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Posts posted by Alphadawg7
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12 minutes ago, Logic said:
If the Cardinals like all three wide receivers, or even prefer Nabers to MHJ (as some teams in the NFL apparently do), or have those Odunze even with those guys on their board...then I could see them doing this. It's not like they WOULDN'T be walking away with an alpha WR. They would.I mean there is a good chance in the real draft they trade down with the Vikings and don't pick again until 11 where there is no assurances either of the big 3 WR's are on the board. But they would also have 3 first round picks at min at that point and could take say Odunze or Thomas...or go and get a stud CB or DL prospect, 2 other biggest needs and then go get Thomas after and still have pick 27 to add yet another player.
This is why I have found it puzzling a lot of people have AZ locked in on MHJ at 4 because moving back does a lot more for their team who isn't a WR away from competing and they still get an elite WR prospect in each of the likely trade back scenarios.
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Just now, section122 said:
The cards are seeking 3 first round picks to come off of 4. I would be shocked if they gave up on MHJ for this little of a return. I understand the points work, I just don't think they would do this.
That said, they are still positioned to get Nabers at 6 and got extra ammo. 5 has to go to Minnesota for a QB now which leads the Cards to safely still get a great WR prospect so maybe it isn't as crazy as I think.
The Cardinals are not a MHJ away from contending as the roster is a bottom tier roster, they can safely make this trade back and still get an elite WR prospect, and TBH, they don't even need to go WR at this pick, they have 2 first round picks and now 2 3rds, and 2 4ths later too for them to double down on a WR.
And, if they made this trade and Giants didn't go QB and went MHJ, they is nothing saying they still wouldn't trade back with say Vikings and get another first (giving them 3 total) if Chargers take Nabers/Odunze. Cardinals could still take someone like Thomas and have 2 more first rounders to go with their 3rd and 4th round picks they just stacked.
But I know Kirby hates McCarthy, so Vikings won't be trading up in this draft with Chargers or AZ lol. In the real draft though, both Chargers and AZ picks would be prime spots for Vikings to go get a QB (unless they also don't like McCarthy lol).
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9 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
With the 4th pick of the NFL Draft, the New York Giants select: MARVIN HARRISON JR, WR, OHIO ST.
Not a QB?
Nope. Here's the thing. We need playmakers. We let Saquon walk. We have a few role players at WR. And we have an aging TE that isn't even sure if he's playing next year. This offense isn't a QB away. Our best playmaker was Motor Singletary.
We liked all of the "Big 3 WRs" on the board but would much rather give up a little extra to dictate who we take rather than have the choice made for us. Our jobs are on the line.
Enter Harrison. Yes, he chose to not workout at the Combine or his Pro Day. But he's been working on being "season ready" in place of the underwear games of an NFL recruits off season. Coming from remarkable NFL WR bloodlines, this explosive WR is ready to hit the ground running (and catching) on Day 1.
@TOboyand the Los Angeles Chargers are on the clock.
I never thought to ask you who you were gonna take at 4, just assumed it was McCarthy. So this one was a fun surprise.
I do think that the two most likely teams to make a trade with the Cardinals are the Giants and Vikings come the real draft. But I would assume the Giants would do it to get a QB, but maybe you are on to something, they are in need of playmakers in the worst way.
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OFFICIAL TRADE: Cardinals and Giants are swapping picks and @BuffaloBillyG and the New York Giants are now on the clock. Details of the trade below.
Cardinals send:
#4, #138, #162 (1863.6 value points)
Giants send:#6, #70, and #107 (1920 value points)
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TRADE ALERT: Arizona Cardinals have submitted a trade for approval. Twitter is swirling with Rumors that it is the Bills and includes Josh Allen and multiple first round picks headed to AZ. Rumors started flying that someone associated with the Bills named @KDIGGZhas been pushing for this after tiring of Josh Allens lack of offseason workouts. Its all rumors right now, but thats what people thought about Diggs and look what happened...stay tuned to find out the mystery team.
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2 hours ago, Beck Water said:
The improvement in his 2nd year really impressed me - outstanding. He trains with Eric Moulds in the off-season and maybe the Bills ought to encourage some other guys to go there.
