Thurman#1

Sooner or later, Jerry Hughes is going to lose a step. Until he does, cutting him (or Hyde) for such a small savings is nuts. Lotulelei will be back, and that will make one of our interior DLs expendable. Cut more of them than that and you'll just have to pay similar money to replace them. They run a platoon. So they need four starter quality interior DLs and four starter quality exterior DLs. And your list includes the dead cap and yet your calculations do not. More, you're blithely assuming you can replace these guy in the draft or cheaper. A little bit cheaper, yeah, maybe. But bringing in guys who wouldn't be less effective especially in year one is not going to be nearly as easy or as cheap as you assume. Several of these guys will almost certainly go. The likelihood of all, or even most, going is far less.

Gotta be ruthless. Don't gotta be stupid. Cutting him with extremely little savings before someone beats him out would be outright stupid. Beane made clear in his PC that he isn't looking at the RBs as having failed. It would be hard to miss what that means, but many obviously have. It's possible that Singletary went from 2nd in the league in YPA to this year being below average because he regressed ... and it's possible that the other RB running behind the same line who most folks on here like more because of his one-cut and go, bruising style, that back had nearly the same YPA except a tenth of a yard less than Singletary because, because, I don't know, because the footing was bad and the sun was in their eyes, maybe. It's possible. But it's not likely.

I would watch if the Bills were in it. Otherwise no way. So, I don't think it's worth doing. I suppose you could give the winner the 3rd pick next year and the loser the 4th. Even then not really worth watching.

I love the name. Always reading that book to the kid these days. But trading up to 15 would require trading a 1st rounder. Trading to 20 would still need around a 3rd. I like your guy Pitts, but don't see any way a prudent GM trades away that much value in a year when he has so little money to add guys in FA. They're gonna need their first three or four draftees to contribute. If he somehow falls and they like him, he'd make a great addition.

Yeah, they would have a bit of cap after cutting those guys. But not much. Cut Mario Addison and you end up with a lot of dead cap. You save like a couple of mill. And they would also have created holes that need filling. Cut them and you have to bring in guys to replace them in the platoon that our coaches like to run. Those guys will cost money. Brown, if they cut him, would actually save us a bit, but you're still left with miniscule money on the cap. They've got 53 guys on the roster for right now, and they're over the cap by $7 mill. But among the guys on that roster are guys who will likely be camp cuts, taxi squad or simply gone. Tannger Gentry, Christian Wade, Duke Williams, Trey Adams, Nate Becker, Cam Lewis, Josh Thomas, Antonio Williams, Brandin Bryant, Bryan Cox Jr., Davis Webb, Kumerow ... If any more than 2 or 3 of those guys are on the roster, we will suffer from lack of depth and personnel problems. But to replace them with guys who can play if they have to isn't a minimum salary deal, generally. It costs money. We simply aren't going to have a lot this year. Yes, they can make some cuts or re-do some contracts. Even after that, we won't have much after signing our rookie draftees, re-signing whoever we can manage out of Milano, Feliciano and Darryl Williams, giving Allen a contract with a signing bonus, etc.

This isn't a difficult question. He said it because he meant it. He meant it because it's what the situation dictates. Is it possible we get a shot somehow at getting our own Travis Kelce for almost no money off the cap? Well, yeah, anything's possible but it's a thousand to one. He said it because he knew Bills fans are going to expect big things because that's how fans work. And it's not the right situation or even close. He knows that and wants us to be ready. But I'm sure he also knows that there are people out there who simply will not hear what they don't want to hear and will continue calling for expensive FAs and trades that would leave us with huge amounts of dead cap and cap deficits. There will be moves. There will be no blockbuster moves. That is the overwhelming likelihood. But hey, some fans won't face reality. It's unpleasant.

IMO ... Talent/Coaching/Scheme: 50/10/10 And the other 30% comes from further development and improvement.

How many SB wins? How much better have they gotten in the last three years as they trade away those first round picks? How good is their cap situation as they trade away the chance to get good young players on rookie contracts for the chance to own older players on expensive second contracts? Winning one post-season game this year and not making the playoffs last year should not be seen as a good result for a team that made the Super Bowl in 2018.

