McBean's Drafting vs. Chiefs, Eagles, and 49ers (draft position/impact players?)

[uticaclub]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I don't think we need an elite pass rusher. Just a very good one. Von wasn't an elite guy anymore when we got him. But IMO if he'd stayed healthy we'd have a Lombardi or two right now.

 

What elite pass rushers have the other teams being compared here drafted? Chris Jones came on a trade.

 

All depends on your definition of elite, but generally elite pass rushers go in the top ten, and many years the highest part of it.

 

Some elite guys do go later, no question. But there just aren't many elite pass rushers, period. Much less elite pass rushers drafted later.

A pass rusher won’t matter if we can’t force a 3rd and long. Unless the defensive philosophy has drastically changed, this is all a moot point.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Yeah KC Pre-Spags was getting lit up in the postseason and fired their guy. Then they stopped getting lit up.

 

The Bills moved on from Frazier and they kept getting lit up.

 

Not really true. They got lit up by the Colts in Andy's first year when they blew a huge lead. After that before swapping out Bobby Sutton for Spags the Chiefs played six playoff games and gave up more than 22 just twice at an average of 19.5. Both to Tom Brady and the Patriots - 27 in the 2015 divisional loss and 37 in the 2018 AFCCG OT loss. They were 2-4 in those games mainly because their offense couldn't score. 

 

Their first nine playoff games with Spags as DC they kept teams under 22 just three times and the average points given up ticked up slightly. They really only got better on defense when they started drafting defense early and often. McDuffie, Karlaftis, Bolton, Chenal, Cook... etc. 

Edited 10 hours ago by GunnerBill

[folz]

8 hours ago, eball said:

Why is this thread titled “McBean?”  You know McDermott doesn’t do the scouting or drafting, right?

 

 

I would have gone back only to 2018 (not 2017) and just said "Beane's drafting..." But I was responding to another poster who asked to go back to 2017 (to show the entire tenure of the current regime). Since McDermott was in control of the 2017 draft (with Whaley's scouting), I made the title McBeane (to note that I was aware that Beane was not involved in the 2017 draft). Otherwise the first handful of posts probably would have been people reminding me that Beane wasn't part of the 2017 draft. 🙂

[folz]

15 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

 

Since 2018 (I couldn't go back further with the site I used)

• Every Super Bowl winner but one has been Top 5 DVOA in the regular season (The only exception was Brady and the Patriots in 2018)
• 11 of 14 participants in the Super Bowl since 2018 were Top 5 in DVOA

Good teams are getting to Super Bowls and Winning Super Bowls

 

Buffalo is the best regular season team since 2020 by any measure, but they aren't winning or getting to Super Bowls. Eventually that starts to stick out at the level we have done it with.

• Buffalo has more Top 5 DVOA finishes than any team in football since 2020 with 5 and is in a tie for 5 total with KC dating back to 2018
• Teams with at least 4 top 5 DVOA finishes who have yet to make a Super Bowl include Baltimore and Buffalo
• Teams with at least 3 top 5 DVOA finishes who have yet to make a Super Bowl include Baltimore, Buffalo, New Orleans
• Teams with at least 2 top 5 DVOA finishes who have yet to make a Super Bowl include Baltimore, Buffalo, New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas

We have had prolific success since 2020. Nobody has accomplished what we have as consistently as we have in the regular season. At the same time, nobody has underachieved more in the playoffs. The teams that have also underachieved like Baltimore, New Orleans, Green Bay, and Dallas isn't a good group you want to be associated with.  I don't think any of us look at it as unlucky either.

 

Lamar has given games away. LaFleur has put the Packers in horrible positions. Half the board just got done trying to convince me Sean Payton is an all time playoff hack outside of his SB win. Dallas is the most paper soft team in the game. 

 

So are we more like those teams or are we more like Kansas City, Philadelphia, San Francisco, LA Rams, etc? It seems like people are so sure we are more like the Super Bowl group. But the longer this goes, the more questions will get asked and the more we look like the ones who just won't get it done.

 

 

Good post Mikie. And I know it sounds like an excuse to some, but the one caveat I would add is Kansas City. Let's just say that over the last 6 years we swapped K.C. and San Fran. Put San Francisco in the AFC and move Kansas City to the NFC. Do you think that maybe Buffalo's and Philly's number of Super Bowl appearances and/or SB wins might be different than it is? I mean, how many more SB appearances or rings would Peyton Manning have if not for Tom Brady and the Patriots. 

