Thurman#1

Nice post. Thoughtful. Hadn't really considered the scheme change in that way.

I've only watched the first one on the All-22. Should have been thrown away or thrown better. Probably away. The second one - without careful watching - appears to have been unavoidable. The third - again without seeing the All-22 - should have been thrown differently, perhaps to a check down. He had to know he was being spied, and that the guy was in perfect position to make that play. Yes, the leap was just perfect, but NFL players are capable of making beautiful athletic plays in situations like that. He was only 4 - 5 yards in front of Josh, he was in just the right position.

Tipped doesn't mean the QB is free of blame.

I haven't seen Allen say anything about it. But I'd put it at 90:10 that he's throwing to Beasley, for several reasons. Diggs was a good 15 yards from the corner of the end zone and having just stopped and run backwards to get behind the CB covering him, he hadn't gotten anywhere near speed yet. Diggs fell down about halfway across the "S" in Bills, gets up, takes a step or two inwards, turns around, goes towards the back of the end zone and starts to turn towards the outside. But when Allen throws, Diggs is still about halfway across the "S," still getting started. When the ball got there he was going to still be about 12 yards away from the sideline, significantly further to the inside than Beasley would have been. More, Diggs was much further away. If it had been to him, Allen would have had to throw it well over the guy who tipped it. Beasley, closer and smaller, had to have the ball thrown lower, which is why it got tipped. Most of all, Diggs was really well-covered. The guy was in front of him and Diggs was against the back line and didn't have even half a step on him. If he did throw to Diggs, it was a horrible decision. Ignored? Not at all. Far from it. Agreed that since a game is a smaller sample size that small differences in passer rating, say the difference between an 85 and a 95, are not signficant. But big differences? Totally valid in a one-game sample size. Don't believe me? Find me one game where any NFL QB had passer rating within say 30 points of 17 - Allen's rating for the game - and can be said to have had a good game. Huge differences, like the difference between 17.0 (Josh's rating) and 84.9 (Ryan's rating for this game), are very persuasive and convincing indeed as to a major differfence in quality of play.

It sounded strange to me, but I wasn't sure myself. Went back to check it. And if I had a nickel for every time I needed to correct myself here... See you on the boards.

Cutting Feliciano, Star, Beasley and Klein wouldn't save us that much at all. (And IMO we're not cutting Klein.) Leaving Klein out, we'd save around $10M - $11M. And then you have to replace them with other players, which will cost money. Extending Edmunds and Diggs could save some more, but Beane has made it clear that while he'll kick a few cans down the road, he's not going to kick all of them. Then you have to throw in the dead money that will come from Sanders (unless you keep him and pay him more), the cost of replacing or re-signing Hughes, Levi Wallace, Obada, Harrison Phillips, Breida, Ryan Bates, McKenzie, Siran Neal, etc. They absolutely can NOT "do whatever they want." They'll get through, and they won't need to leave massive holes or anything. But they are going to be significantly limited.

Scott, why did you leave out the last two third down attempts? The two from late in the 4th quarter? 11) 3rd & 1 at BUF 35 (3:21 - 4th) J.Allen up the middle to BUF 37 for 2 yards (G.Jarrett). BUF-R.Bates was injured during the play. 12) 3rd & 12 at BUF 46 (0:39 - 4th) J.Allen kneels to BUF 45 for -1 yards. There were 12 third down attempts. There were two fourth down attempts, one of which was converted and one of which was a no play. Neither of those affected the number of third down attempts. There were 12. You can see all 12 of them, plus the 2 4th down attempts, in my post on Page 2 of this thread. Twelve 3rd down attempts. And that's how many were listed in the official stats for the game, 7 for 12. https://www.espn.com/nfl/matchup?gameId=401326569

Yeah, "all great offenses"? No. The Bills are a great passing offense, for one thing. First, as Bill said, we've got a guy who can do that in Davis. And another in Knox. Diggs is really good at high-pointing as well. And yes, a guy who can separate vertically is not a bad thing to have. But having instead guys who can separate horizontally by getting separation is every bit as good. And we have those guys. All great offenses have at least one guy who can go up for it? The Chiefs have been probably the single most dangerous team through the air over the last few years. Their WRs aren't especially taller than ours. Height sure isn't a bad thing, but it's not a necessity. There are other ways to create space for your QB than vertically.

