History is the best indicator

[BillsVet]

I'm reading how some fans think the Bills will spend big in UFA because the fan base is depressed, RW is going into HOF, and because the Bills have the chance to sign some big players along with showing upwards of 30M to spend in UFA. IMO, those items have little bearing on the team's plan in UFA. I think history shows that Buffalo is modest when they need to be, but also recognize that spending big does not equate to winning during the season.

 

The Bills last three off-seasons are a mix and match of how they "improved" their roster.

 

2006: Bills signed 2 RFA's to offer sheets: G Reggie Wells of Arizona and DL Israel Idonije from Chicago. Both players were retained by their former clubs. The team hosted DT Ryan Pickett from STL, who ended up signing with GB for 4 yrs and 14M. Buffalo then signed DT Larry Tripplett to a modest 5 yr 18.5M deal. Following this, Buffalo inked TE Robert Royal, C Melvin Fowler, WR Peerless Price, CB Kiwaukee Thomas, RB Anthony Thomas, S Matt Bowen, QB Craig Nall, G Tutan Reyes, and WR/KR Andre Davis. Three seasons later, only Fowler and Royal remain, with both being poor options at their positions.

 

2007: Buffalo signed G Dockery, RT Walker, OL Jason Whittle, and CB Jason Webster to contracts. Neither Dockery nor Walker are the strong OL presence the Bills thought they acquired, but represented 74M in contracts. Whittle most likely is finished, and Webster lasted all of a game before predictably getting injured.

 

2008: LB Kawika Mitchell was acquired for 5 yrs and 17.5M at the outset of the signing period. Later, the Bills traded for DT Marcus Stroud, while signing DT Spencer Johnson away from Minnesota.

 

In retrospect, the Bills haven't seriously considered tendering RFA's since the poor 2006 FA period. 07 saw a reversal from the quantity that 06 represented, but hasn't brought about quality players in Dockery and Walker. 2008 seemed to be an improvement in shoring up the defensive front 7, although the defense still needs a pass rusher and another LB.

 

I see the Bills going after one marquee name, a moderate player, and perhaps another depth guy. I could see C Jason Brown, a veteran QB to back up Edwards, and a depth LB. Anything beyond that would be irrational given the economy (whether that's as legit reason around WNY) and fact that the Bills look for only certain players to fit their schemes.

 

Buffalo builds their team at their pace. Even though it's deliberately slow, breaking the bank has proven to hurt teams more often than help. Dockery and Walker's contract was Buffalo's first foray into spending in UFA since 02-03, and it has not worked out. No doubt RW remembers signing Bledsoe, Fletcher, and Spikes and still not having a very good team.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Excellent post. Can't disagree other than to say that I choose to delude myself into wishful thinking mode.

 

Like some others, I hope the combo of fan backlash from last season, Ralph's HOF Induction, his admission that the team needs more talent, and the Bills/AFL's 50th Anniversary festivities will combine to make him open his wallet.

 

As I said this is wishful thinking and we'll see if history indeed is the best indicator soon enough.

[BuckyFillUps]

so you mean we wont bring in Peppers or Houshmanzadah or Haynesworth or Suggs or Boldin or Owen Daniels?!

your harsh reality has ruined my day!!!

 

 

YOU HAVE A PROFOUND GRASP OF THE OBVIOUS.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

so you mean we wont bring in Peppers or Houshmanzadah or Haynesworth or Suggs or Boldin or Owen Daniels?!

your harsh reality has ruined my day!!!

 

 

YOU HAVE A PROFOUND GRASP OF THE OBVIOUS.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

 

NOT

[BillsVet]

In no way am I saying they won't do something strange, but there are (EDIT:four) positions I believe they must address: C, TE, SLB, and DE.

 

In UFA, three names are prevalent at the center positions, though two are over 30: Birk and Saturday. Jason Brown is younger, and will command a heavy price. Not sure if the team wants to spend on the OL, especially considering they've got the Peters situation around the corner.

 

DE and TE are thin in FA, minus Peppers and perhaps Suggs, if he isn't retained by BAL. I don't see Buffalo doing anything here as a result.

 

LB has some intriguing options with Dansby among others. Still, Buffalo went LB in UFA last season and will probably look for a veteran backup and take someone in rounds 1 or 2. The cost of a Dansby will be high

 

ATL had a massive rebuild project last season, didn't do a lot in UFA besides Michael Turner, but used the draft wisely and succeeded. The Mike's (Mularkey and Smith) did a fine job with a lot of youth.

