If the Bills had had Diggs in 2019

[Shaw66]

26 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

saying that isn the Bills had Diggs they absolutely without a doubt win the Texans game?  No, you were not.

 

The fact is that after the Texans game, virtually every Bills fan, including Brandon Beane, was saying the Bills need help at receiver.   They weren't saying the Bills need help at QB, they weren't saying the Billsneed help at DT.   The only thing Bills fans were saying almost in unison was "the Bills need a receiver."   

 

So, no, at the end of the Texans game I didn't say "the Bills would have won if they had had Diggs."   But I was saying "the Bills need a receiver," and if you'd asked me if Diggs would do, I would have said "are you kidding?" 

 

And I would have said, and I'll say today, the Bills would have beaten the Texans with Diggs in the lineup.  He would have had the same kind of impact on the game that Hopkins had.   A big catch or two, some other nice completions, draw the attention of the defense.   The guy is a special talent, and it's amazing to think that people can't see how that kind of talent impacts every game.  

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

while odds are he performs better you just don’t know. Is Diggs double covered and josh forces it in for an INT instead of an incompletion?

 

im 100% on board we are a better team with him. I’m not full steam on picking plays to flip and saying “see, that simple” essentially for why we would definitely win with him. 

Of course nothing is for sure, and all sorts of things could have happened to allow the Texans still to win.   But if you're going to pick one position (other than QB) where a superior talent was likely to change the outcome of the game, it's probably wide out.   As others have said, Allen spent the fourth quarter looking for a receiver to make a play.  Diggs is a playmaker.  

[Doc]

41 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

LOL ok doc...in "yards per game" he was 11th.

 

In the games where he didn't;'t have to complete with Thielen for targets, he had 2 games over 80 yards.  Thielen by the way, in the 2 previous seasons, was an ACTAUL top 10 WR in yards and catches. 

 

Again, the bolded part I didn't say.  But keep repeating and you'll get that big bad straw man!   Were you really watching the Vikings playoffs and saying that isn the Bills had Diggs they absolutely without a doubt win the Texans game?  No, you were not.

 

2017 Vikings-Saints game is calling....and 2019 Vikings-Saint game answers and says:  "what do you want?".

 

Do the math again, WEO.  His final season stats put him at 15th among wide receivers (hint: not including TEs) with 1,130 yards, but that was in 15 games, which works out to 1,205 for the season.  Only 3 wide receivers had more so he's obviously below them.  Of the guys from 4-14, 7 played a full 16 game season.  Hence...  

 

And nice try but in the 5 games that Diggs played and Thielen was out (they were both out for the season finale), Diggs had over 92 yards in 3 of them and he had 49 in another.

 

And did I watch that game and say I wanted Diggs specifically?  No.  But I did say that someone better would have won that game.  Diggs is that someone. 

 

They won the 2019 Vikings-Saints game.  So...

[Cripple Creek]

On 4/6/2020 at 12:46 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

I was starting my sophomore year in college all through training camp at receiver.  Having possibly the best camp of anyone on the team.  Spectacular catches.  Coaches pulling me aside, telling me the offense is going through me and I was going to have 100 catches easy.  Well, we had a play that was an automatic audible.  Well, I completely blanked and ran the same play wrong 3 times in a row!! After that, I was Zay Jones.  Started dropping everything and lost my starting job.  Ended up switching to defense and while I had some moments there, it wasn’t the same.  If that play doesn’t happen in practice, I probably dominate.  Eventually I get drafted (maybe by the Bills who take a chance on a local kid).  I become good friends with Gronk, offseason hangout buddies in WNY.  Gronk takes me to a Hollywood party.  I meet Margot Robbie.  We fall madly in love.  Get married, 2 kids, 2 dogs, beachfront place in Malibu.  I’m earning millions but my wife makes even more than me! Eventually, things happen with our Colombian nanny and Margot and I divorce.  I struggle post nfl career to not being constantly praised and with my injuries, I get hooked on pills because weed is the devil’s lettuce.  Well a couple of prison stints later, I become clean and go on talk shows.  The networks notice and I get a Romo type deal to be a commentator.  And then at a SB party, I met a 25 year old upcoming pop star and boom, 2nd marriage and 4 more kids.  Life is great. ?

