The Big Cat Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Okay so I checked out the playoff scenario drawn up by professional Bills nerd Chris Brown and found his analysis to be thin and containing a lot of Bills-friendly what-ifs. Here are my predictions for how the rest of the season will likely shape up for all AFC "contenders." By my good sense, the Bills are out of reach...(home games capitalized) TEAM WEEK 13 L3Opp Outcomes FINAL REC NE 9-4 HOU Win 10-6 jax Loss ten Loss BAL 10-3 CLE Win pit Win BUF Loss 13-3 SD 11-2 KC Win 14-2 sea Win AZ Win INDY 10-3 CIN Win 13-3 hou Win MIA Win CIN 8-5 ind Loss 10-6 den Win PIT Win JAX 8-5 ten Win 10-6 NE Win kc Loss And the following teams finishing 9-7 will be- NYJ (minW, miaL, OAKw), KC (sd L, oak, W, JAX W), DEN (azW, CINL, SFW), BUF (MIAW, TENW, balW) with TEN (JAXL, bufL, NEW) and MIA (bufL, NYJW, indL) finishing 7-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daquixers_is_back Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Okay so I checked out the playoff scenario drawn up by professional Bills nerd Chris Brown and found his analysis to be thin and containing a lot of Bills-friendly what-ifs. Here are my predictions for how the rest of the season will likely shape up for all AFC "contenders." By my good sense, the Bills are out of reach...(home games capitalized)TEAM WEEK 13 L3Opp Outcomes FINAL REC NE 9-4 HOU Win 10-6 jax Loss ten Loss BAL 10-3 CLE Win pit Win BUF Loss 13-3 SD 11-2 KC Win 14-2 sea Win AZ Win INDY 10-3 CIN Win 13-3 hou Win MIA Win CIN 8-5 ind Loss 10-6 den Win PIT Win JAX 8-5 ten Win 10-6 NE Win kc Loss And the following teams finishing 9-7 will be- NYJ (minW, miaL, OAKw), KC (sd L, oak, W, JAX W), DEN (azW, CINL, SFW), BUF (MIAW, TENW, balW) with TEN (JAXL, bufL, NEW) and MIA (bufL, NYJW, indL) finishing 7-9 863316[/snapback] Do you have a link for Chris Browns playoff scenario? edit: nevermind I found it http://buffalobills.com/blog/index.jsp?blogger_id=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syhuang Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 And the following teams finishing 9-7 will be- NYJ (minW, miaL, OAKw), KC (sd L, oak, W, JAX W), DEN (azW, CINL, SFW), BUF (MIAW, TENW, balW) with TEN (JAXL, bufL, NEW) and MIA (bufL, NYJW, indL) finishing 7-9 863316[/snapback] Maybe I understand the playoff tiebreak wrong, but isn't this one of the scenarios that Bills go to playoff? In this case, Bills beat Jets based on better conference record and KC beat DEN because of better division record. Then, Bills wins wild card over KC because of better conference record. Chris Brown playoff breakdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daquixers_is_back Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Maybe I understand the playoff tiebreak wrong, but doesn't this is one of the scenarios that Bills go to playoff? In this case, Bills beat Jets based on better conference record and KC beat DEN because of better division record. Then, Bills wins wild card over KC because of better conference record. 863339[/snapback] Thats what im thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syhuang Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Maybe I understand the playoff tiebreak wrong, but isn't this one of the scenarios that Bills go to playoff? In this case, Bills beat Jets based on better conference record and KC beat DEN because of better division record. Then, Bills wins wild card over KC because of better conference record. 863339[/snapback] I didn't read TheWindySwedishSix post carefully. He has Cin and Jax going 10-6 and thus, winning the two wild cards. All the 9-7 teams miss playoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folz Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Ah to dream for one more week> Based on Chris Brown's playoff scenarios here's what needs to happen: The Bills 6-7 (remaining games: MIA, TENN, @BAL) must win out, of course. No easy task. Cinncinati 8-5 (@IND, DEN, PITT) would need to lose 3 of 3 for the Bills to be ahead of them, which probably won't happen, so I'll say Cincy takes the first wild card spot. (Cincy as of now has the tiebbreaker