 

It doesn't take a lot of moves in UFA to win. It takes smart drafting, which is why I'm an advocate of trading down from the 11th overall pick. ATL and MIA collected plenty of picks in rounds 1-3 and won.

 

I also think the marquee names will get their money, but the second tier guys will struggle on the open market, a la baseball's free agency this year. It could create an interesting scenario, but I'm not sure the Bills will get into a bidding war for those guys either.

[MattM]

In no way am I saying they won't do something strange, but there are (EDIT:four) positions I believe they must address: C, TE, SLB, and DE.

 

In UFA, three names are prevalent at the center positions, though two are over 30: Birk and Saturday. Jason Brown is younger, and will command a heavy price. Not sure if the team wants to spend on the OL, especially considering they've got the Peters situation around the corner.

 

DE and TE are thin in FA, minus Peppers and perhaps Suggs, if he isn't retained by BAL. I don't see Buffalo doing anything here as a result.

 

LB has some intriguing options with Dansby among others. Still, Buffalo went LB in UFA last season and will probably look for a veteran backup and take someone in rounds 1 or 2. The cost of a Dansby will be high

 

ATL had a massive rebuild project last season, didn't do a lot in UFA besides Michael Turner, but used the draft wisely and succeeded. The Mike's (Mularkey and Smith) did a fine job with a lot of youth.

 

It doesn't take a lot of moves in UFA to win. It takes smart drafting, which is why I'm an advocate of trading down from the 11th overall pick. ATL and MIA collected plenty of picks in rounds 1-3 and won.

 

I also think the marquee names will get their money, but the second tier guys will struggle on the open market, a la baseball's free agency this year. It could create an interesting scenario, but I'm not sure the Bills will get into a bidding war for those guys either.

 

I agree with you wholeheartedly on the positions of need. I suspect they may try to take care of two via FA (C and TE) and two via the draft (OLB and DE). I wouldn't mind if they could pick up Brown at C and then someone like Bo Scaife at TE to go with a DE in Rd 1 and OLB in Rd 2. In a perfect world we'd re-sign Crowell cheap as well and then be able to go BPA after Rd 1, but we'll see. I also expect them to pick up a back up QB and some depth in FA (including resigning some of our own, like Chambers and Preston, to go with tenders to Jackson, Ellison and Digi and possibly Wilson). All of this strikes me as pretty doable, even by our low spending standards. If this were to happen and (a) Trent, Poz, Marshawn, Hardy, S. Johnson and some of the other youngsters mature and (b) we draft well (i.e., pick up 2-3 guys who contribute as rookies, especially at DE) we could make some noise next season.

[San-O]

The Bills last three off-seasons are a mix and match of how they "improved" their roster.

 

2006: Bills signed 2 RFA's to offer sheets: G Reggie Wells of Arizona and DL Israel Idonije from Chicago. Both players were retained by their former clubs. The team hosted DT Ryan Pickett from STL, who ended up signing with GB for 4 yrs and 14M. Buffalo then signed DT Larry Tripplett to a modest 5 yr 18.5M deal. Following this, Buffalo inked TE Robert Royal, C Melvin Fowler, WR Peerless Price, CB Kiwaukee Thomas, RB Anthony Thomas, S Matt Bowen, QB Craig Nall, G Tutan Reyes, and WR/KR Andre Davis. Three seasons later, only Fowler and Royal remain, with both being poor options at their positions.

 

 

Wow, unbelievable.

 

Marv and company may have done better just putting all the available free agents pictures up on a wall

and throwing darts to select them.

[BuffaloBill]

In no way am I saying they won't do something strange, but there are (EDIT:four) positions I believe they must address: C, TE, SLB, and DE.

 

In UFA, three names are prevalent at the center positions, though two are over 30: Birk and Saturday. Jason Brown is younger, and will command a heavy price. Not sure if the team wants to spend on the OL, especially considering they've got the Peters situation around the corner.

 

DE and TE are thin in FA, minus Peppers and perhaps Suggs, if he isn't retained by BAL. I don't see Buffalo doing anything here as a result.

 

LB has some intriguing options with Dansby among others. Still, Buffalo went LB in UFA last season and will probably look for a veteran backup and take someone in rounds 1 or 2. The cost of a Dansby will be high

 

ATL had a massive rebuild project last season, didn't do a lot in UFA besides Michael Turner, but used the draft wisely and succeeded. The Mike's (Mularkey and Smith) did a fine job with a lot of youth.

 

It doesn't take a lot of moves in UFA to win. It takes smart drafting, which is why I'm an advocate of trading down from the 11th overall pick. ATL and MIA collected plenty of picks in rounds 1-3 and won.

