aikman. Joe Montana. Peyton Manning. Plenty of others. I suppose it might have ruined some players but again, lots of franchise QBs brought in during rebuilds had little talent around them the first year. If the GM brings in guys to fill in after that, plenty of those QBs go on to become franchise guys, if they have it in them in the first place. The Bills used virtually no resources on the offense before that year, except to bring in Allen himself. That was the plan, and it has worked out fine indeed, largely because by skimping on the offense and getting rid of big salaries, they cleared up the cap superbly, allowing them to address the offensive side this year. Anyway, there's every evidence they didn't want Allen to play that year or at least not till the end. But they screwed up (they have admitted this) by not bringing in Derek Anderson when they let McCarron go. Allen has certainly done his part. So has the front office. They have been terrific by all evidence.

So, when the Bills were consistently poor to mediocre for 20 years they said they didn't like/trust what they see. And now when the team actually is starting to look like a real team with a real front office that might be good this year but sure looks like next year will be even better ... they stop saying they don't like/trust what they see? Wow, this is tough to figure. I wonder what nefarious plot they're hatching.

Again, I don't think it's all that clear that Wood thinks he can. In the same Eric Wood video you mentioned, on Beasley's TD, Wood says, "... and Josh Allen operating out of an empty set is able to identify the coverage pre-snap, he does a great job of avoiding the rush, stepping up to his right and he finds just ..." Strangely, Eric doesn't mention Ford specifically on that play, in which it is Ford's man who forces Josh to do a great job of avoiding the rush. I hope the more optimistic folks here are right. If he can get better and start handling faster edge rushers better, it'd be great news for the Bills. It's early, maybe he can do it, but it looks to me more like a physical inability to move that quickly rather than anything technique-related. I could be wrong though.

I'm disagreeing with the whole idea of rolling out having been intended here or in any of the plays on that whole video. You said, "... it's less bolting from the pocket than the designed roll-out and secondary routes concepts from Mouse Davis run-and-shoot that Beasley ran at SMU under June Jones." But it wasn't a designed roll-out, none of the plays on video had any rollout of any kind, there was no mention of rolling out or any synonym or anything like it in the rest of the article, including all the stuff on June Jones. The play itself wasn't a designed rollout, it was a straight dropback with Josh being forced off his spot when Ford had trouble with the edge rush. Do you use the word "rollout" when the QB first moves up in the pocket underneath outside pressure and then runs wide? I certainly don't, and that would seem to me a misuse. Roll means a rounded shape, it implies that the QB runs or rolls around the outside of the pocket, not that he steps up and then escapes out the edge. What Josh did I would not call a rollout in any way shape or form, and it certainly wasn't designed. The dropback was straight back. He did escape the pocket, but nowhere in the Mouse Davis stuff did the QB even escape the pocket, nor is that idea mentioned in the text about Mouse. QB rollouts may be a part of the run-and-shoot - they're part of nearly every offense at times such as when protection is regularly breaking down and on certain plays - but neither of those college plays was a rollout, designed or not, nor did the QB leave the pocket. Here's June Jones, Beasley's coach who he learned the play from, breaking down that exact play. He does not mention escaping the pocket in any way, and in fact expects the QB to generally make his mind up and throw at just about the time in the play when Allen was being forced to leave his spot. He has a video. Again, no leaving the pocket and no mention of the possibility. Thanks for pointing me towards the "Chopping Wood" interview, it was nice. But I disagree that he said that anything very positive about Ford on that play out of the end zone you mention. He's really positive about the line as a whole, and then says Ford, "is able to drive DeMarcus Lawrence by." It's questionable whether he's saying anything more positive there than that Ford didn't quite let Allen get sacked. That's hardly "in a good way," to my ears. More like that with the help of Allen stepping up and ducking under, Ford didn't allow a sack, though he did allow the rusher to force Allen to leave his spot. Since the guard and center both did a great job, Allen was able to step up and then escape, but while Ford didn't allow a catastrophe, he also didn't do well.

