Alphadawg7
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Posts posted by Alphadawg7
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https://bleacherreport.com/post/sports-betting/913586c7-723c-4be5-b20a-abdda04c4112
Jayden going 2nd odds decrease and Mayes increase.
Like I’ve been saying, I’m hearing Maye is getting momentum in Washington
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10 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
If he is speaking the truth… I find it interesting that he hasn’t spoken to the Top 10 teams yet …. Nothing wrong with at least asking the price …
It definitely came across pretty authentic if you watch the whole interview and I think it’s because he knows for a team to move back to 28 is going to cost a lot as teams won’t have a lot of interest to move back that far, if any at all. -
8 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:
I think you may be falling into the trap of believing what is said during the free lying period. Beane is setting the ground work for the worst case scenario - in case none of the trades he wants materialize. He is setting up low expectations by design and if he can produce it will just make him look good.
As it stands now this is by far the worst Beane has done year over year for the on-paper talent. It's not over, but as it currently stands this is a drastic rebuild.
Respectfully disagree, Beane has always been pretty straight forward with this stuff and he is echoing what he has always said and done. -
Take aways:
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I do not think Beane is even thinking about moving into the top 10 to get one of the big 3 WR.
- He said he would take any call, but he also said teams in the top 10 don't generally call teams down at 28.
- When asked about him calling them, he mocked them even wanting to take his call and made it clear he hasn't called them.
- Worth noting as well, Bills have no reported visits or meetings with MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze. We did reportedly meet once with Thomas.
- He is not a fan at all of moving a future first, which I will cover in comments below.
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I think he made it pretty clear as well that we are not going to be trading for a proven guy such as Aiyuk or Higgins as many have been wanting.
- Specifically said when we traded for Stef, Allen was an ascending player and the offense needed a guy like that.
- But that now with Allen ascended to the player he is, that is not a requirement and not necessary.
- He made it clear he is very comfortable making a small trade up to make sure he can get the guy he covets. So if there is one he wants where a small move up to go get him is on the table, I think he will pull that trigger.
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He also made it very clear he really does NOT want to move next years 1st, but did admit he would if the deal made sense to do it.
- Referenced regretting those kind of moves in the next draft when they did them in Carolina when the next draft came and the guy they gave up that first didn't really get them over the top.
- He also doesn't plan to move the 2nd we got for Diggs, but wouldn't rule it out if they felt the right deal was there.
- Between Josh, McD and Beane interviews, I think it was pretty clear they have a lot of confidence in the core of Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook. It is clear we are going after a WR in first 2 rounds, but I would not expect us to go back to back WR or take 2 early as some around here have suggested. If we take a 2nd one, I would expect it later like rounds 4 and on.
- Beane made it clear that trading back is very much in play at 28 and pointed out if they couldn't get Kincaid they had a real good trade back worked out he really liked.
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Also added he would love to add someone on the DL that can contribute this season.
- While he said it could be in the first, would have to see what is there at 28 in general, but went on to say he sees guys outside the first in this draft that can come in and contribute this year.
So what I came away with is that I think there is very little chance we are making a move to get MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze. It was also clear it was just as unlikely we are going after someone like Aiyuk, Higgins, etc either. And that has been my belief all along as well.
While I wouldn't say that anything he said rules out moving up into the teens to get Thomas (like say Jags at 17), I think it's a low possibility he goes up outside the 20's. The thing that most often stuck out was the reluctance on using high future picks to move up. I think Beane really likes the idea of having a first and two 2nd's next year and really prefers not trading them. And I do think that trading back is a very strong possibility for us to try and get a 3rd this year or maybe even a third 2nd for next year.
All in all this was a good listen...and Beane has a track record for being pretty straight forward and candid on these things, so I think he is shooting pretty straight with his comments like he always has.
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I do not think Beane is even thinking about moving into the top 10 to get one of the big 3 WR.
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36 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:
I appreciate the effort/thoughts. But from where I sit I would like McConkey over Franklin.
In any event, I hope this is just reviewing the draft (the early portion) and is not all that the FO does. A WR room of Franklin/Samuel/Shakir would be pathetic. Big time rebuild if this is the thought. I hope that's not the plan.
This kind of draft complements the trade for a real WR1. Sending a lower pick for a Metcalf/Godwin/DHop, maybe Sutton or DJ Moore. Then you have a WR1 and a Samuel/rookie (Franklin/McConkey) as WR2.