 

I also think the marquee names will get their money, but the second tier guys will struggle on the open market, a la baseball's free agency this year. It could create an interesting scenario, but I'm not sure the Bills will get into a bidding war for those guys either.

 

Your two posts in this thread are among the most insightful I have read in some time now. Appreciate the thoughts.

 

I tend to agree with your premise. Teams that often go after marquee FA's usually come to regret it. Personally I think the Bills are most likely to shore up LB depth, back up QB and O-line depth via free agency. I see the rest of their needs being addressed through the draft. I think if the Bills do anything unusual in FA it will be with the WR position. I see them really wanting a big body #2 receiver and Hardy's play along with his recovery from injury leaves huge question marks with the position. As a surprise maybe they go after someone like a Reggie Williams who has the size they so need and desire. No way do they go after Whosyourmamma by the way. A safer bet may be Toomer.

 

We'll see.

[apuszczalowski]

Wow, unbelievable.

 

Marv and company may have done better just putting all the available free agents pictures up on a wall

and throwing darts to select them.

At that time, they weren't looking for Pro Bowlers at alot of those positions and were only looking for stop gaps so they atleast had some players to play those positions until they could bring in guys that better fit their plans. Maybe 2-3 of those guys (tripplett, Fowler and Royal) were actually looked at as possible answers to their positions. The others were filler pieces who they hoped might surprise and do well at a cheap cost. The Bills will have to live by the draft and reclaimation projects because they don't have the market to support big spending in FA. It doesn't matter how loaded theowner is, if the money is not coming back to them to support the spending, they won't be spending it.

[spartacus]

Your two posts in this thread are among the most insightful I have read in some time now. Appreciate the thoughts.

 

I tend to agree with your premise. Teams that often go after marquee FA's usually come to regret it. Personally I think the Bills are most likely to shore up LB depth, back up QB and O-line depth via free agency. I see the rest of their needs being addressed through the draft. I think if the Bills do anything unusual in FA it will be with the WR position. I see them really wanting a big body #2 receiver and Hardy's play along with his recovery from injury leaves huge question marks with the position. As a surprise maybe they go after someone like a Reggie Williams who has the size they so need and desire. No way do they go after Whosyourmamma by the way. A safer bet may be Toomer.

 

We'll see.

 

the more accurate conclusion is that teams that spend marquee money ($74 million)on severely overrated players (Dockery & Walker) come to really regret it

[Sisyphean Bills]

<snip>

2008: LB Kawika Mitchell was acquired for 5 yrs and 17.5M at the outset of the signing period. Later, the Bills traded for DT Marcus Stroud, while signing DT Spencer Johnson away from Minnesota.

<snip> 2008 seemed to be an improvement in shoring up the defensive front 7, although the defense still needs a pass rusher and another LB. <snip>

I'm not really sure if I'd call out the trade for Stroud and relate it to free agency success, though. Another way of looking at it was the Bills couldn't do any serious work in free agency so they gave up draft picks to get a guy to anchor their DL. Thank goodness they didn't stick their head in a hole and assume McCargo would emerge, just standing by watching the parade go by.

 

(BTW, Fowler is a UFA, right?)

 

This article puts things in perspective.

 

At that time, they weren't looking for Pro Bowlers at alot of those positions and were only looking for stop gaps so they atleast had some players to play those positions until they could bring in guys that better fit their plans. Maybe 2-3 of those guys (tripplett, Fowler and Royal) were actually looked at as possible answers to their positions. The others were filler pieces who they hoped might surprise and do well at a cheap cost. The Bills will have to live by the draft and reclaimation projects because they don't have the market to support big spending in FA. It doesn't matter how loaded theowner is, if the money is not coming back to them to support the spending, they won't be spending it.

This smacks a bit of revisionism to me. At the time Levy said they were going after guys that were on the younger, unproven side, but guys that they thought had the right skills and temperament that when brought along by the Bills fine coaching staff would really blossom quickly into excellent players. They essentially got tattooed with a no hitter in 06, unless someone wants to claim Robert Royal is an up-and-coming excellent TE.

[vincec]

2007: Buffalo signed G Dockery, RT Walker, OL Jason Whittle, and CB Jason Webster to contracts. Neither Dockery nor Walker are the strong OL presence the Bills thought they acquired, but represented 74M in contracts. Whittle most likely is finished, and Webster lasted all of a game before predictably getting injured.

I agree completely about Dockery, but I think that Langston Walker has played pretty well and definitely lived up to his contract, which is smaller than Dockery's. I'm surprised to hear people picking on him.

