Career-worst single-game passer rating

[CincyBillsFan]

On 1/5/2022 at 11:03 AM, Shaw66 said:

Fan -  Thanks.  I think it's pretty clear from what you've posted that he was going to Diggs.  You can see that Diggs was heading to the open spot in the end zone.  Beasley was breaking open too, but he was in a more congested area.   I think the real give evidence, however, is the trajectory of the ball.  Where it was tipped, that ball was never coming down to Beasley.  In fact, if Allen were trying to throw to Beasley, he would have put the ball and waist level, and this throw was nowhere near that. 

 

I think you other point, which is something I said elsewhere, is the important point.   Allen connects on those miracle throws a lot.  This would have been just one more highlight-reel throw.  Josh just misjudged the defender, and the defender made a great play.   What makes Josh so great is that he makes that kind of play a lot; the occasional INT is the price you have to pay to let Josh dazzle you the other times.   Whether it's 95%, I don't know, but it's a lot.  I said it in comparison to Brett Favre, whose game was marked by the same trait.   He had a great arm, like Allen, and they share the same arm arrogance.   The arm arrogance is what makes them great.   

When watching the video you see Diggs slip and fall and then later another WR (not sure who - maybe Davis) slips and falls.  The footing really impacted the WR's on Sunday.

 

 

[Rocky Landing]

19 hours ago, FireChans said:

Woah woah woah, are you arguing that Josh had a better game than Matt Ryan did “passing?”

Not the entire game, no. But, I'll say this, I rewatched just the first quarter, and for the duration of that quarter, yes, Allen was the better passer. Ryan had a much better completion percentage, but all of his completions were on short throws, most behind the LOS. And Ryan threw incomplete on both of their third downs. Allen threw for more yards, had longer completions, and converted all of the Bills' third downs (three) through the air. And regarding his incompletions, he had to throw the ball away twice, and had five throws hit his receivers right in their hands. Matt Ryan also got sacked twice on passing downs. That is just the first quarter, sure. I'm not going to go back and scrutinize the rest of the QB play in that game, but suffice to say that in my opinion, Allen was the better passer for at least a good portion of that game.

 

And listen, a couple days ago, Joe B. of the Athletic gave Allen a grade "B" in that game. Would he have given him that grade if his passing was a solid, low "F" ? I don't think so. I mean, come on, how enlightening do you guys really think that number 17.0 is?

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Not the entire game, no. But, I'll say this, I rewatched just the first quarter, and for the duration of that quarter, yes, Allen was the better passer. Ryan had a much better completion percentage, but all of his completions were on short throws, most behind the LOS. And Ryan threw incomplete on both of their third downs. Allen threw for more yards, had longer completions, and converted all of the Bills' third downs (three) through the air. And regarding his incompletions, he had to throw the ball away twice, and had five throws hit his receivers right in their hands. Matt Ryan also got sacked twice on passing downs. That is just the first quarter, sure. I'm not going to go back and scrutinize the rest of the QB play in that game, but suffice to say that in my opinion, Allen was the better passer for at least a good portion of that game.

 

And listen, a couple days ago, Joe B. of the Athletic gave Allen a grade "B" in that game. Would he have given him that grade if his passing was a solid, low "F" ? I don't think so. I mean, come on, how enlightening do you guys really think that number 17.0 is?

 

 

An awful lot of his hitting guys in the hands and getting drops was because while lately his touch has gotten better and better, it about disappeared in that game. He was whipping the ball in even when he didn't have to, and on cold days if you do that, you'll get a lot of drops.

 

Agreed that Josh had parts of the game where he was better than Ryan. But again, just take out the five interceptions and Peterman actually passed pretty well in that game. He played very well for parts of it. Part of the game doesn't matter squat. If you want to evaluate a guy's passing game, it's really simple. You evaluate the passing game. You don't evaluate his passing in part of the game and leave out the good parts or the bad parts depending what POV you're selling.

 

And Joe B. was rating Allen's whole game. Including the running, which was excellent. He would likely have given a much lower ranking if he were only looking at the passing game.

 

Allen's a terrific QB, nobody with any sense argues that. But he had a bad game passing. The Bills showed that even when they couldn't count on Allen in the passing game, they could find a way to win. It was really great to see.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Thurman#1

[UKBillFan]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

An awful lot of his hitting guys in the hands and getting drops was because while lately his touch has gotten better and better, it about disappeared in that game. He was whipping the ball in even when he didn't have to, and on cold days if you do that, you'll get a lot of drops.

 

Agreed that Josh had parts of the game where he was better than Ryan. But again, just take out the five interceptions and Peterman actually passed pretty well in that game. He played very well for parts of it. Part of the game doesn't matter squat. If you want to evaluate a guy's passing game, it's really simple. You evaluate the passing game. You don't evaluate his passing in part of the game and leave out the good parts or the bad parts depending what POV you're selling.