Here's a clip of him training and an OBD interview with Moulds.
He has also wowed guys like Jordan Palmer and Kyle Allen when they have seen him train or trained with him.
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1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:
The Cardinals need a WR 1 on a rookie deal.
I see no way they move this pick or trade back.
Once we get to Atlanta things will start to happen.
You do know this is maybe the best WR draft in NFL history right and there isn't a place anywhere in the first round where a team can't get a true high quality WR1 prospect.
So the Cardinals are currently weighing all options on a team utterly devoid of talent
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Just now, Logic said:
If I was running the Vikings, I'd have already sent you my two 1sts for this pick
And honestly that’s what I think is going to happen on draft day. Or maybe even Giants to beat Vikes to a QB if they make the decision to get a QB. -
7 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:
This is not a shot at anyone really and your best bet is the Vikings obviously but the problem with trades in a two rounder is the trading down team really won’t benefit anymore so because they will never be able to utilize the picks nor will the trading up team want to do it because they’ll make one pick and be done.
That’s why I like 7 rounder mocks with trades the problem with that is most GMs check out by round 3 because the players they know in the process drops off a ton.
The one I do on another site typically does it but isn’t doing it this year because no one is leading it. The guy used to run it had his own draft website but moved to Chins to teach English.
My favorite one I ever did was a 5 rounds in 5 nights where it was in a chat with two podcasters where you would private message your trades and picks and they would announce them like a real draft. It was pretty cool
Well the object is make the best moves for the team, not make the most picks for fun. But I get it too.
Now shut your **** blocking mouth, you’re putting salt in my game 😂🤣😂
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One more pick away just like a deep booger. Cardinals number 4 pick is still open for bids for those looking for that elusive QB. Don’t wait and miss out on a QB like a loser
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Making it known now…Arizona Cardinals will listen to offers for the #4 pick.
So if you’re looking for a QB hit me on my Motorola pager with the code 80085
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7 minutes ago, Virgil said:
Just need a Ravens owner and we are good to go.
If someone wants a second team, let me know
I’ll take the Ravens as a 2nd team if you need it -
4 hours ago, HappyDays said:
Here you go @Alphadawg7. Today's Locked on Bills episode was entirely about Shakir.
He notes that out of every WR who ever measured 29" or shorter arms, the only ones to have meaningful careers were Hunter Renfrow, Isaiah McKenzie, and Braxton Berrios. Shakir would be the first to ever make it as even a 50% outside WR with that arm length.
Thanks for sharing. One key difference is Shakir is built quite a bit different than those other ones. I think he can be the outlier, I really do in terms of overall career.I don’t think he should be a primary boundary WR though or even there 50%. I said he can move around but will still eat primarily from the slot. I just think he can do more from the slot than a typical “slot” only guy and be a dangerous weapon there.
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48 minutes ago, HaldimandBills said:
Who are you taking?
Polk or Coleman?
McConkey or Pearsall?
Thomas Jr or Franklin?
Mitchell or Legette?
Thats not even mentioning
Burton, Wilson, Swift, Washington, Rice
This draft is loaded
PolkMcConkey
Thomas Jr
Mitchell
Yes this draft is loaded which is why I don’t like the idea of an expensive move up.
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1 hour ago, NewEra said:
Ja’lynn Polk. He has great hands, possesses physicality, run blocking ability, contested catches and is a threat downfield. And he already has an nfl body. That’s my guy.
Came here to say this. He has great ball skills and knows how to go up and get the ball, something of great value that isn't on our roster right now.
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8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:
I did a deep dive on the non-Patriot winners of the SB going back to 2006. Lots of late first rounders and second rounders across the board, and no one in the top half of the first round except for Mike Evans. One BIG caveat: Atlanta should never have lost to NE in the Feb 2017 SB, and they had a top ten pick at WR (Julio Jones). Also, if Aaron Donald doesn't destroy the crappy o-lineman in front of him, Joe Burrow hits top ten pick Ja'maar Chase for the game winning TD because Ramsey fell down. But I digress.
