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a good reason bills dont go willis with #12


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Bills | Crowell most likely to replace Fletcher-Baker

Mon, 19 Mar 2007 14:31:41 -0700

 

Chris Brown, of BuffaloBills.com, reports Buffalo Bills LB Angelo Crowell is the odds-on favorite to replace LB London Fletcher-Baker (Redskins) in the middle of the Bills' defense. His teammates believe Crowell will certainly fill the leadership void left by Fletcher-Baker

 

 

i guess the MLB spot is already pretty much solved.

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Ellison will most likely be the other starter with Spikes on the other side

 

 

If Spikes recovery has progressed enough, I think you are right. The Bills should know that soon.

 

They'll still probably want to draft for depth and the near future. I wouldn't count Willis out yet.

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If Spikes recovery has progressed enough, I think you are right. The Bills should know that soon.

 

They'll still probably want to draft for depth and the near future. I wouldn't count Willis out yet.

 

but we're talking depth vs neccesity and I think RB is a greater NEED...may be?

 

could Fred Jackson be as important to hisunit as Crowell/Ellison/Youboty are to theirs?

 

who really knows where the need is anymore!!

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If Spikes recovery has progressed enough, I think you are right. The Bills should know that soon.

 

They'll still probably want to draft for depth and the near future. I wouldn't count Willis out yet.

I am thinking more like Posluszny!!!! :devil: in round 2. (Okoye in round 1, Leonard in round 3)

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I am thinking more like Posluszny!!!! :devil: in round 2. (Okoye in round 1, Leonard in round 3)

 

If your polish LB buddy lasts to the Bills 2nd round pick, it would be a great pick. Unfortunately for the Bills, that just is NOT going to happen. If they want Pos, they should trade down and pick him in the mid-to-late 1st, IMO. (OR package one of their thirds and second and make him the team's second 1st round pick.)

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If your polish LB buddy lasts to the Bills 2nd round pick, it would be a great pick. Unfortunately for the Bills, that just is NOT going to happen. If they want Pos, they should trade down and pick him in the mid-to-late 1st, IMO. (OR package one of their thirds and second and make him the team's second 1st round pick.)

Ok then, it's settled...

 

Round 1a - Okoye

Round 1b - Posluszny!!!! :devil:

Round 3 -- Leonard

 

19 and 0 baby!!! :worthy:

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the problem with your theory of poz as late 1 is updated projections have him ahead of timmons going 14 ,after patrick willis and poszluny ,the lbs prospects are filled with holes, theres likely to be some good ones,, bradley,okum,timmons,everett ,beason? but the nearest thing to a garunteed starter are those two.

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the problem with your theory of poz as late 1 is updated projections have him ahead of timmons going 14 ,after patrick willis and poszluny ,the lbs prospects are filled with holes, theres likely to be some good ones,, bradley,okum,timmons,everett ,beason? but the nearest thing to a garunteed starter are those two.

 

 

I also think there is a chance of Poz going fairly early. But, I'd been hearing rumors of his projected draft position sliding, as of late. I think we can leave The Senator with some hope of a mid-late 1st round possibility, but disabuse him of his 2nd round dream.

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Bills | Crowell most likely to replace Fletcher-Baker

Mon, 19 Mar 2007 14:31:41 -0700

 

Chris Brown, of BuffaloBills.com, reports Buffalo Bills LB Angelo Crowell is the odds-on favorite to replace LB London Fletcher-Baker (Redskins) in the middle of the Bills' defense. His teammates believe Crowell will certainly fill the leadership void left by Fletcher-Baker

i guess the MLB spot is already pretty much solved.

It'll be interesting to see who comes off the board 1st for us this draft. It's been posted here that we don't need shutdown type corners (bye-bye NC...enter Youboty, Greer, Thomas). This post suggests our MLB is on the roster already in AC. We've added 3 OL thru FA, you have to believe this position is not a high priority if a priority at all. Don't need a QB. By all accounts don't need a WR. You're set at safety. We hear Royal is satisfactory, though I'd like to see a more dynamic threat. Schobel is anchored on one side with a platoon of Kelsay/Denney. There are #'s at the DT position, though I'd contend we could be more stout.