[Mikie2times]

5 minutes ago, folz said:

 

Good post Mikie. And I know it sounds like an excuse to some, but the one caveat I would add is Kansas City. Let's just say that over the last 6 years we swapped K.C. and San Fran. Put San Francisco in the AFC and move Kansas City to the NFC. Do you think that maybe Buffalo's and Philly's number of Super Bowl appearances and/or SB wins might be different than it is? I mean, how many more SB appearances or rings would Peyton Manning have if not for Tom Brady and the Patriots. 

Thanks man. I have had the discussion before and of course that has merit. Way more so than the gods of random luck in my opinion. I still think something is off with how this team performs in the postseason.

 

Even if we look at some of our wins. 

 

Miami- We trailed midway thru the 3rd before taking our first lead, 27-24 with 5:18 left, ultimately winning 34-31

Pittsburgh- We get ahead 21-0, then let Pittsburgh claw back, it's 24-17 before we finally put the nail in the coffin with 6:27 left in the 4th

Denver- We are up 13-7 late in 3rd quarter, Allen completes an incredible TD pass to Ty Johnson and then we pour it on

 

I get these are playoff teams, but these teams were also led by Skyler Thompson, Mason Rudolph, and Bo Nix (rookie) at home. Does the best team in football (according to DVOA) play with it's food like this? We are always too close to the sun and we get burned when we level up. 

 

Even worse from another view. Since 2020 we have #1 regular season offensive EPA. Now wait for it, the #2 regular season defensive EPA. Which is mind boggling to be honest. We have nearly the best offensive AND defensive units in football in the regular season since 2020. If you look at those Top 5 DVOA teams since 2020 that have had at least 2 or more top 5 finishes:

 

This is how much those offenses improved or regressed in the postseason.  

 

 

This is how much those defenses improved or regressed in the postseason

 

 

What I don't understand at times is why this fan base responds so negatively to any negativity on this subject as it relates to McD, Beane, or even our drafting strategy. This type of data is not Kansas City. It can't possibly be explained by Kansas City nor can it be explained by how the ball bounces. I would venture to say that no team in any 6 year sample meeting this criteria has seen this type of regression in the playoffs on either side of the ball in NFL history. The fan base has a right to call it out and doing so does not make you a negative fan (not saying you're saying that, but many here do). 

[GunnerBill]

54 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Thanks man. I have had the discussion before and of course that has merit. Way more so than the gods of random luck in my opinion. I still think something is off with how this team performs in the postseason.

 

Even if we look at some of our wins. 

 

Miami- We trailed midway thru the 3rd before taking our first lead, 27-24 with 5:18 left, ultimately winning 34-31

Pittsburgh- We get ahead 21-0, then let Pittsburgh claw back, it's 24-17 before we finally put the nail in the coffin with 6:27 left in the 4th

Denver- We are up 13-7 late in 3rd quarter, Allen completes an incredible TD pass to Ty Johnson and then we pour it on

 

I get these are playoff teams, but these teams were also led by Skyler Thompson, Mason Rudolph, and Bo Nix (rookie) at home. Does the best team in football (according to DVOA) play with it's food like this? We are always too close to the sun and we get burned when we level up. 

 

Even worse from another view. Since 2020 we have #1 regular season offensive EPA. Now wait for it, the #2 regular season defensive EPA. Which is mind boggling to be honest. We have nearly the best offensive AND defensive units in football in the regular season since 2020. If you look at those Top 5 DVOA teams since 2020 that have had at least 2 or more top 5 finishes:

 

This is how much those offenses improved or regressed in the postseason.  

 

 

This is how much those defenses improved or regressed in the postseason

 

 

What I don't understand at times is why this fan base responds so negatively to any negativity on this subject as it relates to McD, Beane, or even our drafting strategy. This type of data is not Kansas City. It can't possibly be explained by Kansas City nor can it be explained by how the ball bounces. I would venture to say that no team in any 6 year sample meeting this criteria has seen this type of regression in the playoffs on either side of the ball in NFL history. The fan base has a right to call it out and doing so does not make you a negative fan (not saying you're saying that, but many here do). 

