Alphadawg7

You know, if you spent less time trying to challenge me all the time like you are trying to get some gotcha moment that never comes, we could probably have some pretty good football conversations and think you would find we have a lot of the same opinions...lol. But I will play along... What do I expect for Shakir his next 2 years: Fair question. To be clear, I expect him to remain in Buffalo both those years. First year (this upcoming season) Diggs will again lead the team in targets (barring injuries). Beyond Diggs, we have a talented roster that saw 3 first/second year players break out last year in Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook (both as receiver and runner). All 3 have earned roles in the offense, plus we just added Samuel on a 3 year deal and about to add another rookie likely early in the draft. That means Diggs is going to get his targets and there are a lot of mouths to feed after him this season. So I don't think anyone outside of Diggs will reach 1000 yards this season and if I had to give Shakir a range, I think 700-900 yards is where I gauge based on the fact there are a lot of mouths to feed. Year 2 - This is an interesting scenario because this is when Diggs future actually becomes more of a question. Diggs will be 31 and how he does this season will definitely impact the odds he is here again or would the Bills move on when the hit to do so is more palatable. If Diggs has a stellar 2024 and returns, then you got to think he likely is the top dawg again on the targets pecking order and we see a similar situation where we spread the ball around behind Diggs. So 700-900 yards is probably another logical range in that case for Shakir. However, if Bills move on from Diggs after this next year, then you got a 2nd year WR (the rookie we draft this year) who you are looking at to take over Diggs role, but also won't necessarily command the level of targets a player of Diggs caliber and experience does. In that situation, then I think its possible guys like Shakir and Kincaid will see an uptick in targets and more than 1 player getting 1000 yards becomes possible and would bump Shakirs range to probably 850-1000 yards knowing Kincaid is still going to likely remain a big part of the offense too. To be honest, I fully believe he could be 1000+ yard WR on a lot of other teams this next year where he could see the targets to do so. And that is not a stretch, he put up 611 yards on just 39 targets here last year. Lets compare that to our own Diggs last year. Diggs got 107 targets, so what would Shakirs season look like with 107 targets last year: Diggs - 107 targets, 1183 yards, 8 TD's Shakir - 107 targets, 1676 yards, 5 TD's Now, I am not stupid, I realize he benefits having a Diggs on the other side of the field, so I am not going to proclaim he would put up 1600+ yards as the top WR1 on a team drawing the best defender. I mean its not impossible, but also not realistic. But I do think he can be a very good second WR on a team where he gets the targets and they move him around inside and out. I honestly didn't see anyone saying he could be as good as Stef Diggs, at least not Stef at his best who was a top 5 WR at his best. But Shakir was probably our best WR down the stretch and in the postseason for this team last year. That being said, I think anyone who proclaims a young player will be as good as one of the best is always premature, just like when someone thinks someone can't be one of the best because they were not an early draft pick is premature and foolish. Look, I get its a small sample size, but I was on Shakir long before the sample size. So for me, the sample size is proving what I already believed he can do. And the guy works hard at his craft training with Moulds in the offseason. He has the drive to get there, that plays a big part for me too. I told everyone all training camp not to sleep on Shakir and most mocked and doubted that until Knox injury opened up more opportunities for him to prove what he can do and people finally started to see what I had already seen. Honestly, I have been open about my confidence in Shakir many times on this board, including threads I have started on him. I don't have a time machine, can't tell you for sure how his career plays out, but I do know I believe he has a bright future and I think will be a good player for us for at least the next 2 years. I think we have an exciting young core of weapons for Allens prime between whatever rookie we take early this year, Shakir, Kincaid and Cook.

Yeah, that is why I think a move up in the first would be a smaller type move up than a significant move. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Beane make a small move back if a guy isn't there at 28 he covets and try and recoup a 3rd and take a WR on the move back because once you get past the top 4 guys, the next 7 WR's kind of get muddled all together and who ranks where is in the eye of the beholder. So they could move back and still get a guy they really want potentially.

Do I think Shakir is capable of a 1000+ yard season if he got the targets…yes I do. I was on him going into the draft and even said prior to the draft to keep an eye on Shakir to the Bills. And nothing he’s done since arriving has deterred my confidence in him as a WR. I however didn’t say he would primarily be a boundary WR or even a WR1 as you just said in your posts. He will be someone that will move inside and out and is an ascending player whose efficiency last year was more than impressive. 13.5 yards per target is crazy good to go along with like an 87% catch rate. So yes, I’m confident in him, he’s earned that. But there’s no reason to over exaggerate my confidence in him the way you are as if I’m making bigger claims for him than I am.

