Thurman#1

It's different this year because there are five to seven very good CBs out there in free agency, slow-marinating in the oven of temporary unemployment. So many that there's no rush whatsoever to sign one. So many that their salaries go down just a bit every day they aren't signed. So many that even if one or two are suddenly taken there will still be enough out there that there's no rush.

6 SB wins says pretty good. Not so well the last three or four years but overall pretty damn well. Belichick has been an excellent GM for the vast majority of his NE career. And he's done so while consistently drafting from about 25 and even lower. Would he have done it without Brady? No, almost certainly not, but he's the one who drafted Brady, and with a comp pick besides. I'm so happy to see that he simply isn't doing well lately. It's wonderful to see that, but he's been terrific overall.

Antoine Winfield Sr. Who was pretty damn good. I just thought back real quick, "short corners, short corners ... ah, Winfield." 29 3/4s. Which is familiar from somewhere, isn't it?

Mike Williams. Without saying his name, Ross Tucker has talked a lot about a player who because of his draft spot and large salary the coaching staff couldn't get to do anything.

You keep going on about the Senior Bowl, and you're right he was the consensus best WR there. But after Dotson opted out, there were mostly Day 3 guys there. It's good that he was the best, but that's not saying a ton. What does it say about the others if Watson's route running was weak? Not much. He was better than them, but maybe his route running was weaker. Route running tends to take much more importance in the pros as you come up against defenders who are closer to your talent level. Like it or not, his route running is a real concern. You also have to take into account his strengths, and certainly his speed and size are strengths. But route running means something. Some guys get a ton better at route running with coaching in the pros. Others don't.

I disagree there. I could very easily see WR, and I don't think the extension made much of a difference in this discussion. The Bills knew they were going to keep Diggs. They weren't factoring need at WR1 in. They have real needs at WR2/3/4/5, though. And they don't want to be in a position where an injury puts a guy like Hodgins, Kumerow, Stevenson or Gentry on the field for significant numbers of reps. They go every year with BPA at a position of need. They say this over and over and then they show it. Receiver is absolutely a position of need by their standards.

We're going for being competitive for a Super Bowl over the next 12 to 15 years. They've made that clear again and again and again. Every time they're asked about their goals that's what they say, consistently being competitive. You don't say yes or no on a pick based on this year's needs. It does factor in, absolutely, but it's not the final say. The McGahee pick was awful. But he was never the same guy. His injury was a ton worse and medical technology is a lot better now. IMO they should take Williams if he's there. But certainly it could end up being an awful decision. As could they all, really. But IMO the risk is low enough that if your doctors give you the OK you should very strongly consider it.

This is two different questions. What's the weakest position on the Bills roster and what pick would instantly make the team stronger. They're two different questions and likely have two different answers. The answer to the second one basically is BPA at a position of need. The answer to the first IMO is probably second corner, but the scheme is built to allow a decent player there to have a lot of success.

Yup. Ten career fumbles. Zero on runs. Zero on receptions. All ten on returns. False. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McKeIs00.htm Did you really forget this one? I found it impossible to forget. https://www.colts.com/video/highlight-t-j-carrie-recovers-isaiah-mckenzie-s-fumble The other was in the Jets game on 1/10/22.

The Jags were supposed to be a cakewalk indeed. But for our defense, they actually WERE a cakewalk. It was our offense that had the problem.

We'll see. You could be right. I'm guessing somewhere around 55% during the season and then more in the playoffs.

Yeah, exactly. IMO this is why they haven't been hurrying. Let 'em sit on the vine a while and get ripe. The price will only go down.

Josh was starting because of injury. They weren't going to play him early at all till injury forced them to. Bradberry and Worley were starting because there was nobody else. Early, they had some problems. Oliver - and you did mention this but dismissed it a bit - only played 54% of snaps his first year. Singletary started Week one, and next was Week eight. He played very little the first few weeks. Knox didn't start till Week 4. Taron Johnson started two games his rookie year and was inactive twice (he was injured the last three games, which is worth mentioning). Yeah, he is a nickel, but once he wasn't a rookie anymore he started seven games out of 12 active, 11 games and 15 games. Joe is quite right. Edmunds really is the exception. Tre also. Started from minute one. Both were rookies at the start of the rebuild, though. The roster's a lot sounder now. It makes plenty of sense to go elsewhere than corner. Of course, it would also make sense to go corner, but they shouldn't and doubtless don't feel they have to go that way. If Booth or McDuffie are still there, I'd guess they would go that way. But if they're not, or if someone like Jameson Williams falls, I wouldn't be even slightly surprised to see them go another direction.

Yeah, Roberts had 1 in 2019 in Buffalo and 3 in 2020 in Buffalo. And then he was let go. Funny how that happens. In 2019 Roberts had 94 returns and one fumble. In 2020 Roberts had 89 returns and three fumbles and they let him go. In his four years here, McKenzie has had 76 returns and four fumbles. That's worse than Roberts by a significant margin. And McKenzie made some other mental mistakes returning here. He's just not very instinctive at it, whereas Roberts made very few of those mental mistakes.

Four fumbles in his 3.5 years in Buffalo. All on returns. Not overblown.

Yeah, but Tillman was on a one-year $2M contract, at 34 years old, and he retired the next year. They didn't spend a lot of resources to bring him in.

If they're not planning on renewing White, this isn't the year to get his replacement. They would let White go in 2026, which would be the fifth year for the new guy, meaning we'd already be paying him a lot of money, with more soon to come. If we did decide to let White go (which would be nuts ... it's way too early to decide that ... what would make sense would be to decide that we might at that point let him go depending on how things stand, which isn't much of a decision) the year to draft a 1st rounder would be 2023 or 2024. That way you at least get a year or two not paying too much at CB. If we draft a CB in the first this year the season five years from now will be a distant consideration. I also trust Beane and agree that we don't know. You never really do in the draft, though plenty of people might guess right, especially on one guy.

Yup, liked the article, and it totally makes sense.

There'll be a rotation as long as McDermott is here. As usual, some guys will get a few more snaps, some a few less. IMO at Miller's age they'll sit him a lot during the regular season.

IMO Crowder would be very hard to beat out in the slot. But yeah, it's a one-year contract. And money will again be tight next year.

Edmunds is good, Epenesa and Basham might easily be good, it's too early to know. Yup, Ford and Jones were bad picks. No reason to think this record is bad. In a few years we'll know more, but right now we don't. Yeah, I'd assumed Gaine, but you're right, it's not a sure thing.

I hope you're right. But odds are pretty good that if he's in his prime (a reasonable thought), he's nearing the end of it. He'll be 30 in a few days. On average, centers begin to decline around 31 or 32 and tend to fall off faster following their 32 year old season. https://socalledfantasyexperts.com/aging-curve-nfl-offensive-players-every-single-position/ I like Morse, and bringing in a replacement certainly isn't an immediate necessity, bringing in a flexible C/G type would make a lot of sense this year.

Morse has been very good as center. We don't need an upgrade. We do need to prepare for a future without him as he grows older The idea that running back sucks is flat-out ridiculous. Singletary for his career has averaged 4.7 YPC, which is really good, and was playing very well once the OL came together last year. TE is your second? Wow. Not going to spend a lot of time on the specifics then. You're indeed an outlier alright.

Please. The guy's had a sensational career.

Not even slightly surprised they kicked the tires. It's smart. But in their salary cap position, he was never going to accept what we could give him. Von Miller was our big move this year, and it's a huge one. Perhaps if they hadn't taken Miller they might well have gone hard after Gilmore.