college talent and translation to the NFL - offense vs. defense

[dave mcbride]

https://theathletic.com/4105045/2023/01/19/college-football-recruiting-star-system-disparity-nfl/ (paywall)

 

This is pretty interesting although not terribly surprising. Guys who produce on offense in the NFL are by a wide margin lower-star recruits than guys who produce on defense. There's also interesting stuff about how the big-time high school evaluation industry is based in the Southeast and hence misses on a lot of QBs and o-linemen. 

--

'Jacobs’ rise to superstardom is just the latest example of an interesting scouting oddity of sorts. On this year’s NFLPA All-Pro Team, none of the 11 offensive players selected had been a five-star recruit; only one of them, guard Zack Martin, was even ranked as a four-star prospect. The average star ranking of the 11 players was 2.0. It’s on the opposite side of the ball where stars apparently really matter. Of the 11 defensive players on the All-Pro team, seven had been five-star recruits and two more were four-stars prospects. The other two were three-star players, making the average 4.5.

 

[Interesting side note: Stefon Diggs was second-team all-pro and a five-star recruit.--DM] 

 

The Athletic asked 13 individuals in the evaluation and coaching world why they think there is such a disparity in how the star system works related to offensive and defensive players. The individuals were granted anonymity in order to speak freely about player evaluation and college football recruiting.

 

“My theory: You can disguise a good player on offense and also uplift and over-evaluate a player with an unbelievable supporting cast,” said former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, a draft analyst with NFL Network. “With defensive guys, it’s more, ‘Did you beat the guy in front of you?’ And when it comes to D-linemen, there’s only so many of those guys. It’s like with cornerbacks: There are physical requirements for those positions. You can play with a 4.6 wide receiver. You can’t play with a 4.6 cornerback.”

 

One Big Ten recruiting coordinator echoed Jeremiah’s comments. “If a defensive player does their assignment and wins their box or one-on-one, they can have immediate impact and success,” he said. “On the other hand, offensive players are heavily dependent on scheme — and each other. Like a dynamic wide receiver is highly dependent upon the QB and O-line. The QB depends on the OL. A good running back can be neutralized if the offense can’t spread defenders to make space.

 

“I think you can identify the talent and the traits that make them elite. The challenge is projecting the fit based on offensive schemes. Kenneth Walker’s running style was a fit for Michigan State.”

 

Walker, too, was a curious evaluation study. He was ranked by 247Sports as a two-star prospect, the 229th-best running back in the Class of 2019. Wake Forest was his only reported Power 5 offer. In two seasons in the ACC, he was a solid back but didn’t break out until he transferred to Michigan State, where he ran for 1,636 yards and won the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top running back. The Seattle Seahawks took him 41st overall last year, and he’s one of six finalists for NFL Rookie of the Year.

 

“Running backs are a dime a dozen, and it’s all about fit,” a Big 12 recruiting coordinator said, “same reason Willie Parker was a backup at North Carolina and ends up being a Super Bowl hero.”

 

The theories about the evaluation process are all over the map — literally.

 

“Most of that (online recruiting) industry lies in the Southeast, where the big money and interest is. That’s where most of the best defensive talent exists too, with D-linemen and DBs. Hence the Rivals and 247 guys can see and evaluate them more in the Southeast,” said FSU director of high school relations Ryan Bartow, who previously spent a dozen years covering recruiting for 247Sports and Rivals. “The best spots for QBs (California and Texas) and for O-line (the Midwest and Northeast) are seen by less in that space and industry.”

 

The average star rankings of 11-man units also can be skewed by the fact that the two toughest positions to evaluate, quarterback and offensive line, would make up more than half of that starting unit. The All-Pro quarterback this year is former three-star recruit Patrick Mahomes.'