2006: Indy - Harrison (1st, 18th overall), Reggie Wayne (30th overall)
2008: Pitt - Santonio Holmes (1st round, 25th overall), Hines Ward (3rd round)
2009: New Orleans - Robert Meacham (1st; 27th overall), Devery Henderson (2nd; 50th overall), Colsten (7th rounder)
2010: GB - Jordy Nelson (2nd; 36th overall); Greg Jennings (2nd, 52nd overall), Driver (seventh rounder), James Jones (3rd rounder)
2012: Baltimore - Torrey Smith (2nd, 58th overall) and a bunch of random free agents (e.g., Boldin)
2013: Seattle - Golden Tate (2nd, 60th overall), Doug Baldwin (undrafted), Jermaine Kearse (undrafted)
2015: Denver - Demariyus Thomas (1st, 22nd overall), Emmanuel Sanders (free agent)
2017: Philly - Nelson Agholor (1st, 20th overall), Alshon Jeffrey (FA), Torrey Smith (FA)
2019: KC - Tyreek Hill (5th rounder but obviously a top ten talent with off-field issues), Mecole Hardiman (2nd, 56th overall), Demarcus Robinson (4th), Sammy Watkins (FA)
2020: TB: Mike Evans (1st, 8th overall), Godwin (3rd), Scotty Miller (6th), Antonio Brown (FA)
2021: Rams - Van Jefferson (2nd, 50th overall), Cupp (3rd), Woods (FA), OBJ (FA)
2022: KC - Skyy Moore (2nd, 54th overall), Valdes-Scantling (FA), Juju (FA), Justin Watson (FA), Mecole Hardimon (2nd)
2023 KC - Rice (2nd, 55th overall), see 2022 KC (above) for the rest
Anyway, food for thought.
Nice work...and I think it only further shows that there is just no proven history that going all in to get a WR is the recipe. Granted, there were a couple near misses like Julio Jones who absolutely should have won...although the irony is not lost on me that the REASON they lost was because they kept THROWING the ball haha. Oh Kyle Shannahan what were you thinking.
And when you go down this list, what stands out the most is that very few teams had an elite WR1, most had someone ranging from pretty good to pretty meh. Just further showing that maybe this board puts too much emphasis on getting that absolutely elite WR.
And to be honest, it gets back to the original point by the OP...that maybe the best recipe is not that elite WR who commands a lot of targets and there is an effort to always get them the ball. History seems to show that maybe not having to force feed someone plays out better on the field where the QB spreads the ball around multiple guys and takes what the defense is giving them.
21 minutes ago, BIGFOOTspaceman said:I would typically just skim a post this long but.....really well done sir. Great take. I was all for packaging picks for a WR (out of frustration more than anything) but you have legitimately changed my mind.
Ha, well thanks for the time to read it, I am glad you at least didn't feel like it was a waste of your time
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4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Where are the examples of teams that were seen as on the cusp that made a big move for a WR that failed?
Bills fans point to the Sammy Watkins trade but that team hadn't made the playoffs in like 14 years and didn't have a QB.
The Julio Jones trade ultimately didn't yield a SB WIN.........but he was great and they reached a SB that they probably don't otherwise.
Same with the Eagles and TO..........he elevated their game offensively and they got to a SB with him.
There just aren't many examples that match the criteria one way or another so it seems like a throwaway kinda' post to hang a hat on.
Randy Moss didn't cost much but he helped turn the Patriots from a defense-first team into the top offense in NFL history and got to a SB. OBJ to the same extent did have a huge impact on the Rams winning a SB. Moves for WR's have often paid dividends, in general.
I don't have any desire for the Bills to trade up but the idea that it's a proven-bad formula isn't supported.
I get where you are coming from, but Owens and Moss don't qualify for what I am saying. Eagles didn't trade a bounty for TO, nor did the Patriots to get Moss who only spent a 4th round pick. And of course, they never won a Super Bowl either. So not that your points aren't valid, I think maybe you misunderstood the basis of my point of when teams give up a ton of draft capital to go get a WR that then diminishes their ability to continue to build the rest of the team. For example, anytime someone can go get a "Randy Moss" player for a 4th round pick and has the cap room to make it work, its a no brainer. But how often does a trade up to draft Julio Jones or big trade for a Tyreek Hill result in a Super Bowl? Answer is quite frankly never has.
