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Patriot offensive demise exaggerated? Drive stats seem to say so...


Big Turk

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Harris and Burkhead are good.  Id take either one in a heartbeat over what we have at RB.  

 

Ehh...hard to say because our line is terrible at run blocking...let's not forget last year Singletary averaged well over 5 YPC...

 

I doubt either of those players would look so good if they were having to dodge multiple players 2 and 3 yards behind the LOS on half their handoffs.

 

As a pass catcher, yes Burkhead is far better than anything we have out of the backfield...but White is even better than he is in that regard...

Edited by matter2003
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16 hours ago, matter2003 said:

I have to say I was shocked looking at NFL offensive drive stat numbers. I expected the Bills to be near the top which they were(top 5 in many, top 10 in most others), but what I was not expecting to see were the Patriots ranked #3 in the NFL for  yards per drive(39.72), only trailing KC and GB, and #1 in the NFL in number of plays per drive(7.04).

 

Bills rank #6 with 38.90 yards per drive and #5 with 6.77 plays per drive.

 

We know they lack talent at the skill positions. Cam has been blah most games and the only real player they have as a threat is Harris. 

 

But yet they are still able to move the ball, even though they have turned it over a lot, where they rank near dead last in TO/drive. But that is what worries me a little...if they can stop turning it over, this can still be a dangerous team, even with virtually no skills position players. 

 

I don't believe they are going to win the division or even make the playoffs this year...too big of a hole and the AFC is too strong. But this team could be far more dangerous next year than some think even if they don't have great skill players....how have they been so effective at moving the ball? McDaniels seemingly is making the offense go with smoke and mirrors.

The ability to run the ball with Harris and Burkhead helps their cause

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13 hours ago, MJS said:

 

I disagree. NE does not have a good offense.

 

Yards per drive is directly related to field position, for one thing. If you have good special teams and get short fields from that and defensive turnovers, you may have a horrible yards per drive and yet still have a really good offense that scores a lot of points.

 

There's no way to isolate the offense completely. All phases of the game go together.

 

 

No, again, yards per drive is related to field position virtually not at all. On each drive yes, but that's not how the stat is compiled. It combines every drive, so there's virtually no impact from field position. You look at total possible earnable yards for offenses and it will be pretty close for all teams, particularly when looked at on a per drive basis.

 

Every year the teams with the best complimentary units have an average drive start around their own 31 yard line. Every year the teams with the worst complimentary unit have an average drive start around their own 23 yard-line. This is a miniscule difference, especially as the average NFL drive is somewhere around 20 yards.

 

And your defensive turnovers argument is also wrong. If your defense gets a lot of turnovers giving the offense field position and the offense scores a lot, that's a great thing ... for the team, but not particularly for the offense. If they get the ball on the three and score a TD, about 90% of that TD comes courtesy of the defense. If they get the ball on the six, get three straight sacks and score on a 55 yard field goal, scoring-based stats would indicate that the offense did a good job by scoring three points. Yay offense!! Scoring stats are far more team-related than yardage-related stats, which are almost completely unit-focused.

 

Beyond that, if your star CB intercepts a pass and runs it back for a pick six, scoring-based measures say, "Way to go offense. Nice job scoring seven there, offensive unit! Congrats on that, you probably have a good OL and a solid QB, offense!! Oh, and congrats also on that punt runback for a TD that you as an offense are also completely responsible for," says the points-based system. "A pick-six, a fumble run back for a TD, a kickoff runback TD, a punt runback TD and a blocked punt recovered in the end zone????? Wow, what a sensational offense this team has, as the 35 points scored in one game conclusively prove."

 

Yes, all phases of the game go together. No, not all statistical measures reflect that anywhere near as much as others do. Looking at yard-based measures almost completely eliminates the other phases. And looking at pre-drive stats evens out the effects between teams which had far fewer or more drives, which is often effected greatly by how good the other units of each team are.

Edited by Thurman#1
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