Lol, except I never once said that Shakir is going to move outside and take on 80 more targets than the 45 he got this year which would mean he would get 125 targets this year…never gonna happen for anyone outside of Diggs unless injuries change the target landscape. I have repeatedly said that for as long as Diggs is here, no one is getting 100+ targets because Diggs is gonna get his and then the ball is gonna get spread around between Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, even Cook plus whatever rookie we draft.

I’m hoping we move up in first and get Thomas…or Odunze it he slides close enough because of an early QB run and someone like Cowboys over drafts Worthy ahead of Odunze. I’m also ok moving back from 28 and taking a WR and picking up maybe a 3rd in doing so. I’m also fine going BPA if it’s another position and then maybe trading up in the 2nd to go get our guy. Draft is so deep and rich at WR, so I’m good with a number of scenarios. I don’t feel like it’s gotta be one particular way this year.

LOL...then you can say the 20th ranked WR is as safe as the 3rd ranked WR because they all have pros and cons. I am not saying Legette is the only one with a pros and cons list, every player in NFL history has that. So, no...you can't actually because each prospect is different, as are their pros and cons...so a blanket statement like you just made isn't relevant in comparing the players. The actual strengths and weaknesses of each player need to be individually considered in how you rank/grade said player. The ones around Legette specifically concern me. We are talking about an heir to Diggs...Diggs is a dawg...he is a threat at all 3 phases of the field, including for multiple years was one of the best deep ball and contested catch WR's in the NFL. Legette however has a lot of the same concerns that plagued Gabe Davis with limited route tree, struggles with press coverage, more of a strider making his best trait a deep ball threat. I want a true WR1 out of this draft that will be the heir Diggs as WR1 as early as potentially next year. So sorry, no disrespect, but don't dismiss my concerns around Legette as "you can do that with everyone" because that just has nothing to do with what I am concerned about with him vs other players we could take. I won't be mad if we take Legette, he is an intriguing prospect, but doesn't change the fact his specific concerns are ones that I think make him a bit riskier than others.

Living in LA I like this as it makes it easy to still follow his career as he was a fave of mine. Cutting him was the right choice cap wise coming off 2 major leg injuries in 3 seasons, so get why we moved on and its what had to be done. But still hope he comes back and has a strong finish to his career. Good luck Tre, have fun here in LA!

I would agree with you if we didn't already have an impressive arsenal of weapons for Josh between Diggs, Shakir, Kincaid, Samuel, and even Cook to throw to. Like if Diggs had actually been traded (which he isn't going to be) and we needed badly to replace Josh's top weapon. And lets realistically look at who will be there at 28: McConkey, Coleman, Franklin, Legette, Pearsall...possibly Mitchell and/or Worthy. Those are widely seen as the next best 7 WRs on the board in no particular order after the big 4. That group is all closely graded together...and the order in which they are ranked varies widely based on who you talk to. So for a visual example...just gonna make up a numbers ranking system of 0.0 to 10.0 that Beane puts as a grade. What if a player at another position of need (say a DE) has 9.2 grade at 28 and the next best guy at that same position has a 7.9 grade. Now the best WR left on the board has an 8.7 and of the 7 WR's listed above they are all tightly graded from 8.5 to 8.7 amongst themselves. Wouldn't you agree that it would be absolutely best to take the 9.2 player and then grab say even the 8.5 WR over reaching for say the 8.7 WR and being stuck with the 7.9 guy at the other position for our first 2 rounds? Not only is reaching a bad draft strategy...but you exponentially compound that mistake when you reach in a draft that is rich at that position with guys will similar grades and potential that can be had a round or 2 later. That is my only point. Don't pass up someone you have a much better grade on at another position of need to take a lesser WR, especially in a draft where you can get similar graded WR's a round or 2 later. Again, I do want a WR early...I am not advocating against that, only advocating against reaching

Those are not his only concerns...just to name a few... He is more of a strider, so takes longer to get up to his top speeds and mostly in straight lines He doesn't have great acceleration or burst, concerns it will limit his effectiveness at all 3 phases and make him more of a deep ball specialist Struggles with press coverage Isn't a polished route runner and may be limited to more of a downfield WR than a true WR1 who can attack all 3 phases of the defen Is Leggette an intriguing prospect...Yes. But, of anyone we can take at 28, he has probably the most risk with the lowest floor. With how deep the first 10-11 WRs are in this draft, I think Leggette is most likely going to go in the 2nd, which is where I would prefer to take him.