The reason I bring this up is we have to weigh the cost vs the return. Is it really necessary to go get a top 15 WR in the draft and give up 2-4 premium picks to do so? Well, only one team in the last 20 years even had a top 15 drafted WR1 in Mike Evans despite there being some great WR drafts over that span with some great WR's to come out of them early in those drafts.
Consider the year we got Diggs. That draft, everyone here wanted us to use trade the farm to move up to get one of Ruggs, Jeudy, or Lamb because everyone knew none would make it to us, including Beane. Well...lets see how that worked out:
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Bills - we sent a pretty big trade package to Minny to get Diggs and then paid him a lot of money while Allen was on a rookie deal. Diggs emereged as a top 5, arguably top 3 WR during at least 2 of those years, and we only made it out of the 2nd round once in 4 years.
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What if we had instead traded up for one of the big 3:
- Ruggs and Jeudy - Ruggs is in Jail and Jeudy sucks compared to his hype and has been a mediocre WR.
- Lamb - Was being questioned if he was truly a WR1 until finally this year, his 4th season. Dallas has won even less than we have and they had multiple seasons with Cooper and Lamb.
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What if we had instead traded up for one of the big 3:
- Best WR's in the draft ended up being people on the board at our original pick in Jefferson and Higgins. Lamb finally entered the debate now with Higgins on who is better, but up until this season it was Jefferson and Higgins.
Trading up in that draft would have been a huge mistake and not returned the value of Diggs. Trading for Diggs worked out to help us win more games, but ultimately it delivered 4 disappointing playoff exits, none of which was because of our WR group.
- We lost in 2020 because we were the worse team
- 2021 we lost because of our defense
- 2022 we lost in the trenches and not being able to run the ball in bad weather
- 2023 we lost because he had no linebackers and couldn't even get Mahomes jersey dirty.
The most correct thing to do was not trade for Diggs and stay put and take Jefferson. Doesn't mean the Diggs trade was bad or wrong, but not giving up draft capital and taking Jefferson on a rookie contract was more correct. But, again, Diggs trade makes more sense as no one knows how those rookies will turn out until they hit the field.
Look around at other big moves to get a WR...Even a lesser cost of Hopkins to AZ when he was arguably the best WR in the NFL and at least top 3, did very little for them although they only gave a 2nd. Clevelands big trade for OBJ didn't do much either, neither did Antonio Brown to the Raiders, or Amari Cooper also in Cle. I mean the examples can keep going on, I am just trying to name more of the most recent ones.
To be 100% clear, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do. I would love to get one of MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, or Thomas...I just don't believe we should gut a lot of premium draft capital to do so because this team needs more than just one of them to get over the hump, its proven that already the last 4 years. And when you factor in how great this draft is, historically great, maybe the best of all time in talent and depth...it gets even more illogical to gut our draft capital on a team who needs to keep restocking young talent given for cap management.
IMHO next years first should be really near our max, and only because we have two 2nd's next year now, so moving the first hurts less. But even so...imagine in 2025 having our first and then probably an early 2nd (Vikings) and of course our 2nd all next year for this roster, we could really load some talent up on this team. That could be what puts us over the top even. And we still would have added some exciting WR(s) in this draft too.
For the record...if on draft day I see we make some big expensive move to get someone like Nabers, I won't be mad, adding Nabers would be incredibly exciting. I will however be concerned that the cost may outweigh the reward because we will need to keep building through the draft to find playmakers and elite talent elsewhere on the roster because we won't have cap room to sign them in FA.
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Bills - we sent a pretty big trade package to Minny to get Diggs and then paid him a lot of money while Allen was on a rookie deal. Diggs emereged as a top 5, arguably top 3 WR during at least 2 of those years, and we only made it out of the 2nd round once in 4 years.
