Beane's First-Round Deals

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

100%. He doesn’t make a move like this unless he’s got something planned. I really think it’s one of 3 options. 

 

Seems that he regretfully made the move for the simple reason that you can't have a player that said/implied what Diggs did on the team.  

 

There no indication that this was planned much less expected, until very recently, much less that they wanted this.  

 

If it is, then they've been flat out lying to everyone for a long while.  

 

 

Edited April 5 by PBF81

[Thurman#1]

Just now, Warriorspikes51 said:

no, but Thomas Jr may be there at 16

Also, if the scouts and Beane believe 1 of the top 3 is worth the price....you do it.   

Allen should have a top tier player he can rely on.  There's a higher % chance it's one of those top 3  then the other guys available at 28 

 

 

Oh, agreed that Thomas Junior might be there. But he's just not worth giving up nearly that much for.

 

Not that that any non-QB is. But Thomas Jr. sure isn't.

[Bray Wyatt]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

So, the 1st and 2nd round picks in a draft when you don't have a 3rd rounder, and then the 1st and one of the two second rounders the next year is NOT the heart of two drafts? It absolutely is.

 

And you think we're going to get one of the top three WRs at 16? I mean, it's not impossible, but the likelihood of those three making it past about #10 or #12 is really slim.

 

I'd love to get some of what you're smoking.

 

Quick question: What do these players have in common? Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins?

 

All WRs chosen in the top ten picks in the last ten years.

 

We tend to think "a top ten guy, he'll be a Ja'Marr Chase." And that ain't necessarily so. There are some very good WRs chosen in the top ten of those same drafts. But more who never justified the pick.

 

For those curious, here are all the rest of the top ten in those ten years:  Chase, Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Garrett Wilson, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans. That's five terrific players, one pretty damn good one in Smith and again, Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins.

 

That's why you don't make such massive trade-ups unless you're doing it for a franchise QB.

 

First, we can have a conversation without all of the dramatics and condescension. 

 

If the scenario played out as the person I quoted stated I wouldnt be against that solution to our WR issue.

 

In this draft we would still have made a pick in the first (Brian Thomas in the scenario given). And yes we wouldnt pick again til the 4th round. (so we miss out on picks in the second and third round)

 

Next draft we would only be missing a pick in the first round. I wouldnt call that missing a heart of the draft, you choose to say so, fine we disagree. I dont see either take as unreasonable I just dont agree with yours.

 

Also in this scenario, we would be getting DK metcalf, who I think is the exact type of receiver this offense is missing. So this isnt a trade up for one player a la Julio Jones, we would be getting DK as well, thus making these scenarios different.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Seems that he regretfully made the move for the simple reason that you can't have a player that said/implied what Diggs did on the team.  

 

There no indication that this was planned much less expected, until very recently, much less that they wanted this.  

 

If it is, then they've been flat out lying to everyone for a long while.  

 

 

 

 

Very much this.

 

I'm sure he's got a plan. But it's unlikely to be the kind of huge splash folks on here would like it to be.

 

IMO it won't be trading for Aiyuk or someone of that sort, but my guess is that kind of move is more likely than the huge move in the draft so many here want.

 

Guess we'll see.

[uticaclub]

12 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

You can do whatever you want  & the rest of us will choose to call him that if we want.  Thanks. 

He was giving the nickname after he signed Miller, extended Diggs, traded up for Elam, signed OJ Howard & Roger Staffold.

[Thurman#1]

15 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

First, we can have a conversation without all of the dramatics and condescension. 

 

If the scenario played out as the person I quoted stated I wouldnt be against that solution to our WR issue.

 

In this draft we would still have made a pick in the first (Brian Thomas in the scenario given). And yes we wouldnt pick again til the 4th round. (so we miss out on picks in the second and third round)

 

Next draft we would only be missing a pick in the first round. I wouldnt call that missing a heart of the draft, you choose to say so, fine we disagree. I dont see either take as unreasonable I just dont agree with yours.

 

Also in this scenario, we would be getting DK metcalf, who I think is the exact type of receiver this offense is missing. So this isnt a trade up for one player a la Julio Jones, we would be getting DK as well, thus making these scenarios different.

 

 

 

 

You talk the way you talk. I'll talk the way I talk.

 

OK?

 

You've summed up the results perfectly. For one guy, we'd have traded away two firsts and two seconds, getting a (considerably better) first in return, when we don't have a third round pick that first year..