I agree with your overall point, but don't think it's close to fair to evaluate the Beckham signing by his stats this year. Receiver stats are greatly affected by the QB and how well he's playing, and even the OL and how well they're protecting the QB. Beckham will be sensational again if he's in the right position, and I think he will be. But yeah, in free agency picking the low- to mid-range guys while building the core of your team through the draft does seem to be the strategy the teams that sustain excellence consistently use. Oh, and I agree with BillsVet above, the Brown and Beasley deals weren't team-friendly. They got what they could get. They got market value and weren't cheap. Oh, and Brady's no game manager. Not even close. Thank goodness he's no longer elite but he's still probably top seven or so but is dealing with an offense that doesn't have a Gronk or anyone but Edelman. And while he's always been terrific enough to overcome that, he's just really really good now and can't overcome the problems.

At $14 mill for the year? (Salary plus roster bonus) Nope. That's Allen Robinson - Stefon Diggs money. He's never produced at a level that would make that a sensible investment.

Yeah, but again, Baldy never specifically says much about Ford's pass pro. He says a lot about the Bills doing well, a lot about Allen knowing when to step up away from pressure and get outside (in these videos both times it happens he's been forced off the spot by Ford's man getting pressure by going around the edge). He's right that in the Dallas game, Ford got little help, but in the Denver game he did. And there's nothing wrong with that, but Baldy's complementing the Bills here. And when he say that the tackles were going mano-a-mano, toe to toe, that's Ford's strength. Nobody's had much success against Ford going toe to toe and bullrushing. We'll see down the line, but it sure looks to me like Ford's got a specific weakness concerning fast guys who can get around him. Turn down the sound on Baldy and just watch the video, and see if you don't agree.

I have to disagree with you here. There's not one single other play in all that video where the QB rolls out. And in the written explanation, Turner specifically says that the pressure on Allen prevents the original intended throw. That's not a rollout, it's an escape underneath a rusher who made it around the outside well enough to pressure Allen. "Allen is slightly under pressure just as Beasley makes eye contact with his QB, so he isn’t able to pull the trigger just yet. Due to the slight pressure from defensive end Michael Bennett and linebacker Jaylon Smith, Allen and Beasley activate the secondary route. The deep safety has his hips open to the wide side of the field because Allen appears to go into scramble mode. Allen sees Beasley working down the seam, the weakness in Cover 3, so Beasley works over the middle and creates a window for his QB." There's nothing in the whole article about rolling out. And all the SMU throws are from the pocket.

Yeah, Josh had all day on that play. Ford's guy starts to bull-rush, then backs way off and runs into the middle of the field as if he's in pass protection the middle short zone. Ford collapses in and helps by doubling the DT on that side.

"@BuffaloBills @dallascowboys @DDawkins @CodyFord had another outstanding performance on Thanksgiving. They are reaching a level of consistency in Pass Protection whereby they don't believe they need help and the results are more options for @JoshAllenQB #BaldysBreakdowns." I don't see anything there specific to Ford's pass protection. He's complementing the Bills OL's pass protection as a whole. He says some nice things about Ford in the audio, but again as Allen is forced by Ford's guy to step up. More, Baldinger clearly isn't claiming to have gone play-by-play there. He's giving his overall impression, though that's valuable, Baldy's smart. And it's pretty funny that he says that and then as an example shows a video of a different play where Ford is beaten around the edge, and Baldy says, "but the quarterback has a great feel ... when to step up," as Allen avoids the guy who got around Ford by stepping up and heading for the sideline. I like Baldinger, he's good with his video and his breakdowns.

LG? Ah, OK, fair enough. If that's what he meant, it makes a lot of sense to me, though I'm not sure between LG and RG for Ford. Ah, you did mean that. Sorry. Makes sense then. I don't see anyone talking about Nsekhe at RT. I think they might just keep him. Roc City Roller posted a list of FAs. That's where our next RT will likely come from, if it's not Nsekhe, IMO. I've always like Bulaga. Bulaga's last contract was a 5 year deal for $33.75 mill. If they like him, that's a kind of deal the Bills might consider.