 

I do think it is part luck. It is part Kansas City. But it is also part the playoffs and ultimately winning the Superbowl is about elite difference makers. I have held that view since long before the Bills were contenders. You normally need at least 4 elite guys to win a Superbowl. The Bills have never had more than 2 on the field together in the playoffs since that first AFCCG (when they had Josh, Diggs and Tre). And I think in those big moments it shows up. And then obviously there is one major coaching failure in there too in 2021.

 

It's a combination of all that.

 

EDIT: my general view is that the regular season is about how many weaknesses you have. The teams with fewest make the post season. Then the post season is about your strenghts much more.

Edited 4 hours ago by GunnerBill

[Mikie2times]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I do think it is part luck. It is part Kansas City. But it is also part the playoffs and ultimately winning the Superbowl is about elite difference makers. I have held that view since long before the Bills were contenders. You normally need at least 4 elite guys to win a Superbowl. The Bills have never had more than 2 on the field together in the playoffs since that first AFCCG (when they had Josh, Diggs and Tre). And I think in those big moments it shows up. And then obviously there is one major coaching failure in there too in 2021.

 

It's a combination of all that.

 

EDIT: my general view is that the regular season is about how many weaknesses you have. The teams with fewest make the post season. Then the post season is about your strenghts much more.

It can be parts of many things and likely is, this notion that teams luck into a Super Bowl is flawed. It's nearly always among the leagues best teams winning. Still, I don't think we have ever seen a regression so severe in the modern history of this game as we have seen from Buffalo, regular season to postseason since 2020. So it seems like a stretch to say luck, KC, or even injuries. Maybe all three? Other teams have also failed to overtake the Chiefs, but statistically they have not regressed in such a spectacular way. Perhaps your point at the end is the case or at least part of it. Either way, with this defensive collapses and the offenses failing to win in clutch moments, it's really hard to see the playoff light. Even the more recent narrative of just needing a defensive talent infusion is accurate, but we have had very high performing defenses in the past and that's what this data is made from. So does that get us over the hump? 

Edited 3 hours ago by Mikie2times

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

It can be parts of many things and likely is, this notion that teams luck into a Super Bowl is flawed. It's nearly always among the leagues best teams winning. Still, I don't think we have ever seen a regression so severe in the modern history of this game as we have seen from Buffalo, regular season to postseason since 2020. So it seems like a stretch to say luck, KC, or even injuries. Maybe all three? Other teams have also failed to overtake the Chiefs, but statistically they have not regressed in such a spectacular way. Perhaps your point at the end is the case or at least part of it. Either way, with this defensive collapses and the offenses failing to win in clutch moments, it's really hard to see the playoff light. Even the more recent narrative of just needing a defensive talent infusion is accurate, but we have had very high performing defenses in the past and that's what this data is made from. So does that get us over the hump? 

 

No teams don't luck into the Superbowl. But only one of the top 10 DVOA teams on your list over the period actually won the Superbowl (if I counted right). And I think that does reflect that isn't as straightforward as the best performing regular season teams by the advanced analytics go on and win Superbowls. Actually the old fashioned ranking system.... the team with the #1 seed and most wins have won more Superbowls over that period. I see Baltimore and Buffalo as very similar. More dominant regular season teams than KC in many ways. But don't find the ways to get it done in the post season.

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Even the more recent narrative of just need a defensive talent infusion is accurate, but we have had very high performing defenses in the past and that's what this data is made from.  

 

This season should give us the final answer on the talent vs coaching argument as it pertains to playoff defense. No we don't have all-pros at every level of the defense, but throughout this offseason we have spent a ton of resources on talented players that are scheme fits, we've brought in new defensive coaches with different schematic backgrounds, and we've extended several defensive players presumably with the coaching staff's blessing. So they have to make this group work. There can't be any excuses. If we once again watch KC's offense move up and down the field at will in January that has to be the signal that no amount of investment is ever going to be enough for McDermott's defense to get it done.

 

With all of that being said, I'm not predicting one way or another if the investments will lead to a different result. I'm hopeful that it will. Mostly I'm glad the excuses are off the table. Time to just get it done.