It should be left out. It's essentially pure luck. How many fumbles you drop can be said to be on you. How many are recovered by which guys in which jerseys is basically pure luck. He had nine fumbles last year and eight this year. Pretty much exactly the same. The fact that he was a bit luckier this year about who picked them up doesn't say much about his performance. Either way.

It has not. Still an excellent year this year but definitely not as good, as we knew even before seeing these stats. Last year's offensive DVOA was 23.8%, and 34.5 when weighted. This year's is 11.5%. Couldn't find the weighted. And an awful lot of that is on Allen. Who has been merely excellent instead of absolutely elite. Every receiver, tall or small, limits the throws you can attempt based on his strengths and weaknesses. Plenty of taller WRs limit the throws based on an ability to get separation that doesn't compare with guys like Diggs, McKenzie and Beasley. Our guys are consistently excellent at creating separation. That's just as good, if not better than height.

Yeah.

Unfortunately, our cap problems next year are pretty significant. Right now we've got $9.4M available next year. That'll change before the season but we're not going to see a lot of extra space. And we're only going to be able to roll over about $600K from this year's unspent cap. The Covid cap cuts really ruined a careful and thoughtful plan that Beane had put in place before the pandemic.

Star doesn't stand there. He goes side-to-side and clogs up the area being attacked really really well. And he's pushed backwards very rarely. He did indeed eat space like crazy. It's not a coincidence that when he was with the Panthers their defensive YPA was quite good and that it went directly into the dumper the minute he left for Buffalo. Nor is it a coincidence that the year before he came here and the year he opted out were the worst recent years for the Bills in defensive YPA, nor that they improved a lot at it when he was in. But availability matters.

Yeah, that seems about right. Less so if they keep Star. I'd thought that was the likelihood, but with his recent problems with availability and his insistence on remaining unvaxed, I'm now thinking it's pretty likely they won't bring him back next year. Star on the field has been a real plus for Buffalo, he's done what they brought him in to do. But availability is a key, and he has not been on the field this year as much as they needed him to be. That makes Phillips more important. Wouldn't be surprised to see them address the position in the draft as well.

NO. Third downs failure and success has nothing whatsoever to do with what you do on 4th down. And there's proof of that from this game. Here it is: The ESPN game summary shows the Bills as 7/12 on 3rd down efficiency. https://www.espn.com/nfl/matchup?gameId=401326569 And below are all Buffalo 3rd downs and the two fourth down attempts, also from ESPN. https://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay/_/gameId/401326569 It's very easy to see that there are twelve 3rd down attempts. Those 12 absolutely DO include the two 3rd downs that preceded 4th down attempts. Again, as I said on the first page, the disparity mentioned in the OP results from one of the 4th down conversion attempts being called a NO PLAY and not ever actually occurring, because the Bills failed in the conversion, but the Falcons committed a penalty on the play, which the Bills accepted. The 4th down attempt was called a NO PLAY. It never officially happened. The Bills had twelve 3rd down attempts. If they didn't count 3rd down attempts followed by 4th down attempts, there would only be ten or eleven (because of the no play) attempts. Instead there are twelve, which is factually correct, there were actually 12 3rd down situations. 1) 3rd & 10 at ATL 30 (7:10 - 1st) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to G.Davis to ATL 15 for 15 yards (S.Williams). 2) 3rd & 4 at ATL 9 (5:17 - 1st) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to S.Diggs to ATL 4 for 5 yards (A.Terrell). 3) 3rd & 3 at ATL 3 (3:32 - 1st) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short left to S.Diggs. 4th & Goal at ATL 3 (3:29 - 1st) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short right to S.Diggs. PENALTY on ATL-A.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at ATL 3 - No Play. (The next play was a 1st and goal from the 1 yard line.) 4) 3rd & 10 at ATL 18 (2:15 - 1st) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short left to G.Davis. Buffalo challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to G.Davis ran ob at ATL 8 for 10 yards. 5) 3rd & Goal at ATL 4 (0:35 - 1st) Josh Allen 4 Yard Rush T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-M.Haack. 6) 3rd & 7 at BUF 26 (9:20 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to S.Diggs to BUF 39 for 13 yards (M.Walker). 7) 3rd & 8 at ATL 10 (3:20 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right intended for C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by D.Harmon (F.Oluokun) at ATL -1. Touchback. BUF-S.Brown was injured during the play. S.Brown walks off. 08) 3rd & 7 at BUF 32 (14:14 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short middle intended for S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by F.Oluokun (M.Walker) at BUF 43. F.Oluokun to BUF 25 for 18 yards (D.Dawkins). Pass tipped prior to INT. 9) 3rd & 3 at ATL 34 (8:53 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen scrambles right end to ATL 20 for 14 yards (K.Sheffield). 10) 3rd & 9 at ATL 28 (13:47 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to S.Diggs pushed ob at ATL 20 for 8 yards (A.Terrell). 4th & 1 at ATL 20 (13:47 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen right guard to ATL 18 for 2 yards (F.Oluokun). 11) 3rd & 1 at BUF 35 (3:21 - 4th) J.Allen up the middle to BUF 37 for 2 yards (G.Jarrett). BUF-R.Bates was injured during the play. 12) 3rd & 12 at BUF 46 (0:39 - 4th) J.Allen kneels to BUF 45 for -1 yards.

