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Alphadawg7

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    Live 2024 NFL Draft thread - Round 1 (Do NOT tip the Bills pick)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, sven233 said:

    3 out of the next 4 teams could be WR.  Big stretch here.  Steelers could absolutely take one, even though they could use a CB and C.  The Dolphins absolutely could because they are the freaking Dolphins and just want to create a track team even though they have question marks all over the defense.  The Eagles won't take one, but Jax will for sure.  If we have a guy we want, trading with the Eagles is probably the only option here.


    Steelers aren’t taking one, Miami’s entire front office should be fired if they do, and Jags are gonna take one of these corners people thought would be gone.  Dallas might take Worthy, but probably goes OL.

     

    Eagles badly need a corner, I doubt they trade now even though I mocked us trading up with Eagles 

    Alphamock Draft: **UPDATE** Final v3.0 posted on Page 4

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Alphadawg7

    FINAL VERSION 3.0

     

    NOTE:  This was a rushed, crazy, and more aggressive one just for fun including a 3 team trade rumored but probably doesn't happen.  

    1. Chicago - Caleb Williams, QB, USC:  No brainer here, everything points to this being their guy.
    2. Washington - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU:  I have believed this pick to be Drake Maye in v1.0 and 2.0, and I have someone I trust who has insight who told me that both QB's were in play and had supporters inside, and Maye got momentum there for a little bit.  I have not gotten a recent update to know for sure if there is still a chance Maye could go here or not, but given most buzz out there is still sticking with Jayden, I am reluctantly changing this to Jayden even though I won't at all be surprised if this was Maye.
    3. *TRADE* - Vikings (previous Patriots) - Drake Maye, QB, UNC:  In a historic multi team trade...Vikings, Patriots, Cardinals make draft history.  Minnesota decides to pull the trigger after Maye gets past Washington and Patriots have deal in place with GM Ossenfort (formerly of NE) to safely go back 1 where Cardinals also go back with Chargers so they can still get their QB and Cards still get MHJ and Chargers going to 11 where they can safely address OL.
    4. *TRADE* Patriots (previous Cardinals) - JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan:  With a deal in place with Cards before moving off 3, they still get their QB and net some extra draft ammo.
    5. *TRADE* Cardinals (previous Chargers) - Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio St:  hNo team has more power in this draft than the Cardinals who brilliantly add more draft assets to an already treasure trove of picks while still getting their guy.  
    6. Giants - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU:  Missing out on moving up, they take a major weapon in Nabers to help address what is an anemic offensive group.  
    7. Titans - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame:  Not a lot to say here, maybe the safest mock pick in the draft outside Caleb...Having the best OT in this draft fall in their lap here is a gift they sprint to the podium to select.  
    8. Atlanta - Byron Murphy, DL, Texas:  Atlanta looks to bolster their DL with the best DT in the draft who is a guy that just moves different than the other DT's in the draft, who can get off the ball and shoot the gaps to wreak havoc.  He is as much a force against the run as he is the pass as well and who could become an anchor up front for Atlanta for years to come.  One of the edge rushers could be in this spot too such as Turner or Verse.
    9. *TRADE* - Bills (previous Bears) - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington:  Im skeptical we do this TBH, but its a version 3 mock and I am taking a few more risks and liberties here on the news we are being aggressive to move up.  Bills get their absolute stud WR who seems built to be in the Bills locker room for the next stage of Allens prime.  
    10. *TRADE* Colts (previous NY Jets) - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia:  With the Jets missing out on one of the big 3 WR's, they move back and pick up some extra draft ammo and Colts get maybe the biggest mismatch creator in the draft and a young QB's best friend in Brock. 
    11. *TRADE* Chargers (previous Vikings & Cardinals) - JC Latham, OT, Alabama:  This is best case for Chargers, hey get to trade back adding more picks and land the guy they really covet in JC Latham who should be here at 11.
    12. Broncos - Bo Nix, QB, Oregon:  Broncos explore trading back, but ultimately go ahead and take their QB and not mess around.  
    13. Raiders - Michael Penix, QB, Washington:  After missing out on going up to get Daniels, the Raiders pull the trigger on Penix who by all reports they are also very high on.   
    14. Saints - Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn St:  With big needs at OT, Saints also have the draft fall well and are able to take the 2nd best OT prospect in the draft. 
    15. *TRADE* NY Jets (previous Colts) - Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU:  Jets get their weapon for Rodgers while still picking up some extra picks from the earlier trade down to probably address OL to help protect Rodgers.  