Watching film doesn't require a guru. It's really pretty easy to tell what's going on. The tough part of watching film is putting in the time. If you're going to watch every play, as Joe does, you will end up spending an awful lot of time. And if you're going to watch every snap for every player, the time requirement becomes massive. And no, you can't understand what a guy was supposed to do on every single play. Occasionally it's not clear. For example, when a DL runs free between two unengaged OLs and gets a sack, whose fault was it? Which guy had the assignment. You don't know. But those situations don't come up all that often. Mostly it's easy to see, because though you don't have the play or the assignment, you have the benefit of hindsight. Right around 90% of plays are really pretty easy to understand with that hindsight. If you're not sure, you need to not blame anyone, and that is the way that PFF, Joe B., and any film-watcher worth his salt operates.

Ford to LT is the part of that that makes no sense. He hasn't got the mobility for RT, much less LT. We've got no problem at LT anyway. There's a guy there doing a good job. Expect Ford to be either at guard or maybe at RT if we can't get anyone better (Nsekhe?).

It's you. If you're talking about Baldinger's twitter, he did put up a video of a nice rep by Ford, but it was run blocking. Joe B hasn't had a problem with Ford's run blocking.

I didn't read the article, but the figures at the end there are way out of whack. After his first eight games in the league, Aaron Donald had three sacks and Oliver had one. Donald had 22 tackles and Oliver 20. Oliver had one pass defended. Donald had an absurd 11 tackles for loss, and Oliver only one. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/O/OlivEd00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DonaAa00/gamelog/2014/ EDIT: I see, you compared Oliver's 12 game figures to Donald's (and Cox's and Atkins' and McCoy's) eight game figures. You know that's not exactly fair to Donald or the others, right? FURTHER EDIT: I see others have already picked up on this. Not that I'm not loving Oliver. He's been effective all year even though not putting up the big numbers early.

Oh, nice! Hadn't thought of him, and he's got the same type of terrific athletic ability. Best guess, IMO.

One of you said he was going to be fighting for league MVP this year, didn't he? Granted it seemed absolutely unhinged from minute one, but some of you that really get behind him really have said some quite nutty things. For those that haven't, fair enough.

9-3. But again, that is simply not a Josh Allen stat. It is a Buffalo Bills stat. It has an awful lot to do with how terrifically our defense is playing.

As many have pointed out, this is very much not true. To put it in perspective ... Allen is tied for 16th in the league in throwing TDs. Which is far from bad. Wilson tied for 9th as a rookie and 9th again as a soph. Those are absolutely not similar numbers, in terms of rankings or gross numbers. And those TD numbers came on 383 attempts as a rookie and 407 attempts the next for Wilson, while Allen has already thrown 366 passes. Allen has thrown a TD on 3.1% of his passes last year and 4.4% this year, while Wilson racked up TDs on 6.6% of his throws as a rook and 6.4% the next year. Josh is improving, and the outlook is pretty solid right now. But he certainly hasn't produced similar passing TDs numbers with Wilson's first two seasons.

"Bad" is seriously overstating it, even back when you posted this on 11/20. For a second-year guy, his stats have been OK. Probably better than that, in that they're trending upwards. He's 21st in passer rating among guys with 100 or more throws, and that just is not bad at all for a second-year man. And it's higher than that for nearly any stretch of games after the (admittedly awful) NE game. If there were indications that he'd reached his ceiling, it would be bad news. But results show just the opposite, that he trended up year on year and he's continued to do so through the course of this year. And ask Dallas, Denver or Miami if running is the only dangerous thing he does. They'll disagree. Teams started the year packing the box and daring Allen to beat them. Lately, he's done a good enough job of being productive in those situations that he's making game-planning much tougher on opposing DCs.