 

And Joe B. was rating Allen's whole game. Including the running, which was excellent. He would likely have given a much lower ranking if he were only looking at the passing game.

 

Allen's a terrific QB, nobody with any sense argues that. But he had a bad game passing. The Bills showed that even when they couldn't count on Allen in the passing game, they could find a way to win. It was really great to see.

 

Though we won because of Josh's running game so, even though his passing was poor last week, the win was still down to him.

[Since1981]

At Tampa half they collectively realized that if Josh has to run, jump or fly…he has to. Held back at JAX. Mark Sanchez kept talking about his QB stats ratings—-says as much about Mr. Sanchez as Allen. Glad our boy is not a stat watcher. 

[FireChans]

On 1/6/2022 at 12:58 AM, Rocky Landing said:

Of course I read your post. I just don't happen to agree with it. And let's be clear-- you were responding to me, not the other way around.

 

"...small differences in passer rating, say the difference between an 85 and a 95, are not signficant"

In the Pats* game I referenced, Allen, with a lesser passer rating, was actually a significantly better passer than Mac Jones. And in a game where Matt Ryan had a much better passer rating than Allen, Ryan struggled to convert on third down, whereas Allen converted, through the air, several times, as well as a fourth down conversion, and a two point conversion. Those are just a few examples of context missing from the PR stat. In fact, with the exception of Allen's three INTs, which all happened over the course of four consecutive plays, I submit that Allen was the better passer for most of the game. 

 

Here's another comparison: in Nate Peterman's horrendous 5 INT game vs the Chargers back in 2017, he had a passer rating of 17.9. Think that and Allen's performances were of similar caliber? Not even remotely.

 

My takeaway? The passer rating as an average over the course of an entire season is useful. For use in evaluating a QB for a single game? It's worthy of being ignored.

 

 

 

 

6 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Not the entire game, no. But, I'll say this, I rewatched just the first quarter, and for the duration of that quarter, yes, Allen was the better passer. Ryan had a much better completion percentage, but all of his completions were on short throws, most behind the LOS. And Ryan threw incomplete on both of their third downs. Allen threw for more yards, had longer completions, and converted all of the Bills' third downs (three) through the air. And regarding his incompletions, he had to throw the ball away twice, and had five throws hit his receivers right in their hands. Matt Ryan also got sacked twice on passing downs. That is just the first quarter, sure. I'm not going to go back and scrutinize the rest of the QB play in that game, but suffice to say that in my opinion, Allen was the better passer for at least a good portion of that game.

 

And listen, a couple days ago, Joe B. of the Athletic gave Allen a grade "B" in that game. Would he have given him that grade if his passing was a solid, low "F" ? I don't think so. I mean, come on, how enlightening do you guys really think that number 17.0 is?

I mean, if you exclude all his bad plays, he didn't play all that bad lol.

 

I really don't know why folks are so hung up on this. Allen's passing numbers were really freaking bad. His output was really bad. His passer rating reflects that. It's working as intended. 

[CincyBillsFan]

7 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Not the entire game, no. But, I'll say this, I rewatched just the first quarter, and for the duration of that quarter, yes, Allen was the better passer. Ryan had a much better completion percentage, but all of his completions were on short throws, most behind the LOS. And Ryan threw incomplete on both of their third downs. Allen threw for more yards, had longer completions, and converted all of the Bills' third downs (three) through the air. And regarding his incompletions, he had to throw the ball away twice, and had five throws hit his receivers right in their hands. Matt Ryan also got sacked twice on passing downs. That is just the first quarter, sure. I'm not going to go back and scrutinize the rest of the QB play in that game, but suffice to say that in my opinion, Allen was the better passer for at least a good portion of that game.

 

And listen, a couple days ago, Joe B. of the Athletic gave Allen a grade "B" in that game. Would he have given him that grade if his passing was a solid, low "F" ? I don't think so. I mean, come on, how enlightening do you guys really think that number 17.0 is?

On the 4 TD drives Allen threw the ball very well converting a number of 3rd downs along the way.  Ryan benefited from a lot of YAC.  I'm to lazy to look it up but more then half of Ryan's passing yards had to be YAC.

 

 

[Rocky Landing]

 

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

An awful lot of his hitting guys in the hands and getting drops was because while lately his touch has gotten better and better, it about disappeared in that game. He was whipping the ball in even when he didn't have to, and on cold days if you do that, you'll get a lot of drops.

 

Agreed that Josh had parts of the game where he was better than Ryan. But again, just take out the five interceptions and Peterman actually passed pretty well in that game. He played very well for parts of it. Part of the game doesn't matter squat. If you want to evaluate a guy's passing game, it's really simple. You evaluate the passing game. You don't evaluate his passing in part of the game and leave out the good parts or the bad parts depending what POV you're selling.

 

And Joe B. was rating Allen's whole game. Including the running, which was excellent. He would likely have given a much lower ranking if he were only looking at the passing game.