 

 

Edited January 19, 2023 by dave mcbride

[KDIGGZ]

I always find it interesting how most of the players are from the southeast and they start getting recruited when they are like 13 years old. How do they know they will still be good when they get older? Or keep growing? A lot of kids that were good when I was younger didn't even end up playing in high school. I didn't fill out my frame until college and by then I hadn't played sports in 2 years. 0 star recruit Josh Allen didn't have his growth spurt until College but lucky for him he didn't listen to the doubters and kept going for it. It's definitely an inexact science and they are probably missing a lot of talent. And if you want to get recruited then move to Texas or Florida 

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

https://theathletic.com/4105045/2023/01/19/college-football-recruiting-star-system-disparity-nfl/ (paywall)

 

This is pretty interesting although not terribly surprising. Guys who produce on offense in the NFL are by a wide margin lower-star recruits than guys who produce on defense. There's also interesting stuff about how the big-time high school evaluation industry is based in the Southeast and hence misses on a lot of QBs and o-linemen. 

--

'Jacobs’ rise to superstardom is just the latest example of an interesting scouting oddity of sorts. On this year’s NFLPA All-Pro Team, none of the 11 offensive players selected had been a five-star recruit; only one of them, guard Zack Martin, was even ranked as a four-star prospect. The average star ranking of the 11 players was 2.0. It’s on the opposite side of the ball where stars apparently really matter. Of the 11 defensive players on the All-Pro team, seven had been five-star recruits and two more were four-stars prospects. The other two were three-star players, making the average 4.5.

 

[Interesting side note: Stefon Diggs was second-team all-pro and a five-star recruit.--DM] 

 

The Athletic asked 13 individuals in the evaluation and coaching world why they think there is such a disparity in how the star system works related to offensive and defensive players. The individuals were granted anonymity in order to speak freely about player evaluation and college football recruiting.

 

“My theory: You can disguise a good player on offense and also uplift and over-evaluate a player with an unbelievable supporting cast,” said former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, a draft analyst with NFL Network. “With defensive guys, it’s more, ‘Did you beat the guy in front of you?’ And when it comes to D-linemen, there’s only so many of those guys. It’s like with cornerbacks: There are physical requirements for those positions. You can play with a 4.6 wide receiver. You can’t play with a 4.6 cornerback.”

 

One Big Ten recruiting coordinator echoed Jeremiah’s comments. “If a defensive player does their assignment and wins their box or one-on-one, they can have immediate impact and success,” he said. “On the other hand, offensive players are heavily dependent on scheme — and each other. Like a dynamic wide receiver is highly dependent upon the QB and O-line. The QB depends on the OL. A good running back can be neutralized if the offense can’t spread defenders to make space.

 

“I think you can identify the talent and the traits that make them elite. The challenge is projecting the fit based on offensive schemes. Kenneth Walker’s running style was a fit for Michigan State.”

 

Walker, too, was a curious evaluation study. He was ranked by 247Sports as a two-star prospect, the 229th-best running back in the Class of 2019. Wake Forest was his only reported Power 5 offer. In two seasons in the ACC, he was a solid back but didn’t break out until he transferred to Michigan State, where he ran for 1,636 yards and won the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top running back. The Seattle Seahawks took him 41st overall last year, and he’s one of six finalists for NFL Rookie of the Year.

 

“Running backs are a dime a dozen, and it’s all about fit,” a Big 12 recruiting coordinator said, “same reason Willie Parker was a backup at North Carolina and ends up being a Super Bowl hero.”

 

The theories about the evaluation process are all over the map — literally.

 

“Most of that (online recruiting) industry lies in the Southeast, where the big money and interest is. That’s where most of the best defensive talent exists too, with D-linemen and DBs. Hence the Rivals and 247 guys can see and evaluate them more in the Southeast,” said FSU director of high school relations Ryan Bartow, who previously spent a dozen years covering recruiting for 247Sports and Rivals. “The best spots for QBs (California and Texas) and for O-line (the Midwest and Northeast) are seen by less in that space and industry.”

 

The average star rankings of 11-man units also can be skewed by the fact that the two toughest positions to evaluate, quarterback and offensive line, would make up more than half of that starting unit. The All-Pro quarterback this year is former three-star recruit Patrick Mahomes.'