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No teams don't luck into the Superbowl. But only one of the top 10 DVOA teams on your list over the period actually won the Superbowl (if I counted right). And I think that does reflect that isn't as straightforward as the best performing regular season teams by the advanced analytics go on and win Superbowls. Actually the old fashioned ranking system.... the team with the #1 seed and most wins have won more Superbowls over that period. I see Baltimore and Buffalo as very similar. More dominant regular season teams than KC in many ways. But don't find the ways to get it done in the post season.

I don't think being #1 means you will finish #1. Being among the best shows that pretty clearly. Which Buffalo has consistently done more so than anybody since 2020. We do have similarities to Baltimore, but for them the answer is pretty clear. Lamar hasn't performed. With Buffalo, the regression is far worse and as I said, likely unprecedented in the time frame this type of data is available in. We are 50% worse than Dallas in our defensive regression and Dallas is 100% worse than the next closest team.  The answers are far more complicated for us and we have a completely divided fan base that ranges from calling people who focus on this haters, negative fans, all this other crap. To fans that don't really acknowledge the severity of this and lean into the regular season. To me it's completely reasonable to have either take but completely unreasonable to think either are being unreasonable.  

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This season should give us the final answer on the talent vs coaching argument as it pertains to playoff defense. No we don't have all-pros at every level of the defense, but throughout this offseason we have spent a ton of resources on talented players that are scheme fits, we've brought in new defensive coaches with different schematic backgrounds, and we've extended several defensive players presumably with the coaching staff's blessing. So they have to make this group work. There can't be any excuses. If we once again watch KC's offense move up and down the field at will in January that has to be the signal that no amount of investment is ever going to be enough for McDermott's defense to get it done.

 

With all of that being said, I'm not predicting one way or another if the investments will lead to a different result. I'm hopeful that it will. Mostly I'm glad the excuses are off the table. Time to just get it done.

I'm with you 100% on all of this

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I don't think being #1 means you will finish #1. Being among the best shows that pretty clearly. Which Buffalo has consistently done more so than anybody since 2020. We do have similarities to Baltimore, but for them the answer is pretty clear. Lamar hasn't performed. With Buffalo, the regression is far worse and as I said, likely unprecedented in the time frame this type of data is available in. We are 50% worse than Dallas in our defensive regression and Dallas is 100% worse than the next closest team.  The answers are far more complicated for us and we have a completely divided fan base that ranges from calling people who focus on this haters, negative fans, all this other crap. To fans that don't really acknowledge the severity of this and lean into the regular season. To me it's completely reasonable to have either take but completely unreasonable to think either are being unreasonable.  

I'm with you 100% on all of this

 

I think the Lamar narrative is kinda wrong though. I think there is a lot more to it in Baltimore too.

[MasterStrategist]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This season should give us the final answer on the talent vs coaching argument as it pertains to playoff defense. No we don't have all-pros at every level of the defense, but throughout this offseason we have spent a ton of resources on talented players that are scheme fits, we've brought in new defensive coaches with different schematic backgrounds, and we've extended several defensive players presumably with the coaching staff's blessing. So they have to make this group work. There can't be any excuses. If we once again watch KC's offense move up and down the field at will in January that has to be the signal that no amount of investment is ever going to be enough for McDermott's defense to get it done.

 

With all of that being said, I'm not predicting one way or another if the investments will lead to a different result. I'm hopeful that it will. Mostly I'm glad the excuses are off the table. Time to just get it done.

First need to be relatively healthy, but I still put alot of issues on talent 1st, coaching 2nd.

 

We have a LOT of ex players sitting on no team right now: Von,Rasul, Phillips, Jefferson- then traded a bust in Elam, and signed Hamlin back for peanuts.  All these guys played a key role in the Chiefs game/snaps.

 

Im hopeful Beane made the right decisions/investments this year on defense. 

 

But its hard to advance to the Super Bowl, without some combination of:

1. Elite DLine play/player

2. Elite secondary OR

3. Combination of a very good Dline and secondary

 

Closest we were to any of above, was 2020- with a great secondary.  Injuries, poor personell decisions, and poor game mgt have contributed-be nice if we actually can find #3 above this year. 

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the Lamar narrative is kinda wrong though. I think there is a lot more to it in Baltimore too.

