eball Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 I think this is a classic example of the early-season delay in matching preseason expectations with actual game results. If both teams were at full strength, the spread would be around 7 points. Factor in Jacksonville's bad showing a week ago, their OL injuries, and the Bills' performance, and there's no way the spread should be more than 3. I expect this line to go down steadily as the week progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marauderswr80 Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Usually a home team gets atleast 3 points due to being at home. Why the Bills didnt over the weekend I dont know. But I think 6 is about right. For as banged up as that OL is for the Jags, they still have a solid defense over there. Hey I like any material this team can use to motivate themselves. Before the season began this is the one game I had circled as being important. If they can win Sunday, I'll be REAL excited about this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOBILLS78 Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 The Jaguars at home in September (don't tell me about '03) are going to be a tough, tough out. Still, if the Bills' defense plays like it did Sunday, I like our chances. Six is probably about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macaroni Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 IMHO .... 1.) With the holes in their O-line, I don't see the Jags moving the ball too well 2.) With our special teams I see us winning the field position battle making them play on a long field all day (and conversly, us playing on a short field) 3.) Distinct possibility that we jump to an early lead forcing the Jags to play from behind somewhat taking them out of the run game 4.) I see Stroud playing like his hair is on fire My only real worry is the weather ....... does the heat take it's toll and wear us down phisically and mentally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richNjoisy Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 IMHO .... 1.) With the holes in their O-line, I don't see the Jags moving the ball too well 2.) With our special teams I see us winning the field position battle making them play on a long field all day (and conversly, us playing on a short field) 3.) Distinct possibility that we jump to an early lead forcing the Jags to play from behind somewhat taking them out of the run game 4.) I see Stroud playing like his hair is on fire My only real worry is the weather ....... does the heat take it's toll and wear us down phisically and mentally? The weather will be a factor - hot humid about 90 with the usual rain threat. But, the Bills have a good rotation at the key line positions. Stroud certainly will still be used to it. The 6 point spread is, in my opinion, simply the delay in bettor support for the Bills. I see the Bills keeping this very close and if they win the TO battle (or tie), then they will prevail. 2-0 baby!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lt. Dan's Revenge Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 The weather will be a factor - hot humid about 90 with the usual rain threat. But, the Bills have a good rotation at the key line positions. Stroud certainly will still be used to it. The 6 point spread is, in my opinion, simply the delay in bettor support for the Bills. I see the Bills keeping this very close and if they win the TO battle (or tie), then they will prevail. 2-0 baby!! That is a great point. I think our new defensive line rotation will be absolutely pivotal in this game. The Jaguars will also be starting 3 backups out of the 5 O-line positions. These two points make it a distinct possibility that any fatigue factor from the heat will have more of an affect on the home team IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastMode54 Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 I think the Bills will win this game, but don't forget, football is played on 2 sides of the ball. The Jags have a very good defense. Henderson and Peterson are beasts. They also have a good Special Teams. In addition to that, this will be their home opener, so they should be fired up. Not saying we can't win, and it is definitely a huge benefit that their offensive line is hurt at 3 positions, but I would NOT overlook that they are a very good football team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kipers Hair Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 I think this is a classic example of the early-season delay in matching preseason expectations with actual game results. If both teams were at full strength, the spread would be around 7 points. Factor in Jacksonville's bad showing a week ago, their OL injuries, and the Bills' performance, and there's no way the spread should be more than 3. I expect this line to go down steadily as the week progresses. 6 appears about right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloSteph Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 4.) I see Stroud playing like his hair is on fire Didn't his teammates say something along the lines of they are bet ter off without him? I hope that he uses that as a motivating factor as well. This guy is a BEAST and I love it. I think this line is showing glimpses of greatness that will continue to shine through as the season progresses. I am always excited about the season, but some of the things I saw on Sunday make me believe Jauron's Yale education paid off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 I think the Bills will win this game, but don't forget, football is played on 2 sides of the ball. The Jags have a very good defense. Henderson and Peterson are beasts. They also have a good Special Teams. In addition to that, this will be their home opener, so they should be fired up. Not saying we can't win, and it is definitely a huge benefit that their offensive line is hurt at 3 positions, but I would NOT overlook that they are a very good football team good point, but special teams is left out above. the jags at home early are worth more than 3 (call it 4, as a home game for the bills vs a warm weather team late would be about 4 as well). the jags beat us well last year (yeah it seemed close at times, but they broke it open and scored) and last year, particularly early, the bills were HORRIBLE on the road. oh, and the preception is that we are still not good on D, seattle had no WRs and we are pretenders, this is cuz of how bad we were in yardage d last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 J-Ville was a playoff team, Bufflao wasn't. The home team automatically gets 3 points. Based on points scored per offense based on LAST season. A computer that creates these scores can't factor in intangibles. If you are insulted that much place $100 on the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 IIRC, last year's game was closer than the final score. Bills got better. Jags are about the same. Bills should win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 It's only Tuesday. Relax. When people start betting the Bills it will go down. This is more about betting than it is the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 BuffTown's Superbowl Bound Bills: +65 JoJo-lovin' Jackoffville's Fangless Felines: -3 19 and 0 baby!!! GO BILLSSS!!!! PosLUSZny!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 9, 2008 Author Share Posted September 9, 2008 To clarify: I'm neither "insulted" by the line nor oblivious to the respective finishes of both teams last season. Believe it or not, I have a little bit of experience in these matters and know how the lines work. The premise of my original post is only that the oddsmakers are reacting to the fact that the betting public still perceives J-ville as unreasonably strong and the Bills as unreasonably weak. Once the season starts it generally takes a few weeks before the betting public's perceptions more closely match reality. Yes, the home team gets 3 points regardless of who's playing; I know that. I still believe it will be down to 5 or 4 by week's end, as the betting public realizes the depth of J-ville's injury issues and more closely examines Buffalo's domination of Seattle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Also to clarify: I'm aware that Jackoffville won't actually score -3 against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 I'd be interested in seeing the numbers of first week results vs overall season finish. I imagine the first week is the least reliable in predicting the outcome of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 I think this is a classic example of the early-season delay in matching preseason expectations with actual game results. If both teams were at full strength, the spread would be around 7 points. Factor in Jacksonville's bad showing a week ago, their OL injuries, and the Bills' performance, and there's no way the spread should be more than 3. I expect this line to go down steadily as the week progresses. Odds aren't set by what the experts think the actual results will be, they are set by what the experts think the bettors think the results will be. Which is simply the reason that explains up your observation that there is a delay between when performance catches up with reputation. It takes awhile for the betting pubic to change their minds on how good or bad a team is. Opening weeks are weird. They are the only game where the staff has an unlimited amount of time to prepare and game plan for and it is the one game where there is no recent film on their opponents. In 3-4 weeks, teams start to hit their stride and you can see better if they are the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin in Va Beach Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 My only real worry is the weather ....... does the heat take it's toll and wear us down phisically and mentally? Not too worried about that. It's still near summer-like conditions in Western NY so the temperature change won't be as drastic as say playing in 40/50 degree weather in Buffalo one week then going to 80+ degrees in Miami. The Bills should still be fairly acclimated to the heat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seq004 Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 It is a surprising to me at least. I could see 3 or 4 but opening at 7 and now 6 is surprising , but good under the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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