I am about to post a recap of Brandon Beanes press conference today. One of the take aways is that I think there is no chance he will be trading for an established WR. He specifically addressed how when we got Diggs, it was what the team needed with Allen being an ascending player. Then he very specifically stated that with Josh at the level he is now that he does not believe he needs that like he did when they went and got Diggs.
So I think you can scratch off any kind of trade for an established WR. I do like McConkey too, and I believe the Bills do as well since McConkey stated publicly he has met with them like 3 times now. But I went Franklin for 2 reasons...I don't think McConkey reaches us on that trade down and I do think there is substance to the Bills being high on Franklin.
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4 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:
I know people aren’t going to like it but as we get closer my gut feeling is telling me it’s going to be Keon Coleman after a trade down. There is a lot there that fits Buffalo and their philosophy
I don't know if he will be the pick, but they have shown significant interest in Coleman who also personally stated that of all his interviews the one with the Bills was the stand out one that went the best. The WR's they have shown the most interest in from meetings with them would be from what I can gather Franklin, Coleman, McConkey, Worthy, and Mitchell.
They did meet with Thomas, but reportedly only once and no reports of any meetings with the big 3.
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On 4/17/2024 at 8:14 AM, FLFan said:
I was not sure where else to post this but mods please merge if appropriate.
For those of you with Athletic access, Brugler’s 7 round mock draft posted today. Linked above. If you are not familiar with him, he publishes an excellent compendium and ranking of NFL draft prospects each year that can also be found on the Athletic. He has the Bills trading up with Jacksonville to 17 using their first this year, two fourths, and a second next year to take Brian Thomas. He has us with Cole Bishop, Safety in the second, and Javon Baker, WR in the third. This seems like an excellent result to me, but certainly interested in what the more knowledgeable draft gurus around here think.
I would be thrilled with Thomas in particular. Bishop seems more of a box safety but does have some cover skills as well. Baker is a potential replacement to Gabe’s role on this team, but with more ability to get open in intermediate routes. Good YAC ability as well.
My personal opinion this is unrealistic. I can not see Beane investing that much into one position of WR in this draft. Beane just spoke to the media today and one thing was very clear, he really isn't keen on moving next year picks to move up. He did say he would if the deal made sense, but he said in Carolina when they would do that they often found themselves regretting it the next year based on how the player turned out and who was on the board at the pick they would have had.
So anyone who thinks Beane is gonna trade up for Thomas and the for the 2nd time trade up into 3rd to get another WR is just not in touch with Beane and his draft philosophy.
He will pull the trigger on Thomas if he wants him, he said as much, that if the guy and the trade make sense, he isn't afraid to do it. But it was crystal clear they really need to want that guy to make a big move like that. And there is just no way after a move like that he is going to again trade up for another WR leaving him short on assets both this year and next year to help fill out other areas of big need.
Beane was also very clear he is high on Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook. So I don't think he feels this need or pressure to have to add 2 early.
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5 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:
This Austin Booker guy's situation is weird so it's a bit of a red flag. He's at Minnesota for two years redshirts the first, barely plays the second, transfers to Kansas and puts up 8 sacks in 12 games. Now he's coming out as a redshirt sophomore. He only played like 500 snaps in his college career. He's a long, lean athletic edge player with a crazy motor. He is raw in some ways but his rush technique is pretty advanced. I have no idea where he is going to go in the draft but Lance Zeirlein's comp for him is Maxx Crosby. He also did a nice job at the Senior Bowl. I think he is a pretty unique situation with a lot of potential.
He could fall or he could be overdrafted.
I took Austin in the first TSW mock with the Commanders, I really like him as a day 3 pick. Unfortunately, I don't think the Bills will have a shot at him unless they make some moves as I think the upside is too strong and someone is going to take him in the 3rd. If he gets to us in the 4th, I would love this pick. He is a classic low floor but high ceiling pick, and I think he is worth the gamble.
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4 minutes ago, msw2112 said:
While not a WR, I always think of Terrell Suggs in this situation. He ran a 4.84 at the combine and fell several spots in the draft. He was considered a top-3 talent, but dropped to 10 because of the slow 40 time. Suggs is currently 8th on the all-time sacks list and may soon find himself in a gold jacket. There were a few other defensive linemen drafted ahead of Suggs, but none had nearly the career that he had. The Ravens, always known as an astute drafting team, took the "gamble" on Suggs and picked him at 10.
