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CorkScrewHill

Fantasy Football comparison JA vs Lamar - with good non FF insights as well

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All football insights are fantasy football insights and vice versa.

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16 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Shhh you can't 'learn' accuracy, it comes and goes as it pleases

 

 

I get the sarcasm. But he's not wrong when he says it's a skill and it's hard to learn.

 

It is hard to learn. Not impossible, but hard. Some QBs have clearly improved themselves over the years in accuracy, and I'm sure you all know the usual suspects. Equally, though, every year in the draft there are a few guys who aren't very accurate and the  pundits and draftniks say it's in their mechanics and they can be improved. They may well be right that the mechanics are the key to the problems for a lot of these guys.

 

But a very very large majority of those guys who "can be improved," ... aren't.

 

Some can, and Allen himself appears to be one of them. But he's right when he says it's hard to learn.

 

Oh, and anyone who says that completion percentage and accuracy are not the same thing ... is dead-on correct.

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, thebandit27 said:


Not only could he become more accurate; he already has. Significantly so.

 

And again: if 60% matters so much, just ask his targets to improve from worst in the NFL to even average in terms of drop percentage and he’s there in 2019. Also, since we talked Cam, he (in your words) carried his team to the Super Bowl on the back of 59.8% completions.

 

But all of that is secondary to the fact that, yes, accuracy is often improved in the NFL. Drew Brees entered the league as a 61% passer. He became the most accurate QB ever. And he’s hardly a unique case. From Ryan to Stafford to Goff to many others, QBs often get more accurate.

 

 

60% doesn't matter so much. It's a convenient benchmark, but what matters is accuracy. And while you should absolutely not judge accuracy using only completion percentage ... if you do reduce Allen's drop artificially to NFL average, what you get is a QB who is in the mid-30s in completion percentage.

 

Yeah, it's fractionally above 60%, but that doesn't make it actually good.

 

And again, no, there are NOT a lot of guys who have improved accuracy. Some, no question about it. But not a lot. And Brees isn't one. In college he was already considered deadly accurate, though not so much on long balls. His negatives were his height, having taken few direct snaps and the usual college to pro development worries. Brees' problems his first couple of years in the pros weren't about accuracy so much as reading defenses, quick decision making and generally getting used to the far more complex pro game, not to mention the lack of talent SD had at the skill positions when he was finally put in in his second year.

 

Plenty of guys improve their completion percentages but not many have significantly improved their accuracy.

 

Agreed that Allen appears to already be one of those guys who can improve and has. How much will be a question, but it's certainly hopeful that he already has. And agreed about Cam also, he shows it's possible to be a very good QB even with accuracy problems, but he also shows that guys like that need a lot of things to go right at the same time. It's hard for guys like that to make their teams consistently competitive at the highest level. But if you are going to try, it helps if you've got a defense that is consistently excellent, and it sure looks like McD knows how to do this.

Edited by Thurman#1

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18 hours ago, thebandit27 said:


Wait, I’m confused as to why argument you’re making...

 

I feel like this falls into the tried and true “accuracy can’t be improved except for when it can” category.

 

The article was interesting, and informative in a lot of ways. But to this point, is the take-away for how to improve accuracy this = Shorter passes? More passes of 10 or less yards incorporated into the offense? . . . The quickest way to improve accuracy, call more dink-and-dunk plays. Brady has lived on that for years in NE. With SIngletary (and maybe Moss), and hopefully the development of Knox, I think the Bills have room to really improve in this aspect of their offense. And, wouldn't more success here open up opportunities in the deeper game? . . . Go short Josh, you win on many levels.

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4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

60% doesn't matter so much. It's a convenient benchmark, but what matters is accuracy. And while you should absolutely not judge accuracy using only completion percentage ... if you do reduce Allen's drop artificially to NFL average, what you get is a QB who is in the mid-30s in completion percentage.

 

Yeah, it's fractionally above 60%, but that doesn't make it actually good.

 

And again, no, there are NOT a lot of guys who have improved accuracy. Some, no question about it. But not a lot. And Brees isn't one. In college he was already considered deadly accurate, though not so much on long balls. His negatives were his height, having taken few direct snaps and the usual college to pro development worries. Brees' problems his first couple of years in the pros weren't about accuracy so much as reading defenses, quick decision making and generally getting used to the far more complex pro game, not to mention the lack of talent SD had at the skill positions when he was finally put in in his second year.

 

Plenty of guys improve their completion percentages but not many have significantly improved their accuracy.

 

Agreed that Allen appears to already be one of those guys who can improve and has. How much will be a question, but it's certainly hopeful that he already has. And agreed about Cam also, he shows it's possible to be a very good QB even with accuracy problems, but he also shows that guys like that need a lot of things to go right at the same time. It's hard for guys like that to make their teams consistently competitive at the highest level. But if you are going to try, it helps if you've got a defense that is consistently excellent, and it sure looks like McD knows how to do this.


