Wide Receiver Train Full Speed Ahead- CHOO CHOO!

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Interestingly enough, I changed it in statmuse and the Bills don’t appear at 22.

 

So I think the reality is they may be far lower.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-highest-ppg-by-year

 

That is interesting, and all I am going on is what its kicking out when I filtered by total points and then PPG.  It has us as 16th most points and 22nd by PPG.  But seems Statmuse isn't doing something consistently if its giving a different data set under a different prompt.  

 

Either way...16th most points all time, and what really matters is how that compares to teams around us currently who are all playing the same number of games we are and not scoring more points than us.  I mean only 2 teams ahead of us since 2020, and one was the Lions this year.  Keep in mind, Bills also tied the NFL record for most wins by 20+ in 2024 where the offense took the foot off the gas for entire quarters and some halves, plus Josh Allen sat week 17.  

 

And my original points/facts were we were the highest scoring AFC team both in reg season and postseason both in PPG and Points and 16th most points all time...offense is not why we didn't make it out of the AFC and into the SB.

[BADOLBILZ]

23 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Interestingly enough, I changed it in statmuse and the Bills don’t appear at 22.

 

So I think the reality is they may be far lower.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-highest-ppg-by-year

 

 

This data says the 2024 team was 33rd all time........in the 5th highest scoring per game season since the merger.

 

https://mcubed.net/nfl/ptmpfpg.shtml

 

Says the 2020 team was 29th........in the highest scoring season since the merger.

 

And the 1975 Bills team is 50th.

 

The 1975 team is actually the highest scoring relative to the league that year with 9.4 points above league average.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/scoring.htm

 

 

 

Edited 20 hours ago by BADOLBILZ

[BADOLBILZ]

17 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

And my original points/facts were we were the highest scoring AFC team both in reg season and postseason both in PPG and Points and 16th most points all time...

 

 

Dude you literally said the "16th greatest offense in NFL history" and are trying to lie now.

 

Like I said.......the hyperbole is not necessary.

 

They've had 2 great scoring seasons and 2 great points allowed seasons since 2020.

 

They simply haven't been good enough on either side of the ball when it counts.

[Doc Brown]

41 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Interestingly enough, I changed it in statmuse and the Bills don’t appear at 22.

 

So I think the reality is they may be far lower.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-highest-ppg-by-year

If you put "most points scored by a nfl team in a season" and then click on ppg tab you'll get the Bills at #22 because they simply rearrange the teams on that page.  That number is wrong.

 

If you put in "highest ppg in a single season nfl" then the Bills aren't in the top 25 so I have no clue where they rank.

 

We're not the 16th best offense of all time.  We were 10th in yards.  We had the best starting field position in the NFL this year and were #3 in red zone offense so it makes sense that we finished 2nd in the league in ppg.  

[LEBills]

9 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

It's points scored and we're 22nd all time in points per game all time.  That extra 17th game put us at 16th all time technically.  We also had the best starting field position in the league thanks to defensive turnovers and were only 10th in yards.  To call us the 16th best all time is a huge stretch.  We also were top 5 in red zone offense too.

Yea that turnover differential really masked a lot of problems. In the Bills Ravens game pre game thread I did a preview of the game. My conclusion was that the Ravens were going to be a really difficult game to win because they were better on offense and defense. The one area that we had a stark advantage was we created a lot of turnovers and the Ravens didn’t and gave up a good amount of turnovers. Voila we won because of timely turnovers.

 

We are always a good turnover team under McDermott but we won’t be as good as 2024 in 2025. Hopefully we added enough talent this off-season to balance that the likely regression to the mean.

[Doc Brown]

Just now, LEBills said:

Yea that turnover differential really masked a lot of problems. In the Bills Ravens game pre game thread I did a preview of the game. My conclusion was that the Ravens were going to be a really difficult game to win because they were better on offense and defense. The one area that we had a stark advantage was we created a lot of turnovers and the Ravens didn’t and gave up a good amount of turnovers. Voila we won because of timely turnovers.

 

We are always a good turnover team under McDermott but we won’t be as good as 2024 in 2025. Hopefully we added enough talent this off-season to balance that the likely regression to the mean.

I deleted that post because I gave incorrect information.  I'm not sure where we are at ppg.  Regardless, what's interesting about last year is the change in kickoff rules where a touchback gave you the 30.  That really increases the likelihood of scoring more than you'd think.  Let's say you gain 30 yards on a drive and go to the opponents 40.  Odds are pry more than 50% you're either going to go for it or kick the field goal in this situation.  If the ball was at the opponents 45 you're pry going to punt in most situations.  Since they went to 17 games last year was the most points scored across the league overall. 