He has 6 total TD's and 10 turnovers in 5 playoff losses. His pick six and two turnovers certainly cost them dearly vs us. He might not be the only thing, but the defense has held up as well as any outside of the Eagles from the regular season to the playoffs. It sure seems like a big part is on him. 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

He has 6 total TD's and 10 turnovers in 5 playoff losses. His pick six and two turnovers certainly cost them dearly vs us. He might not be the only thing, but the defense has held up as well as any outside of the Eagles from the regular season to the playoffs. It sure seems like a big part is on him. 

 

The first two playoff losses - Chargers and Titans was on him. He just wasn't up to it. But he has played pretty well since. I know he had a bad INT and a bad fumble vs us in January but he was also the reason they had a chance to win at the end. I don't put the KC game the previous year on him either. That was on the OC who called an atrocious game. He is over 70% passing in 3 of his last 4 playoff games.

Edited 3 hours ago by GunnerBill

[HappyDays]

32 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

First need to be relatively healthy, but I still put alot of issues on talent 1st, coaching 2nd.

 

We'll find out soon enough. I'm not asking us to do what Philly just did. If KC punts 3 times against us that will immediately go down as our best playoff performance against them. I think 4+ punts and less than 27 points should be a bare minimum baseline expectation for a defense that just invested a ton of salary and draft picks, and has a very experienced defensive head coach facing what has basically become a divisional opponent.

 

Honestly looking at just the investments spent the 2025 Bills really SHOULD be led by the defense first. We shouldn't need to score 30+ PPG to go 13-3 like we did last year. KC just went 15-1 scoring 24 PPG... That is seemingly the type of team McDermott and Beane want to build. So go prove that their strategy can work, or else what are we doing here?

[billsfan714]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This season should give us the final answer on the talent vs coaching argument as it pertains to playoff defense. No we don't have all-pros at every level of the defense, but throughout this offseason we have spent a ton of resources on talented players that are scheme fits, we've brought in new defensive coaches with different schematic backgrounds, and we've extended several defensive players presumably with the coaching staff's blessing. So they have to make this group work. There can't be any excuses. If we once again watch KC's offense move up and down the field at will in January that has to be the signal that no amount of investment is ever going to be enough for McDermott's defense to get it done.

 

With all of that being said, I'm not predicting one way or another if the investments will lead to a different result. I'm hopeful that it will. Mostly I'm glad the excuses are off the table. Time to just get it done.

If we don't get it done again this year, I can guarantee there will be excuses on this board.  Prime example will be we started a rookie, had rookies playing--it will take time for them to learn, player X got injured, etc.

[folz]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

Even worse from another view. Since 2020 we have #1 regular season offensive EPA. Now wait for it, the #2 regular season defensive EPA. Which is mind boggling to be honest. We have nearly the best offensive AND defensive units in football in the regular season since 2020. If you look at those Top 5 DVOA teams since 2020 that have had at least 2 or more top 5 finishes:

 

7 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I don't think being #1 means you will finish #1. Being among the best shows that pretty clearly. Which Buffalo has consistently done more so than anybody since 2020. We do have similarities to Baltimore, but for them the answer is pretty clear. Lamar hasn't performed. With Buffalo, the regression is far worse and as I said, likely unprecedented in the time frame this type of data is available in. We are 50% worse than Dallas in our defensive regression and Dallas is 100% worse than the next closest team.  The answers are far more complicated for us and we have a completely divided fan base that ranges from calling people who focus on this haters, negative fans, all this other crap. To fans that don't really acknowledge the severity of this and lean into the regular season. To me it's completely reasonable to have either take but completely unreasonable to think either are being unreasonable.  

 

Yes, since 2020, I think we can honestly say that the Bills have probably been the best overall NFL team in the regular season. Beyond the EPAs you noted above, the Bills have also scored the most points (#1), while surrendering the fewest points (#1). We are #3 in offensive yards (just 27 yards behind #2 SF and 305 yards behind #1 KC, over 5 years). We are #2 in yards allowed by defense (only 9 yards behind #1 SF, over 5 years). We are #1 in defensive turnovers (by a good margin) and #2 in turnover differential (only 4 behind #1 Pittsburgh). Of course, we are #2 in wins. We have played 1 less game than K.C. and they have 5 more wins than us over those 5 years (but, at least as far as the regular season is concerned, we have the head-to-head with K.C. at 4-1---which makes the playoff losses seem even stranger). Bills are #2 in win percentage at .735 (KC is #1 at .786; the next closest team is Green Bay at #3 with .634, a significant drop).

