UPDATE: ISRAEL v IRAN - Ceasefire reached?

[sherpa]

1 hour ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

What's your threshold for success on this mission?  Delaying a deliverable nuke by 6 months, 1 year, 2 years?

 

 

I don't have a "threshold," and your question is the essence of my point.

This strike had immeasurable consequences throughout the middle east, and many of those have nothing to do with actual strike damage.

The fact that the US was willing to go "feet dry" into Iran and undertake an immensely impressive strike is not lost on other players.

CentCom has been asking to do this for years. Deployed carrier task forces, same thing.

It has always been denied.

 

Beyond that, they not only did it, they delivered extremely accurate weapons completely undetected.

Nothing fired at them. No evidence of any real clue that the Iranians even knew they were there.

That is not lost on other belligerents.

 

It is idiotic to judge the success of that strike based on how long it would take them to dig out, start over, start over in another place etc.

 

Building a nuclear ballistic missile is really hard and leaves tracks. Those tracks are much easier to sniff out now.

Spending the time and resources to build an underground enrichment and production plant was time consuming and expensive, and it is very likely severely damaged, and certainly not functioning. 

One the uranium is enriched, the fissile material needs to be weaponized, ie., hardened and made into something that can be delivered.

Ruin that process and you stop the program.  Evidently Isfahan was that location, and it is largely destroyed.

 

My view is that it is ignorant to judge the success of the strike on how long it takes them to clean up. They are way more vulnerable and they know it.

Think the remaining scientists that the Israelis didn't get are operating the same way?

 

Anyway, when I heard Trump's initial comments I cringed, because I knew how ridiculous it was to make such a claim.

I stated as much a week before this, pointing out that this bunker buster talk as a silver bullet was no guarantee and foolish speculation.

It was the single best option, but you simply can't know with certainty.

Very complicated warhead and fuzing, and never designed to get to the depths of Fordow, and that was well known going into this.

Still, the deliveries were perfect, and I'm certain caused massive damage.

Massive damage to the Iranian regime psyche and program.

Good enough for me.

[sherpa]

1 hour ago, Trump_is_Mentally_fit said:

But did they know what they were hitting? First casualty of war, is the truth. Deception happens. Early assessment is this set them back a few months. If that's the case, this was a case of a half measure. 

 

Of course they knew what they were aiming for, and evidently nailed the three spots, by all accounts.

Can't do better than that, and the follow up weapons seconds apart were of extreme importance, and they nailed that as well.

What happens after detonation is structural design vs. physics, and out of the strike groups hands.

[Joe Ferguson forever]

11 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

I don't have a "threshold," and your question is the essence of my point.

This strike had immeasurable consequences throughout the middle east, and many of those have nothing to do with actual strike damage.

The fact that the US was willing to go "feet dry" into Iran and undertake an immensely impressive strike is not lost on other players.

CentCom has been asking to do this for years. Deployed carrier task forces, same thing.

It has always been denied.

 

Beyond that, they not only did it, they delivered extremely accurate weapons completely undetected.

Nothing fired at them. No evidence of any real clue that the Iranians even knew they were there.

That is not lost on other belligerents.

 

It is idiotic to judge the success of that strike based on how long it would take them to dig out, start over, start over in another place etc.

 

Building a nuclear ballistic missile is really hard and leaves tracks. Those tracks are much easier to sniff out now.

Spending the time and resources to build an underground enrichment and production plant was time consuming and expensive, and it is very likely severely damaged, and certainly not functioning. 

One the uranium is enriched, the fissile material needs to be weaponized, ie., hardened and made into something that can be delivered.

Ruin that process and you stop the program.  Evidently Isfahan was that location, and it is largely destroyed.

 

My view is that it is ignorant to judge the success of the strike on how long it takes them to clean up. They are way more vulnerable and they know it.

Think the remaining scientists that the Israelis didn't get are operating the same way?

 

Anyway, when I heard Trump's initial comments I cringed, because I knew how ridiculous it was to make such a claim.

I stated as much a week before this, pointing out that this bunker buster talk as a silver bullet was no guarantee and foolish speculation.

It was the single best option, but you simply can't know with certainty.

