We are set at WR. Maybe we’ll grab one in Round 6.

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I hope you’re right but Beane has done the whole “dumpster dive for guys around Diggs” before. 
 

I agree with your approach and I agree that Beane has no choice but to draft a WR high. But does Beane believe he doesn’t have a choice?

He has talked about the need to be more explosive. The rising WR cost makes it imperative. It’s tough to have a really expensive QB & WR. Josh will always be paid near the top of the market moving forward. 
 

They met with all of the top guys at the combine too. Generally that’s decent foreshadowing.

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

Davis is better than Samuel. Davis could get down field. Early in the season teams accounted for him. Not so much by the end. Regardless, Davis is better than Samuel. 

Not really. Davis is a one-trick pony that can only effectively run deep. He may be better at that one trick, but I don't think it will lead to more production. Samuel runs far more routes than Gabe does at a high level, and I see him being more productive in this offense from game to game with a lower ceiling in any given game. Shakir on the other hand gives us that high ceiling. He's an explosive player that could definitely have monster games.

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Bills are in the same position that they were in last year at WR when they weren’t good enough. Samuel replaces Gabe/Harty and Hollins replaces Sherfield. They needed a number 2 last year and still do. There’s NOTHING more important than giving Josh weapons. With where WR contracts have gone it is even more of a priority. They likely take one with their first pick. At worst, they take one with their 2nd. 

I don't really see us getting over the hump by getting Josh more weapons when he doesn't maximize the value of the ones he already has. Of course it's never a bad thing to have more weapons on offense, but we already know winning shootouts isn't the way to win Super Bowls. If you can't stop Mahomes, you won't win. Our weapons gave us every opportunity to win last season as they did in the 13 seconds game, and yet we still lost.

Going into next year with Cook, Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir should be enough to get the job done for top end talent with Samuel, Johnson and whatever rookies they bring in as reserves. Realistically, any rookie they bring in is likely to be no better than the 5th ( or even 6th) most used weapon in the passing game in 2024 or even 2025. There's an outside chance of it sure, but it's not likely unless there are injuries.

[boyst]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I like the Samuel fit but not as a number 2. They can use him like SF uses Deebo. He’s a chess piece. He isn’t going to consistently be a boundary guy. 

If we had Samuel last year, whew-wee that would have been nice. We need a boundary guy. Let's hope the draft delivers him. 

30 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Not really. Davis is a one-trick pony that can only effectively run deep. He may be better at that one trick, but I don't think it will lead to more production. Samuel runs far more routes than Gabe does at a high level, and I see him being more productive in this offense from game to game with a lower ceiling in any given game. Shakir on the other hand gives us that high ceiling. He's an explosive player that could definitely have monster games.

Samuel doesn't extend the field. Davis did. Josh/Davis couldn't capitalize on the down field game. 

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I don't really see us getting over the hump by getting Josh more weapons when he doesn't maximize the value of the ones he already has. Of course it's never a bad thing to have more weapons on offense, but we already know winning shootouts isn't the way to win Super Bowls. If you can't stop Mahomes, you won't win. Our weapons gave us every opportunity to win last season as they did in the 13 seconds game, and yet we still lost.

Going into next year with Cook, Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir should be enough to get the job done for top end talent with Samuel, Johnson and whatever rookies they bring in as reserves. Realistically, any rookie they bring in is likely to be no better than the 5th ( or even 6th) most used weapon in the passing game in 2024 or even 2025. There's an outside chance of it sure, but it's not likely unless there are injuries.

We COMPLETELY differ in how this team gets over the hump. The investment that they’ve made in defense vs. offense is insane. Trying to outlast Mahomes doesn’t work!! It hasn’t worked. Try to force them to keep up with you!!

 

Why do we think a rookie WR will be our 5th or 6th most targeted player? 😂😂 For context, the Ravens leader in targets was a rookie, Vikings 2nd leader, rams leader, Texans leader would have been without an injury. The Bills number 2 WR is not on the roster. Why should we think that the number 2 WR will be 5th or 6th in targets? 😂😂

[GoBills808]

24 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I don't really see us getting over the hump by getting Josh more weapons when he doesn't maximize the value of the ones he already has. Of course it's never a bad thing to have more weapons on offense, but we already know winning shootouts isn't the way to win Super Bowls. If you can't stop Mahomes, you won't win. Our weapons gave us every opportunity to win last season as they did in the 13 seconds game, and yet we still lost.