 

What does that all mean? Well, I think all Bills fans should be in agreement that the playoffs is obviously where the problem is. But what that problem is we can't seem to agree on. I agree with Gunner to an extent about elite players. If we had even one or two more game changers that could make a play in crunch time, that would go  a long way. So do we blame drafting/free agent acquisitions for that? A lot of people will put it on coaching (bad decisions, getting outcoached, bad defensive schemes). Some will put it on overall talent, or lack of talent at certain positions (WR, for example). Many agree it is the defense that has let us down, but is that talent, coaching, scheme? 

 

I know some don't, but I personally give the team a mulligan for the 2022 playoffs. Not sure how some people act like the whole Damar situation didn't or shouldn't have affected that team. So, that is the Miami game you mentioned and the Cincy game.

 

And beyond having KC in front of us and the Damar incident in 2022, there is also the injury issue. The Bills have not been their healthiest (at their best), particularly on defense, for at least 3-4 of those 5 seasons. 2020: Beasley playing on a broken ankle, Diggs playing through a pretty bad knee injury. 2022/2023 our defenses were decimated with injuries. Again, some will say those are excuses, but that is also a factor in the under-performance by the defense in the playoffs, defenses will tend to underperform when they are missing a number of starters. I guess you could knock Beane for depth, but how many teams are going to be as good with a certain number of back-ups in. That's why they are back-ups. And then there is the Chiefs again. One of the best offenses in the last 20 years (for most of their run)---we have faced them 4 times in the playoffs. I would venture to guess if other playoff teams had to face the Chiefs in 4 of their playoff games, their defensive stats would look a lot worse than playing say some 9-8 team in the Wild Card round (i.e., a significant drop from their regular season stats). And lastly, you can't totally discount luck and the NFL/referees either (whether it be injuries, bad bounces of the ball, bad calls, etc.).

 

So, as you and others have noted, it is so many things plied into one that it is hard to put our fingers on just one or two things. But I agree whole-heartedly with your statement that I highlighted in purple. I mean, we are all just fans trying to figure out and fix the problem (from our armchair GM positions). Of course there will be people on the extremes of any discussion. But, where I think the ultimate disconnection is is between those who think since we haven't gotten it done in the playoffs, this regime never will and we should start looking for a change; while others look at the regular season success, and the good playoff games, and the circumstances of each season, and the fact that we've been soooo close in the games with the Chiefs, so they want to stay the course with McBeane.  

 

Hopefully, with the defensive additions, and the fact that we are moving into our new stadium next year and Josh just won the MVP, we won't need to have this conversation again next offseason. 🤞 Go Bills!

 

 

[Randon Note: We are 7-5 in the playoffs since 2020. Interesting to note, playoff points for = 337; playoff points against = 267. So, we have outscored our opponents by 70 points or 6 points per game on average, despite losing 5 of those games.]

 

 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, folz said:

 

 

Yes, since 2020, I think we can honestly say that the Bills have probably been the best overall NFL team in the regular season. Beyond the EPAs you noted above, the Bills have also scored the most points (#1), while surrendering the fewest points (#1). We are #3 in offensive yards (just 27 yards behind #2 SF and 305 yards behind #1 KC, over 5 years). We are #2 in yards allowed by defense (only 9 yards behind #1 SF, over 5 years). We are #1 in defensive turnovers (by a good margin) and #2 in turnover differential (only 4 behind #1 Pittsburgh). Of course, we are #2 in wins. We have played 1 less game than K.C. and they have 5 more wins than us over those 5 years (but, at least as far as the regular season is concerned, we have the head-to-head with K.C. at 4-1---which makes the playoff losses seem even stranger). Bills are #2 in win percentage at .735 (KC is #1 at .786; the next closest team is Green Bay at #3 with .634, a significant drop).

 

What does that all mean? Well, I think all Bills fans should be in agreement that the playoffs is obviously where the problem is. But what that problem is we can't seem to agree on. I agree with Gunner to an extent about elite players. If we had even one or two more game changers that could make a play in crunch time, that would go  a long way. So do we blame drafting/free agent acquisitions for that? A lot of people will put it on coaching (bad decisions, getting outcoached, bad defensive schemes). Some will put it on overall talent, or lack of talent at certain positions (WR, for example). Many agree it is the defense that has let us down, but is that talent, coaching, scheme? 