[LEBills]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

I deleted that post because I gave incorrect information.  I'm not sure where we are at ppg.  Regardless, what's interesting about last year is the change in kickoff rules where a touchback gave you the 30.  That really increases the likelihood of scoring more than you'd think.  Let's say you gain 30 yards on a drive and go to the opponents 40.  Odds are pry more than 50% you're either going to go for it or kick the field goal in this situation.  If the ball was at the opponents 45 you're pry going to punt in most situations.  Since they went to 17 games last year was the most points scored across the league overall. 

Yea it will be interesting to see how the new rule affects what teams do. One of the podcasts I listen to (can’t remember which one) talked about the 30 yard line start and, like how you outlined it, how it supercharged offenses. One other thing they added is that the teams with the best QBs were the teams that benefitted the most from it. Which makes sense, feels like Josh, Mahomes, etc can gain 30 yards in their sleep most games.

[Alphadawg7]

32 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Dude you literally said the "16th greatest offense in NFL history" and are trying to lie now.

 

Like I said.......the hyperbole is not necessary.

 

They've had 2 great scoring seasons and 2 great points allowed seasons since 2020.

 

They simply haven't been good enough on either side of the ball when it counts.

 

16th most points all time...that is the 16th greatest offense in NFL history in my book...Which is both subjective and an opinion, but not even remotely close to a lie.  You can disagree with it and have a different opinion of the offenses historical place...but ease up on the lying accusations when this convo started because you couldn't read the post correctly

 

Edited 19 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[Doc Brown]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

16th most points all time...that is the 16th greatest offense in NFL history in my book...That is an opinion not a lie.  You can disagree with it and have a different opinion of the offenses historical place...but ease up on the lying accusations when this convo started because you couldn't read the post correctly and missed where I very specifically stated AFC that then triggered your quest to find something else to be right about.  The 2024 offense was historically great 

That's like saying Eric Dickerson's 2,105 yard season in 16 games was more impressive than OJ Simpson's 2,003 yard season in 14 games.

Edited 19 hours ago by Doc Brown

[BADOLBILZ]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

16th most points all time...that is the 16th greatest offense in NFL history in my book...Which is both subjective and an opinion, but not even remotely close to a lie.  You can disagree with it and have a different opinion of the offenses historical place...but ease up on the lying accusations when this convo started because you couldn't read the post correctly

 

 

 

You said one thing.........said that you said another thing altogether because it didn't track........and now you are trying to meld them together in a form that doesn't account for the difference in games played in the last 4 seasons compared to the 16 and 14 game seasons post merger.

 

It's comically shystie and further undermines your greatly exaggerated takes.

 

3 of the top 5 scoring seasons(per game) since the merger have been since 2020.   The Bills have ranked very near the top in scoring in 2 of those years.   They had a great 8 game run.   If they hadn't struggled in Baltimore, Houston and NY because of bad WR play they might have been closer to the Lions.       And those defense's weren't even playing that well at the time.   Baltimore was near the bottom in pass defense at the time.

 

Receiving talent on offense and pass rushers on defense have been the biggest shortcomings.  It's just funny that when the defense was at the top of the league they were throwing the kitchen sink at pass rush but when the offense has the same issue.........high rank but a clear weakness........they aren't doing the same.

 

[Alphadawg7]

17 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

That's like saying Eric Dickerson's 2,105 yard season in 16 games was more impressive than OJ Simpson's 2,003 yard season in 14 games.

 

Except its not...and who cares, this is a subjective opinion.  

 

The point was, remains, and still is what I already said.  Bills scored the most points in the AFC both in regular season and the post season...yet we did NOT emerge from the AFC.  Meanwhile...we did give up 32 points to a team that did not score 30 the entire year and was down 34-0 at one point in their very next game.  

 

But please...lets keep carrying on splitting hairs about where the 16th highest scoring offense in NFL history subjectively falls on the all time greatest list as if that matters at all in relation the original point.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Except its not...and who cares, this is a subjective opinion.  

 

The point was, remains, and still is what I already said.  Bills scored the most points in the AFC both in regular season and the post season...yet we did NOT emerge from the AFC.  Meanwhile...we did give up 32 points to a team that did not score 30 the entire year and was down 34-0 at one point in their very next game.  

 

But please...lets keep carrying on splitting hairs about where the 16th highest scoring offense in NFL history subjectively falls on the all time greatest list as if that matters at all in relation the original point.

 

 

It matters because when put in context.........they scored the 33rd all-time most points per game in the 5th highest scoring year ever........what that tells you is that it was NOT a historic offensive season.    Not even the Bills best offense ever when you consider the point differential versus league average.  That was the 1975 Bills.