 

RB appears to be the biggest need, no? I'm just not thrilled with selecting one at #12. I would take one if there was something else in it for us, that being another pick thru a trade down. DT and LB would be the next area of concern.

 

I'd like to get inside the heads of our decision makers and see what THEY perceive to be our area(s) of greatest need and just how they plan on addressing them. Will the first couple of picks represent what they perceive to be greatest need or are they selecting best available?

 

I can't wait to find out.

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I don't think the Bills draft anyone on day one that they don't expect to come in and play/start early in the season. If they are looking at a position for depth, it will probably come on day 2

Good observation. :devil:

 

Whatever the position, they're looking for immediate impact, IMO.

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I'd like to get inside the heads of our decision makers and see what THEY perceive to be our area(s) of greatest need and just how they plan on addressing them. Will the first couple of picks represent what they perceive to be greatest need or are they selecting best available?

 

I can't wait to find out.

 

 

I'm a firm believer that pretty much all good NFL GMs pick the best available value player at a need position for the team. That is, there are going to be some positions they aren't even considering, so an available player at that position is NOT the best available as he doesn't add value to the team. Also, you have to consider who else may be available later in the draft. For example, let's say there is one great DT and the rest are not of the quality the team wants/can live with. Now, let's say there is one equally great RB, but there are two more really good RBs and a few more who may be quite good, as well who will available later in the draft. In this case the DT's value might be much higher than the RB to a team, even though their "objective quality" is equal.

 

When judging "best available", it just HAS TO be analyzed through the subjective filter of the team's needs and the draft's strengths and weaknesses. My example and explanation are very simplified, I know. It's more complex than that.

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I am thinking more like Posluszny!!!! :devil: in round 2. (Okoye in round 1, Leonard in round 3)

 

Okoye probably will go in the top 10 but I hope he slips to 12. Posluszny more likely will go in the mid to late first round. I could see him being a Levy pick. He talks a lot about moving down in the 87' draft and picking Shane Conlan. Poz has some of the same qualities.

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I'm a firm believer that pretty much all good NFL GMs pick the best available value player at a need position for the team. That is, there are going to be some positions they aren't even considering, so an available player at that position is NOT the best available as he doesn't add value to the team. Also, you have to consider who else may be available later in the draft. For example, let's say there is one great DT and the rest are not of the quality the team wants/can live with. Now, let's say there is one equally great RB, but there are two more really good RBs and a few more who may be quite good, as well who will available later in the draft. In this case the DT's value might be much higher than the RB to a team, even though their "objective quality" is equal.

 

When judging "best available", it just HAS TO be analyzed through the subjective filter of the team's needs and the draft's strengths and weaknesses. My example and explanation are very simplified, I know. It's more complex than that.

Well put. I would agree that a "successful" draft strategy would run, generally speaking, on this premise of "best available". Having said that, RB though a need, is not what we're targeting in round 1. Or at least not with our first selection. I think it's very real ML might just do another trade up into the 1st round much like last year and perhaps scoop up Lynch. Should Peterson fall to us, does he represent the best available VALUE to the Bills? Take him or trade out?

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If your polish LB buddy lasts to the Bills 2nd round pick, it would be a great pick. Unfortunately for the Bills, that just is NOT going to happen. If they want Pos, they should trade down and pick him in the mid-to-late 1st, IMO. (OR package one of their thirds and second and make him the team's second 1st round pick.)

Trade downs are not as easy as many seem to think they are. There has to be no one you are interested in available at your original spot for you to consider moving down. There has to be someone there a team drafting later in the round really wants and who that team is convinced won't be there when their original pick is up. The team moving down has to undergo a similar analysis regarding whoever it is they really want in the round, albeit with a later pick.

 

I think that too often the assumption around here is that any trade down we dream up is there for the taking if only our "senile" GM would pull the trigger. That just isn't the case.

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Trade downs are not as easy as many seem to think they are. There has to be no one you are interested in available at your original spot for you to consider moving down. There has to be someone there a team drafting later in the round really wants and who that team is convinced won't be there when their original pick is up. The team moving down has to undergo a similar analysis regarding whoever it is they really want in the round, albeit with a later pick.

