TSW Mock Draft 2.0 Poll - Who should the Bills take at 25?

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

You're making my point for me. From the Bills' perspective, unless you come out as a clear winner and offsetting losing the central figure and quarterback of your defense with a larger upgrade it's not worth making that trade. From another team's perspective, you're bringing in a guy who's going to have to learn a new system and almost instantly pay him a bunch of money when you could draft one and have the same "start from ground zero" effect in play.

 

You asked what I thought his trade value was, not what sensible deals would be for him. I happen to think the Bills have his trade value as extremely high. What does a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round pick get you that makes us better now aside from a cheaper salary? I just don't think that kind of thinking wins championships...

Making your point for you…..you say that as if I’m disagreeing with you.  I stated my point….which is the same as yours regarding what edmunds brings to this team, especially in 2022.  I stated as much.  Not sure what you’re getting at. I said that I agree….it’s not worth trading him for less than a 2nd/high 3rd.  If I could trade edmunds for a pick that would land me  Bush, Dean, Muma, anderson, Harris or Walker, I’d probably pull the trigger on it.  They may not be as good as 49 in 2022, but could possibly be better going forward and making 12M less a year playing a non premium position.  We can’t pay everyone.  Some positions will have to be reloaded and we’ll be losing some good players due to the salary cap.  Maybe not edmunds this year, but maybe soon.  He hasn’t shown the improvement that we should be laying a premium for.  
 

We definitely  disagree in what he might fetch in a trade.  You mentioned the Steelers and Houston possibly giving up a 1st and 2nd, while I don’t think there’s any chance of even landing a 1st rd pick.  
 

 

15 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

I could see something like that - my only problem with that is if they move to 7 - I think it is for Stingly or Hamilton and therefore I am not sure Bradberry and Edmonds are the deal.

 

I could really see that play out if Poyer replaced Edmunds in that trade case to give us Bradberry and then draft Hamilton.

 

I don’t see a LB worthy of that high a pick and if they move up for Stingly - I don’t think they want Bradberry in return.

 

It is very difficult scenario to play out.

 

 

Yeah I was thinking the same after I posted it.  That trade would yield us out choice of WRs.  Maybe we would trade down a bit and recoup a couple more picks and draft a WR.  Or stay @ 7 and draft Walker or possibly jermaine Johnson 

[glazeduck]

35 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Making your point for you…..you say that as if I’m disagreeing with you.  I stated my point….which is the same as yours regarding what edmunds brings to this team, especially in 2022.  I stated as much.  Not sure what you’re getting at. I said that I agree….it’s not worth trading him for less than a 2nd/high 3rd.  If I could trade edmunds for a pick that would land me  Bush, Dean, Muma, anderson, Harris or Walker, I’d probably pull the trigger on it.  They may not be as good as 49 in 2022, but could possibly be better going forward and making 12M less a year playing a non premium position.  We can’t pay everyone.  Some positions will have to be reloaded and we’ll be losing some good players due to the salary cap.  Maybe not edmunds this year, but maybe soon.  He hasn’t shown the improvement that we should be laying a premium for.  
 

We definitely  disagree in what he might fetch in a trade.  You mentioned the Steelers and Houston possibly giving up a 1st and 2nd, while I don’t think there’s any chance of even landing a 1st rd pick.  

The point being what we'd be asking for does not mesh with what other teams would be willing to give up. Also, I assume by "Bush" you're thinking Devin Lloyd?

 

I understand the contract angle, I do. You're right that we can't pay everyone (of the two, I happen to find Poyer a LOT more replaceable, but that's another discussion...) I don't feel like this front office is in a place where we can afford to take a step backwards at such a critical position -- especially if all you're bringing back is a late day 2 pick (which you'd effectively recoup as a comp pick if he signed elsewhere, anyway). If you want to pencil in a Muma or Anderson or Harris as the MLB in waiting, fine, draft them in the 3rd and have them back TE up. Problem is none of them have the same size/length/athleticism combo, so you're still not getting a 1 for 1 replacement. Rational minds can also argue evolving the defensive scheme with a new MLB, so that's certainly, possibly a thing, but also kind of untenable to debate in this discussion. 

 

So I come back to, if you're trading Edmunds, you have to offset losing him with greater gains elsewhere. I don't think even a 2 does that...