 

Your point about the Bills scoring the most points in the AFC playoffs doesn't account for the fact that they were the only team that played 3 games.   I mean you can't even pick a lane.

 

And after insisting your stats....err "facts".......were definitive proof that poor defense deserves all the blame for the team not advancing to a SB then you suddenly are asking for subjectivity on your facts. 😂

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It matters because when put in context.........they scored the 33rd all-time most points per game in the 5th highest scoring year ever........what that tells you is that it was NOT a historic offensive season.    Not even the Bills best offense ever when you consider the point differential versus league average.  That was the 1975 Bills.

 

16th most points ever...33rd highest PPG (takes games played out of the equation) is historically great...its the literal definition of that.  
 

You want to disagree then that’s your right.  But it doesn’t change the fact they are both 2 historically great numbers.

 

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Your point about the Bills scoring the most points in the AFC playoffs doesn't account for the fact that they were the only team that played 3 games.   I mean you can't even pick a lane.

 

Wrong again lol.  Bills had BOTH the most points AND the highest PPG in the AFC Playoffs.  

 

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

And after insisting your stats....err "facts".......were definitive proof that poor defense deserves all the blame for the team not advancing to a SB then you suddenly are asking for subjectivity on your facts. 😂

 

Everything I said was a fact.  You took one subjective line about the facts and made it the entirety of facts while ignoring the long list of actual facts I listed...and why...because your read the facts wrong in the first place that started this initial convo with your initial incorrect reply where you missed the fact I literally said in the AFC.  It’s your typical muddy the water schtick to mask when you make mistakes like you did earlier.  

 

This has run its course ✌️

 

Edited 13 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[artmalibu]

What draft capital would it have taken to draft 2 WRs that are better than the 2 free agents that are singed?

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, LEBills said:

Yea that turnover differential really masked a lot of problems. In the Bills Ravens game pre game thread I did a preview of the game. My conclusion was that the Ravens were going to be a really difficult game to win because they were better on offense and defense. The one area that we had a stark advantage was we created a lot of turnovers and the Ravens didn’t and gave up a good amount of turnovers. Voila we won because of timely turnovers.

 

We are always a good turnover team under McDermott but we won’t be as good as 2024 in 2025. Hopefully we added enough talent this off-season to balance that the likely regression to the mean.

One of the most amazing stats and why you really have to dig deep to make the argument that Josh deserved MVP over Lamar (who was also awesome last season) imo was that through the first 16 games Josh only took 15 sacks which has been done only 17 times in NFL history through 16 games.  The first time since 2009.

 

Even more impressive is they had the fewest combined turnovers and sacks through a team's first 16 games ever with 22.  The next closest was the Titans in 2009 with 29.  To me that's a QB stat, a play caller stat, a fundamental coaching stat, and an offensive line stat.   Josh only being sacked 8.2% of the time when pressured is just stupidly efficient.

 

You can't call last year's offense historic when you finish 10th in yards last season but you can when it comes to avoiding negative plays.

Edited 13 hours ago by Doc Brown

[LEBills]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

One of the most amazing stats and why you really have to dig deep to make the argument that Josh deserved MVP over Lamar (who was also awesome last season) imo was that through the first 16 games Josh only took 15 sacks which has been done only 17 times in NFL history through 16 games.  The first time since 2009.

 

Even more impressive is they had the fewest combined turnovers and sacks through a team's first 16 games ever with 22.  The next closest was the Titans in 2009 with 29.  To me that's a QB stat, a play caller stat, a fundamental coaching stat, and an offensive line stat.   Josh only being sacked 8.2% of the time when pressured is just stupidly efficient.

 

You can't call last year's offense historic when you finish 10th in yards last season but you can when it comes to avoiding negative plays.

Yea what they accomplished last year was historic and will be very hard to replicate. I think Josh in Brady’s system has turned the corner on negative plays and will limit a lot of mistakes going forward, but that rate and the rate with which we got turnovers will regress from the historic levels. 
 

That’s why I wish we had started adding to the WR room more this year and past years. Keon is the only WR Beane has drafted in the first three rounds. Back in 2021 when he signed Emmanuel Sanders, Beane stated he did it because he didn’t want to lose their fastball. But since that statement, we did. When the Diggs relationship soured and he was traded, which Beane obviously wasn’t expecting, there was only one WR left that had caught a pass from Josh (Shakir)! 
 