Context is missing from most stats. All that aren't twisted and complex beyond all reckoning, anyway. Still an excellent useful stat that tells a lot about passer performance, though. And that was a bad performance, or passing performance anyway. His running was excellent, as Shaw noted.. 4.62 yards per attempt. 42.31 completion percentage. The weather was bad, but Ryan competed 56.52%, for 8.57 YPA and 0 TDs and 0 INTs, and 197 yards, for an 84.9 passer rating. The conditions weren't impossible, and Ryan was getting a lot more pressure than Allen.

I suspect it's from the below sequence at about 3:32 in the 1st Q. We had a 4th and 3, which resulted in an incompletion. But there was a penalty against Atlanta. That counted as a no play, not a successful 4th down conversion, though it meant we were then in a 1st and goal at the 1. (7:10, 1st) 3rd and 10 @ ATL 30, 15 yard completion (5:17, 1st) 3rd and 4@ ATL 9, 5 yard completion (3:32, 1st) 3rd and 3 @ ATL 3, incomplete (3:29, 1st) 4th and 3@ ATL 3 (penalty, no play, conversion), resulting in 1st and goal at the 1 yard line.

It was to Beasley, who was open, though not by much. It's on the broadcast film, as the third replay angle, from midfield on the far side. I just went and watched it on my international NFLGamePass. But that's Allen's style. We love it when he throws dangerous ones that just get there because his arm is not really an accessory generally available to humans. And that means you have to put up with the dangerous ones that don't get there, as long as there aren't too many of them over the course of the season.

Yup, but it was two INTs that were tipped. Give me home. I don't worry about Allen in bad weather any more than good.

Yeah. This was a bad game, but it didn't look like weather was the problem at all.

Milano and Edmunds are both very good. That's really the bottom line. They have different roles. Both fill their roles really well. But there are some weirdos who have consistently filled these boards with their consistent needs to scapegoat a few specific Bills again and again. One of those is Edmunds. There's not much to admire about this group, but if you admire persistence in wildly ridiculous causes, you'll find a lot to admire with them. One example is finding many many creative ways to introduce new threads with the underlying theme being "I hate Tremaine and can't stop myself from saying it again and again."

Nah. Even if we go to the Super Bowl, this game will be mentioned rarely if ever. A nice win, though. The Falcons made it tough and we just refused to allow them to remain in the game with us.

Good stuff, Shaw. Thanks.

I think that guy struggled compared to the expectations for a first overall pick. But he still had 6.5 sacks as a rook. And how many other teams had the same chance as us? He went #30, didn't he? So 29 other teams had the same chance and passed on it. The correct answer is no, not yet, but improvement is needed.