    16. TRADE* Eagles (previous Seattle) - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo:  After giving up the most TD passes in the league, the Eagles need to address CB in the worst way, and if Mitchell getting into the mid teens they see the opportunity to go up and get one many see as the best corner in the draft.  
    17. Jaguars - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas:  Jags need to keep pace with Houston, and not sure Kirk, Davis, Zay combo is scaring anyone and look to add some explosion so they can see if TD Jesus is really the long term answer at QB.
    18. Bengals - Troy Fatanu, OL, Washington:  Bengals have to find a way to keep Burrow on his feet and healthy and signing Trent Brown on a one year deal with his injury history isn't enough to keep them from looking to the future here.   
    19. LA Rams - Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA:  Buzz here is that McVay is gonna go offense in his first ever first round pick and is trying to trade up.  Not getting into the top 10, Rams stay put and bolster their pass rush with maybe the best pure edge rusher in the draft. 
    20. Pittsburgh - Graham Barton, IOL, Duke:  Steelers need a Center and here is their chance to add maybe the best IOL prospect in the draft who can potentially come in and shore up that Center position for years to come.   
    21. Miami - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama - The trenches for Miami are an absolute mess and they could go OL or DL here, but with steep drop off on the DL after the first round, they take one of the best pass rushers in the draft, especially given the plethora of JAGS they brought in FA are nothing more than role players.  
    22. *TRADE* Seattle (via Eagles) Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida St:  Seattle has the draft fall great for them after trading back with Eagles and still getting one of the premiere edge rushers in this draft to help bolster their ailing DL.
    23. *TRADE* Commanders (previously Vikings, Patriots, & Chargers) - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon St:   Commanders are aggressively looking to move for an OT and they move up to get one of the best in Fuaga.  Chargers, looking to rebuild both sides of the trenches and address WR in this draft see an opportunity to load up more picks here on days 2 and 3 to do just that.
    24. Dallas - Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia:  Dallas wouldn't surprise me to take a WR here, but I think the smarter play is address the obvious needs on the OL with the guy with the most upside.
    25. Packers - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson:  With the trade of Douglas to the Bills, GB looks to the draft to find its next CB opposite Jaire and take one of the top corners in the draft in Wiggins.  If Wiggins is gone in the real draft here, I can also see some OL help in bound with this pick as well.
    26. Tampa Bay - Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn St:   With pass rushers dropping off soon, Bucs look to bolster that unit with the explosive Chop Robinson. 
    27. Arizona - Jer'Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois:  As I had in v2.0, Newton has been vocal about loving the Cardinals and if he is here I think this will most likely be the pick as AZ looks to bolster a unit very much in need of the help.  
    28. *TRADE* Bears (previously Buffalo) -  Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri:  After the trade down with the Bills, the Bears take the versatile Robinson who can help inside and on the Edge.
    29. Detroit - Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa:  Lions could very well take Adonai Mitchell here or even someone on the OL, but with a high powered offense already in stow, I have changed my mind and have them addressing their biggest need and taking the talented corner from Alabama to help bolster their defense. 
    30. Ravens - Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona:  I have moved off WR here for Ravens given the fact they lost 3 OL this offseason and if they want Lamar and Henry to be at their best, they need to bolster this unit and Morgan can potentially play RT or G giving them a versatile player to plug in.  
    31. 49ers - Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia:  With a major WR run expected to begin at the top of round 2, 49ers look to add one with them looking at having to move Aiyuk possibly at some point. 
    32. Chiefs - Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas:  I still think Ja'Lynn Polk could be in play here, or potentially OL or someone like Kool-Aid, but word is they want to add more speed at WR and have been trying to move up for that, so thinking Mitchell could be a guy here not previously believed to get to this pick.  

     

    I really did not have the time to put into this third version as I wanted, in fact, its a minor miracle I even got it done TBH.  So excuse craziness and any errors that I may have missed as I moved guys and teams around the board.  

     

    But it was fun to cook up some creativity vs the more likely scenarios.  

    • Awesome! (+1) 1

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Logic said:


    Disagree. You talk about him like he wasn't actually a good college football player.

    He was a freshman breakout and posted three years of good production at Texas.

    But honestly...I don't want to spend the second best day of the football year arguing about any prospects. I've done enough of that the past few months. Today is a day for joy and pizza and booing Roger Goodell.