 

I think that too often the assumption around here is that any trade down we dream up is there for the taking if only our "senile" GM would pull the trigger. That just isn't the case.

 

 

In every trade, it takes (at least) two willing parties. You are right, a lot of people seem to forget that.

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Okoye probably will go in the top 10 but I hope he slips to 12. Posluszny more likely will go in the mid to late first round. I could see him being a Levy pick. He talks a lot about moving down in the 87' draft and picking Shane Conlan. Poz has some of the same qualities.

 

 

Exactly! I love puz, I want puz. But I really feel if the Bills want him, they have to take him at 12. Though that may seem high to some people, Levy made it clear last year, he'll take the guy he wants when he picks, no matter where that is. I have this suspicion that Puz is the perfect Levy guy. Great player, good student, humble, and he's played his best in 2005 as the WLB in the college equivilant to the cover 2 defense at Penn State. I would love nothing more then to get Okoye at 12 and then trade up to the late first to get Puz. But that's taking a big chance that he won't be there. A lot of mocks have him going as high as 13 to St. Louis. So I think if he's the highest rated player on Levy's board in a need position when he picks, don't be surprise to see puz picked at 12.

 

By the way, Shane Conlon, another great LB from Linebacker U!

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Exactly! I love puz, I want puz. But I really feel if the Bills want him, they have to take him at 12. Though that may seem high to some people, Levy made it clear last year, he'll take the guy he wants when he picks, no matter where that is. I have this suspicion that Puz is the perfect Levy guy. Great player, good student, humble, and he's played his best in 2005 as the WLB in the college equivilant to the cover 2 defense at Penn State. I would love nothing more then to get Okoye at 12 and then trade up to the late first to get Puz. But that's taking a big chance that he won't be there. A lot of mocks have him going as high as 13 to St. Louis. So I think if he's the highest rated player on Levy's board in a need position when he picks, don't be surprise to see puz picked at 12.

 

By the way, Shane Conlon, another great LB from Linebacker U!

 

 

It's also possible (given other teams needs, etc) that he'll pick Poz at 12 and trade to get Okoye a little later.

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If Okoye or Peterson is still there at 12, we have to take one of them. If they are both gone my best guess is that we trade down a few spots and take some combination of running back and linebacker with our two first round picks. (obviously, this presupposes that we take our extra pick from trading down from 12 and get back into the end of the first round) How about Marshawn Lynch and Pozlusny? That is two starters right there men.

 

We put Crowell in the middle, and than let Ellison, Spikes, and Pozlusny fight it out as to who starts. I think we may even bring in another linebacker later on to put into the mix as well. Remember that Ellison is a sixth round pick who was able to play. I believe the Bills feel that anyone they draft on defense has a chance to really contribute. No projects will be drafted on the defensive side of the ball.

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When judging "best available", it just HAS TO be analyzed through the subjective filter of the team's needs and the draft's strengths and weaknesses. My example and explanation are very simplified, I know. It's more complex than that.

 

Agreed...And lets not forget it's the BPA at a Need Position based on the Bills evaluation of said Prospect...For example, I don't think there is any question the Bills were MUCH higher on Donte Whitner than some other Teams last year...So it's tough to determine exactly who that BPA at a Need Position is because it's tough to know who Marv and Co. are truly enamoured with...

 

My guess is the Bills would LOVE to see Adrian Peterson fall to #12...After that I think they are hoping for Okoye and they will settle for Lynch...Obviously I have no real idea though...I guess we'll see soon enough... :unsure:

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I can't wait to see the board crash when Marv picks someone completely unexpected.

 

haha TBD traditionalist are going to crap themselves...they think there's been a nauseating influx of new posters during the off-season, just wait till Marv K's us all with an 0-2 screw ball!

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I didn't know this board was an exclusive club! :unsure:

 

 

ooh yea its like the VFW except instead of having to go through a foreign war we have to be bills fans and watch our team lose 4 consecutive superbowls and yadda yadda.. although vfw's are cooler because you get cheap booze and listen to old men share war stories with the same people every friday night...

 

hey :censored: poineer members :censored: , do we get at least a book of coupons or a complimentary pack of labatts?

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