 

I know some don't, but I personally give the team a mulligan for the 2022 playoffs. Not sure how some people act like the whole Damar situation didn't or shouldn't have affected that team. So, that is the Miami game you mentioned and the Cincy game.

 

And beyond having KC in front of us and the Damar incident in 2022, there is also the injury issue. The Bills have not been their healthiest (at their best), particularly on defense, for at least 3-4 of those 5 seasons. 2020: Beasley playing on a broken ankle, Diggs playing through a pretty bad knee injury. 2022/2023 our defenses were decimated with injuries. Again, some will say those are excuses, but that is also a factor in the under-performance by the defense in the playoffs, defenses will tend to underperform when they are missing a number of starters. I guess you could knock Beane for depth, but how many teams are going to be as good with a certain number of back-ups in. That's why they are back-ups. And then there is the Chiefs again. One of the best offenses in the last 20 years (for most of their run)---we have faced them 4 times in the playoffs. I would venture to guess if other playoff teams had to face the Chiefs in 4 of their playoff games, their defensive stats would look a lot worse than playing say some 9-8 team in the Wild Card round (i.e., a significant drop from their regular season stats). And lastly, you can't totally discount luck and the NFL/referees either (whether it be injuries, bad bounces of the ball, bad calls, etc.).

 

So, as you and others have noted, it is so many things plied into one that it is hard to put our fingers on just one or two things. But I agree whole-heartedly with your statement that I highlighted in purple. I mean, we are all just fans trying to figure out and fix the problem (from our armchair GM positions). Of course there will be people on the extremes of any discussion. But, where I think the ultimate disconnection is is between those who think since we haven't gotten it done in the playoffs, this regime never will and we should start looking for a change; while others look at the regular season success, and the good playoff games, and the circumstances of each season, and the fact that we've been soooo close in the games with the Chiefs, so they want to stay the course with McBeane.  

 

Hopefully, with the defensive additions, and the fact that we are moving into our new stadium next year and Josh just won the MVP, we won't need to have this conversation again next offseason. 🤞 Go Bills!

 

 

[Randon Note: We are 7-5 in the playoffs since 2020. Interesting to note, playoff points for = 337; playoff points against = 267. So, we have outscored our opponents by 70 points or 6 points per game on average, despite losing 5 of those games.]

 

 

 

 

You data nerd 🤣 great post

[folz]

9 minutes ago, billsfan714 said:

If we don't get it done again this year, I can guarantee there will be excuses on this board.  Prime example will be we started a rookie, had rookies playing--it will take time for them to learn, player X got injured, etc.

 

That will depend on if there are legitimate excuses or not. You call them excuses, I call them factors and circumstances.

 

I mean, yeah, if we get to the playoffs and are missing 5 defensive starters, while the other team is healthy or say only missing one guy. Yeah, that is a factor. If Josh were to miss a playoff game and we lose, yeah, that is a factor. If the referees make a horrible call on a game changing play, or multiple bad calls that all go against Buffalo, yeah, that is a factor. Rookies are not excuses (outside of at QB). This team brings them along slowly and won't have them out there if they aren't performing well. But, yeah, I really hope there is nothing to point at this year in that vein too. 

[MasterStrategist]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

We'll find out soon enough. I'm not asking us to do what Philly just did. If KC punts 3 times against us that will immediately go down as our best playoff performance against them. I think 4+ punts and less than 27 points should be a bare minimum baseline expectation for a defense that just invested a ton of salary and draft picks, and has a very experienced defensive head coach facing what has basically become a divisional opponent.

 

Honestly looking at just the investments spent the 2025 Bills really SHOULD be led by the defense first. We shouldn't need to score 30+ PPG to go 13-3 like we did last year. KC just went 15-1 scoring 24 PPG... That is seemingly the type of team McDermott and Beane want to build. So go prove that their strategy can work, or else what are we doing here?

100%.   Our investments need to pay off this time....plain and simple.  Lots of capital thrown at dline and secondary past 2 offseasons, between draft and FA.  That's a wise decision IMO, but the coaches/players need to make this pay off when it counts