over the Bills) Then we would need the following things to happen to steal the second wild card spot: Jacksonville 8-5 (@TENN, NE, @KC) would have to lose 2 of their last 3 games. (Bills own tiebreaker) Denver 7-6 (@ARZ, CINN, SF) would have to lose 2 of their last 3 games. (Denver owns tiebreaker) The Jets 7-6 (@MINN, @MIA, OAK) would have to either lose at Miami, or if they beat Miami lose to both Minn and Oak. (If they lose to Miami, Bills would have tiebreaker) The Chiefs 7-6 (@IND, DEN, PITT) would have to lose 1 of their next 3 games. (Bills own tiebreaker) Tiebreakers above are of course dependent on the Bills winning out. (We have tiebreakers over Mia, Tenn, Pitt so they would be eliminated if we win out) Stranger things have happened, but we still need to win out and get a lot of help. But we can all keep dreaming for at least one more week. Let's go Buffalo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syhuang Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Ah to dream for one more week> Based on Chris Brown's playoff scenarios here's what needs to happen: The Bills 6-7 (remaining games: MIA, TENN, @BAL) must win out, of course. No easy task. Cinncinati 8-5 (@IND, DEN, PITT) would need to lose 3 of 3 for the Bills to be ahead of them, which probably won't happen, so I'll say Cincy takes the first wild card spot. (Cincy as of now has the tiebbreaker over the Bills) Then we would need the following things to happen to steal the second wild card spot: Jacksonville 8-5 (@TENN, NE, @KC) would have to lose 2 of their last 3 games. (Bills own tiebreaker) Denver 7-6 (@ARZ, CINN, SF) would have to lose 2 of their last 3 games. (Denver owns tiebreaker) The Jets 7-6 (@MINN, @MIA, OAK) would have to either lose at Miami, or if they beat Miami lose to both Minn and Oak. (If they lose to Miami, Bills would have tiebreaker) The Chiefs 7-6 (@IND, DEN, PITT) would have to lose 1 of their next 3 games. (Bills own tiebreaker) Tiebreakers above are of course dependent on the Bills winning out. (We have tiebreakers over Mia, Tenn, Pitt so they would be eliminated if we win out) Stranger things have happened, but we still need to win out and get a lot of help. But we can all keep dreaming for at least one more week. Let's go Buffalo! 863380[/snapback] Just one thing to add, Denver doesn't need to lose two of last three games. If Denver and Kansas City tied at 9-7, Denver is eliminated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMIEBUF12 Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 hell i'd be happy with 8-8 winning the next 2 out of 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tcali Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 Okay so I checked out the playoff scenario drawn up by professional Bills nerd Chris Brown and found his analysis to be thin and containing a lot of Bills-friendly what-ifs. Here are my predictions for how the rest of the season will likely shape up for all AFC "contenders." By my good sense, the Bills are out of reach...(home games capitalized)TEAM WEEK 13 L3Opp Outcomes FINAL REC NE 9-4 HOU Win 10-6 jax Loss ten Loss BAL 10-3 CLE Win pit Win BUF Loss 13-3 SD 11-2 KC Win 14-2 sea Win AZ Win INDY 10-3 CIN Win 13-3 hou Win MIA Win CIN 8-5 ind Loss 10-6 den Win PIT Win JAX 8-5 ten Win 10-6 NE Win kc Loss And the following teams finishing 9-7 will be- NYJ (minW, miaL, OAKw), KC (sd L, oak, W, JAX W), DEN (azW, CINL, SFW), BUF (MIAW, TENW, balW) with TEN (JAXL, bufL, NEW) and MIA (bufL, NYJW, indL) finishing 7-9 863316[/snapback] 8-8 would be an amazing year. AT Balt?? hmmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajzepp Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 hell i'd be happy with 8-8 winning the next 2 out of 3 863581[/snapback] Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 Okay so I checked out the playoff scenario drawn up by professional Bills nerd Chris Brown and found his analysis to be thin and containing a lot of Bills-friendly what-ifs. Here are my predictions for how the rest of the season will likely shape up for all AFC "contenders." By my good sense, the Bills are out of reach...