Yeah, too much is made by fans and media over 40 times...and even fools some teams (like Al Davis notoriously would bite for 40 times over tape). Larry Fitzgerald was considered a cant miss WR and one of the highest graded WR's to come out the last 30 years and his 40 time was 4.64. He went on to live up to the hype and had a HOF career.
Cooper Kupp is a 4.64 guy as well. Keenan Allen fell because he ran a 4.71. Speed is great, but its not the end all be all its made out to be. Meanwhile guys like John Ross get over drafted because they ran fast in shorts in a straight line with no one defending them.
Polk at 4.54 is plenty fast enough to excel as a WR in the NFL, and he plays fast on the field and has good stop and go and quick cut speed to go along with his precise route running. But most importantly, his body control and ball skills is 2nd to only Odunze, and its a close 2nd. So his ability to adjust to the ball, to make contested catches, and catch in traffic just adds to his value.
Funny you mention Ravens, because in my mock draft thread on the board right now I have Ravens taking Polk at 30. He gives them that big catch radius guy but also is probably the best blocking WR in the draft which really has value on a team like the Ravens. His tape on blocking alone was very impressive on top of what he can do as a WR. I also keep hearing Chiefs are very high on him and he could go to them at 32 as well if he doesn't go to Ravens.
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42 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:
Fair points, always appreciate you opinion man.
I'm higher on Worthy than most. I see ALOT of Zay Flowers in his game, who I liked more than Jordan LY. Also see some Jordan/bit of Tyreek. But again mostly Zay, and think he'll have just as much impact/success in our offense as Zay did for the Ravens.
Other than top 3 (and I'd take BTJ obviously over Worthy), Xavier has the best "suddenness" in his routes. He's just not a deep threat, but can break off the routes inside/outside/curls (stem tree) the best. He's not breaking a ton of tackles, but if he gets a block and makes the 1st man miss, he's an instant homerun threat on bubble screens/short routes too.
I'm thinking there's a 35% chance he makes it to us (simple math: 70% chance Miami passes on him for OT and 50% Dallas passes on him for OL help). Franklin is my #2 option. Then a very slight drop off to Ladd, Polk, Mitchell in that order. After that, I have a bunch of WRs lumped together: Wilson, Legette, Coleman, Tez
IMHO I think the new KO rule moved Worthy up the Bills board personally. This new KO rule is bringing kick returns back and its going to come with the highest percentage of KO returns for TD's in the history of the league IMHO. So having a Worthy back there with his speed where even the slightest crease and its to the house is going to add to his value. Not saying we are investing an early pick just on a KR guy, but the bonus value of what he can bring there I think increases his value to a team.
Worthy excelled in Punt returns in college, but didn't spend much time a kick returner. However the new rules will make the transition easy, and he was a weapon in Punt returns.
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38 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:
I know you asked @Alphadawg7, who also had great info about Addison/Bills link LY.
I agree Franklin's comp is Addison/Tank Dell, but more Addison. I think Franklin (and Worthy for that matter, who I like even more) needs to add 5-10 lbs of muscle to his frame, which is definitely doable.
Franklin fits as a strong #2 option, which is what we need. Kincaid/Samuel/Shakir/Franklin would be a very good group. However, if Worthy would be there at 28, I think he's the pick.
I don't think Worthy will be there at 28, and honestly I initially did not think we would have interest in him with how incredibe thin his frame is. Especially with how we like to see our WR's block but also with how bad our weather gets late in the season and playoffs, I thought they would prefer someone who is more physical where there is a premium on that when weather evens the playing field some with speed.
But, given the strong interest in Franklin and the fact they have met with Worthy I believe twice, its not as unlikely as I thought because Troy has a light frame too, albeit not as light as Worthy. So I think my initial thought earlier in the offseason regarding Worthy and Bills interest were premature and off given the amount of times they have met with these two guys they don't seem to be too worried about frame.
I still think Worthy is more of a WR2 in the NFL, I am just not convinced with his slender frame he can consistently get off the line clean or have his body handle the physicality of a 17 game and playoff long season. But that being said, that elite speed and Allen is a very exciting combo, so it would still be exciting addition.
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36 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:
A question for you: who is most similar to Jordan Addison, who the Bills LOVED and who also proved this past season that he was worth the love? Whoever is closest to that and is within reason (i.e., not Nabers) is who I'd be betting on. It seems Franklin might be that guy.