[BillsVet]

I'm not really sure if I'd call out the trade for Stroud and relate it to free agency success, though. Another way of looking at it was the Bills couldn't do any serious work in free agency so they gave up draft picks to get a guy to anchor their DL. Thank goodness they didn't stick their head in a hole and assume McCargo would emerge, just standing by watching the parade go by.

 

(BTW, Fowler is a UFA, right?)

 

The DT position is a microcosm of what's wrong with this team. A busted draft pick, bad FA acquisition in Tripplett, and trading more picks for a DT who is still pretty good, but will be 31 when the season begins.

 

All in all, the Bills have traded away a 2nd, 2 3rds, and a 5th to acquire the first for McCargo and Stroud. Now Buffalo has Williams, who is undersized and not an ideal 3 technique, along with Johnson who is a depth player. After that, they're still thin at DT.

 

After three seasons of rebuilding, the OL and DL still are major issues. So much that we're talking about acquiring a DE and C in UFA.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I agree completely about Dockery, but I think that Langston Walker has played pretty well and definitely lived up to his contract, which is smaller than Dockery's. I'm surprised to hear people picking on him.

I totally agree Vince, I feel that Walker has played well too. We Tivo the games in hi-def and watch afterwards replaying plays numerous times and if I was grading him, I'd grade him well. He doesn't have elite feet and that's why he's a right tackle. But in the time he played on the left side for Peters, he played very well and to me he is an underrated player, not an overrated one.

[BobDVA]

I too must jump on the get off of Walker bandwagon. I think we got what we paid for, and he does not need to be replaced. Dockery is overpaid, and an underachiever. However, he is there, not going away, and not worth complaining about.

[Justice]

I'm reading how some fans think the Bills will spend big in UFA because the fan base is depressed, RW is going into HOF, and because the Bills have the chance to sign some big players along with showing upwards of 30M to spend in UFA. IMO, those items have little bearing on the team's plan in UFA. I think history shows that Buffalo is modest when they need to be, but also recognize that spending big does not equate to winning during the season.

 

The Bills last three off-seasons are a mix and match of how they "improved" their roster.

 

2006: Bills signed 2 RFA's to offer sheets: G Reggie Wells of Arizona and DL Israel Idonije from Chicago. Both players were retained by their former clubs. The team hosted DT Ryan Pickett from STL, who ended up signing with GB for 4 yrs and 14M. Buffalo then signed DT Larry Tripplett to a modest 5 yr 18.5M deal. Following this, Buffalo inked TE Robert Royal, C Melvin Fowler, WR Peerless Price, CB Kiwaukee Thomas, RB Anthony Thomas, S Matt Bowen, QB Craig Nall, G Tutan Reyes, and WR/KR Andre Davis. Three seasons later, only Fowler and Royal remain, with both being poor options at their positions.

 

2007: Buffalo signed G Dockery, RT Walker, OL Jason Whittle, and CB Jason Webster to contracts. Neither Dockery nor Walker are the strong OL presence the Bills thought they acquired, but represented 74M in contracts. Whittle most likely is finished, and Webster lasted all of a game before predictably getting injured.

 

2008: LB Kawika Mitchell was acquired for 5 yrs and 17.5M at the outset of the signing period. Later, the Bills traded for DT Marcus Stroud, while signing DT Spencer Johnson away from Minnesota.

 

In retrospect, the Bills haven't seriously considered tendering RFA's since the poor 2006 FA period. 07 saw a reversal from the quantity that 06 represented, but hasn't brought about quality players in Dockery and Walker. 2008 seemed to be an improvement in shoring up the defensive front 7, although the defense still needs a pass rusher and another LB.

 

I see the Bills going after one marquee name, a moderate player, and perhaps another depth guy. I could see C Jason Brown, a veteran QB to back up Edwards, and a depth LB. Anything beyond that would be irrational given the economy (whether that's as legit reason around WNY) and fact that the Bills look for only certain players to fit their schemes.

 

Buffalo builds their team at their pace. Even though it's deliberately slow, breaking the bank has proven to hurt teams more often than help. Dockery and Walker's contract was Buffalo's first foray into spending in UFA since 02-03, and it has not worked out. No doubt RW remembers signing Bledsoe, Fletcher, and Spikes and still not having a very good team.

 

 

I can't believe John Guy still has a job

[LabattBlue]

I can't believe John Guy still has a job

...and along the way, he gets promoted!

[Bill from NYC]

History tells me that the Bills will make a big move at Bertrand Berry. Why? It brings back memories of Jim Jeffcoat.

He was good for the team, but way past his prime when we got him.