 

As the Saints and Patriots have shown us, contracts can continually be adjusted, funny money is real in the NFL, so I just don't think you can make such a massive decision with that as the basis.

[Virgil]

Does any Bills player start a conversation on this board better than Edmunds?

[glazeduck]

2 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Does any Bills player start a conversation on this board better than Edmunds?

 what's so funny is I feel like there's 4 or 5 others who are at minimum as worthy of such heated debates, but routinely skate, while TE takes just about every arrow from the board...

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, glazeduck said:

The point being what we'd be asking for does not mesh with what other teams would be willing to give up. Also, I assume by "Bush" you're thinking Devin Lloyd?

 

I understand the contract angle, I do. You're right that we can't pay everyone (of the two, I happen to find Poyer a LOT more replaceable, but that's another discussion...) I don't feel like this front office is in a place where we can afford to take a step backwards at such a critical position -- especially if all you're bringing back is a late day 2 pick (which you'd effectively recoup as a comp pick if he signed elsewhere, anyway). If you want to pencil in a Muma or Anderson or Harris as the MLB in waiting, fine, draft them in the 3rd and have them back TE up. Problem is none of them have the same size/length/athleticism combo, so you're still not getting a 1 for 1 replacement. Rational minds can also argue evolving the defensive scheme with a new MLB, so that's certainly, possibly a thing, but also kind of untenable to debate in this discussion. 

 

So I come back to, if you're trading Edmunds, you have to offset losing him with greater gains elsewhere. I don't think even a 2 does that...

 

As the Saints and Patriots have shown us, contracts can continually be adjusted, funny money is real in the NFL, so I just don't think you can make such a massive decision with that as the basis.

Yeah sorry, Lloyd. 
 

I agree Poyer is replaceable (as much as that’s my guy), but we might have to let both go for the sake of long term. 
 

I agree that it’s tough to “downgrade” at a position during a SB run.  It’s definitely not ideal but sometimes moves have to be made if the price is right.  
 

The comp pick isn’t guaranteed.  I would hope that we’ll be players for a major free agent every offseason now that we are a destination.  It only takes one big signing to cancel out his departure, leaving us with nada. Maybe signing a big free agent is wishful thinking, but if we don’t win the SB this year, I’d expect another big move or two.  If someone offered us a 2nd, I think we should take it.  If someone offered a 1st (or a 1+2 like mentioned) we’d be idiots to pass that up.  He’s good.  He’s not THAT good 
 

Most of those day 2-3  that I LBs mentioned are ultra athletic, long limbed and fast. Def not “as long limbed” as edmunds, but still have good size compared to most nfl MLBs.  Maybe I’m overestimating the prospects, but that’s how I feel after studying them.  Muma and Anderson especially. 
 

 

12 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Does any Bills player start a conversation on this board better than Edmunds?

Sorry

[Virgil]

8 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

 what's so funny is I feel like there's 4 or 5 others who are at minimum as worthy of such heated debates, but routinely skate, while TE takes just about every arrow from the board...

 

Wait, are we still mad at Dawson?  I thought we all loved him now

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

 what's so funny is I feel like there's 4 or 5 others who are at minimum as worthy of such heated debates, but routinely skate, while TE takes just about every arrow from the board...

Like who?

[GunnerBill]

Even Devin Lloyd who I think could if he develops be better than Edmunds within a couple of years is likely to be less effective than Tremaine in 2022. And it is an all in year for the Bills. I just don't see the sense in trading Edmunds in that scenario. 

[glazeduck]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Like who?

Dawkins is the primary name who comes to mind. Both Poyer and Hyde are 2 more that I could make arguments for. Literally the entire RB stable (I know they don't cost a lot, but they also don't do a lot -- I guess those discussions wouldn't be nearly as polarizing or interesting )... 

[NewEra]

Just now, glazeduck said:

Dawkins is the primary name who comes to mind. Both Poyer and Hyde are 2 more that I could make arguments for. Literally the entire RB stable (I know they don't cost a lot, but they also don't do a lot -- I guess those discussions wouldn't be nearly as polarizing or interesting )... 