    We'll stick with "agree to disagree" on Worthy, and we can check back in with each other as his NFL career goes along.

     

     

    Yeah all good dude...but the college resume stuff isn't a great counter point as the first round draft history is littered with the corpses of stud college players at big schools who flamed out in the NFL.  

     

    Hey, thats the beauty of the draft, lots of opinions and no facts (facts being NFL on field experience)...just hopes and dreams for all.  Gonna be a fun night, this is one of the more exciting and interesting overall drafts in a while.  Enjoy bud

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    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

    I think the issue is if the fastest guy hits, you automatically have one of the best weapons in football.

     

    it’s a ceiling v floor argument

     

    Agree, but Worthy size limits his role at the next level IMHO.  Guys like Hill and Tank Dell play bigger than their size, Worthy doesn't and the lack of strength I think is going to limit his ability at the next level.  And guys like Tank are more the exception than the rule on top of that.  For a team like say Dallas, I can see him being a great addition potentially opposite Lamb, on turf, etc.  But for a team looking for a WR1...I don't think he is that dude.

    • Agree 1

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, Logic said:

    Just to circle back to previous Xavier Worthy discussions. 

    Not that it should be at all shocking that the fastest guy in combine history would go in round 1, but...Vegas seems to think that's what's about to happen.
     

     


    Too bad the fastest guy in combine history doesn’t translate to the field and play like the fastest player in history.  Too much is being made about his straight line speed in shorts IMHO.  Actual game day speed is made up of more than a forty time.  Meanwhile he only caught 6 of the 23 deep ball targets and only caught 5 of his 21 contested catch targets.  40% of his snaps were in slot, and 21% of his targets were screens.  
     

    Worthy is going to get over drafted and most likely be a complimentary piece somewhere than a lead dog.  

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    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    My concerns on Worthy further explained on his 2023 season:

    1. Only caught 6 of his 23 deep ball targets.
    2. Only caught 5 of his 21 contested targets.
    3. Working over the middle of the field he had some drops and incompletions by alligator arming some opportunities, which with his frame that is not surprising.  
    4. 40% of his snaps were from the slot.
    5. 21% of his targets were screens.

    Im not gonna hate taking him, I mean the speed is exciting.  But this guy plays to his size as compared to someone like Tank Dell or Tyreek Hill who are typical guys brought up when talking about Worthy.  But both those guys both play bigger than their frame and are stronger for their size than Worthy is.  

     

    So where my concern comes from is the WR room makeup overall.  We are a team who already has 3 guys in Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid who are going to all be commanding Slot snaps...adding a WR in the draft who played 40% of his snaps in the slot and has not shown great deep ball skills makes me a bit concerned about the how these guys blend together.  

     

    Again, if we end up taking him first, I won't be pissed, but I will be concerned on where we are going to get size and toughness from on our offense outside Allen when the weather gets bad and the games get more physical in the playoffs.  

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    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, alg said:

    I rarely post, but feel I owe the community an outlandish projection. And I have earned the right.

    - KNEW that Allen was the Josh before the pick when 90% of this board had Rosen.

    - Picked Oliver as the target.

    - Sorta knew Kinnkaid was the man.

    - Strongly believed Diggs would be traded even though everyone claimed the cap was a no-go.

    - IDK, I may be in Beane's head ... that's why I need to type this. With that out of the way:

     

    Setting the stage:

    - Most teams now regard Malik Nabers as the #1 WR

    - MHJ dropped a bit due to non-combine participation.

    - Rome is showing up on more mocks out of the top 10.

    - AZ is going to cash in on a trade-down.

    - And if AZ doesn't, the Chargers will.

    - LAC could go WR, but almost everyone expects Joe Alt.

    - The Giants likely shut out of QB convo, will go WR

    - TN is all about an OT. Maybe like LAC.

    - Bills signed L Collins.

    - Diggs was not the only player feeling their oats on Twitter. D Dawkins was there too with his predictions. And post-season, with the googly eyes hoping he would get his extension. 3x20m.

    - LAC wants to move down, and TN needs OT too.

     

    The Terms:

    - If the Bills believe they have a replacement on the roster for Dawkins, he will be used as trade bait for LAC/TN.

    - Bills could then make that trade without exhausting this and next year's draft capital.

    - 28, 60, 2025 2nd for 1.5/7 + 4th.