(home games capitalized)TEAM WEEK 13 L3Opp Outcomes FINAL REC NE 9-4 HOU Win 10-6 jax Loss ten Loss BAL 10-3 CLE Win pit Win BUF Loss 13-3 SD 11-2 KC Win 14-2 sea Win AZ Win INDY 10-3 CIN Win 13-3 hou Win MIA Win CIN 8-5 ind Loss 10-6 den Win PIT Win JAX 8-5 ten Win 10-6 NE Win kc Loss And the following teams finishing 9-7 will be- NYJ (minW, miaL, OAKw), KC (sd L, oak, W, JAX W), DEN (azW, CINL, SFW), BUF (MIAW, TENW, balW) with TEN (JAXL, bufL, NEW) and MIA (bufL, NYJW, indL) finishing 7-9 863316[/snapback] Do you realize how close this scenario is to us making the playoffs? All we'd need is for Jacksonville to lose one additional game, and we're in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted December 12, 2006 Author Share Posted December 12, 2006 Do you realize how close this scenario is to us making the playoffs? All we'd need is for Jacksonville to lose one additional game, and we're in! 863599[/snapback] are you certain that Buffalo trumps KC, DEN, and NYJ in the event of a tie? because, yes, JAX could lose two of those games... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oneonta Buffalo Fan Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 Do you have a link for Chris Browns playoff scenario? edit: nevermind I found it http://buffalobills.com/blog/index.jsp?blogger_id=1 863331[/snapback] Makes things clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 are you certain that Buffalo trumps KC, DEN, and NYJ in the event of a tie? because, yes, JAX could lose two of those games... 863609[/snapback] See I'm applying what I've read in other playoff threads here. According to others, if its a multi-team tiebreaker, KC will eliminate Denver. This is because to narrow it down if there's a 3-team tie if two teams are in the same division, they're first put h2h, and then the winner is put h2h with the third team. In this scenario, KC would be put head-to-head with Denver, and would knock them out. Also, since its the Dolphins who you have beating the Jets, we'd have a better conference record, and we would knock the Jets out because the Bills and Jets are in the same division. That would leave KC, JAX and the Bills at 9-7, with Denver and the Jests eliminated. And from what I've read, we'd hold the AFC record tiebreaker on those teams. [EDIT: I just tallied it up. If we win out, we're 7-5 in conference. The Jags are currently 5-4, so if they finish 9-7 they'll be 6-6 in conference. The Chiefs already have 6 conference losses. So if they finish 9-7 we will have a superior AFC record to both of these teams and thus will in fact have the tiebreaker on them.] If you want to be sure, read some of the other playoff threads. But that is what I've gathered. Oh, and one thing to potentially be afraid of is that Denver does hold the tiebreaker on us. If Kansas City isn't also in the tie, then Denver trumps us. We need Kansas City there to eliminate Denver h2h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACTOBILLSFAN Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 Do you realize how close this scenario is to us making the playoffs? All we'd need is for Jacksonville to lose one additional game, and we're in! 863599[/snapback] Yeah and with JAX being such a terrific road team I bet they don't lose those two remaining road games (sarcasm off) Its crazy to be talking playoff scenarios yet again. I just hope its not a tease and a major let down next season, but in any event, if we finish 9-7 and miss the playoffs we can look back and see missed opportunities. Like not taking the points in NE, or missing a FG in Indy (tho manning probably would have scored again), or laying an egg against that abomination that is the Detroit Lions. To me these are not negatives, they are simply mistakes that young teams make when they are learning to be winners, and that gives me hope for next year. I am most impressed with JP answering the bell when idiot fans (myself admittedly included) and "experts" were calling for him to be benched in favor of a third string QB, and the kid elevated his game and now looks like he'll be leading the Bills for the forseeable future. GO BILLS!!! PS- didn't i feel this exact same way at the end of 