 

 

 

1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:

I always find it interesting how most of the players are from the southeast and they start getting recruited when they are like 13 years old. How do they know they will still be good when they get older? Or keep growing? A lot of kids that were good when I was younger didn't even end up playing in high school. I didn't fill out my frame until college and by then I hadn't played sports in 2 years. 0 star recruit Josh Allen didn't have his growth spurt until College but lucky for him he didn't listen to the doubters and kept going for it. It's definitely an inexact science and they are probably missing a lot of talent. And if you want to get recruited then move to Texas or Florida 

So recruiting offense and defense have varying levels of success right now for a number of factors 

 

The defensive talent is a lot easier to scout because… It’s pretty easy to see a really good high school pass rusher… or DT … If you have a 6 foot tall corner running a 4.4 and he’s long… hard to miss the elite talent 

 

On the offensive side of the ball there is a lot more spread out talent …. There are hundreds of good high school running backs every class… hundreds .. Hundreds of good WRs … so the difference between a 5* WR and a 3* WR might be development… not actual talent … also stacked dynasty HS programs with 11 D1 offensive players have made it hard to tell who really is elite and who feeds off people 

 

The goal of top college programs… Ohio state , Alabama , Georgia etc is too win now

 

So that means they want the best most college ready players… Those 4* and 5* guys are closer to being college ready at a major program … The last thing they want to do is develop a prospect for four years

 

Prospect rankings are for the college level not pros.. There are a lot of four-star or five star players who have not a lot of NFL potential for various reasons 

 

The high school quarterback circuit is ran out of California… Those California quarterbacks are going to camps since they’re 12 13 years old… If you don’t ever go out to Those California quarterback camps or the elite 11 system You will not be at five* or 4*quarterback… The rating system is absolutely biased towards California quarterbacks since they are usually wayyyy more developed than most QBs

 

And although Football players can receive scholarships in eighth or ninth grade… College programs cannot contact a player until January 1 of his sophomore year

[thenorthremembers]

Actually makes perfect sense.     Who would you bet on having better work ethic, a guy who made his way having to grind every step of the way or the guy who had a little easier road because they could rest on natural ability at a young age?

 

It goes without saying that pretty much anybody who makes it to the NFL has elite size and physical skills.    But I'd be more prone to bet on the guy who took the harder road. 

 

There is a reason the Bills look for guys who were captains on their college teams.

Edited January 19, 2023 by thenorthremembers

[Big Turk]

IMO offense requires a lot more thinking that can give players who use better technique and their savvy an advantage over simply athletic freaks, but on D, it's a lot more about athleticism and speed. Just my take.  You can make up for being in the wrong spot with athleticism and speed on defense much better than you can on offense.

[CapeBreton]

4 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Actually makes perfect sense.     Who would you bet on having better work ethic, a guy who made his way having to grind every step of the way or the guy who had a little easier road because they could rest on natural ability at a young age?

 

It goes without saying that pretty much anybody who makes it to the NFL has elite size and physical skills.    But I'd be more prone to bet on the guy who took the harder road. 

 

There is a reason the Bills look for guys who were captains on their college teams.

 

I remember Joe Marino saying last draft that the Bills likely prefer guys who had a harder road to success, thus why they hadn't drafted many guys from the SEC over the last few years. Then they ended up drafting Elam and Cook from there.

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

 

I remember Joe Marino saying last draft that the Bills likely prefer guys who had a harder road to success, thus why they hadn't drafted many guys from the SEC over the last few years. Then they ended up drafting Elam and Cook from there.

Good point. Buddy Nix was ALL about that region of the country: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2011_draft.htm and https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2012_draft.htm

[Buffalo716]

To play devils advocate and show it’s not just A south east thing… and that players can be found anywhere 

 

If you are a top high school QB Prospect from Western NY…. And you want to play high major college football

 

You need to go to one of the top Catholic schools.. Canisius … Canisius will send you to elite 11 camps if you’re good enough

 

That will give you a high major three star or four star rating… Ala Christian Veilleioux 

 

Christian starts getting offers from every program from penn state to Michigan and Tennessee …. They want him to play higher level football

 

So he goes down to Virginia to play big Time ball for two seasons… And ends up at Penn State… That is the life of a quarterback recruit not from a big-time area