[SuperKillerRobots]

I'm reading how some fans think the Bills will spend big in UFA because the fan base is depressed, RW is going into HOF, and because the Bills have the chance to sign some big players along with showing upwards of 30M to spend in UFA. IMO, those items have little bearing on the team's plan in UFA. I think history shows that Buffalo is modest when they need to be, but also recognize that spending big does not equate to winning during the season.

 

The Bills last three off-seasons are a mix and match of how they "improved" their roster.

 

2006: Bills signed 2 RFA's to offer sheets: G Reggie Wells of Arizona and DL Israel Idonije from Chicago. Both players were retained by their former clubs. The team hosted DT Ryan Pickett from STL, who ended up signing with GB for 4 yrs and 14M. Buffalo then signed DT Larry Tripplett to a modest 5 yr 18.5M deal. Following this, Buffalo inked TE Robert Royal, C Melvin Fowler, WR Peerless Price, CB Kiwaukee Thomas, RB Anthony Thomas, S Matt Bowen, QB Craig Nall, G Tutan Reyes, and WR/KR Andre Davis. Three seasons later, only Fowler and Royal remain, with both being poor options at their positions.

 

2007: Buffalo signed G Dockery, RT Walker, OL Jason Whittle, and CB Jason Webster to contracts. Neither Dockery nor Walker are the strong OL presence the Bills thought they acquired, but represented 74M in contracts. Whittle most likely is finished, and Webster lasted all of a game before predictably getting injured.

 

2008: LB Kawika Mitchell was acquired for 5 yrs and 17.5M at the outset of the signing period. Later, the Bills traded for DT Marcus Stroud, while signing DT Spencer Johnson away from Minnesota.

 

In retrospect, the Bills haven't seriously considered tendering RFA's since the poor 2006 FA period. 07 saw a reversal from the quantity that 06 represented, but hasn't brought about quality players in Dockery and Walker. 2008 seemed to be an improvement in shoring up the defensive front 7, although the defense still needs a pass rusher and another LB.

 

I see the Bills going after one marquee name, a moderate player, and perhaps another depth guy. I could see C Jason Brown, a veteran QB to back up Edwards, and a depth LB. Anything beyond that would be irrational given the economy (whether that's as legit reason around WNY) and fact that the Bills look for only certain players to fit their schemes.

 

Buffalo builds their team at their pace. Even though it's deliberately slow, breaking the bank has proven to hurt teams more often than help. Dockery and Walker's contract was Buffalo's first foray into spending in UFA since 02-03, and it has not worked out. No doubt RW remembers signing Bledsoe, Fletcher, and Spikes and still not having a very good team.

 

Nice post. I think a lot of the 2006 FA/RFA signings/attempted signings and the talent tlevels associated with them has more to do witht eh state of the roster at that time than any talent evaluation. They were a terrible team at the end of 2005 with a ton of holes to fill. They signed a lot fo these mediocre to terrible FAs in hopes of fielding a team that could compete, not necessarily one that was going to win anything. A lot of those players were counted on to play big roles and most were pedestrian players at best for their former teams. I think the team was so bad that Marv just wanted bodies in here so they had options as far as who would make the roster. This poor FA class was supplemented with a pretty solid draft class and a good number of those draftees are still on the team today. As the years went on, they seemed to be more willing to pay more for players as evidenced by the OL in 2007 and the defense in 2008. I think history would say that when the Bills look like they could have a shot, Ralph has been known to pony up some dough for a good FA signing (not necessarily a huge splash, but a TKO type signing). In the end, I agree with your speculation about the FA this year as far as one big player, one moderate player, and a couple of low end players. I just think that the big ticket player will be a TKO-caliber signing (a top 5 or 10 FA).

[BillsVet]

This poor FA class was supplemented with a pretty solid draft class and a good number of those draftees are still on the team today. As the years went on, they seemed to be more willing to pay more for players as evidenced by the OL in 2007 and the defense in 2008.

 

From a team building perspective, Buffalo made huge mistakes in UFA 06, specifically Tripplett and Price. And the shine on the 06 draft is wearing as people realize it wasn't what it was made out to be. Whitner is average, McCargo a bust, Youboty can't stay healthy, Simpson has recognition issues at S, while Williams and Butler are good value picks. Ellison is a backup LB/ST'er. Three average starters is no way to build your team, as none are impact players.

 

Rebuilding for three years and never going above 7-9 is an anomaly. That tells me there are significant issues in the front office, and it's my hope the team starts getting it right by taking personnel authority away from DJ.

 

My expectations will always be low with the front office crew in place. If something happens, then great. If not, well, it's not a surprise. There's no sense getting amped up for a let-down, which is what this team has done for 9 seasons now.