2004? Oh well, this is what being a fan (especially a Bills fan) is all about...hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted December 12, 2006 Author Share Posted December 12, 2006 Yeah and with JAX being such a terrific road team I bet they don't lose those two remaining road games (sarcasm off) Its crazy to be talking playoff scenarios yet again. I just hope its not a tease and a major let down next season, but in any event, if we finish 9-7 and miss the playoffs we can look back and see missed opportunities. Like not taking the points in NE, or missing a FG in Indy (tho manning probably would have scored again), or laying an egg against that abomination that is the Detroit Lions. To me these are not negatives, they are simply mistakes that young teams make when they are learning to be winners, and that gives me hope for next year. I am most impressed with JP answering the bell when idiot fans (myself admittedly included) and "experts" were calling for him to be benched in favor of a third string QB, and the kid elevated his game and now looks like he'll be leading the Bills for the forseeable future. GO BILLS!!! PS- didn't i feel this exact same way at the end of 2004? Oh well, this is what being a fan (especially a Bills fan) is all about...hope. 863640[/snapback] I think there was a similiar "team" buzz in 2004. But I NEVER had the faith in Drew that I have in JP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 Only 3 teams have been eliminated (Cleveland, Houston, and Oakland) We're currently in a 4 way tie for 10th in the playoff race with Miami, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh 10th out of 16 Mathematically possible Logically improbable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in San Diego Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 Okay so I checked out the playoff scenario drawn up by professional Bills nerd Chris Brown and found his analysis to be thin and containing a lot of Bills-friendly what-ifs. Here are my predictions for how the rest of the season will likely shape up for all AFC "contenders." By my good sense, the Bills are out of reach...(home games capitalized)TEAM WEEK 13 L3Opp Outcomes FINAL REC NE 9-4 HOU Win 10-6 jax Loss ten Loss BAL 10-3 CLE Win pit Win BUF Loss 13-3 SD 11-2 KC Win 14-2 sea Win AZ Win INDY 10-3 CIN Win 13-3 hou Win MIA Win CIN 8-5 ind Loss 10-6 den Win PIT Win JAX 8-5 ten Win 10-6 NE Win kc Loss And the following teams finishing 9-7 will be- NYJ (minW, miaL, OAKw), KC (sd L, oak, W, JAX W), DEN (azW, CINL, SFW), BUF (MIAW, TENW, balW) with TEN (JAXL, bufL, NEW) and MIA (bufL, NYJW, indL) finishing 7-9 863316[/snapback] Pretty good picks except I can see Indy losing the rest of their games. The defense is falling apart. And they play good run teams. I see bad things man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koufax Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 The other stuff can go our way fairly easily, but winning out is the hard part. So let's just stomp the fish and wait for this stuff to be even simpler next week. Although it's fun to know who we are rooting against on Sunday as well. The one interesting thing is that if we beat Baltimore somehow to make the playoffs, there is a very good chance we would play them in the first round, which would certainly provide some momentum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted December 12, 2006 Share Posted December 12, 2006 Only 3 teams have been eliminated (Cleveland, Houston, and Oakland) We're currently in a 4 way tie for 10th in the playoff race with Miami, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh 10th out of 16 Mathematically possible Logically improbable 863672[/snapback] Logically improbable? WindySwedishSix just picked the rest of the games to the best of his ability without taking our playoff hopes into consideration in any way. This level-headed approach resulted in a scenario in which the Bills are just one Jaguars loss away from a playoff birth! If we win out, it really isn't that much of a longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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