I hear ya regarding poyer due to his current situation…..but he played lights out last season.  All pro >>>>>>>>> pro bowl.  He played better last year than Tremaine has ever played. Meanwhile he was the 13th highest paid safety. Similar to hyde. Not overpaid.  Not going to be overpaid.  Playing lights out…. Why would we be talking about trading them?  Poyers current situation has changed that thought process, but there was no reason to talk about him prior to now 

 

Dawkins is the 16th highest paid LT in the league.  He was awful to start the season coming off covid but played some of the best football of his career down the stretch.   He’s a vocal leader and part of the heartbeat of our locker room. There’s a big difference between replacing a MLB and a LT. Of the plauers you listed, I think he’s been worthy of the most criticism.  I wasn’t sure I wanted to resign him to a 15M+ contract, but considering how the market has evolved, he’s a fine deal. 
 

Our RBs have no trade value and won’t ever be paid anything worth being angry about.  The 75949 page Breece Hall thread says more about RB drama on this team than anything.  I don’t think any of our RBs will be here long term.  They’re just guys imo.  Easily replaceable. If motor is resigned to a 2M aav contract, I’d be happy with it.  

Edmunds is the lightning rod based on the potential of his next contract and his trade value. The other guys mentioned don’t have much of any trade value other than Dawkins imo….and he’s Josh’s LT.  
 

 

[glazeduck]

12 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I hear ya regarding poyer due to his current situation…..but he played lights out last season.  All pro >>>>>>>>> pro bowl.  He played better last year than Tremaine has ever played. Meanwhile he was the 13th highest paid safety. Similar to hyde. Not overpaid.  Not going to be overpaid.  Playing lights out…. Why would we be talking about trading them?  Poyers current situation has changed that thought process, but there was no reason to talk about him prior to now 

 

Edmunds is the lightning rod based on the potential of his next contract and his trade value. The other guys mentioned don’t have much of any trade value other than Dawkins imo….and he’s Josh’s LT.  
 

 

I don't disagree with any of this. My perspective just comes down to replicable roles and production. I don't think it's a coincidence that Hyde and Poyer went from fringy depth guys (neither who played a full-time S role before coming here) and turned into stars. They're kind of the opposite on my take on Edmunds, I guess. While they're fantastic players, I think our staff views them as more replaceable and in less critical roles. Put another way, if you asked McBeane who they felt they could find better 1:1 replacements for, I think they'd say the safeties over Edmunds.

 

And on Dawkins, I just find him to be exceedingly meh. Has some good moments, but for what we're paying I don't think he's anything exceptional. I've mentioned in the "Bills might trade a veteran to move up" thread, that he'd be the guy I'd look at using + 25 to move up and get one of the top rookies as a method of saving long-term. I think he's very replaceable.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

I don't disagree with any of this. My perspective just comes down to replicable roles and production. I don't think it's a coincidence that Hyde and Poyer went from fringy depth guys (neither who played a full-time S role before coming here) and turned into stars. They're kind of the opposite on my take on Edmunds, I guess. While they're fantastic players, I think our staff views them as more replaceable and in less critical roles. Put another way, if you asked McBeane who they felt they could find better 1:1 replacements for, I think they'd say the safeties over Edmunds.

 

And on Dawkins, I just find him to be exceedingly meh. Has some good moments, but for what we're paying I don't think he's anything exceptional. I've mentioned in the "Bills might trade a veteran to move up" thread, that he'd be the guy I'd look at using + 25 to move up and get one of the top rookies as a method of saving long-term. I think he's very replaceable.

 

@NewEra's point about Dion's salary is a good one though. 16th highest paid LT in AAV. He is better than a number of the guys above him. Value wise he is hard to knock even though I think there is some merit to the argument his play is a bit up and down. I personally still think the answer with Dion is to find a LT and slide Dion to guard for the back 9 of his career.

[glazeduck]

36 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

@NewEra's point about Dion's salary is a good one though. 16th highest paid LT in AAV. He is better than a number of the guys above him. Value wise he is hard to knock even though I think there is some merit to the argument his play is a bit up and down. I personally still think the answer with Dion is to find a LT and slide Dion to guard for the back 9 of his career.

I agree, which speaks to the quality of the roster, frankly. Not a lot of dead weight. I'm not being overly analytical with Dawkins, I'll be honest. I just feel like every time I focus on him, he's either whiffing on a block, giving up too much ground in pass-pro, making a stupid penalty or not doing a ton in the run game. This is picking nits though, I'm nowhere near calling him "bad", by any means.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Even Devin Lloyd who I think could if he develops be better than Edmunds within a couple of years is likely to be less effective than Tremaine in 2022. And it is an all in year for the Bills. I just don't see the sense in trading Edmunds in that scenario. 

