Thurman#1

Skyy Moore or Parham if one or both are available, as a pure guess. Wouldn't surprise me, unless you're talking about the 2nd. That would really surprise me. And yeah, I get it happened last year but I would guess that if we trade up into the bottom of the 4th this year, that would be about the place it might happen this year.

You do know that's not a three-team deal, right? It's two deals, each involving two teams. Neither one of which stands more than about a 2% chance of happening, not to mention that Dean, while a good LB, doesn't appear to be what the Bills want at MLB.

We don't wonder why we suck there. That's you. We don't suck there. Singletary is good. Far from elite but good. None of Epenesa, Ford or Moss is going to move us up much at all in the 2nd. That scuttlebutt is most likely coming from Bills fandom. Picks in rounds 6 - 7? Yeah, that's his M.O. Very possible. Mid-round picks for next year? I'd bet that doesn't happen. I like your last two paragraphs.

So happy to see we didn't do this in the first. In the 2nd, it would make a ton more sense. Seems unlikely they'll trade up again when they're already down a 4th. They aren't going to trade away that 3rd now. Why should he admit a mistake? If you're talking about Singletary it was a good pick. And if you're talking about Moss it's too early to know. And he's married to his picks for excellent reason. But the idea that Beane is lying to himself and us and wouldn't admit mistakes says a lot more about your grip on reality than it does about Beane.

Agreed. He has been sensational at it. Thankfully, something happened somewhere around four years ago and he got a lot worse. It wasn't Brady leaving, they had been going downhill for a couple of years and Brady left partly in response to that.

Pretty good stuff. Thanks for posting it.

He'll continue using the rules he's used and committed to. That's the most likely thing we'll see. He'll trade up, but not trade away picks in the first four or five rounds. He'll go BPA at positions of need (which will be a bit wider than just the three obvious ones, including things like safety, TE, etc., particularly a bit later) Unless someone like Jordan Davis falls a long way, he'll go WR, CB or IOL with the first pick. And he'll cover all of those within ... oh, maybe the first five picks, I'm saying. ... Oh, and I'm guessing punter in the last couple of rounds

It's different this year because there are five to seven very good CBs out there in free agency, slow-marinating in the oven of temporary unemployment. So many that there's no rush whatsoever to sign one. So many that their salaries go down just a bit every day they aren't signed. So many that even if one or two are suddenly taken there will still be enough out there that there's no rush.

6 SB wins says pretty good. Not so well the last three or four years but overall pretty damn well. Belichick has been an excellent GM for the vast majority of his NE career. And he's done so while consistently drafting from about 25 and even lower. Would he have done it without Brady? No, almost certainly not, but he's the one who drafted Brady, and with a comp pick besides. I'm so happy to see that he simply isn't doing well lately. It's wonderful to see that, but he's been terrific overall.

Antoine Winfield Sr. Who was pretty damn good. I just thought back real quick, "short corners, short corners ... ah, Winfield." 29 3/4s. Which is familiar from somewhere, isn't it?

Mike Williams. Without saying his name, Ross Tucker has talked a lot about a player who because of his draft spot and large salary the coaching staff couldn't get to do anything.

You keep going on about the Senior Bowl, and you're right he was the consensus best WR there. But after Dotson opted out, there were mostly Day 3 guys there. It's good that he was the best, but that's not saying a ton. What does it say about the others if Watson's route running was weak? Not much. He was better than them, but maybe his route running was weaker. Route running tends to take much more importance in the pros as you come up against defenders who are closer to your talent level. Like it or not, his route running is a real concern. You also have to take into account his strengths, and certainly his speed and size are strengths. But route running means something. Some guys get a ton better at route running with coaching in the pros. Others don't.

I disagree there. I could very easily see WR, and I don't think the extension made much of a difference in this discussion. The Bills knew they were going to keep Diggs. They weren't factoring need at WR1 in. They have real needs at WR2/3/4/5, though. And they don't want to be in a position where an injury puts a guy like Hodgins, Kumerow, Stevenson or Gentry on the field for significant numbers of reps. They go every year with BPA at a position of need. They say this over and over and then they show it. Receiver is absolutely a position of need by their standards.