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Arizona, Eagles, Patriots
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Just now, RyanC883 said:
you are likely correct. The flip side, though, is that we get 2 great WRs this year, and have an offense and D that can compete this year, and use cap space on FA D next year--and we have been mildly better at FA DL than drafting it. Along these lines, I'm in the Thomas/Leggette or Persall camp over costly trade FA WR and 2nd round pick. My ideal situation is trade up for top 3 WR in the draft using next year 1st (which should be low) and draft another WR like Anias Smith or Cowing in Rd. 3 or 4.
I do think its possible they could draft 2 WR's, all I was saying to the other poster was that we are not trading up in the first for a WR then again trading up in the 2nd for another WR.
I would cap our trade up at next years first and only for one of the top 4 guys. And the only reason I would say we can include next years first is because of the extra 2nd we got from the Diggs trade making that more palatable. This draft is too good and rich to over pay to go too far up for a WR.
Lets say we did go WR with both our first 2 picks...scenario one we take McConkey at 28 or on a small trade back, I wouldn't mind seeing them then go get someone like Legette or Polk after. If we took someone like Mitchell at 28, then I wouldn't mind seeing them go get someone like McConkey, Pearsall, etc after.
Personally, I think we will nab one WR in either round 1 or 2 depending on the draft falls then probably not take another one until day 3, if we even take another one (Beane may still want to add another vet to the room instead).
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56 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
I'm not gonna go out of my way vehemently defending him. His failure to invest in WR and leave us in a desperate situation is worth criticizing. But I'm defending him under the assumption he is going to make a real investment at two starting WRs, whether in the draft or one of the remaining free agents or by trade. If he does, that will be two offseasons in a row where he finally made serious investments in pass catching weapons (although I am still totally confused about his failure to sign Hopkins last year). That tells me he has learned something even if it doesn't excuse past mistakes.
Also it's pretty undeniable that the Bills had a championship caliber roster at least once over the past 4 seasons. 2021 for sure, probably 2022 if not for a series of mishaps that befell the roster.
We had a better WR group the past 4 seasons than many super bowl winning teams have had in the past 20 to 30 years. We had a top 5 WR (arguably top 3 a couple seasons) where only a few teams in the NFL can ever make that claim. We had Davis who by WR2 standards put up WR2 numbers despite his limitations. We had one of the best slot WR's in the NFL for part of that in Cole Beasley. Last year we had a rookie TE set team records, a 2nd year WR lead the NFL in catch rate, efficiency, and yards per target. We still had Diggs and Davis too along with a breakout star in Cook.
People talk about the receiving group Allen has had like its been bad or bottom of the league and its just remotely close to reality. What really gets me, is this notion that we didn't advance because we didn't sign Hopkins like no one actually remembers the KC playoff game. We lost because we started a journeyman LB who had just been on his couch a few weeks earlier and the KC defense just literally attacked our LB's all game long. We lost because Chris Jones blew up Dawkins into Josh Allens foot a half second before Josh got a sure TD strike off to Shakir causing him to come up short. We lost because we lost key players on defense and couldn't make a play when we needed to stop KC. We lost because we couldn't get Mahomes jersey dirty and didn't win in the trenches.
None of our losses was because of WR's unless you want to point the finger to our top end WR1 who dropped a pass 70 yards downfield. But even then, we had other chances to win that game and the team failed in other ares.
2020 - This team was not on the level to compete with KC yet and we lost bad on both sides of the ball to the Chiefs.
2021 - Allen had 9 TD's in 2 games...we were eliminated because our defense gave up 17 points in a matter of the final minutes of the game and OT.
2022 - We lost because Bengals dominated the trenches on both sides of the ball in a bad weather game where Dorsey was grossly outcoached and had no idea how to run the ball in bad elements.
2023 - We lost because (see recap above)
I get it...we ALL want Allen to have as many weapons as possible. But this notion we havent won a Super Bowl because Beane ignored weapons for Josh is just not accurate IMHO and greatly exaggerated around here.
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Here is the reality no one wants to see...