 

 

I think there are a lot of folks looking at all the impending 2023 free agents and thinking that the Bills gotta' draft their replacements pronto!

 

In reality we are talking about:

 

MLB  (Edmunds)

Safety (Poyer)

TE (Knox)

RB (Singletary)

 

You could scarcely pick 4 easier positions to fill in an offseason.

 

They could throw some day 3 picks and a couple UDFA's at those positions in this draft.........and then still be able to come back next offseason and have another shot to find cheap replacements in UFA or in the draft if the 2022 crop doesn't look promising and if some or all of the established starters aren't re-signed.

 

The process on draft day should remain the same..........early picks on premium positions.

Edited April 20, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, glazeduck said:

 what's so funny is I feel like there's 4 or 5 others who are at minimum as worthy of such heated debates, but routinely skate, while TE takes just about every arrow from the board...

 

29 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

I agree, which speaks to the quality of the roster, frankly. Not a lot of dead weight. I'm not being overly analytical with Dawkins, I'll be honest. I just feel like every time I focus on him, he's either whiffing on a block, giving up too much ground in pass-pro, making a stupid penalty or not doing a ton in the run game. This is picking nits though, I'm nowhere near calling him "bad", by any means.

Then why this comment?  Seems like you’re being overly critical of posters being critical of the player that deserves it more than pretty much everyone.  There is clearly a valid talking point:  his production + value of his position in correlation with his contract going forward.  
 

There are certainly some posters who are way over the top and off base with their bashing.  I get any criticism of those folks….but the majority of the discussions that I’ve read here revolves around my talking point above.  
 

I guess this is what we complain about when there isn’t much to complain about.  @ScottLaw can attest to this.  He only bashes the same 2 things over and over and over and over nowadays!  Rejoice!

[glazeduck]

54 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 

Then why this comment?  Seems like you’re being overly critical of posters being critical of the player that deserves it more than pretty much everyone.  There is clearly a valid talking point:  his production + value of his position in correlation with his contract going forward.  
 

There are certainly some posters who are way over the top and off base with their bashing.  I get any criticism of those folks….but the majority of the discussions that I’ve read here revolves around my talking point above.  
 

I guess this is what we complain about when there isn’t much to complain about.  @ScottLaw can attest to this.  He only bashes the same 2 things over and over and over and over nowadays!  Rejoice!

A couple things...

 

1. My whole point is that most of Edmunds' critics aren't taking the proper context into account. 

2. I didn't think I was really criticizing anyone too harshly, just throwing out my perspective that's come from college coaching, working with scouts/GMs/coaches and other front-office types, and generally being around the game for a long time.

3. I think people are making WAY too big of a deal of his contract beyond this year. That's how middling teams operate. We're arguably THE favorites to win the super bowl, we need to act like it (and downgrading our most important defensive position because "future" isn't that.

4. Just trying to have conversation. These are the topics that I enjoy the most, so for me, this has been a fun conversation. Not trying to put anyone on blast or call anyone idiots, just trying to add to the discussion and understanding to folks on the board. I hope you haven't taken offense to my comments, certainly wasn't my point...

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

A couple things...

 

1. My whole point is that most of Edmunds' critics aren't taking the proper context into account. 

2. I didn't think I was really criticizing anyone too harshly, just throwing out my perspective that's come from college coaching, working with scouts/GMs/coaches and other front-office types, and generally being around the game for a long time.

3. I think people are making WAY too big of a deal of his contract beyond this year. That's how middling teams operate. We're arguably THE favorites to win the super bowl, we need to act like it (and downgrading our most important defensive position because "future" isn't that.

4. Just trying to have conversation. These are the topics that I enjoy the most, so for me, this has been a fun conversation. Not trying to put anyone on blast or call anyone idiots, just trying to add to the discussion and understanding to folks on the board. I hope you haven't taken offense to my comments, certainly wasn't my point...