Nabers yes, an elite version of Addison. But outside of him, the guys that I would list are Troy Franklin and Jalen McMillan of the Huskies, who is also someone they have had in for a visit. Of the 2 though, Troy has more WR1 potential where I think McMillan is going to be that more Addison role opposite a WR1 who has the potential to be a very good player for someone.
In fact, I think all 3 Husky WR's in Odunze, Polk, and McMillan are very good prospects...Odunze elite top 15, Polk late first to 2nd, and McMillan back half of 2nd to 3rd is probably the ranges we see them come off the board.
Another one I would keep an eye on is McConkey. He isn't getting much Bills buzz because for some reason its not even showing we have visited with him on most sites. However, McConkey himself directed stated he has met like 3 times with the Bills, so I do think there is legit interest in him too. He really fits what I think the Bills want out of a WR as he probably has the highest floor in the draft outside the big 3 and is one of the most consistent and reliable WR's this year.
But if I was laying odds of all the WR's in the draft on the chances they become the first WR we take, I right now would give the best odds to Franklin and then from there I would go next McConkey, Mitchell, Worthy, Coleman, Walker, Legette, Thomas. I wouldn't have any of the big 3 above them, the Bills have literally no reported or accounted for meetings with any of the big 3. Just 1 reported meeting with Thomas. I am not 100% positive, but I don't think the Bills have ever taken a player round 1 they havent met with.
Keep an eye out for Tez Walker, especially if we go someone like McConkey early. They have met with Walker as much as they have met with Franklin. If we don't go WR at 28, my guess is Walker is our pick at 60. Or if we trade back and take a WR and pick up a 3rd, it wouldn't surprise me if we took Walker in the 3rd if he was still there or to see them maybe even move up using some later round picks to get him.
I do not think Walker is in play in earlier than that where they would go someone like Mitchell, Franklin or McConkey for example. But I definitely think he is very much in play if we pass on a WR with our first pick and we miss on some of those guys I just mentioned.
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4 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:
The Chiefs LOVE Polk and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s their first round pick.
Yes, I’ve been hearing the same. In my mock draft thread I have Balt taking him at 30 as they also like him and he fits their style of offense so well, especially being maybe the best blocker at WR in the draft to go along with having all he brings as a WR and being that big catch radius target for Lamar.
I had Chiefs trade up for an OT as well, however if I didn’t mock the chiefs trading up and Polk was on the board at 32, I would have mocked Polk likely to the Chiefs there.
I keep hearing his name is coming up behind the scenes amongst NFL personnel a lot and while he isn’t getting the media attention, teams behind the scenes are high on him.
Not only do I think he won’t get out of the 2nd, I think he goes somewhere between end of first and first half of round 2.
I can’t find any reports of Bills meeting with him though, so I don’t think he is currently in our sights though. Bills have however met with Coleman several times though who is slower and personally I would take Polk over Coleman.
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45 minutes ago, habes1280 said:
I like this. I keep hearing that Thomas is a cut above the second tier receivers, but the closer we get to draft day, the less comfortable I am with moving up the order to draft him. A trade-back like this, to the top of the second round, landing us at the top of the second surge of the receiver run, and in your scenario, recouping a pick in the third, would be perfect. I'm not sure that Franklin would be my first choice of the remaining pass catchers, but I wouldn't scoff (especially with two more picks in the top-100).
I went Franklin because I think there is some substance to all the Franklin buzz surrounding the Bills. They have met with him a lot too. I know you can’t take everything too seriously leading up to a draft, but everything about their interest makes sense.
At 28, I think I would have leaned Mitchell rather than trade back to just be sure we got our guy and I have Mitchell graded a little higher than Franklin, although I do like Franklin too. But I tried to do the mock as the GM of each team on what I thought made the most sense to what they might really do, and if they want Franklin then while they could just take him at 28, I think a small trade back is the play for them. Even if they miss on Franklin being there, McConkey, Legette, Mitchell, etc are still on board, so one likely reaches us.
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44 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
First, outstanding work, thank you. Second, I can absolutely see your scenario playing out. Third, I like Polk alot, and wouldn't mind seeing him here.
Thanks bud, and yeah I do like Polk myself too, think he has a high floor and will contribute early as a rookie for someone.
And to just set the record straight on why I have Polk sneaking in at the end of the round…while I am personally high on him, I didn’t just plug him in there out of the blue.
