Mike Mayock's Mock Draft Picks 1-10

[iinii]

Everette Brown played all over the defensive line in college and wreaked havoc from every spot. Left side, right side, middle, it didn't matter where he was he was disruptive. This guy will make sure opposing QB's recognize where he is lined up every play. Hopefully he will be the Bills pick at #11.

Brown played in the soft A.C.C. and true others have come from lesser environs to dominate so if he is our pick I hope you are right. WE need a play making defensive end, a man among men tackle, and a big big hitting linebacker. i have said all along i don't want much. Give me all that and Mays out of U.S.C. next year and I will be satisified for a while at least.

[Leonidas]

For you people that keep suggesting we draft Crabtree - are you nuts??? Do you not see the holes on this team?? OL, DL, LB. WR is NOT a position of need on any level. No WR's!!!!

 

For those of you suggesting we draft Jenkins - I'm sure he can ball but we cannot afford to waste a top pick on a DB. It's just not a position of need. We could use another safety, sure, but not like we need to address both lines.

 

And I'm not sure that it's fair to judge Orakpo poorly because a) he's huge and b) he's from Texas. As long as the "workout warrior" produces (unlike DE Michael Johnson) then I'll welcome him with open arms. And last time I checked, WR Roy Williams was a pretty good player out of Texas. Just because Vince Young was/is a moron crybaby and Rickey Williams liked to smoke the gange a little too much while taking underwater pottery classes at the local CC doesn't mean Orapko will fail at the next level.

 

And isn't Everette Brown 6'4"? That's where I keep seeing him listed. But even at 6'1" as Magox pointed out, you can be a very, very good DE. Of course Brown doesn't have Freeney's combination of speed and girth (Freeney is 268 lbs. at just 6'1"; Brown is just 248 lbs. at his listed 6'4").

[Beerball]

I could be wrong, but are Brown and Orakpo more the pass-rushing RDE type? Or do you see one of them taking over Ellison's spot. Robert Ayers seems more like the LDE this team needs to replace Denney and Kelday. The way Ayers is rising he's reminding me more and more of Whitner.

FWIW and forgive me if this has been mentioned previously...Mayock has Ayers listed as the 5th best player available in the draft. Good size, 6'3", 272lbs.

 

Prior to this season he had only started 2 games and had been suspended once. This past season he came on registering 15.5 tackles for loss, but he doesn't have the speed to be a rush end and his bench press results were underwhelming.

 

What is causing him to shoot up draft boards (and why does Mayock list him as the 5th best player in the draft)?

[2003Contenders]

FWIW and forgive me if this has been mentioned previously...Mayock has Ayers listed as the 5th best player available in the draft. Good size, 6'3", 272lbs.

 

Prior to this season he had only started 2 games and had been suspended once. This past season he came on registering 15.5 tackles for loss, but he doesn't have the speed to be a rush end and his bench press results were underwhelming.

 

What is causing him to shoot up draft boards (and why does Mayock list him as the 5th best player in the draft)?

 

1. Size. He's one of the few guys in the draft this year that is a genuine 4-3 DE and NOT projected to be a 3-4 OLB in the NFL.

 

2. He gave Alabama's LT Smith fits. This happened BEFORE Smith hurt his draft value.

 

3. Scouts see a great deal of upside and believe what he did in college was only a tip of the iceberg.

 

To summarize: potential.

[Leonidas]

He has nine sacks in four years, only three last season. Pass.

[The Senator]

Was Cyndi Lauper 'pre-madonna'?

[The Dean]

Was Cyndi Lauper 'pre-madonna'?

 

 

I would call them "contemporaries".

[Orton's Arm]

Any time you have an opportunity to add a special player to your team--the kind of guy who changes the complexion of a game--you have to take it. I think that, of the players Mayock believes will be available to us, the player most likely to be that game-changer is Crabtree.

 

I know that may seem counter-intuitive, because we have T.O. this year, and either Hardy or Johnson may step up as our #2 next year.