     

    Projection:

    - 1-4 QB

    - LAC - Joe Alt

    - NYG select - Nabers, a diva in waiting. He will make Diggs and his passive-aggressive antics look like a straight-shooting choirboy.

    - Bills via TN - MHJ.

     

    I may be overestimating Dawkins' return. And of course, misreading the tea leaves. But that is my Mighty Kreskin moment for the 2024 NFL Draft.

     

     


    So what are you saying the offer is exactly because it looks like you’re saying Dawkins plus a bounty of picks still.

    Lions extend St. Brown (4 years, 120 mil, 77 gtd)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    36 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

     

     

     

    The crazy thing is that he's sort of a Khalil Shakir comp.    6' tall T-Rex armed slot receiver who has transitioned gradually more outside and put up big numbers.    Maybe @Alphadawg7 is selling Khalil way short.  ;)    And truth is........guys who compare to St. Brown basically never turn into anything at the NFL level.   His list of physical comps is a bunch of players who never made it.

     

     

     

     

    The NFL is always evolving, and as I think as it does players and the attributes they are able to succeed with will too.  And while certain attributes may not be ideal, the right player who has that extra something to get there, over come, and reach their potential can still succeed at high levels.  And I do very much think Shakir has that extra something to get the most out of his talent.  

     

    Also, I love St. Brown and his story.  I knew he was gonna be a star and was my kind of player when I watched him on Hard Knocks between how he finished hot the season before, how hard he trained and worked out with his dad, and how he knew every WR drafted ahead of him and had that chip on his shoulder.   Which he very much did and helped me win some championships that year in fantasy as I targeted him and got him in most my leagues.  

     

    Will Shakir get to his level...I don't know, but I do know that I wouldn't count him out on doing so either.  

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    TSW Mock Draft 3.0 - Completed!

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

     

    They are in a no lose position because they trade back or they get Marvin Harrison (or possibly Nabers as some think they prefer him). If I were them I wouldn't do the Giants trade down. I'm only interested in getting a major haul to give up Harrison. But they may well decide otherwise. 

     

    I also don't think Mitchell gets to #20 either. But half a chance Arnold might and I'd have been interested in him there too. Was more just an example of how you have to play the draft as it goes not as you think it will go. Because there are always surprises.

     

    Yeah, totally agree. Honestly what AZ does at 4 starts to get impacted even with what Commanders do at 2 and then again with what NE does at 3.  Its 100% gonna come down how the draft falls at the top in how AZ handles their pick and how aggressive other teams are to get to their pick based on what QB gets there.  

     

    Gonna be a fun draft, and I also agree on Arnold.  All in all, AZ IMHO is setup maybe the best of any team in this draft this year between where they pick and how many picks they have coming in that are in first 3 rounds.  

    TSW Mock Draft 3.0 - Completed!

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Alphadawg7

    With the 21st pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select:  Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

     

    CLICK HERE FOR HIGHLIGHTS

     

    Look, we are the fastest team in the NFL, but we also know our QB Tua is kind of a little soft princess where if he can't get to his early reads he turns back into a pumpkin.  All this speed means nothing if we can't get our soft as Charmin 1 read QB some time to throw the ball because if we have to rely on his improvisation skills one more season then all of us on the coaching staff and FO are gonna be trying to start OnlyFan foot fetish accounts next year to pay the bills.  Our DL is full of guys who may not start in the XFL, let alone start in the NFL, but all the guys we would consider here were off the board.  So the choice was easy to go get a mammoth of a man to protect our Oompa Lumpa of a QB so he has a chance to not suck and blow 4 game divisional leads late in the season and actually beat teams with a .500 or better record. 

     

    @stinky fingerand the Philadelphia Piss Drunk Eagles are on the clock.  Here is comedian Artie Lange telling one of the funniest and best Eagles fan stories of all time for context:

     

     

     

     

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    TSW Mock Draft 3.0 - Completed!

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    58 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

    With the 20th pick in the 2024 TSW Mock Draft version 3.0, brought to you in association with @Virgil Sports and Media Enterprises, the Arizona Cardinals select:

     

    Quinyon Mitchell, Cornerback, Toledo

     

    I didn't necessarily plan to trade up here but watching the board as all those offensive tackles, quarterbacks, wide receivers and defensive linemen went it became very apparent to me that the value on the board was at corner - where it just so happens the Cardinals have a huge hole. They signed Sean Murphy-Bunting in free agency who is just about serviceable to play one side, but Starling Thomas V, a former UDFA out of UAB is the presumptive starter at the other spot. They need an upgrade. Mitchell is the top corner on my board and has the potential to develop into an elite corner in the NFL with his size, speed and competitiveness. Trading up 7 spots for him while swapping one of my three thirds for a fourth was a no-brainer. 