First, Ravens have met with him and had him in for a 30 visit. He style makes so much sense for their team and needs too and good chance he isn’t there in the 2nd. Also, I’ve been hearing Polks name a lot as a guy to watch end of the first with not only Ravens, but also KC with the Rice drama now ongoing.
In this mock, both the Chiefs had traded up and Polk was off the board to Balt before KC would have been on the clock at end of round. But if neither of those two things happen, I think Polk is potentially in play for KC at end of round and may come down to what CBs or OL prospects are still on the board.
Of course, if he doesn’t I still think he goes somewhere in the 2nd, but he is one of those guys who can really go anywhere in the 2nd, so sneaking into the end of the first didn’t feel like too much of a stretch. And every year guys go earlier and later than expected, so this felt within reason for him.
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9 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:
28 for 36 and 78 is a realistic value match (I doubt they would get more).
@Alphadawg7 If we don't end up trading up for one of the top 4 WR's, I actually prefer this type of trade back to staying put at 28 for Beane.
Yeah I like it too, although Mitchell being there would be interesting decision. I’d probably lean 60-40 on taking Mitchell just because you have no assurances Franklin makes it to us. While I do have Franklin reaching us, there are definitely spots he could go before our pick. And if I had to choose between Mitchell and Franklin straight up, I would lean a little more Mitchell even though I do like Franklin as well.
But the lure of adding a 3rd, which IMHO has some great value this year in the 3rd at a number of positions we could use help at won me over in this mock.
Im actually kind of chopping at the bit already to do a v2.0 and explore another scenario at the top in which I think is very plausible that might shift how the draft falls and see what that looks like for Buffalo.
Also, maybe I’m bias, but Jags signing Gave Davis doesn’t feel like enough with just Kirk and Zay if they want to see what to do with Lawerence long term. Which is why I have them rebuffing Buffalo for a trade for BTJ. But, if Jags feel differently, it’s a realistic spot for Bills to go get BTJ if he is there.
My biggest issue with mocking is moving up for Thomas is that I’m not seeing a lot of connection to him for us, but at least they did meet with him once that is reportedly known. But there are other guys who will be there at 28 and 2nd round that we have reportedly met with multiple times each.
You can never over read into things ahead of a draft, but they do seem to be doing a lot more due diligence as if they they intend to let the draft come to them more than make a big trade up. For example, of the big 4, we have only reportedly met with Thomas the one time.
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5 hours ago, FireChans said:
Jerry Jones hasn’t made a “cute” first round pick in many years now. Their first round pick last year was their LT in waiting while Smith got old (and was quite a foresight).
Zero chance they take Worthy imo. DB or OL will be their pick, or another WR.
There hasn’t been as tempting bait as Worthy though and I think he is not gonna be able to resist. Not like it’s a bad pick, he’s a great fit there. -
30 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Who the hell is his QB?
Just as I watched Mason Rudolph and James Washington jumped out at me - watching this film "who is that QB?" jumped out at me. Penix, right?
Polk does make it look like he just pressed a big red "easy" button when it came to catching those bombs, though.
Yeah that’s Penix and yeah, Polk has the best ball skills outside his teammate Odunze in the draft.2 hours ago, NewEra said:Polk is MY guy!!! Get a new guy! 😉
Latu is the biggest question mark. He’s the best pass rusher in the class imo. His injury history is scary. A top 10 talent that could slip to the mid 20’s, maybe 30’s (according to some).
Would LOVE to land Latu at 28 and then trade up for Polk (or another WR) in rd 2.
I would love that draft!-
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4 minutes ago, Logic said:
Thanks for the mock, Alpha.
I have been on record here as quite liking Franklin and thinking he may be the fourth or fifth best WR in this draft. I think he's underrated. In today's NFL, with rules and schemes and offensive trends being what they are, I think he has what it takes to win his routes consistently and to be -- at worst -- a high end #2 WR, but with the upside to be a #1.
If this is the route they go, I'd like to see them double dip and pair some later picks with either 60 or 78 to move up and get another receiver if one that they like starts falling. I either want one of the big three WRs, or -- failing that -- I want two WRs within the first three rounds. The Bills needed to draft a receiver early even BEFORE Diggs was traded away, and now I believe they need two.