Very complicated warhead and fuzing, and never designed to get to the depths of Fordow, and that was well known going into this.

Still, the deliveries were perfect, and I'm certain caused massive damage.

Massive damage to the Iranian regime psyche and program.

Good enough for me.

Accuracy is a poor measure unless we were only attempting to prove capability  results are what matter and those shiould be measured by Irans capabilitiy to develop nukes quickly ( before a nd after the strike. It seems to me the contingency plans you suggest all involve further military action which is far from ideal. If they call for further strikes we’ll know that the first strike was largely unsuccessful. 

Edited 5 hours ago by Joe Ferguson forever

[sherpa]

33 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

Accuracy is a poor measure unless we were only attempting to prove capability  results are what matter and those shiould be measured by Irans capabilitiy to develop nukes quickly ( before a nd after the strike. It seems to me the contingency plans you suggest all involve further military action which is far from ideal. If they call for further strikes we’ll know that the first strike was largely unsuccessful. 

 

You asked for my opinion, and I responded.

I have never asked for yours, and won't.

 

Brilliantly planned and executed strike.

Far reaching consequences making everything that might follow in order to prevent what everyone wants to prevent easier.

Great night.

[muppy]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

 

1A.  The only way to PROVE it is to inspect it.  And personally expect any peace treaty coming out of this war will include an ability for either the US or Israel to inspect the actual bombed facilities (possibly technically through the auspices of a 3rd party like the UN or the IAEA but in either case am expecting that US &/or Israeli boots will be on the ground for that one).

 

1B.  Likely the 60% uranium hexaflouride itself has not been destroyed, but it is also likely under several hundred feet of rock and debris.  Would expect the centrifuges used to purify it likely are destroyed and are many of the Iranian scientists and engineers that oversaw and designed the purification operations.  The only way to guarantee that the Iranians can't use that uranium is if somebody else takes possession of it.  Expect that will be a key demand of the US/Israeli side in any peace agreement.

 

1C.  Forgotten in all this talk of the bombing of the enrichment facilities is that the Israelis also did a number on the Iranians missile building capacity.  Finding themselves back near square 1 on that front is another good thing that likely has come out of this kerfuffle.

 

2.  Are the mullahs still in power?  Then regime change still hasn't happened.  Are they removed / dead?  (Oviously not asked today as they aren't, but hopefully soon.)  If yes, then regime change has happened.

 

3.  No data.  Won't even hazard a guess.

you are officially a PPP Rock Star in my book for answering me with candor and smarts. Gracias. I mean it. This helps me understand a lot better. I often think in common sense terms.  But what occurs and what is or isn't possible  doesnt always make sense to me.\\sincerely muppy

[Joe Ferguson forever]

32 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

You asked for my opinion, and I responded.

I have never asked for yours, and won't.

 

Brilliantly planned and executed strike.

Far reaching consequences making everything that might follow in order to prevent what everyone wants to prevent easier.

Great night.

so 3 month delay is acceptable.  got it.

 

doublespeak

 

Edited 4 hours ago by Joe Ferguson forever

[sherpa]

"so 3 month delay is acceptable.  got it."

 

I never said that, but you can believe what you want.

[Big Blitz]

 

[dgrochester55]

On 6/24/2025 at 7:20 AM, 4th&long said:

What was that you pathetic weak ass bi tch? 

 

Since there is not one positive thing going on in the Democrat party and no clear direction, this is the of rhetoric that the progressive/extreme left side is now reduced to. Their true colors are coming out. This is more like who they really are.

Edited 2 hours ago by dgrochester55

[4th&long]

44 minutes ago, dgrochester55 said:

 

Since there is not one positive thing going on in the Democrat party and no clear direction, this is the of rhetoric that the progressive/extreme left side is now reduced to. Their true colors are coming out. This is more like who they really are.

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha.  You think I'm on the left. What an idiot. 

Edited 1 hour ago by 4th&long

[sherpa]

On 6/24/2025 at 4:12 PM, sherpa said:

 

In the meantime, it seems there has been a Hamas ambush today that killed a number of Israeli soldiers.

Hasn't hit the media yet, but serves as a reminder of reality.   

 

Finally reported tonight.

Seven killed as explosive thrown into a vehicle.