Ideally, any early WR we take this year is someone you want to see ascend to WR1 when Diggs time is up here (maybe as early as next year) or his play falls off as he finishes his career here and falls back more to a WR2/3 role towards the end of his career. Either way, ideally, we are drafting Diggs replacement. Which means it may take until Diggs is no longer a Bill before any rookie we draft hits 1000+ yard season (barring injuries creating an earlier opporunity) because the rest of our pass catchers are both young and talented, meaning they will have significant roles themselves in Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, and even Cook. Also, comparing Kincaid to Rousseau isn't really fair as they were not in the same draft. So lets look at Rousseau's draft: The next 5 WRs off the board after his pick were: E. Moore, R. Moore, D. Eskridge, T. Atwell, T. Marshall. So lets say the Bills pass on Rousseau and instead reach for one of those 5 players...do you really think the Bills are better off if they pass on Rousseau for one of those pedestrian WR's? I mean 3 of them are scrubs, and 2 of them are decent, but nothing special and certainly not more valuable than a starting DE like Rousseau. And again, I am on the WR early band wagon, just saying I go into every draft with the mindset of not reaching is the best practice unless absolutely necessary. And I do not at all think it is necessary to reach at WR this year based on how good of weapons we already have and how rich and deep this draft is at WR.

You are grossly undervaluing Shakir and Kincaids abilities in this offense. Do you know that Shakir averaged 13.5 yards per target? Not per catch...per TARGET last year. Thats is insane and it came with like an 87% catch rate. He was without question our best WR down the stretch and in the playoffs last year. Kincaid put up a very good rookie year as well. Both these guys are young. There is very little chance that any rookie we will draft at WR that will average both 13.5 yards per target with an over 80% catch rate. Its just not likely gonna happen, that is crazy efficient. Again, I also want a WR...but as unrealistic as you have been about trading Diggs, you are equally underestimating the roles and abilities of Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, and Cook will bring to this offense this year.

No disrespect, but you have a very unrealistic expectation if you assume any first round WR will be an "easy button to 1000 yard season". Not only are the odds against that, but its probably more realistic to say a rookie elsewhere has less competition for snaps than any WR we draft who still has to share the targets with Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Cook, and even Knox. Let me first be clear...I also WANT us to get a WR early this draft, in fact, I am hoping we make a small move up and go get Thomas. This is a great shot at getting an heir to Diggs, and I am all for it. But I also don't want to reach for a WR either for just the sake of taking one. But your 1000 yard easy button comments is just not realistic unless injuries pave the way for it. Not only do we typically bring rookies along slowly unless we have no choice, but Diggs, Shakir, Kincaid, Samuel, Cook, and Knox are all going to get their targets and without injuries creating opportunities, any rookie we draft is most likely to put up 500-700 yards at best this season. Again, I am also wanting to go WR and even trade up for Thomas. However, I don't want to reach for someone either at 28 just for the sake of taking a WR, reaching is never a sound draft strategy.

Beane has always said this. I have been trying to remind a lot of people of this around here who have this expectation its a WR or nothing else at 28 no matter who is on the board, and that is just something they are going to be potentially disappointed in. The only way he takes a WR at 28 is if that player is absolutely BPA on his board. If not, then he is trading up to get one if one he covets gets within range, taking another position and then looking at WR in round 2 (maybe even trading up for one in round 2), or even trading back at 28 and picking up more draft ammo and taking a WR then. He absolutely will not REACH for a WR at 28...anyone thinking otherwise is going to be disappointed.

IMHO...Absolutely not in this draft. You said top 5 WR, I know who 4 of them are...MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas...but who is 5? That is a highly debatable 5th guy...is it Mitchell who has off the chart traits, but for some reason the on field production doesn't match? Is it Worthy who runs fast but is built like a stick figure at 6'1 and 165 pounds who most question can even be a WR1 at the next level or is better suited for a WR2 role. Is it Leggette who some don't even have ranked in the top 10 who has high upside but also probably the lowest floor? See that is the issue...if you are talking about a first round pick, it needs to be for a slam dunk elite prospect, and that really comes down to MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze...maybe Thomas. But Thomas should be able to be had for less than a first round pick type move up too and is possible could still get to us at 28 without a trade up. Honestly, after the top 4 guys, the rest get muddled together from 5-11 and are more about how different people see each one. Really the top 10 WR's in this draft all have legit WR1 potential and would have cases for the first round in several other drafts, and probably 2-4 of them will also be first rounders this draft. That next group is in no particular order: Mitchell, Worthy, McConkey, Leggette, Coleman, Franklin, Pearsall. How anyone ranks that group will vary greatly person to person...and the fact remains that most of those guys will be on the board at 28 not requiring us to spend a first round pick to go get. To give up a first to get one would be worse than doing it get Sammy Watkins as we are not even getting the top WR prospect, we are using a future first to get at best the 5th best WR prospect who may be the 8th best WR prospect on someone elses board. So unless we are getting one of the big 3, its an awful trade. And even if we do get one of the big 3, it still makes no sense when so many very good prospects remain, not to mention all the talent that will come out of this draft on day 2 and 3.