Going into next year with Cook, Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir should be enough to get the job done for top end talent with Samuel, Johnson and whatever rookies they bring in as reserves. Realistically, any rookie they bring in is likely to be no better than the 5th ( or even 6th) most used weapon in the passing game in 2024 or even 2025. There's an outside chance of it sure, but it's not likely unless there are injuries.

makes no sense

 

Kincaid came in as a rookie and was second in targets

 

Davis has 80 that need replacing, Knox can go to zero for all I care, and Diggs needs about 20% fewer himself

 

 

[boyst]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

Yeah, I like the idea of Samuel replaces Harty, Weirdo Hollins replaces Sherfield. They haven't replaced Davis yet, and that needs to be an early pick in the draft.

Weirdo hollins does not like shoes. So what? I hate shoes, too and known for it. 

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We COMPLETELY differ in how this team gets over the hump. The investment that they’ve made in defense vs. offense is insane. Trying to outlast Mahomes doesn’t work!! It hasn’t worked. Try to force them to keep up with you!!

 

Why do we think a rookie WR will be our 5th or 6th most targeted player? 😂😂 For context, the Ravens leader in targets was a rookie, Vikings 2nd leader, rams leader, Texans leader would have been without an injury. The Bills number 2 WR is not on the roster. Why should we think that the number 2 WR will be 5th or 6th in targets? 😂😂

They just signed Curtis Samuel to be our #2. They aren't paying him 7M/15 guaranteed to be our #4.

It's wild to me that so many folks advocate takings WRs high and then use examples of WRs that were drafted in later rounds as examples of how much production they can have.

Tank Dell, taken in the 3rd
Nacua, drafted in the 5th


WRs are a crap shoot. in 2023 they mostly had decent production, but you're taking 45-60ish receptions. On this team that would put them 3rd-5th depending on how much target share they get and how much target share our own growing stars like Kincaid, Shakir and Cook utilize. Teams like Baltimore and Minnesota (Post Jefferson injury) had pretty much bare cupboards so it makes sense that a rookie who performed well would get as many targets as they could handle.

In Seattle, they had a gap at #3 and Smith-Njigba (1.20) filled it with 63 receptions on 93 targets
In LAC, Quentin Johnson went one pick later (1.21) but only mustered 38/67
Zay Flowers (1.22) went 77/108 as the only receiving threat on the team much of the season
Jordan Addision (1.23), Jayden Reed(2.19), Rashee Rice(2.24), Tank Dell (3.06), Josh Downs (3.16) all provided similar value to Flowers. Nacua (5.42) was best in class. Most of the rest of the class fared far worse.

For context, the Bills had:
Diggs: 107/160
Kincaid: 73/91
Davis: 45/81
Cook: 44/54
Shakir: 39/45

Samuel went 62/91 last year. Expect him to do more with a similar or less target share than Davis had. Expect Shakir to get at least 20, if not more targets)

Who are you taking targets from to feed to a rookie?
The argument has to be that you're taking them from Samuel, but that argument doesn't make any sense at all given what they just ponied up to go get him in the first place.

More realistically I expect a rookie to best case scenario see 40-50 targets int his offense by taking a few from Diggs and getting more kicks at the can due to increased offensive efficiency.

 

29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

makes no sense

 

Kincaid came in as a rookie and was second in targets

 

Davis has 80 that need replacing, Knox can go to zero for all I care, and Diggs needs about 20% fewer himself

 

 

Kincaid got 80 because there were 80 there to be had. Once Knox went down, he stepped into a full time starting role and made the most of the opportunity. For a rookie WR drafted this year, you'd have to have a major injury to Diggs or Samuel imo, and even then, I'd expect Shakir to see most of the benefit.

[Kirby Jackson]

19 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

They just signed Curtis Samuel to be our #2. They aren't paying him 7M/15 guaranteed to be our #4.

It's wild to me that so many folks advocate takings WRs high and then use examples of WRs that were drafted in later rounds as examples of how much production they can have.

Tank Dell, taken in the 3rd
Nacua, drafted in the 5th


WRs are a crap shoot. in 2023 they mostly had decent production, but you're taking 45-60ish receptions. On this team that would put them 3rd-5th depending on how much target share they get and how much target share our own growing stars like Kincaid, Shakir and Cook utilize. Teams like Baltimore and Minnesota (Post Jefferson injury) had pretty much bare cupboards so it makes sense that a rookie who performed well would get as many targets as they could handle.