1- 👍🏻 

2- 👍🏻

3- I think this is debatable.  It all depends on how they truly feel about Edmunds.  We don’t know how they feel about him and we won’t know how they feel about him until he gets paid.  Til that happens, for all we know, they are looking to trade him and they could be in love with another prospect in the draft.  Not that I think that’s the case, but if someone wants him and offers up a favorable trade, I could see it happening.  I just don’t believe a coach or GM would say anything disparaging about someone like Edmunds.  So just because we aren’t hearing it, doesn’t mean it’s not being discussed behind closed doors.  It’s not for our ears.  If there are hundreds or thousands of Bills fans that aren’t overly impressed with Edmunds, I don’t see why the FO couldn’t feel the same.  It’s possible.  It’s just not going to be discussed by this FO.  
4- 💯 - no offense taken at all.  Lots of respect for ya and I understand the context of the conversation.  

[Yantha]

After watching Beane's conference with media, one takeaway I have is that Beane feels the draft is top thin, and middle round heavy.  He said he wouldn't bet the farm on a first round player (and I think there might only be 20 or less first round-graded prospects).

 

So....  I guess that means he will "more likely" trade out of the first to get more second, third, fourth round picks.  I think that we also have arguably too many picks in that scenario and some picks might not even "win" a job on the 53 or PS.  

 

To me that means he would also try to trade back UP in middle rounds to go and get players he really wants as opposed to letting the board fall to him.

 

I'm betting on more middle round picks, and we may trade away a 7th and/or a 6th rounder to move up in the middle rounds.

 

5 solid picks when the dust settles.

 

Hopefully one or two that will earn significant starting time to improve the team, with the others adding needed depth at key positions.

[MrEpsYtown]

17 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

Wait, are we still mad at Dawson?  I thought we all loved him now

 

You mean Dion, the guard? And all of his three plays at guard his rookie year where he looked so amazing? 

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, Yantha said:

After watching Beane's conference with media, one takeaway I have is that Beane feels the draft is top thin, and middle round heavy. 

 

Yea. I think pretty much everyone who has looked at this draft in any detail feels that way.

 

I don't think there is a big drop off between a guy you'd get at #5 and a guy you'd get at #15 compared to previous years. I also don't think there is a big drop off between a guy you'd get at #25 and #45 whereas there might be in other years. 

 

Then there is a good rump of players in that 3rd and 4th round range. 

[Rochesterfan]

3 hours ago, Yantha said:

After watching Beane's conference with media, one takeaway I have is that Beane feels the draft is top thin, and middle round heavy.  He said he wouldn't bet the farm on a first round player (and I think there might only be 20 or less first round-graded prospects).

 

So....  I guess that means he will "more likely" trade out of the first to get more second, third, fourth round picks.  I think that we also have arguably too many picks in that scenario and some picks might not even "win" a job on the 53 or PS.  

 

To me that means he would also try to trade back UP in middle rounds to go and get players he really wants as opposed to letting the board fall to him.

 

I'm betting on more middle round picks, and we may trade away a 7th and/or a 6th rounder to move up in the middle rounds.

 

5 solid picks when the dust settles.

 

Hopefully one or two that will earn significant starting time to improve the team, with the others adding needed depth at key positions.

 

I disagree after listening to Sal and Beane talked.  Beane recognizes that the Bills are going to be hard pressed to get UDFAs to fill out the roster.  He told Sal last year - part of moving back was specifically to draft additional players because a drafted player is bound to come to help fill the roster.  
 

The Bills struggled last year with UDFAs - getting a very limited supply.

 

I understand you logic, but Beane basically told Sal they need the extra picks to fill the 90 man roster - they may lose a couple, but they have limited choices to get guys they want here.

 

I think they will move around, but in the end - I think they end of with 8+ draft picks and will still struggle to fill the roster to 90.  They will be about 18 short after the draft - even with 8 guys and they will get like 6-8 UDFAs based upon last year and the talent level on the roster - meaning they will be a good 10 players short.

 

If they trade down to 5 picks - you are 13 or so short - it becomes difficult to pick up that many legitimate players to fill a roster.

 

It is going to be an interesting draft.

 

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Rochesterfan

[Yantha]

2 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

They will be about 18 short after the draft - even with 8 guys and they will get like 6-8 UDFAs based upon last year and the talent level on the roster - meaning they will be a good 10 players short.

 

If they trade down to 5 picks - you are 13 or so short - it becomes difficult to pick up that many legitimate players to fill a roster.

 

It is going to be an interesting draft.

 

 

Wow I did not realise this.  Thanks for clarifying.