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Cynthia Frelund NFL 2022 simulation has Bills winning the AFC #1 seed


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On 5/12/2022 at 7:20 PM, Rocky Landing said:

Am I the only one that's annoyed by all this "The Bills are going to the Super Bowl!!!" talk? I'm way too superstitious, and it's pissing me off. Everyone shut up already! Let's at least play a game or two!

 

Obviously Beane, McDermott, and the entire lockerroom knows this hype and talk means nothing.

 

And my only hope is they learned from last year when they thought they were somehow going to cruise to the #1 seed after a meaningless win in KC early in the season. They went 3-5 after that game before waking up in the final month.

 

But yah nothing is guaranteed for this team and they have a better chance of being a 10 win team that just misses the playoffs or bounced in the first round then they do getting to a SB this year.

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1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Obviously Beane, McDermott, and the entire lockerroom knows this hype and talk means nothing.

 

And my only hope is they learned from last year when they thought they were somehow going to cruise to the #1 seed after a meaningless win in KC early in the season. They went 3-5 after that game before waking up in the final month.

 

But yah nothing is guaranteed for this team and they have a better chance of being a 10 win team that just misses the playoffs or bounced in the first round then they do getting to a SB this year.

 

I liken it to the 88-89 Bills...went to the AFCCG in 88, didn't know how to mentally prepare for every teams best shot the year after and transition mentally from being the hunter to the hunted. In 1990 they figured it out...Kelly talked about it in his book at length, about the mental aspect of the game is so different as you go from the underdogs to the team that is expected to win...I think it is the same process this team had to go through before the light switch flipped on during halftime of the TB game. I expect them to take the NFL by storm this year.

Edited by Big Turk
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On 5/12/2022 at 8:20 PM, Rocky Landing said:

Am I the only one that's annoyed by all this "The Bills are going to the Super Bowl!!!" talk? I'm way too superstitious, and it's pissing me off. Everyone shut up already! Let's at least play a game or two!


rather the SB bluster than the annual Draft threads popping up in October every year… 😂

 

They might never win a ring, but damn it feels good to be in the thick of the hunt again…. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

I liken it to the 88-89 Bills...went to the AFCCG in 88, didn't know how to mentally prepare for every teams best shot the year after and transition mentally from being the hunter to the hunted. In 1990 they figured it out...Kelly talked about it in his book at length, about the mental aspect of the game is so different as you go from the underdogs to the team that is expected to win...I think it is the same process this team had to go through before the light switch flipped on during halftime of the TB game. I expect them to take the NFL by storm this year.

 

If that means this will be the first of four straight SB's again then I'm all for it, especially if they finally figure out how to win one of them this time.

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On 5/12/2022 at 4:20 PM, Rocky Landing said:

Am I the only one that's annoyed by all this "The Bills are going to the Super Bowl!!!" talk? I'm way too superstitious, and it's pissing me off. Everyone shut up already! Let's at least play a game or two!

 

Dude, would you really rather go back to the days of having these preseason simulations predict 7.2 wins?

 

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On 5/12/2022 at 10:46 PM, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:


Your not totally off.

 

2021 - Neither of the Top 2 Betting Favorites even made the Super Bowl.

 

2020 - Chiefs were #1 but it was Bucs #4 who won it.

 

2019 - Neither of the Top 2 Betting Favorites even made the Super Bowl.

 

So who knows.  In the end it’s really just about ego and humans who feel they need to have control over every situation.

 

 

 

 

When were they the favorites though? Around the same time or overall favorites through the year?

20 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:


7.2 is amazing 🤩 

 

4.5 was what was a decade ago. 

 

4.5 a decade ago we would have people arguing that they should be treating us more fairly and projecting us as better (we weren't much better).

 

in the end the talking heads will say what they will. As long as the players are humble and hungry we will be good.

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I appreciate Cynthia Frelund's approach to analysis based on her model. It is still just one model and models have flaws. None are predictive.

They are good at finding trends, correlations and 'most likely' outcomes.

 

I would be interested to see how accurate her model was in predicting actual outcomes for the past 5 years, versus other models and just gut feeling.

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