In Seattle, they had a gap at #3 and Smith-Njigba (1.20) filled it with 63 receptions on 93 targets
In LAC, Quentin Johnson went one pick later (1.21) but only mustered 38/67
Zay Flowers (1.22) went 77/108 as the only receiving threat on the team much of the season
Jordan Addision (1.23), Jayden Reed(2.19), Rashee Rice(2.24), Tank Dell (3.06), Josh Downs (3.16) all provided similar value to Flowers. Nacua (5.42) was best in class. Most of the rest of the class fared far worse.

For context, the Bills had:
Diggs: 107/160
Kincaid: 73/91
Davis: 45/81
Cook: 44/54
Shakir: 39/45

Samuel went 62/91 last year. Expect him to do more with a similar or less target share than Davis had. Expect Shakir to get at least 20, if not more targets)

Who are you taking targets from to feed to a rookie?
The argument has to be that you're taking them from Samuel, but that argument doesn't make any sense at all given what they just ponied up to go get him in the first place.

More realistically I expect a rookie to best case scenario see 40-50 targets int his offense by taking a few from Diggs and getting more kicks at the can due to increased offensive efficiency.

 

Curtis Samuel wasn’t signed to be the number 2. He was signed to add some explosion. As an Ohio State fan, I’m extremely familiar with his game. He will be in the backfield, the slot and outside some. He’s what they wanted from McKenzie or Harty with more running ability. He absolutely won’t be the number 2. That will come in the draft. They are trying to add a guy with number 1 upside, on a rookie deal. That’s how business is done now.

 

In terms of targets, Diggs isn’t getting 160 again. There are another 146 targets not on the roster. It will be something like 130 for Diggs and 80 for Shakir. 110 more for Kincaid, 50 for Cook, 30 for Hollins and 55 for Samuel. 110 for the number 2 WR not on the roster. There will be another 55 or so spread across everyone else (including Knox). That has them at 620 pass attempts. Last year was 579 (with an emphasis on running the ball). 646 is Allen’s single season high. Feel free to allocate as you see fit if you don’t like my allotment.

 

To recap (620 targets):

diggs - 130

wr2 (1st or 2nd round) - 110

kincaid - 110

Shakir - 80

Samuel - 55 (another 55 carries)

Cook - 50

Knox - 40

Hollins - 30

everyone else - 15

Edited March 17 by Kirby Jackson

[NoSaint]

54 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We COMPLETELY differ in how this team gets over the hump. The investment that they’ve made in defense vs. offense is insane. Trying to outlast Mahomes doesn’t work!! It hasn’t worked. Try to force them to keep up with you!!

 

Why do we think a rookie WR will be our 5th or 6th most targeted player? 😂😂 For context, the Ravens leader in targets was a rookie, Vikings 2nd leader, rams leader, Texans leader would have been without an injury. The Bills number 2 WR is not on the roster. Why should we think that the number 2 WR will be 5th or 6th in targets? 😂😂

to further your point, depending on diggs condition- it might be our WR1 isn’t but wr2 is diggs

[Dr. Who]

55 minutes ago, boyst said:

Weirdo hollins does not like shoes. So what? I hate shoes, too and known for it. 

If he can play, he can be as eccentric as he likes. As I wrote elsewhere, shoeless in Buffalo is not a good plan for football season. 

 

[NoSaint]

11 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Curtis Samuel wasn’t signed to be the number 2. He was signed to add some explosion. As an Ohio State fan, I’m extremely familiar with his game. He will be in the backfield, the slot and outside some. He’s what they wanted from McKenzie or Harty with more running ability. He absolutely won’t be the number 2. That will come in the draft. They are trying to add a guy with number 1 upside, on a rookie deal. That’s how business is done now.

 

In terms of targets, Diggs isn’t getting 160 again. There are another 146 targets not on the roster. It will be something like 130 for Diggs and 80 for Shakir. 110 more for Kincaid, 50 for Cook, 40 for Hollins and 70 for Samuel. 110 for the number 2 WR not on the roster. There will be another 30 or so spread across everyone else. That has them at 620 pass attempts. Last year was 579 (with an emphasis on running the ball). 646 is Allen’s single season high. Feel free to allocate as you see fit if you don’t like my allotment.

As usual, agree. You get not just x and o but league trends, dollars/cents, roster construction and the college pipeline 

 

beane has to be looking at this as his urgent chance to find a plus 1 in the Josh plus somebody equation. And now that Josh has been paid his running partner won’t be a big paycheck.

 

He has to start swinging and doing it often. Worst case you end up with a bunch of viable guys, but best case you get that top 10 wr on a rookie deal

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

If he can play, he can be as eccentric as he likes. As I wrote elsewhere, shoeless in Buffalo is not a good plan for football season. 