There's some real truth here. Goff isn't as bad as some have made out, IMO. But it's in McVay's interest that people think Goff is largely to blame. That said, I think it's clear Stafford is better. But giving up 2 firsts will really limit what they can put around Stafford.

2016 with Goff. Then 2015 with Hurley, and before that 2014 with Greg Robinson (recently jailed for 150 pounds of marijuana which may not all have been for personal use) and Aaron Donald, 2013 Tavon Auston and Alec Ogletree and 2012 with Michael Brockers. You're dead right that they haven't used their 1sts lately. But when you look at what they got when they most recently did use them, you see a lot of the better guys who've been on that team recently. Maybe they should use them more. Too late for the next two years, though. With Stafford, but also with no 1st rounder and already $13M over the cap, it will be hard for them to have a roster without a bunch of holes this year. Stafford is good, a lot better than he's been given credit for. But like every other QB, he will need a talented roster around him for the team to be competititive for a title.

It's not critical to have a great TE/RB combo. It's sure nice, but it's not critical. Look at Tampa. Fournette has managed 3.7 YPC this year. Ronald Jones is better, but not great by any means. KC has them now but who did they have at RB last year when they won the Super Bowl? Damien Williams and a tired LeSean McCoy. Both teams had excellent TE talent. That's clear. But you don't need better than a solid RB. History shows that. It would be nice to get a really good RB, but it's not necessary. More important would be to build the OL so they can make a solid running back look good.

Think also how expensive it would be and how we have little money. Robinson's great but we're unlikely to be able to afford big-ticket FAs this year.

While I would absolutely love Hunter Henry, the odds on that happening with our current cap situation are very very not good. We'll see, I guess, but IMO we will either draft somebody or wait a year. Or both.

In fact, it did. As Buscaglia pointed out, our lack of any run threat allowed the Chiefs D to use 6 DBs for most of the game. That will make it harder for any passing attack to be successful. So, yes, that "3" in the 36-3 may well have had something to do with the exposure of how little of a run game threat we showed.

Kamara was a 3rd rounder. If they can get someone like him there, I'd be thrilled. IMO, TE is the bigger need, though. I don't see us affording Drake this year, myself. $8M for one year last year. The demand will be down with many teams in cap trouble, so salaries will drop but my guess is that he still gets somewhere in the $5M neighborhood and I don't see us being able to be in the running this year. We're likely to have Star himself, though nobody can be sure he won't opt out again. I don't see us trying to replace him as an early need, though supplementing the team with a guy with some of the same skills who could play on short-yardage downs and be groomed to be his long-term replacement would make a lot of sense. Seeing how well the NFL handled COVID has to have calmed fears a bit in many optouts. Pass rushers generally, would indeed seem to be a major need.

Agreed, commitment, in time and in spirit, to the run game, is an undervalued necessity. With that said, IMO they need better performance from the line, especially at guard, and Morse has been underperforming his usual standard and needs to start playing again like himself, or he'll be elsewhere, and soon. I'm hopeful that some of that improvement comes from a healthy Ford having an offseason and playing like he's in his third year even though he's only had 22 games.

He will be under contract for two more years. It wouldn't have to be done this offseason. This is news, not unexpected news, but it's news. Dude, just shush and move away. This whole take would not look smart on Thomas Edison or Einstein, much less an ordinary human. Went and watched the Youtube clip. Brilliant.