     

    I think what is most interesting about this scenario is @Alphadawg7 did the Cardinals in v2.0, traded back at both picks and ended up with Odunze and Wiggins. I've stood pat at #4 and traded up and snagged Harrison and Mitchell. Both scenarios I think would make Arizona better immediately. Proof that there are multiple ways to play it and you have to let the way the board falls drive your decision making over and above getting fixated on players or positions. 

     

    The aforementioned @Alphadawg7 and the Miami Dolphins are now on the clock.

     

    Yeah both scenarios would be a great draft for Arizona...my only issue is with it is that I don't think Mitchell gets to the 20th pick.  

     

    But the net of both our moves were a little more different:  In yours you got MHJ and Mitchell and have 2 thirds left and 1 fourth.  In mine, I got Odunze and Wiggins and have 5 thirds (4 of them early thirds) and two early 4th round picks.  And if that trade really happened between AZ and Giants, AZ likely gets more than what I took in that mock because of the bidding war will drive the price up for a QB.  

     

    So I would still prefer to the trade backs if I am AZ, but either way, if the draft went the way it did for you, it would still be stellar and something they would be excited about.  

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    52 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

     

    I thought (I could be wrong) that NFL.com used the official data from the combine.  They typically lack data from players who didn't participate in drills at the combine, for example, even if data from their college pro days is out there.  Of course a typo is possible anywhere, I guess.

     

    I'm not paying so much attention to his height and weight, as to his scouting report because Zierlein usually says stuff I nod about if I come back to it in a couple years.  I "get it" that there's an argument to be made for BPA, but taken to its extreme obviously you could wind up with a team full of DE and no DT or something.  So "need" has to crawl into there somehow.

    Like many here, my perception of the Bills current best receivers (Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir) is that all of them do their best work with a free release, and none of them are at their best trying to win a release against press man on the boundary.  Samuel can do it, but I think I read his most recent years have been ~75% of his snaps from the slot.  Shakir can play on the boundary but at best "he has to demonstrate" against press man and his short arms handicap him there.

     

    IMO, we really have lacked someone with the tools to win against "sticky" physical coverage even with Diggs on the team the last couple of years and it's cost us in playoffs.  It certainly cost us in 2019 when our top receivers were 5'10 John Brown and 5'8" Cole Beasley, and Allen wound up directing critical throws to Duke Williams and Pat DiMarco in the playoffs 'cuz Brown and Beasley were being erased.

     

    So when I read stuff like " lacks play strength and release quickness to defeat a quality NFL press" and "lacks the physical tools to catch when contested and needs to prove he can hold up to a more physical brand of football" as well as "needs to improve efficiency and quickness getting off the ball.  Lack of hand strength gets him bullied on contested catches......Takes reps off when he’s not expecting the throw to come his way......Fails to adjust his speed to ball placement consistently enough." I have a hard time seeing him as the right match of "need-adjusted BPA" or whatever it is being called now.

     

    Of course, as Beane has pointed out, there are different ways to fill needs, so if he falls to us and we've rated him as BPA because they have enthusiasm for his potential, So Be It but I'm going to have uncomfortable CJ Spiller flashbacks if the Bills trade up for the guy.
     

    I honestly can't pretend to know enough about college football to have a meaningful personal opinion about who we should draft, but I do have views about where the Bills current roster has shown itself lacking the previous season and likely to lack after new-league-year roster moves.

     

     

     

     

     

    This is exactly my concerns with Worthy.  One of our biggest issues is that our offense has NOT been suited for tough physical games, especially in bad weather.  We want an outdoor stadium then you better have a team that excels in the bad weather if you want that to be an advantage and not a disadvantage.  When the howling winds, rain, snow, etc come the first thing that gets negated is speed and the first thing that gets magnified if toughness and physical play.  If we already had some size and strength on this team, then great, go get that elite speed guy.  But we don't, not even at RB.

     

    I just feel like come late season and postseason, we need more toughness than just Josh Allen.  

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