 

the problem in discussing his role in our plans is he’s a guy that’s competing to be a minor role player realistically 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

As usual, agree. You get not just x and o but league trends, dollars/cents, roster construction and the college pipeline 

 

beane has to be looking at this as his urgent chance to find a plus 1 in the Josh plus somebody equation. And now that Josh has been paid his running partner won’t be a big paycheck.

 

He has to start swinging and doing it often. Worst case you end up with a bunch of viable guys, but best case you get that top 10 wr on a rookie deal

that's why they should be considering moving up for their guy 

 

younger and cheaper than Diggs is a wash but there's space for whoever they draft to be better too which would be a big win

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

As usual, agree. You get not just x and o but league trends, dollars/cents, roster construction and the college pipeline 

 

beane has to be looking at this as his urgent chance to find a plus 1 in the Josh plus somebody equation. And now that Josh has been paid his running partner won’t be a big paycheck.

 

He has to start swinging and doing it often. Worst case you end up with a bunch of viable guys, but best case you get that top 10 wr on a rookie deal

the problem in discussing his role in our plans is he’s a guy that’s competing to be a minor role player realistically 

I understand. He's a Rosencrantz and Guildenstern level player. 

But his peculiarities make him interesting for discussion.

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

that's why they should be considering moving up for their guy 

 

younger and cheaper than Diggs is a wash but there's space for whoever they draft to be better too which would be a big win

Well, I hope that's true. It seems the top tier is prohibitively expensive, so you're talking about Thomas, and then maybe Mitchell.

Mitchell you might get for a reasonable cost. I think Thomas, you have to be willing to gamble, and I'm not sold on Beane's willingness to take that much risk.

If you're thinking another scenario, I'd love to hear it.

Edited March 17 by Dr. Who

[BringBackFergy]

5 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

How ridiculous. You should just ignore Hollins and Shorter. So right now it's Diggs, Samuel, Shakir. What about the future? And what if someone gets injured? They absolutely need a blue chip rookie added to this room.

So sad. So very sad. Think about it. 

[NoSaint]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

that's why they should be considering moving up for their guy 

 

younger and cheaper than Diggs is a wash but there's space for whoever they draft to be better too which would be a big win

It’s a position where you can truly flip your cap situation for a few years if you hit on a wr1. 
 

It’s a $25-30m a year swing 

 

we aren’t getting a rookie qb window again but getting an elite pass catcher is both possible and hugely valuable. 
 

not campaigning for a specific guy or strategy beyond if they think ones there, they need to get him if they can… even if it costs some draft capital. You’ll have 30m in savings to spend on free agents to replace those picks 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

It’s a position where you can truly flip your cap situation for a few years if you hit on a wr1. 
 

It’s a $25-30m a year swing 

 

we aren’t getting a rookie qb window again but getting an elite pass catcher is both possible and hugely valuable. 
 

not campaigning for a specific guy or strategy beyond if they think ones there, they need to get him if they can… even if it costs some draft capital. You’ll have 30m in savings to spend on free agents to replace those picks 

And that is where the value of the position has to be a big part of the calculation. If you hit on a safety, you're not saving 30 million dollars on the cap.

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

It’s a position where you can truly flip your cap situation for a few years if you hit on a wr1. 
 

It’s a $25-30m a year swing 

 

we aren’t getting a rookie qb window again but getting an elite pass catcher is both possible and hugely valuable. 
 

not campaigning for a specific guy or strategy beyond if they think ones there, they need to get him if they can… even if it costs some draft capital. You’ll have 30m in savings to spend on free agents to replace those picks 

 

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

And that is where the value of the position has to be a big part of the calculation. If you hit on a safety, you're not saving 30 million dollars on the cap.

This holds especially true if you take the guy in round 1 as opposed to round 2. That 5th year option is incredibly valuable for a WR (especially when you’ll be deep into Josh’s current deal).

[BringBackFergy]

6 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

How ridiculous. You should just ignore Hollins and Shorter. So right now it's Diggs, Samuel, Shakir. What about the future? And what if someone gets injured? They absolutely need a blue chip rookie added to this room.

Look at KC. Our WR room is better. No joke. 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

This holds especially true if you take the guy in round 1 as opposed to round 2. That 5th year option is incredibly valuable for a WR (especially when you’ll be deep into Josh’s current deal).

Of course, those of us who agree on this are going to find these points insightful, and the contrary views obtuse to the obvious. All the same, a very cogent point.