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8 games in, Offensive Sets analysis


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Article from Mark Gaughan, TBN about offensive sets the Bills are using, since I know that's of interest to some here:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/at-halfway-point-bills-lead-league-in-three-and-four-wide-receiver-sets-heres-why/article_2a24cd5e-1dee-11eb-b275-2b7b5dcd7e55.html

(Paywall, trial available 3 mos/$1.  I personally think well worth $1 for 12 weeks of Kubiak and Gaughan).

 

The Bills are using three or four wide receivers on the field an NFL-high 94.8% of their snaps in the first half of the season, according to Buffalo News charting. Last year, the rate of three and four wides was 72.9%.

 

It has worked well. The Bills rank 13th in yards gained (372 per game), up from 24th last year (335.8 per game). The Bills are 10th in passing yards (263.4 per game), up from 26th last season (204.8 per game). Josh Allen’s completion percentage is up from 58.8% to 67.1%. His passer rating is up from 85.3 to 102.4.

 

The Bills are using 10 personnel (four wideouts) on 18.2% of their snaps, second only to the Arizona Cardinals (21%), according to Sharp Football.

 

Vaughan points out: When are Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley not among the best 11 players on the Buffalo Bills’ offensive unit?

Obvious answer: Almost never.

 

but also that we've got rather a gap at the TE position with or without Dawson Knox:

In a perfect world, the Bills would have the added flexibility to power up with two tight ends against a defense that was vulnerable to power formations.But the tight end situation hasn’t been good enough to make it more attractive to Daboll than the spread formations. Part of the reason is second-year tight end Dawson Knox has missed four games due to injury. But while Knox and fellow tight end Tyler Kroft have been mostly capable, neither ranks in the top half of the league at the position. In other words, Beasley is far more valuable on the field as the third receiver than Kroft is as the second tight end, unless it’s a short-yardage or goal-line situation.

 

I dunno that in a short yardage situation, I might not rather see Beasley, myself.

 

https://twitter.com/SalSports/status/1324027093877985287?s=20

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There are a lot of ways to get it done. If you go 4 wide and spread them out there are a lot of short pass and run options that a jumbo 3 TE set doesn’t afford. At some level get the talent on the field and make a good call and don’t be to bound by traditional situational groupings.

 

we got more talented and are utilizing those strengths which is great.

Edited by NoSaint
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28 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

It is a shame that Knox is not developing into the player they had hoped he might be.  TE’s are critical in the short to mid game and that is what defenses are now giving to the Bills.

 

 

Knox is having a Robert Foster-esque fall this season.

 

They also seemed to have a potentially useful developmental player in Sweeney who has been injured.

 

I think in general you gotta' throw a few mid round picks at the TE position if you expect to find and develop them..........and they have used a lot of those type picks on trades and trade-ups so they really only have expended a quality pick on Knox so far.

 

It's funny when people try to act like mid round picks are expendable because the roster is fairly set.........TE is a position you gotta' throw a lotta' darts at if you expect to be above average at.

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I dunno that in a short yardage situation, I might not rather see Beasley, myself.

 

https://twitter.com/SalSports/status/1324027093877985287?s=20

Agree.  It's definitely been a disappointment not having Knox out there very much this year, especially considering how hopeful everyone was that he was going to blossom into the TE we all envisioned him becoming.  Unfortunately injuries have prevented him from doing that, and I'm definitely not ready to throw in the towel on him.  He did flash a few nice catches and runs, but unfortunately also had some critical drops.  I bet Daboll really wishes he had both Knox and Kroft out there to run those two TE sets.  But yeah, in those short yardage situations I'd much prefer Beasley on the bench.  

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