 

Allen's a terrific QB, nobody with any sense argues that. But he had a bad game passing. The Bills showed that even when they couldn't count on Allen in the passing game, they could find a way to win. It was really great to see.

 

Woah, dude, you're kinda hitting a sore spot with me, here. I was at that game in Los Angeles. And, after spending a lot of money to watch historically bad football (from the 14th row by the 40 yard line, no less!) I have consistently maintained that those five interceptions only told half the story of how bad Late Nate was in that game. ..anyway...

 

I can't keep going back and forth disagreeing with you, when we're really not that far apart in the first place. I don't want to argue, just for the sake of arguing.  It is a fair point on how hard Allen was throwing the football. But, I have to say that in that first quarter, Motor's drop wasn't a rifle at all-- just a drop. Diggs' drop in the end zone absolutely should have been pulled in (from the slo-mo, looked more like a question of hand-placement-- certainly uncharacteristic of Diggs). The throw to Beasley was a cannon shot. But, that was the underneath route Beasley was running. It's a throw they've completed a thousand times, and the route required it. Beasley knew what was coming.

 

We're really not in a huge disagreement here. And I never said, or implied that Allen had a great day passing. And I'm obviously aware that Joe Bus was looking at his whole game, and "would likely have given a much lower ranking if he were only looking at the passing game." But, Thurman, two things: one, if he were only looking at the passing game, he still likely wouldn't have given him an "F" (a 17.0 would certainly imply an "F"!). And two, to say that Joe Bus was "looking at his whole game," is really implying that he was applying context to Allen's performance.

 

And that has been my point this entire discussion. As has been pointed out, all stats lack context, sure. But the passer rating is a collection of stats that eschews context. There are too many things the stat ignores (strength of pass rush, drops, throw-aways, situational awareness, check-downs, ability to avoid a sack, third, and fourth down conversions, length of pass, etc) to make it useful as a single game stat. Allen had a ton of these contextual variables in this game. Over the course of the season, I assume these variables average out between QBs, but for one game? That "career-worst single-game passer rating" does not come close to denoting his worst game passing. 

[Rocky Landing]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

I mean, if you exclude all his bad plays, he didn't play all that bad lol.

 

I really don't know why folks are so hung up on this. Allen's passing numbers were really freaking bad. His output was really bad. His passer rating reflects that. It's working as intended. 

"Hung up?" I have no idea what that even means.

 

We disagree on the efficacy of the passer rating as a single-game stat. I rewatched the game, and don't agree that Allen had a bottom-floor, Nate-Peterman-bad, career-worst day passing, as his PR would reflect.

 

And seriously, to "exclude all his bad plays, he didn't play all that bad lol." is a lot different than applying context to Allen's performance, but I'm pretty sure you know that. Let's just agree to disagree.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said:

"Hung up?" I have no idea what that even means.

 

We disagree on the efficacy of the passer rating as a single-game stat. I rewatched the game, and don't agree that Allen had a bottom-floor, Nate-Peterman-bad, career-worst day passing, as his PR would reflect.

 

And seriously, to "exclude all his bad plays, he didn't play all that bad lol." is a lot different than applying context to Allen's performance, but I'm pretty sure you know that. Let's just agree to disagree.

Applying context? I don’t understand. Tossing 3 picks in a row, including 1 to start the third Q after your other two led to points and allowed a terrible team to stay in the game and take the league is quite possibly the WORST context you could throw a pick in outside of a game-sealing pick with no time left.

 

Let me put this in context, what if Devin Singletary didn’t have a good day and the Bills lost. Would we be sitting here and saying, well Allen didn’t pass the ball that bad considering the context? No. 
 

let’s put it another way. If Josh wasn’t so dang effective running the ball, his game would have been HORRIFIC, especially in light of playing a piss poor team like the Falcons.

 

I would love to see what QB you believe had a worse performance than Allen passing but had a better passer rating . 

 

[Rocky Landing]

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Applying context? I don’t understand. Tossing 3 picks in a row, including 1 to start the third Q after your other two led to points and allowed a terrible team to stay in the game and take the league is quite possibly the WORST context you could throw a pick in outside of a game-sealing pick with no time left.

 

Let me put this in context, what if Devin Singletary didn’t have a good day and the Bills lost. Would we be sitting here and saying, well Allen didn’t pass the ball that bad considering the context? No. 
 

let’s put it another way. If Josh wasn’t so dang effective running the ball, his game would have been HORRIFIC, especially in light of playing a piss poor team like the Falcons.

 

I would love to see what QB you believe had a worse performance than Allen passing but had a better passer rating . 

 

To the bolded: clearly.

 

I already mentioned the Late Nate Peterman vs. Chargers game. But, if I were willing to really get into the weeds (I'm not) I'm quite sure I could find plenty of QB performances above 17.0 that were worse than Allen's, given context. Which only means that we disagree on the efficacy of the passer rating as a single-game stat. It's really no big deal.