 

But let's say that, five years from now, Crabtree turns into the next Larry Johnson, and Orakpo and Brown turn out to be solid but unspectacular DEs. The Evans/Crabtree combination would force defenses to choose their poison, and make the Bills' passing attack very difficult to stop. He'd also go a long way toward solving our problems in the red zone. Under this scenario, would you say to yourself, in hindsight, "Gosh, I really wish they'd taken one of the DEs instead"? Or, if you're the Bills, do you grab the special player at #11, and wait until later in the draft to take a solid but unspectacular DE?

 

I'm not saying I'm 100% sure Crabtree will be a special player, or that I'm fully confident that the DEs won't be special players. What I am saying is that, with this pick, you have to put a higher priority on finding a game-changing player than on simply filling one of our myriad holes. This teem needs more game-changers if it's going to do anything worthwhile.

[Leonidas]

Any time you have an opportunity to add a special player to your team--the kind of guy who changes the complexion of a game--you have to take it. I think that, of the players Mayock believes will be available to us, the player most likely to be that game-changer is Crabtree.

 

I know that may seem counter-intuitive, because we have T.O. this year, and either Hardy or Johnson may step up as our #2 next year.

 

But let's say that, five years from now, Crabtree turns into the next Larry Johnson, and Orakpo and Brown turn out to be solid but unspectacular DEs. If the Bills ended up with Crabtree under this scenario, would you say to yourself, in hindsight, "Gosh, I really wish they'd taken one of the DEs instead"? Or, if you're the Bills, do you grab the special player at #11, and wait until later in the draft to take the solid but unspectacular DE?

 

I'm not saying I'm 100% sure Crabtree will be a special player, or that I'm fully confident that the DEs won't be special players. What I am saying is that, with this pick, you have to put a higher priority on finding a game-changing player than on simply filling one of our myriad holes. There are far too few game-changers on this team; so we shouldn't squander an opportunity to help rectify that!

 

That's not what it's about. It's about building a better football team. If Crabtree turns into Larry Fitzgerald and Orapko/Brown turn into Schobel but help you win football games (and hopefully playoff games) then that's what matters. It doesn't matter how many superstar WR's you have, if you can't protect your QB and have no pass rush you will lose games. That's why New England - who passed on Moss in the '99 draft - is a perennial winner and Oakland - who I think drafts solely on 40 times - is a perennial loser.

[Adam]

That's not what it's about. It's about building a better football team. If Crabtree turns into Larry Fitzgerald and Orapko/Brown turn into Schobel but help you win football games (and hopefully playoff games) then that's what matters. It doesn't matter how many superstar WR's you have, if you can't protect your QB and have no pass rush you will lose games. That's why New England - who passed on Moss in the '99 draft - is a perennial winner and Oakland - who I think drafts solely on 40 times - is a perennial loser.

I wouldn't mind if we went DT with our first two picks- the position is fairly deep and the fact is that we have to fix the whole DL. If Raji and Jerry both miraculously fell to us with our first two picks, they could be put on a line with Schobel and Stroud and we would have very good depth at DT. Hoode is very good as well

[Orton's Arm]

That's not what it's about. It's about building a better football team. If Crabtree turns into Larry Fitzgerald and Orapko/Brown turn into Schobel but help you win football games (and hopefully playoff games) then that's what matters. It doesn't matter how many superstar WR's you have, if you can't protect your QB and have no pass rush you will lose games. That's why New England - who passed on Moss in the '99 draft - is a perennial winner and Oakland - who I think drafts solely on 40 times - is a perennial loser.

I agree with the bolded statement, as well as with some of the other things you've written. But I disagree with the implication that you're better off drafting an Aaron Schobel than a Larry Fitzgerald.

 

If you can't keep your quarterback upright, it doesn't matter whether you have Joe Montana or Trent Dilfer back there; or whether your receivers are named Jerry Rice or Russell Copeland. Either way, your offensive attack will be defeated due to the lack of a line. But if the line does its job reasonably well, the quality of your quarterback and receivers matters a lot.

 

If the Bills drafted Crabtree in the first, they should probably take an OG in the second or third. Taking a TE relatively early in the draft wouldn't hurt either.

 

You may be tempted to point out that the Bills don't have a good pass rush; and without that, this defense isn't going to be particularly successful. But let's be realistic here: there are too many holes on this team to fill them all in right away. If the chance to draft a game-changing DL, such as Raji, came along, obviously the Bills would have to consider it very seriously. But it's not likely Raji makes it to #11. Which means that there probably won't be a chance to add a game-changing DL when the Bills pick.