The rest more or less looks good to me, though I'm sticking with Jayden Daniels to the Commanders, and I'd much rather see Xavier Worthy in Dallas than Miami. A Hill/Waddle/Worthy three-receiver with Achane in the backfield would just be a nightmare to defend.
Good work. Thanks again for sharing.Thanks, and I still have a hard time seeing Miami take Worthy. They need help in the trenches so bad, luxury pick I think does very little for them. They are already the fastest team in the NFL, and they can't even win a playoff game or win the division with a 4 game lead late in the season. That is because you don't have to defend the speed as much as you just have to take Tua off his early reads to disrupt that offense.
So they may take Worthy if he is there like @GunnerBill thinks as well, but I think they would be stupid to ignore the glaring needs elsewhere. I think their offense would be better helped by bolstering the OL more than adding Worthy personally.
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2 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
Nice mock, Alpha.
I'm of the mind that Denver does NOT go QB in RD 1. Feels like they may be a sneaky team for a WR after moving Juedy and Sutton being possibly on the way out. Or if the Jets choose Odunze over Bowers then they may grab Bowers. And I believe that Penix will slip to round 2, yes even past Seattle.
I can totally see KC moving to the mid to late 20s for OT help. Great call.
All in all, good work with solid reasoning.
Yeah, Denver was one that took me a minute to work through, although I can't see them taking WR unless one of the big 3 slip there. It was one of the picks I was the least sure what to do on to be honest, but QB's are such a higher premium I finally just leaned back that way.
I think if they don't go QB that someone other than BTJ will be their BPA at that spot. I actually considered them trading back, the only issue I was having was I couldn't find a team where I was like they would definitely move up to this spot for this guy based who was on the board. The middle of round 1 is pretty rich with talent, not a lot of incentive to make moves IMHO for teams in that vicinity and still very expensive for guys at back end of the round to come up to.
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By the way...let me say I was not a fan of how this mock fell as I began working on it where the Jets were staring at a free choice of either Odunze or Bowers at pick 10. Maybe they go OL instead, but those are two of my favorite players in the draft and hate the idea of either of them going to the Jets.
I began working on this mock thread with no idea how it was gonna play out by the time I got to the end. I took each team one by one and looked at needs, the board, strength of each position in the draft, their future picks, etc. So when I got to 10 it just worked out that both Odunze and Bowers were both there.
F the Jets lol
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6 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:
Nice work @Alphadawg7!
I'm biased, bc I'm a big fan of Worthy and the impact he could being to this offense/Brady's scheme. Beane has moved in front of Dallas before and perhaps he will again.
JMO, I'm not a fan of trading back in this draft. Rather move up "modestly" in Rd1 and/or make a big jump in Rd2 (ie trade next yrs Diggs pick to say Car for their 2nd selection in Rd2, acquire their top fourth pick as well). If the right DL is still there.
I agree on S being a nice add in 3rd round, if we move back. But I could see in my trade scenario, of finding a good prospect at top of 4th.
Fun time of year, lots of options with the extra pick next yr now
Yeah, I wanted to pull the trigger and have us go get BTJ, but one...I just haven't seen much actually tying us to him, and I am starting to think its more fan want than team plan. Plus, Jags can't afford to not take him IMHO, they need to find out what Lawerence is worth and Kirk and Zay aren't going to cut it.
I think I would have taken Mitchell at 28 personally, but I am really of the mindset right now that Bills are targeting Franklin. And if they are, I do think they can safely move back with someone like Washington if the right player is there to garner the interest from Washington. And the way this mock played out, it seemed like a very realistic move there to go get protection for their new QB and a safe spot for Bills to move back and still get one of Mitchell, Franklin, Legette, and McConkey. I sketched out the 2nd round to the bills pick and Franklin gets there for me.
Im not opposed to trading up either, I just think none of the WR's are going to get close enough to where Beane will pay to go or that the team won't choose to just take the WR themselves.
30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:I don't think Polk will go round 1. I do think Worthy will somewhere. I still have spidey senses about Miami.
I also still think Daniels will be #2.
To be clear, Worthy in the first wasn't what I was labeling a "surprise", it was Dallas passing up much needed help on the OL with guys who were still on the board to take Worthy instead.
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9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't think Polk will go round 1. I do think Worthy will somewhere. I still have spidey senses about Miami.
I also still think Daniels will be #2.