 

That's absolutely the heart of two drafts, in exchange for one player. Who, like it or not might turn out to be a Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London or a Sammy Watkins, though all of those guys were thought of quite a bit more highly than Brian Thomas.

 

Bray, I am sorry, though, I didn't see Metcalf in your original post. My fault.

 

But while I would like the results at WR, it would leave even larger gaps elsewhere because we'd be spending $49M on this year's cap for the WR combination of DK Metcalf and Stefon Diggs catching balls from Stroud. That's about 25% of our cap this year for two receivers, only one of whom is actually on the team.

 

IMO if you give up that treasure trove of picks, you're going to need your FA money to fill in the holes.

 

 

Edited April 5 by Thurman#1

[Warriorspikes51]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Oh, agreed that Thomas Junior might be there. But he's just not worth giving up nearly that much for.

 

Not that that any non-QB is. But Thomas Jr. sure isn't.

you're not willing to trade 28, a 2025 2nd and a 4th  to move up to 16 for a dynamic WR?

[oldmanfan]

Beane has a plan.  He wouldn’t make a move like this without one.  And we’ll see it play out this month.

[Dillenger4]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Very much this.

 

I'm sure he's got a plan. But it's unlikely to be the kind of huge splash folks on here would like it to be.

 

IMO it won't be trading for Aiyuk or someone of that sort, but my guess is that kind of move is more likely than the huge move in the draft so many here want.

 

Guess we'll see.

This is the truth. It will be an OBJ type signing for 1-year, cheapish and we keep our draft. Or, at most - Ayouk and we keep most of our draft.

[Warriorspikes51]

2 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

He was giving the nickname after he signed Miller, extended Diggs, traded up for Elam, signed OJ Howard & Roger Staffold.

pretty sure it was way before that.

Miller was great until he tore the acl  -  Not Beane's fault.
Diggs was great and earned the deal until whatever his issues are  - Not Beane's fault
 

The others I'll give you, although Elam could still turn into a quality player. 

[PBF81]

8 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

First, we can have a conversation without all of the dramatics and condescension. 

 

If the scenario played out as the person I quoted stated I wouldnt be against that solution to our WR issue.

 

In this draft we would still have made a pick in the first (Brian Thomas in the scenario given). And yes we wouldnt pick again til the 4th round. (so we miss out on picks in the second and third round)

 

Next draft we would only be missing a pick in the first round. I wouldnt call that missing a heart of the draft, you choose to say so, fine we disagree. I dont see either take as unreasonable I just dont agree with yours.

 

Also in this scenario, we would be getting DK metcalf, who I think is the exact type of receiver this offense is missing. So this isnt a trade up for one player a la Julio Jones, we would be getting DK as well, thus making these scenarios different.

 

 

 

Historically Thurman's correct.  Trading up to get a WR is a fool's game.  I might do it for Harrison this year, because Allen's rotting on the vine only, but that won't be an option.  

 

Diminishing the value of next year's picks seems fine now, but next year we'd regret it unless that player shattered rookie expectations.  Beane's track record of that is zilch on top of it all.  

 

We currently only have two picks this year in the range of possibly getting NFL starters.  Selling the farm and reducing that to one isn't it best strategy.  

 

Beane needs to start hitting better on draft picks however.  

 

 

Edited April 5 by PBF81

[BeastMaster]

22 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

There are 3 WR's who are the top WR in most draft classes, plus BTJ who is probably the 2nd WR in most classes

Go after them if you have conviction on a specific player.   Enough playing around and being cautious 

BTJ hasn't shown much in terms of route running, making contested catches, or displaying toughness. He's raw as can be, and would likely need a couple years before becoming what you hope he would for what you gave up to draft him. He's tall and he's fast.

 

CeeDee Lamb and JJ went third and fourth in 2020, and Aiyuk went 6th. Pittman went in the 2nd round.

 

Stay at 28, and go back up in the second for another wideout in a deep class. In 2025, you have cap space and even better draft capital to reload with a young and talented roster that will contend for years with Josh in his prime

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Historically Thurman's correct.  Trading up to get a WR is a fool's game.  I might do it for Harrison this year, because Allen's routing on the vine only, but that wouldn't be an option.  

 

Diminishing the value of next year's picks seems fine now, but next year we'd regret unless that player shattered rookie expectations.  Beane's track record of that is zilch on top of it all.  

 

We currently only have two picks this year in the range of possibly getting NFL starters.  Selling the farm and reducing that to one isn't it best strategy.  

 

Beane needs to start hitting better on draft picks however.  