The Josh/Brady/Oline/James Cook combination made it work to most peoples’ surprise. And will probably be formidable again this year. But Josh’s time to throw and scramble rate were both the highest they have been since 2020 which to me is a stat that reflects pass catchers not getting quick separation. Combine that with the likely regression of negative plays and I worry that the offensive highs we saw last year are going to be much harder to match than people expect. The best way to counteract that will be to add talent to WR so Josh has good targets to throw to and the passing game becomes more explosive. Maybe Palmer and Moore improve that talent level, I believe it is going to be pretty marginal at best. In the end, this is where the WR train argument comes from, bring back the occasional fast ball to pair with the methodical offense we have built.

[NewEra]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

You took one subjective line about the facts and made it the entirety of facts while ignoring the long list of actual facts I listed...and why...because your read the facts wrong in the first place that started this initial convo with your initial incorrect reply where you missed the fact I literally said in the AFC.  It’s your typical muddy the water schtick to mask when you make mistakes like you did earlier.  

 

This has run its course ✌️

 

[Mikey152]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

Yea what they accomplished last year was historic and will be very hard to replicate. I think Josh in Brady’s system has turned the corner on negative plays and will limit a lot of mistakes going forward, but that rate and the rate with which we got turnovers will regress from the historic levels. 
 

That’s why I wish we had started adding to the WR room more this year and past years. Keon is the only WR Beane has drafted in the first three rounds. Back in 2021 when he signed Emmanuel Sanders, Beane stated he did it because he didn’t want to lose their fastball. But since that statement, we did. When the Diggs relationship soured and he was traded, which Beane obviously wasn’t expecting, there was only one WR left that had caught a pass from Josh (Shakir)! 
 

The Josh/Brady/Oline/James Cook combination made it work to most peoples’ surprise. And will probably be formidable again this year. But Josh’s time to throw and scramble rate were both the highest they have been since 2020 which to me is a stat that reflects pass catchers not getting quick separation. Combine that with the likely regression of negative plays and I worry that the offensive highs we saw last year are going to be much harder to match than people expect. The best way to counteract that will be to add talent to WR so Josh has good targets to throw to and the passing game becomes more explosive. Maybe Palmer and Moore improve that talent level, I believe it is going to be pretty marginal at best. In the end, this is where the WR train argument comes from, bring back the occasional fast ball to pair with the methodical offense we have built.

I understand the WR train premise. I’d even go as far as to say I don’t think it is entirely wrong. 
 

Where I do think a lot of you make a bit of a mistake is you go in with a premise (our offense needs better WR, specifically outside) and you go looking for evidence that supports it instead of looking at ALL of the evidence without bias and coming to more objective conclusions.

 

Im going to make my case with 4 WR:  Diggs, Davis, Cooper and MVS.

 

Let’s start with Diggs. Statistically, he was a top WR in the NFL with the Bills for most of his tenure here, and I bet few would argue the eye test matched. The prevailing story for his drop off in 2023 was some combination of he had lost a step and locker room issues, but the truth is he started 2023 on fire. Then the Bills hit a rough patch, fired Dorsey, and his game tanked. His targets went down, his depth of target went down, his focus went down. So did his skills erode, was he on the naughty list, or did the offense maybe just change?

 

Then you have Davis. Total boom of bust as an outside WR. Made a lot of big plays, but his targets also resulted in a disproportionately large amount of the Bills negative plays under Dorsey. Enter Brady and his snaps go up while his targets go down (except in that one weird game where they fed him the ball on short stuff). He’s blocking more and going deep less. Seems frustrated.

 

Next up, MVS. Definitely a flawed receiver, but pretty much a prototype deep receiver. Big and fast and can track a football. The bills made a concerted effort the first few weeks of 2024 to get him some snaps and take some deep shots, but they could never connect and often stalled drives. Ultimately they wind up cutting him to acquire cooper. He goes to NO and resumes being an effective deep threat there (way over 20 ypc).

 

Which leads us to Cooper. No matter what your take on how much he contributed to the Bills in 2024, it’s hard to argue that he is the most accomplished WR the Bills have had outside of Diggs in a decade. He might not be a top 10 WR anymore, but he is definitely good enough to be a #1. This is what we all thought we needed post Diggs. But the Bills deploy his on less than 50% of snaps (he was 4th we most weeks) and he has games with ZERO targets. Only one game with double digit targets and he had a terrible conversion rate in it (6/14). Whether he helped or not is debatable, but what isn’t is he did not produce like a #1 wr…or even a #2.

 

So, you can read all of that and say “Mike, those guys are all scrubs or old or whatever” and what we really need is a star in his prime or a top draft pick or just a really fast guy. It was the players that were the problem. I think you want to believe that because the alternative is harder to accept:  The Bills like their offense this way. Sure, they don’t mind having a guy who can get deep outside, but they also see it as inefficient and high risk, so they aren’t going to invest a lot there. I think they like running the ball and throwing short and over the middle. It derisks the offense AND they still scored a ton of points. All that really suffered last year were stats. WR stats. Outside WR stats. 
 