The basic premise laid out in your first paragraph isn’t true.

 

Allen was 21st in on-target percentage in 2019 (Ahead of both Brady and Rodgers for the record). Good enough? No. Needs to improve? Yes. As bad as people claim? Nope. And that’s the point I keep driving home: people too often shoot from the hip regarding his accuracy and don’t bother to look at the data:

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, CSBill said:

 

The article was interesting, and informative in a lot of ways. But to this point, is the take-away for how to improve accuracy this = Shorter passes? More passes of 10 or less yards incorporated into the offense? . . . The quickest way to improve accuracy, call more dink-and-dunk plays. Brady has lived on that for years in NE. With SIngletary (and maybe Moss), and hopefully the development of Knox, I think the Bills have room to really improve in this aspect of their offense. And, wouldn't more success here open up opportunities in the deeper game? . . . Go short Josh, you win on many levels.

If it was that simple everyone would do it. It is up to the coaches to call the right plays to get someone open short. It is interesting when I watch the Bills and compare with watching other teams.

 

In Buffalo it almost always looks like all the receivers are blanketed, rarely do I see someone with a couple yards of separation. On other teams, I’ll see guys on short routes just running free with semi-regularity. Daboll only seems to get guys open on gadget plays. Where are our bread and butter plays and why do other teams always seem to know where our receivers are going? It seems like Josh is forced to have to make more difficult throws than QBs on other teams (even on short passes) due to the predictability on offense.

Edited by Troll Toll
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1 hour ago, CSBill said:

 

The article was interesting, and informative in a lot of ways. But to this point, is the take-away for how to improve accuracy this = Shorter passes? More passes of 10 or less yards incorporated into the offense? . . . The quickest way to improve accuracy, call more dink-and-dunk plays. Brady has lived on that for years in NE. With SIngletary (and maybe Moss), and hopefully the development of Knox, I think the Bills have room to really improve in this aspect of their offense. And, wouldn't more success here open up opportunities in the deeper game? . . . Go short Josh, you win on many levels.

You improve completion percentage with shorter passes theoretically, not accuracy.  Thurman is absolutely correct in that accuracy and completion percentage are two separate things.

 

Some continue to obsess on this 60% thing, and I have done the math countless times on this board to show that the difference between his 58+ % and 60% is statistically meaningless.  But people continue to obsess for some reason.

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11 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

If it was that simple everyone would do it. It is up to the coaches to call the right plays to get someone open short. It is interesting when I watch the Bills and compare with watching other teams.

 

In Buffalo it almost always looks like all the receivers are blanketed, rarely do I see someone with a couple yards of separation. On other teams, I’ll see guys on short routes just running free with semi-regularity. Daboll only seems to get guys open on gadget plays. Where are our bread and butter plays and why do other teams always seem to know where our receivers are going? It seems like Josh is forced to have to make more difficult throws than QBs on other teams (even on short passes) due to the predictability on offense.

 

Totally agree. I was going to add the play-calling aspect to my first post, but for length, I did not. Yes, a huge part of an effective short game is good play design and play-calling. Daboll can certainly help his QB by better work in this area.

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11 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

If it was that simple everyone would do it. It is up to the coaches to call the right plays to get someone open short. It is interesting when I watch the Bills and compare with watching other teams.

 

In Buffalo it almost always looks like all the receivers are blanketed, rarely do I see someone with a couple yards of separation. On other teams, I’ll see guys on short routes just running free with semi-regularity. Daboll only seems to get guys open on gadget plays. Where are our bread and butter plays and why do other teams always seem to know where our receivers are going? It seems like Josh is forced to have to make more difficult throws than QBs on other teams (even on short passes) due to the predictability on offense.

Between Brown and Beasley neither are going to win a physical battle and get wide open. That's why having a guy like Diggs will open up the offense a ton.

 

Brown wins on speed and Beasley on quickness but neither is going to beat solid man coverage consistently because they aren't strong enough. Brown's route vs Peters against Baltimore at the end of the game is a good example. They aren't physical enough to get leverage on DBs. That's a drag on completion percentage. 

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3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Between Brown and Beasley neither are going to win a physical battle and get wide open. That's why having a guy like Diggs will open up the offense a ton.

 

Brown wins on speed and Beasley on quickness but neither is going to beat solid man coverage consistently because they aren't strong enough. Brown's route vs Peters against Baltimore at the end of the game is a good example. They aren't physical enough to get leverage on DBs. That's a drag on completion percentage. 

Yeah, I’m really interested to see how much better Diggs makes the other guys. Part of me is still nervous that Daboll’s playcalling will still leave us with tightly covered receivers, even with Diggs.

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