 

Given a choice between a game-changer and a lesser player at a position of need, which do you pick? The Bills faced that choice in 2006, when they could have used the 8th overall pick on Whitner (a position of need) or Cutler (at a position which the Bills felt might not be one of need). With their second pick in the first round, the Bills faced a choice between McCargo (position of need) and Mangold (a better player at a position of lesser perceived need). Had they taken Cutler and Mangold--as I'd wanted them to at the time--they would be in a much better position today.

 

Now the Bills are once again faced with--potentially--choosing between a moderately good player at a position of need, or (possibly) a much better player at a position of lesser perceived need. To me, that decision is fairly obvious. This is not to say the Bills should de-emphasize their lines in general. On the contrary. They should use every reasonable opportunity to improve both lines--especially in the early rounds of the draft. I define a "reasonable opportunity" as a case where the best available lineman is comparable to or better than the best available non-lineman. If the Bills adopt that philosophy toward their lines, then, over the course of two or three drafts, the offensive and defensive lines should be in much better shape than they are today. Add in a few potential superstar non-linemen--such as Crabtree--and this team could become dangerous.

[Leonidas]

I agree with the bolded statement, as well as with some of the other things you've written. But I disagree with the implication that you're better off drafting an Aaron Schobel than a Larry Fitzgerald.

 

If you can't keep your quarterback upright, it doesn't matter whether you have Joe Montana or Trent Dilfer back there; or whether your receivers are named Jerry Rice or Russell Copeland. Either way, your offensive attack will be defeated due to the lack of a line. But if the line does its job reasonably well, the quality of your quarterback and receivers matters a lot.

 

If the Bills drafted Crabtree in the first, they should probably take an OG in the second or third. Taking a TE relatively early in the draft wouldn't hurt either.

 

You may be tempted to point out that the Bills don't have a good pass rush; and without that, this defense isn't going to be particularly successful. But let's be realistic here: there are too many holes on this team to fill them all in right away. If the chance to draft a game-changing DL, such as Raji, came along, obviously the Bills would have to consider it very seriously. But it's not likely Raji makes it to #11. Which means that there probably won't be a chance to add a game-changing DL when the Bills pick.

 

Given a choice between a game-changer and a lesser player at a position of need, which do you pick? The Bills faced that choice in 2006, when they could have used the 8th overall pick on Whitner (a position of need) or Cutler (at a position which the Bills felt might not be one of need). With their second pick in the first round, the Bills faced a choice between McCargo (position of need) and Mangold (a better player at a position of lesser perceived need). Had they taken Cutler and Mangold--as I'd wanted them to at the time--they would be in a much better position today.

 

Now the Bills are once again faced with--potentially--choosing between a moderately good player at a position of need, or (possibly) a much better player at a position of lesser perceived need. To me, that decision is fairly obvious. This is not to say the Bills should de-emphasize their lines in general. On the contrary. They should use every reasonable opportunity to improve both lines--especially in the early rounds of the draft. I define a "reasonable opportunity" as a case where the best available lineman is comparable to or better than the best available non-lineman. If the Bills adopt that philosophy toward their lines, then, over the course of two or three drafts, the offensive and defensive lines should be in much better shape than they are today. Add in a few potential superstar non-linemen--such as Crabtree--and this team could become dangerous.

 

Fair enough. But what if he doesn't turn into Larry Fitzgerald. What about the very real possibility he turns into Marcus Robinson? Or, at worst, Mike Williams (WR, obvi)? Or Charles Rogers? Remember, both Rogers and Mike Williams dominated at WR in college. It's not like Crabtree is a lock by any means. Knowing that, you absolutely have to address the positions of need. If you don't like a particular player and a particular spot (i.e. if the FO isn't high on Brown they can certainly pass on him at #11) then you don't have to take him, but don't go off the charts and pick a WR when that is legitimately the position you are deepest at.