 

You can be found in the northeast… But to really better your success you might need to move

Edited January 19, 2023 by Buffalo716

[dave mcbride]

28 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

To play devils advocate and show it’s not just A south east thing… and that players can be found anywhere 

 

If you are a top high school QB Prospect from Western NY…. And you want to play high major college football

 

You need to go to one of the top Catholic schools.. Canisius … Canisius will send you to elite 11 camps if you’re good enough

 

That will give you a high major three star or four star rating… Ala Christian Veilleioux 

 

Christian starts getting offers from every program from penn state to Michigan and Tennessee …. They want him to play higher level football

 

So he goes down to Virginia to play big Time ball for two seasons… And ends up at Penn State… That is the life of a quarterback recruit not from a big-time area

 

You can be found in the northeast… But to really better your success you might need to move

Gronk moved from Williamsville North to an elite Pittsburgh area school for his senior year ...

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Gronk moved from Williamsville North to an elite Pittsburgh area school for his senior year ...

And he was already considered the top TE in the country out of WNY

 

High major programs don’t want their kids playing A or AA ball in WNY when they can play 4a in Pennsylvania or Virginia 

 

So they basically convince them to move

[thenorthremembers]

1 hour ago, CapeBreton said:

 

I remember Joe Marino saying last draft that the Bills likely prefer guys who had a harder road to success, thus why they hadn't drafted many guys from the SEC over the last few years. Then they ended up drafting Elam and Cook from there.

I kinda got a kick out of that.  I recall Marino saying the same thing.   Can't imagine either had a hard road to success given their bloodlines.

[John from Riverside]

10 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

So recruiting offense and defense have varying levels of success right now for a number of factors 

 

The defensive talent is a lot easier to scout because… It’s pretty easy to see a really good high school pass rusher… or DT … If you have a 6 foot tall corner running a 4.4 and he’s long… hard to miss the elite talent 

 

On the offensive side of the ball there is a lot more spread out talent …. There are hundreds of good high school running backs every class… hundreds .. Hundreds of good WRs … so the difference between a 5* WR and a 3* WR might be development… not actual talent … also stacked dynasty HS programs with 11 D1 offensive players have made it hard to tell who really is elite and who feeds off people 

 

The goal of top college programs… Ohio state , Alabama , Georgia etc is too win now

 

So that means they want the best most college ready players… Those 4* and 5* guys are closer to being college ready at a major program … The last thing they want to do is develop a prospect for four years

 

Prospect rankings are for the college level not pros.. There are a lot of four-star or five star players who have not a lot of NFL potential for various reasons 

 

The high school quarterback circuit is ran out of California… Those California quarterbacks are going to camps since they’re 12 13 years old… If you don’t ever go out to Those California quarterback camps or the elite 11 system You will not be at five* or 4*quarterback… The rating system is absolutely biased towards California quarterbacks since they are usually wayyyy more developed than most QBs

 

And although Football players can receive scholarships in eighth or ninth grade… College programs cannot contact a player until January 1 of his sophomore year

It’s not just for quarterbacks
My son here in California used to get invited to camps for all skill positions and would go and compete as a Corner a pass rusher, and a receiver

You keep on going back to these camps whenever your invited you end up getting on lists scouts look at those lists

Edited January 20, 2023 by John from Riverside

[Buffalo716]

47 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

It’s not just for quarterbacks
My son here in California used to get invited to camps for all skill positions and would go and compete as a Corner a pass rusher, and a receiver

You keep on going back to these camps whenever your invited you end up getting on lists scouts look at those lists

Yea My point is the high school quarterback circuit is ran out of camps in California and the elite 11 camps

 

You’re not going to be a 4 * or 5* recruit if you don’t go to Those specifically… If you aren’t on the California quarterback circuit… you need to be in the elite 11 regional circuits…

 

the California QBs have the best HS QB circuit in the country and also attend elite 11 camps … they have a double whammy for high exposure

 

Every single state runs camps for every position… But California is the crown jewel of the quarterback circuit

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 20, 2023 by Buffalo716