 

 

the 4th and 5th rounders are in the range of potential starters.  Happens every year 

[uticaclub]

4 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

pretty sure it was way before that.

Miller was great until he tore the acl  -  Not Beane's fault.
Diggs was great and earned the deal until whatever his issues are  - Not Beane's fault
 

The others I'll give you, although Elam could still turn into a quality player. 

Miller was old and signed because we had spent obscene amount of cap space & draft capital on push rush & got nothing. 

 

We don't know what Diggs issues were. They could have been with Beane & management

Edited April 5 by uticaclub

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, BeastMaster said:

BTJ hasn't shown much in terms of route running, making contested catches, or displaying toughness. He's raw as can be, and would likely need a couple years before becoming what you hope he would for what you gave up to draft him. He's tall and he's fast.

 

CeeDee Lamb and JJ went third and fourth in 2020, and Aiyuk went 6th. Pittman went in the 2nd round.

 

Stay at 28, and go back up in the second for another wideout in a deep class. In 2025, you have cap space and even better draft capital to reload with a young and talented roster that will contend for years with Josh in his prime

 

Oh really?  Weird!  How did he manage to reel in 17 TD's this past season and have the 2nd highest contested catch rate of the top 12 receivers in the class?
 

Not to mention his drop % was 2nd lowest  

But yea...he's just tall and fast  🙄

[Blackbeard]

Either of two things will happen:

 

1.  Move up and take a solid, known #1 WR in the draft (fingers crossed they turn out as expected) .  OR

2.  Bring in a FA #1 and keep pic 28 and draft who knows who.

 

 

I Cannot see any other option, except a combination of both.

Edited April 5 by Blackbeard

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, BeastMaster said:

BTJ hasn't shown much in terms of route running, making contested catches, or displaying toughness. He's raw as can be, and would likely need a couple years before becoming what you hope he would for what you gave up to draft him. He's tall and he's fast.

 

CeeDee Lamb and JJ went third and fourth in 2020, and Aiyuk went 6th. Pittman went in the 2nd round.

 

Stay at 28, and go back up in the second for another wideout in a deep class. In 2025, you have cap space and even better draft capital to reload with a young and talented roster that will contend for years with Josh in his prime

 

Yeah, I caught that too on the nfl.com draft profile.  What's interesting is, for once, the diversity in the reviews of the top WRs in the draft across the spectrum of draft sites.  

 

Typically they all say similar things, probably because they all draw from the same two or three original sources that also seem to largely be in agreement.  But for the top WRs it's scattered this year.  

 

It gives pause about the talk about the WR class.  

 

 

5 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

the 4th and 5th rounders are in the range of potential starters.  Happens every year 

 

Not expectedly.  

 

Aka percentage wise.  

 

Mr. Irrelevant, Purdy.  But your not going to trade your day 1 & 2 picks for a dozen 7th rounders. 

 

Come on now, let's keep things in the realm of reasonability here.  

 

 

[Thurman#1]

15 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

you're not willing to trade 28, a 2025 2nd and a 4th  to move up to 16 for a dynamic WR?

 

 

Man, you frightened me there. I thought I'd misread the post. Went back and checked it. It's the 2024 1st rounder and the 2025 1st as well, plus the other picks.

 

For Brian Thomas, no I am not. Even throw in the right to pay Metcalf $18M and I'm not.

[PBF81]

8 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Oh really?  Weird!  How did he manage to reel in 17 TD's this past season and have the 2nd highest contested catch rate of the top 12 receivers in the class?
 

Not to mention his drop % was 2nd lowest  

But yea...he's just tall and fast  🙄

 

As to BJT, it's important to look at how these prospects played in the biggest of games and against competition that is destined for the NFL.

 

Based on the write-ups it's confusing what to make of BJT.  But he played exceedingly well in the bigger games.  

 

That's relevant.  

 

 

[oldmanfan]

16 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Historically Thurman's correct.  Trading up to get a WR is a fool's game.  I might do it for Harrison this year, because Allen's rotting on the vine only, but that won't be an option.  

 

Diminishing the value of next year's picks seems fine now, but next year we'd regret it unless that player shattered rookie expectations.  Beane's track record of that is zilch on top of it all.  

 

We currently only have two picks this year in the range of possibly getting NFL starters.  Selling the farm and reducing that to one isn't it best strategy.  

 

Beane needs to start hitting better on draft picks however.  

 

 

Saying Allen is rotting on the vine is perhaps the most ridiculously hyperbolic statement made on this board in recent memory.

Edited April 5 by oldmanfan