We're going for being competitive for a Super Bowl over the next 12 to 15 years. They've made that clear again and again and again. Every time they're asked about their goals that's what they say, consistently being competitive. You don't say yes or no on a pick based on this year's needs. It does factor in, absolutely, but it's not the final say. The McGahee pick was awful. But he was never the same guy. His injury was a ton worse and medical technology is a lot better now. IMO they should take Williams if he's there. But certainly it could end up being an awful decision. As could they all, really. But IMO the risk is low enough that if your doctors give you the OK you should very strongly consider it.

This is two different questions. What's the weakest position on the Bills roster and what pick would instantly make the team stronger. They're two different questions and likely have two different answers. The answer to the second one basically is BPA at a position of need. The answer to the first IMO is probably second corner, but the scheme is built to allow a decent player there to have a lot of success.

Yup. Ten career fumbles. Zero on runs. Zero on receptions. All ten on returns. False. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McKeIs00.htm Did you really forget this one? I found it impossible to forget. https://www.colts.com/video/highlight-t-j-carrie-recovers-isaiah-mckenzie-s-fumble The other was in the Jets game on 1/10/22.

The Jags were supposed to be a cakewalk indeed. But for our defense, they actually WERE a cakewalk. It was our offense that had the problem.

We'll see. You could be right. I'm guessing somewhere around 55% during the season and then more in the playoffs.

Yeah, exactly. IMO this is why they haven't been hurrying. Let 'em sit on the vine a while and get ripe. The price will only go down.

Josh was starting because of injury. They weren't going to play him early at all till injury forced them to. Bradberry and Worley were starting because there was nobody else. Early, they had some problems. Oliver - and you did mention this but dismissed it a bit - only played 54% of snaps his first year. Singletary started Week one, and next was Week eight. He played very little the first few weeks. Knox didn't start till Week 4. Taron Johnson started two games his rookie year and was inactive twice (he was injured the last three games, which is worth mentioning). Yeah, he is a nickel, but once he wasn't a rookie anymore he started seven games out of 12 active, 11 games and 15 games. Joe is quite right. Edmunds really is the exception. Tre also. Started from minute one. Both were rookies at the start of the rebuild, though. The roster's a lot sounder now. It makes plenty of sense to go elsewhere than corner. Of course, it would also make sense to go corner, but they shouldn't and doubtless don't feel they have to go that way. If Booth or McDuffie are still there, I'd guess they would go that way. But if they're not, or if someone like Jameson Williams falls, I wouldn't be even slightly surprised to see them go another direction.

Yeah, Roberts had 1 in 2019 in Buffalo and 3 in 2020 in Buffalo. And then he was let go. Funny how that happens. In 2019 Roberts had 94 returns and one fumble. In 2020 Roberts had 89 returns and three fumbles and they let him go. In his four years here, McKenzie has had 76 returns and four fumbles. That's worse than Roberts by a significant margin. And McKenzie made some other mental mistakes returning here. He's just not very instinctive at it, whereas Roberts made very few of those mental mistakes.

Four fumbles in his 3.5 years in Buffalo. All on returns. Not overblown.

Yeah, but Tillman was on a one-year $2M contract, at 34 years old, and he retired the next year. They didn't spend a lot of resources to bring him in.

If they're not planning on renewing White, this isn't the year to get his replacement. They would let White go in 2026, which would be the fifth year for the new guy, meaning we'd already be paying him a lot of money, with more soon to come. If we did decide to let White go (which would be nuts ... it's way too early to decide that ... what would make sense would be to decide that we might at that point let him go depending on how things stand, which isn't much of a decision) the year to draft a 1st rounder would be 2023 or 2024. That way you at least get a year or two not paying too much at CB. If we draft a CB in the first this year the season five years from now will be a distant consideration. I also trust Beane and agree that we don't know. You never really do in the draft, though plenty of people might guess right, especially on one guy.

Yup, liked the article, and it totally makes sense.