I will be honest, I didn't either, I have been of the mindset he could go anywhere in round 2 though, so it didn't feel too early with the Ravens. But when I looked at the board for WR's with Ravens on the clock, I honestly didn't see one that I felt fits what the Ravens both do and need as well as Polk. Beyond what he brings to the table as a Receiver for them that fills a need they are lacking, he also is maybe the best blocking WR in the draft which is an ideal fit with how they want to run the ball.Miami for me will have too many choices where they are desperate for help in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They lost a lot on defense, and with this division and conference, I don't think they can afford a luxury pick like Worthy there.
11 minutes ago, The BLUES Brothers said:WOW! So detailed it was like I was reading the recap on NFL Network!
I respect your opinion and draft acumen for spotting talent - aware it may not happen like this - but could see it, hoping not NE's 3rd pick though lol
Thanks, and of course take it with a grain of salt, like any mock. Just more something I find interesting and fun to do, but you can never put too much stock in these things.
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Here is my official version 1.0 on a first round Mock. I am going to try and find the time to make a 2 rounder at some point as well. Since I am not there yet, I did add what I believe the Bills first pick in the 2nd round will be in the notes below since in this mock I have the Bills trading back a little bit.
- Chicago - Caleb Williams, QB, USC: No brainer here, everything points to this being their guy.
- Washington - Drake Maye, QB, UNC: I have believed him to be the pick over Jayden Daniels, and I have someone I trust who has insight who tells me that which QB is still unsettled and that there are supporters for both Maye and Daniels and he thinks its going to fall Maye when its all said and done.
- New England - Marvin Harrison, Jr: With Washington taking Maye, I think NE opts to take what many see as the best player in this draft.
- *TRADE* - Minnesota (via Arizona): Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU: Minnesota sends their 2 first round picks to AZ to move up and get their QB.
- Chargers - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU: Having lost their top 2 WR's, they add an elite weapon for Herbert, especially with last years first round WR not looking the part yet.
- NY Giants - JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan: Having a QB sitting here that can at least push or challenge Jones is too tempting to pass up for the Giants, although it was hard to pass on Odunze.
- Titans - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame: Having the best OT in this draft fall in their lap here is a gift they sprint to the podium to select.
- Atlanta - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida St: While I think Atlanta is going to get some calls for this pick, and trading down is tempting, but the chance to add the best pass rusher in the draft is too tempting and we go ahead and stick with the pick.
- Chicago - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama: While I know Odunze is a popular pick here, he is also more of a luxury pick for a team with a long term WR1 already in DJ Moore and they can find a great compliment to him to replace Keenan Allen in the next year or 2 later in this draft with how deep WR is. Chicago instead looks to bolster their pass rush with adding Turner at 9. With 4 QB's off the board already, the trade up interest here was lighter than expected and they decide to make their pick.
- NY Jets - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia: While someone like Odunze is tempting here, Jets already have a WR1 and look to add what is maybe the biggest mismatch creator of any player in this draft and without question the best TE prospect to come out in over a decade.
- Arizona (VIA TRADE from Vikings) - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington: Cardinals are ecstatic to have moved back and landed extra picks and still get one of the best WR's in this draft who would quite frankly be the top WR in most drafts. They still get their new weapon for Murray and extra draft ammo to boot.
- Broncos - Michael Penix Jr, QB, Washington: With a glaring hole at QB and the largest dead cap hit in history, Broncos look to reset here and bring in Penix.
- Raiders - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo: Draft falls great for Raiders where they have their pick of a top OT or the first CB off the board. With depth at OL in this draft, they opt to take top rated CB in the draft.
- Saints - Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn St: With big needs at OT, Saints also have the draft fall well and are able to take the 2nd best OT prospect in the draft.
- Colts - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama: Colts need a lot of secondary help both at Safety and CB. With no safeties worthy of this early of a selection, Arnold comes off the board to help bolster their secondary.
- Seattle - Byron Murphy, DL, Texas: I had originally thought maybe this could be a home for Penix, but I think Denver jumps first. Seattle needs major help on the DL and they make the move here to bolster that unit with someone who can get off the ball and shoot gaps.
- Jaguars - Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU: My heart wants to write *TRADE* here and input Buffalo Bills name, just like I wanted to above for Odunze when he got past Chicago (but can't see Jets trading him to us, nor can I see AZ passing on him at 11 the way the draft fell). But, they need in the worst way to find out of Football Jesus is really the guy they thought he was when they drafted him. They need a WR1 bad, and BTJ is too good to pass up here and they rebuff trade offers and get Lawerence a Ridley replacement.