Basically, the Bills have what they want…game manager Josh Allen. I don’t think they WANT to build an offense around assets that increase risk.

[LEBills]

15 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

I understand the WR train premise. I’d even go as far as to say I don’t think it is entirely wrong. 
 

Where I do think a lot of you make a bit of a mistake is you go in with a premise (our offense needs better WR, specifically outside) and you go looking for evidence that supports it instead of looking at ALL of the evidence without bias and coming to more objective conclusions.

 

Im going to make my case with 4 WR:  Diggs, Davis, Cooper and MVS.

 

Let’s start with Diggs. Statistically, he was a top WR in the NFL with the Bills for most of his tenure here, and I bet few would argue the eye test matched. The prevailing story for his drop off in 2023 was some combination of he had lost a step and locker room issues, but the truth is he started 2023 on fire. Then the Bills hit a rough patch, fired Dorsey, and his game tanked. His targets went down, his depth of target went down, his focus went down. So did his skills erode, was he on the naughty list, or did the offense maybe just change?

 

Then you have Davis. Total boom of bust as an outside WR. Made a lot of big plays, but his targets also resulted in a disproportionately large amount of the Bills negative plays under Dorsey. Enter Brady and his snaps go up while his targets go down (except in that one weird game where they fed him the ball on short stuff). He’s blocking more and going deep less. Seems frustrated.

 

Next up, MVS. Definitely a flawed receiver, but pretty much a prototype deep receiver. Big and fast and can track a football. The bills made a concerted effort the first few weeks of 2024 to get him some snaps and take some deep shots, but they could never connect and often stalled drives. Ultimately they wind up cutting him to acquire cooper. He goes to NO and resumes being an effective deep threat there (way over 20 ypc).

 

Which leads us to Cooper. No matter what your take on how much he contributed to the Bills in 2024, it’s hard to argue that he is the most accomplished WR the Bills have had outside of Diggs in a decade. He might not be a top 10 WR anymore, but he is definitely good enough to be a #1. This is what we all thought we needed post Diggs. But the Bills deploy his on less than 50% of snaps (he was 4th we most weeks) and he has games with ZERO targets. Only one game with double digit targets and he had a terrible conversion rate in it (6/14). Whether he helped or not is debatable, but what isn’t is he did not produce like a #1 wr…or even a #2.

 

So, you can read all of that and say “Mike, those guys are all scrubs or old or whatever” and what we really need is a star in his prime or a top draft pick or just a really fast guy. It was the players that were the problem. I think you want to believe that because the alternative is harder to accept:  The Bills like their offense this way. Sure, they don’t mind having a guy who can get deep outside, but they also see it as inefficient and high risk, so they aren’t going to invest a lot there. I think they like running the ball and throwing short and over the middle. It derisks the offense AND they still scored a ton of points. All that really suffered last year were stats. WR stats. Outside WR stats. 
 

Basically, the Bills have what they want…game manager Josh Allen. I don’t think they WANT to build an offense around assets that increase risk.

Let’s assume you are right. It would be the wrong approach by the Bills to limit their offense that way. It doesn’t have to be a vertical passing attack like Dorsey ran, but you have to at least have that option in your bag or, as others have stated before, defenses will compress the middle of the field and make it even harder for your pass catchers to get open and space for your running backs to run.

 

So regardless, I am going to say we need to try to draft receivers going forward. 

[finn]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

They simply haven't been good enough on either side of the ball when it counts.

Greatness isn't PPG or YPG, as I'm sure you're saying. It's making the plays in the clutch. Last year, despite the 4th down blitz, Allen threw a catchable ball. Kincaid dropped it. The year before, Allen threw a perfect ball to Diggs. Diggs dropped it. In the 2022 regular season, Allen threw arguably the most beautiful and clutch ball of his career against the Jets, a 60-yard dime to Davis with the game on the line. Davis dropped it. 

 

Lesson: the Bills need more clutch receivers, aka great receivers, in the most accurate definition of the word. I happen to believe Shakir is one, and that he would have made that catch in 2023 in the end zone if Dawkins could have held his block a microsecond longer. I also think Ty Johnson may be clutch, as Hollins proved to be, surprisingly. (Naturally, Beane dumped him.) Palmer? Coleman? Samuels? Knox? Ronnie Harmon, out of retirement? 

 

If only Allen could play quarterback AND receiver...☹️