Oh crap...Totally spaced and forgot we begin a partial remodel on Sat ahead of a bunch of new furniture coming Tuesday as we get the house ready for baby 2. So my availability may be spotty this first version of the mock. So even though I am down to do it, I may not be the best choice to assure a good pace on the draft given how trade happy these mocks tend to get. I am not sure how fast I will see them over the weekend and through Tuesday. If you can't find anyone else, I will do my best. But you may want to grab someone else for this who can stay more on top of it this weekend and early next week.

Im down for the trade approval commissioner if you still need it.

How is that a real point when they don't have the same role or targets as individuals as MHJ will initially see as a primary target for his new team? lol NOTE: Shakir averaged an insane 13.5 yards per TARGET. That is crazy good, that is not per catch, that is per target. And he had something like an 87% catch rate too. So what if he got 120 targets and MHJ got 120 targets? May not be as big of a gap as you seem to think if Shakir continues that elite level of efficiency and effectiveness. But he will never see that many targets on a team with Diggs, Samuel, himself, an early drafted rookie, Kincaid, and Cook...way too many weapons on this team behind the top target guy Diggs for Allen to spread the ball around. MHJ may prove to be the best player between himself, Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook 5 years from now...but that does not mean Shakir, Kincaid and Cook are not capable of being very good to great players themselves given what they have already shown in their short careers. And on the flip side, MHJ hasn't proven anything at the next level either. Sammy Watkins was supposed to be the best WR in a loaded WR draft and then proved he wasn't anything more than a middling WR2.

Lol...can't believe this thread reached 10 pages about a player there is 0% chance will even be a Buffalo Bill this draft.

You are way under estimating Shakir. He needs to be a big part of this offense and was the best WR down the stretch and in the postseason last year. Give him 120+ taegets and he puts up 90+ rec for 1300+ yards and double digit TDs. Now he’s never going to get those targets here, too many mouths to feed, but if he went to somewhere where he got those targets he would be a machine.

I’m not interested in a trade back that gets that much in return. To get that kind of compensation would mean a significant trade back where we could miss on the better WR prospects all together. We could make a small trade back and pickup a 3rd (we don’t currently have one) or an extra fourth and still easily get one of Leggette, Coleman, Franklin, McConkey, or Pearsall as more than one of them would still be on the board. So I’m down for that kind of trade back, not a big one.

Dont forger another twenty something in dead cap next year too lol

Yeah, this is pretty much how it was and my experience of that draft

As players get more years on their bodies in the NFL, rest, healing and body maintenance becomes substantially more important. Not to mention the mental drain of carrying the pressure and stress of a franchise on your shoulders like he does. Now add in a guy like Josh who also plays with a lot of reckless abandon out there and lays his body on the line most weeks, and the need is even greater because there is no team without him. Young players have a lot to work on to get to that upper echelon level of the league...Josh put the work in to get there. There are no major or raw components of his game at this stage, now its about tweaks more than it is about development. So no, Josh should not at all be putting the same level of work in he had to his first few seasons. He needs the recovery time and he will still put in the work he needs to in order to be both physically and mentally ready for the season, that I have no doubt. Sorry, this is not accurate. Mahomes took most the offseason off last year. He took several vacations, went to Coachella, many golf trips. It is very funny to me that he posts one video of a work out and fans translate that to mean he was in the gym hard for 5 months of the offseason.

Falling in love with combine scores is what gets GM's fired.

Newb? Ha, well I was an 11 year vet on this board in 2019 and had probably about 15K posts back then. Newb I was not. Remember a mock draft is what you think they will do, not what you want them to do, otherwise thats a wish list, not a mock draft. I knew they were going to address the OL in the draft, heck everyone knew that because we had to and they were showing a lot of interest in OL prospects ahead of the draft. It wasn't a great draft overall...and definitely was not a great draft to be looking for a WR or OL help, but those were two areas many expected the Bills to address at some point in the draft. Don't disagree with that, but reaching isn't the solution to your equation. My only stance is I don't want to reach for a 2nd round player in the first, I would rather trade back and pick up value then get said player. But, if Beane and the scouts have someone they covet there at 28 and don't want to risk trading back, then I am all for them pulling the trigger. Im just saying the anti DK crowd for sure outnumbered the pro DK crowd on draft night. And prior to the combine, there was almost no DK crowd here outside a handful of us. Leading up to the draft there were a lot of people begging for Ed Oliver and many others Hockenson. I would say DK was at best 3rd around here, and even that was not a lock as there were others that preferred other WR's over DK like Harry and Brown. Lol...never worked so hard to make someone realize that we aren't actually disagreeing on anything 😂