For those of you who get the Athletic, it's here: https://theathletic.com/2354616/2021/01/29/buffalo-bills-kansas-city-chiefs-all-22/ Joe wonders if the fallout of this game will affect their offseason moves. That seems a very reasonable thought to me. I read the article and came here expecting there'd already be a thread on it. I searched "Buscaglia" but couldn't find one. If I missed it, I apologize. Otherwise, here are a few excerpts: Joe: "For much of the game, the Chiefs were daring the Bills to run the ball on them. As the Bills rarely complied or went with heavy personnel, the Chiefs settled into using four defensive linemen, one linebacker and six defensive backs throughout the game, complete with successfully disguising coverages and blitzes before the snap to confuse Josh Allen. None of it would have been possible without the Chiefs defensive line, particularly the tackles, dominating the Bills offensive line the way they did." Ouch. He includes Feliciano in the group of guys who struggled, though many will struggle against Jones. Thoughout the season Joe has graded Feliciano well, but not here, and Morse and Boettger also had problems. 6 DBs consistently? I hadn't noticed that, and haven't gone back to look again at the game. It'll be another few weeks before I can stand to look at it, I would guess. But being able to use 6 DBs consistently is going to make it hard on any QB. Joe: "The last part of their struggles is the most important both to the undoing of the matchup and moving forward. The Bills weren’t able to run the ball with their preferred power scheme consistently at all during the season. Without that trio winning their matchup against a lighter defensive set, it clogged up the rushing lanes. It prevented either Devin Singletary or T.J. Yeldon from taking pressure off Josh Allen, which then allowed the Chiefs to get creative with their blitz calls, knowing that the Bills were more than likely to pass on every down." This makes you wonder whether we might see major changes in the interior this offseason. Morse hasn't appeared himself since the concussion, and might well return to his usual form before next year, but it's hard to be sure of that at his age. Joe: "There wasn’t a lot that went well for the Bills, but second-year defensive tackle Ed Oliver was excellent versus a banged-up Chiefs offensive line. The Chiefs successfully moved the pocket, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes is, at times, a magician with how he’s able to escape pass rush contain to rip apart a zone defense. However, in one-on-one battles and run-defending opportunities, Oliver stood out on multiple plays. He showed excellent hand usage and quickness to dip under the offensive line assignments and helped force stops because of his victories." It's always seemed that way to me on tape after he recovered from his early season injuries. Joe: "As the offensive line and running backs both deserve blame for the rushing attack’s inefficiency, tight end Dawson Knox was a major disappointment as a blocker as well. Knox lost his blocking assignment on several handoffs that directly led to the demise of a running play. It isn’t only a one-week occurrence either. ... His output as a receiver has slightly increased, but he’s nowhere near where the Bills would like him to be at this point in his career. His routes also aren’t crisp enough to deceive defenders, and the majority of his receptions rely either on scheme working him open or physicality to win a contested catch." This is a real concern. I keep hoping for a breakthrough, but so far we have only seen flashes and they've been few and far between. He's going to have to take a major leap up to have a long-term future here. I hope he does, but maybe the Bills should take a look at TE, perhaps even on the first couple of days of the draft. It's a great article with a lot more to it. Highly recommended.

This makes total sense to me. Also wouldn't mind a big nickel or a TE or speed receiver who looks like a gadget guy now but might eventually become far more than that.

I doubt you're correct there. IMO losing Lotulelei moved the needle a lot, downwards. And Ford is young, and he's played 22 and maybe 1/3 games, without much of an offseason before that second year. But we'll see.

Did McDermott maybe get some info, when he was still working at Carolina, about what they thought of some college guys? Sure. But while you're right that he was privy to it, I'm privy to my wife's shopping list, and yet I find that life is too short and busy to worry about it. Same w/ McDermott and this situation. Could he have found stuff out while still in Carolina? Sure. Would he have spent anything more than the odd minute or two here and there in casual conversation? No. If there's one thing we know about McDermott, it's that he is absolutely buttoned down and ruthless about his time management, that that is an absolute foundation for him of his principles. I mean, someone on here said something about how all signs point towards him drafting some of the guys the Bills drafted that year. And that is flat-out nuts.

Fine, you don't know. Thing is, everyone else really does know. It didn't happen that way. Neither guy is the absolute snake in the grass that this move would require.

I'd love to see him here. I just don't see any reasonable way for that to happen. Yeah, if willing to sign cheap, KC would certainly be the favorite.

No, though I saw it a long time ago. I absolutely revere Joe Lansdale. Interesting. I'll check him out.

Here are all the offense guys: 2012 WR A.J. Jenkins to San Fran 2010 RB Jahvid Best to Detroit 2009 WR Kenny Britt to Tennessee 2008 TE Dustin Keller to NY Jets 2007 WR Craig Davis to San Diego 2006 RB Joseph Addai to Indy 2005 TE Heath Miller to Pitt 2004 RB Kevin Jones to Detroit 2002 OG Kendall Simmons to Pitt 2001 WR Reggie Wayne to Indy I'd argue Heath Miller And Dustin Keller probably was too, though career-ending injury didn't leave him with a long career. Kendall Simmons was really good too, till he ruptured his Achilles. Add in Reggie Wayne and that's not too bad a bunch, though injuries hurt them.