- Bengals - Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington: They have to find a way to keep Burrow on his feet and healthy and are fortunate this a great OT draft early and land one of the best ones in the draft here at 18.
- LA Rams - Cooper DeJean, CB, Rams: I know a lot of people assume they look at DT here, and Newton was tempting, but the Rams biggest 2 needs on defense are IMHO at CB and Edge. I had home town Latu penciled in here, but with concern about his medicals potentially affecting his stock, I think they opt for the swiss army knife himself with Cooper, and they know a thing or two about "Coopers" in LA.
- Pittsburgh - Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon: Steelers need a Center and here is there chance to add the best IOL prospect in the draft who can potentially come in and shore up that C position for years to come.
- Miami - Jer'Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois: With big needs at IOL and DL, they have a lot of options here. But when one of the best DL drop here he is too good to pass up given the guys on their roster now are nothing more than role players.
- Eagles - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson: Eagles need help in a big way at CB, and I think one way or another, Eagles will be going CB here in the draft.
- Arizona (VIA TRADE from Vikings): Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA: Having now 3 first round picks, AZ has the ammo to take the gamble on the concerns on medicals and take one of the best pass rushers in the draft.
- Dallas - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas: The smart move here would be to go OL, and its what I would do if I was the GM. However, Jerry Jones can't help himself here and falls in love with elite speed in that dome opposite Lamb and makes the surprise pick of the first round thus far.
- Packers - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama: With the trade of Douglas to the Bills, GB looks to the draft to find its next CB opposite Jaire.
- Tampa - Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn St: Bucs considered IOL here, but the value of IOL vs DL later is greater and make the move to bolster their pass rush now.
- *TRADE* Chiefs (Via Arizona): Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia: Chiefs can't risk waiting on this guy to get any closer to them and make the move to go get him.
- *TRADE* Commanders (Via Buffalo): JC Latham, OL, Alabama: Buffalo was tempted to take a WR here, however, Beane gets an offer to move back and pick up a 3rd rounder we are lacking so Commanders can come get some help to protect their new QB Maye. (BUFFALO sends pick 28 for picks 36 and 78)
- Detroit - AD Mitchell, WR, Texas: Lions benefiting from the Bills trade back land yet another weapon in what could be the most explosive offense in the NFC next year and for years to come.
- Ravens - Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, Washington: A guy not being talked about enough goes here to the Ravens who look to add a playmaking WR who has the best ball skills outside of his college teammate Odunze in the draft giving Lamar their guy with a big catch radius who also plays physical and may be the best run blocking WR in the draft as well.
- 49ers - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon St: Trent Williams is about to be 36 and their RT was a mixed bag last year, so they look to the future here knowing they need 2 new OT's sooner rather than later.
- Arizona (Via Cheifs) - Graham Barton, IOL, Duke: Another trade down plays right into the hands of AZ where they land IOL help that can come in and compete to start and is versatile to play guard or tackle.
NOTES: I have Buffalo trading back even with Adonai Mitchell on the board, not because I want them to (I think I would prefer to take Mitchell there), but because I think there is some real smoke to the Bills being very high on Troy Franklin. This trade back here I have Buffalo landing TROY FRANKLIN, WR, OREGON at pick 36 while adding a 3rd rounder with pick 78. And between picks 60 and now 78 I think the Bills could add potentially a Pass Rusher and a Safety (or vice versa), including being aggressive to move up from one of those spots using some of the extra ammo we have if someone they covet is there.
Surprises: I think the 3 biggest surprises of the this mock are:
- Dallas taking Worthy over the OL help they need. Just feels like such a Jerry Jones thing to do though.
- Buffalo passing on Mitchell to trade back. I think many feel if Mitchell is on the board he would be our pick.
- Ja'Lynn Polk sneaking in first round. I think most have him as a round 2 guy, but he fits so well the Ravens offense. His combo of size, catch radius and blocking really complement the Ravens offense and I do think he is a great fit there.
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Brand Beane Press Conf 4/18
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I think there is no chance Kneeland is the pick for the Bills in the first. In the 2nd, yes. Not in the first.
While I am all for them taking Kneeland later, I do not at all think its remotely possible it would be at 28. But, thats just my opinion, anything is possible. But that would be an absolute shock to probably just about everyone as he is currently a round 2 or 3 guy in just about everyones eyes.