[Magox]

Fair enough. But what if he doesn't turn into Larry Fitzgerald. What about the very real possibility he turns into Marcus Robinson? Or, at worst, Mike Williams (WR, obvi)? Or Charles Rogers? Remember, both Rogers and Mike Williams dominated at WR in college. It's not like Crabtree is a lock by any means. Knowing that, you absolutely have to address the positions of need. If you don't like a particular player and a particular spot (i.e. if the FO isn't high on Brown they can certainly pass on him at #11) then you don't have to take him, but don't go off the charts and pick a WR when that is legitimately the position you are deepest at.

I think Crabtree is supposed value is higher than what it actually is in my view. Remember, he played in a pass happy system where Mike Leach was their coach and he may be the most dynamic offensive minded coach in all of college football. I think you have to take that with a grain of salt. Not to mention he doesn't have elite speed, not that that is everything, but it is a component in measuring a WR. I'm not sold on him at all for a pick that high.

[DazedandConfused]

If it really shakes out like that it would limit the Bills' trade-down scenarios (I think) unless a team had a real desire to nab Crabtree.

 

Personally, I would like to see the Bills grab Pettigrew here even though it's a touch early.

I think that actually if plays out this way it greatly enhances the Bills chances to trade down since likely several teams who judge themselves in need of a QB of the future who pick after the Bills such as the Broncos having seen both Stafford and Sanchez go in this scenario would be hot to trot to get Freeman. Even though the Broncos would only move up one slot with a trade, they would have to be deathly afraid that someone else would make us an offer and after a trade with us they pluck Freeman and leave the Broncos with their current limited QB duo and a second rounder at best.

 

I think the trade options with this scenario are far more attractive than drafting any particular player left in this draft. Outside of Crabtree whom it would surprise me if he was still there at #11 the players left in this draft are not so head and shoulders above their peers that we would make out like bandits getting an extra pick or so to move down and pick a second option for us between 12 and 20.

[Max997]

We all know how scary accurate Mayock is with draft predictions.

 

he is? why because he got the Whitner pick right? how many did he have right last year?...people give this guy way too much credit

 

Everette Brown is the pick

[Orton's Arm]

Fair enough. But what if he doesn't turn into Larry Fitzgerald. What about the very real possibility he turns into Marcus Robinson? Or, at worst, Mike Williams (WR, obvi)? Or Charles Rogers? Remember, both Rogers and Mike Williams dominated at WR in college. It's not like Crabtree is a lock by any means. Knowing that, you absolutely have to address the positions of need. If you don't like a particular player and a particular spot (i.e. if the FO isn't high on Brown they can certainly pass on him at #11) then you don't have to take him, but don't go off the charts and pick a WR when that is legitimately the position you are deepest at.

The bolded statement is a solid point. And the Bills would have to be reasonably sure this wouldn't happen before pulling the trigger. Not that you can be 100% sure of any player's future when you draft him. But I'd want to know that Crabtree was a less risky player than most--especially in terms of work ethic, passion for the game, and ability to stay out of trouble off the field. If the Bills don't feel confident about him in those areas, they should move in a different direction.

 

One possibility for that different direction is to trade down and take Mack. The guy we just signed can play at either center or guard; and I'm pretty sure Mack could be moved to guard if need be.

[Mark Vader]

he is? why because he got the Whitner pick right? how many did he have right last year?...people give this guy way too much credit

 

Everette Brown is the pick

No, it is not because he got the Whitner pick right. His first round predictions have been highly accurate. I'm not 100% sure, but I think he was incorrect on only 3 1st round picks last year.

Mayock's predictions are some of the best I have ever seen, which is why I take him very seriously than other draft gurus.

[Leonidas]

The bolded statement is a solid point. And the Bills would have to be reasonably sure this wouldn't happen before pulling the trigger. Not that you can be 100% sure of any player's future when you draft him. But I'd want to know that Crabtree was a less risky player than most--especially in terms of work ethic, passion for the game, and ability to stay out of trouble off the field. If the Bills don't feel confident about him in those areas, they should move in a different direction.

 

This isn't even a discussion, though. Magox's concerns are legitimate and more than enough to rule a guy out who's position you don't need at all. We've got what, seven WR's on the roster now? Even when T.O. inevitably leaves after the season we still have a plethora of potentially very good WR's. The Bills aren't pulling the trigger on Crabtree. Their offensive line is falling apart, their defensive line couldn't get around my grandmother and her new hip. WR is the position we are deepest at, even beyond CB.