Never in NFL history has a large investment to acquire a WR via trade, FA, or the draft has ever translated into a Super Bowl win. No team has given up multiple premium picks to trade for a proven top end WR and paid them big money and gone on to win a SB (which is what some want us to do to get Auiyuk, Higgins, etc). No team has ever signed a FA WR to top of the league money and then turned that into a SB win. No team has ever made a big trade up in the first round using multiple premium picks and won a SB (which many want to send multiple firsts and multiple 2nds to get up into the top 12).
There is no example of a major investment like that in a WR ever leading to a SB trophy. There are however countless examples where teams have won the Super Bowl without having a top 5 WR. In the past 20 Super Bowls only 1 team had a WR1 drafted in the top 15 of the draft (Mike Evans).
I want to find a WR1 for Josh too out of this draft, but people need to cool their jets on how much they are willing to give up to go get one. WR has never in NFL history, including the passing era, ever proven to be the "missing piece" for any championship team.
And lets be real...Bills have had a top 5 WR the better part of the past 4 seasons, some would say top 3 WR for at least 2 of those seasons, and we only made it past the 2nd round once and never reached a Super Bowl. Going back to last year, we were 5-5 and firmly on the outside looking in regarding the playoffs when we treated Diggs like a high volume WR1. Once we went away from that we rallied to win the division and the 2 seed.
Allen also had an INT% over 4% targeting Diggs and Davis while around 2% targeting everyone else. There are a number of reasons for that, but a big part of that is Allen taking what the defense gives him with everyone else rather than forcing it into Diggs or Davis.
Allen is him. He doesn't need an elite WR to be an elite QB, in fact, Josh is at his best when he just goes out and makes plays without having to consider who he is getting the ball too.
Yes...go draft a WR early in this draft in round 1 or 2. Yes, if there is a chance to make a small trade up to get Brian Thomas you can still pull that trigger. NO you DONT reach at 28 for just the sake of taking a WR if there is a better player at another position on the board. Yes, you can still get your WR in the 2nd, even make a less costly trade up to do so or even a trade back from 28 if that makes more sense to Beane and get back a 3rd or something.
Bottom line is we do not need to mortgage our future for a WR, this has worked 0 times for a success rate of 0% and a fail rate of 100% in NFL history. ESPECIALLY in a draft this rich at WR where stud WR's will be coming out of it likely on day 1, day 2, and day 3.
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On 4/1/2023 at 5:36 PM, CircleTheWagons99 said:
This, KC still had Kelce….
Who was old and in decline last year just to still win the SB again. -
8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I would be willing to take a flier on him. I think someone suggested a swap of failed first rounders - Burks for Elam - a month or two back and I don't hate that idea. But I wouldn't be giving much up for him.
I would rather keep Elam. He has shown more than Burks has at this point and with Tre gone and Bedford coming back from injury, Elam also has more value to the team right now and has a chance to compete to start.
Burks would be competing at bottom of WR depth chart here to be a WR 4/5 right now with Hollis after we draft a WR. And if we draft 2 WRs he could end up 5th or 6th on the depth chart. Hollis also brings blocking and ST value over Burks too.
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4 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:
I agree with you on the not trading up twice. Sure, they did it in 2018 to get Josh and Edmunds but they’re already without a 3rd. I also don’t see our defensive-minded head coach going for WRs with the 1st 2 picks without having that 3rd.IMO Curtis Samuel will overall be a better WR for this team. His versatility will allow them to do more things with him. Whether they move up for a B. Thomas or just stay put and get an A. Mitchell, they can wait until the 4th or beyond to grab a 2nd rookie. They can also still pick up a decent veteran free agent like DJ Chark to fill out the WR room.
Agree…And to be clear, I’m not saying we would never trade up twice. I was just saying we aren’t trading up twice in first 2 rounds to take 2 WRs.- 1
TSW Mock Draft 2.0 - Completed
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
No trade here...Im just weighing options right now and kind of playing some draft scenarios out to see what direction I want to go here. I will be keeping this pick, would have only moved it if Vikings wanted it, and I already know Kirby has no interest in McCarthy even at 11 let alone on a move up HA.
So pick will be in shortly...