Have you recently turned yourself into a cynical old man sounding SOB or have you always been that way but you hid it from us for a time?

[Mr. WEO]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Do the math again, WEO.  His final season stats put him at 15th among wide receivers (hint: not including TEs) with 1,130 yards, but that was in 15 games, which works out to 1,205 for the season.  Only 3 wide receivers had more so he's obviously below them.  Of the guys from 4-14, 7 played a full 16 game season.  Hence...  

 

And nice try but in the 5 games that Diggs played and Thielen was out (they were both out for the season finale), Diggs had over 92 yards in 3 of them and he had 49 in another.

 

And did I watch that game and say I wanted Diggs specifically?  No.  But I did say that someone better would have won that game.  Diggs is that someone. 

 

They won the 2019 Vikings-Saints game.  So...

 

 

While ignoring Diggs (to his nationally televised displeasure).  

 

It wouldn't "work out to 1205 for the season" if he was posting 49, 25, 19 per game.

 

Yes, if you eliminate the TEs that were better receivers last year,  Diggs moves hip from 17 to 15 in yards.  They only count the stats you accumulated, doc, not the ones doc says they "work out to"...

 

Some better tacklers would have won that game.  I'll agree with you there..

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

41 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The fact is that after the Texans game, virtually every Bills fan, including Brandon Beane, was saying the Bills need help at receiver.   They weren't saying the Bills need help at QB, they weren't saying the Billsneed help at DT.   The only thing Bills fans were saying almost in unison was "the Bills need a receiver."   

 

So, no, at the end of the Texans game I didn't say "the Bills would have won if they had had Diggs."   But I was saying "the Bills need a receiver," and if you'd asked me if Diggs would do, I would have said "are you kidding?" 

 

And I would have said, and I'll say today, the Bills would have beaten the Texans with Diggs in the lineup.  He would have had the same kind of impact on the game that Hopkins had.   A big catch or two, some other nice completions, draw the attention of the defense.   The guy is a special talent, and it's amazing to think that people can't see how that kind of talent impacts every game.  

 

He is a big talent and already the best guy in the Bills roster.

 

But did that happen in his own playoff games?  TheVikings didn't bother with him in the Saints game and won.   He had 2 catches all game against the 49ers and a TD in a blowout loss.  4 catches.  2 games. 

 

But he was going to be the special sauce for the Bills playoff game guaranteeing a win?  I don 't get that.  It's possible, but no one can claim it would have happened without question.  

[CookieG]

On 4/5/2020 at 9:45 PM, Happy Gilmore said:

 

It's really not a schtick, but merely pointing out that Josh had real problems with longer throws where he routinely overthrew his receivers.  The cause for this is up for debate.

 

If we're talking about short and medium (up to 20 yards) having Diggs would have helped others get open.  One thing I don't want to see this coming season is Diggs used as a decoy by Daboll to try and get his boy Foster going.  I want Diggs to be used like the weapon he is.  Maybe unnecessary worrying on my part, but wanted to bring that up.

 

Going back to the longer throws, if Josh can get his accuracy squared away, Diggs (in conjunction with John Brown) will stretch the field which will benefit all of the receivers.

no, its not a schtick at all and it downplays the importance that the deep game is to Diggs' overall success.

 

He might have been the premier deep threat in the game last year. He led the league in 40+ yard receptions and from what I've seen, they weren't 10-15 yard throws that he took to the house.

 

How important was his deep game?

 

By my count, it accounted for over 500 receiving yards and 4 of his 5 TD's. (not including a bomb he caught in the SF playoff game).

 

Take away his deep catches last year and you have a pretty pedestrian 600+ yards.

 

Watching his highlight reel, tbh...Allen of 2019 misses on most of those throws.

 

 

 

Why? Because he was missing on these throws most of the year. If Brown isn't able to run under them, Diggs won't either.

 

To me, the best offseason move I've seen is that Allen is spending time with his QB guru and is specifically working on that part of his game.

 

Unless he improves his deep game, you are wasting the talents of 2 talented WRs.

[Doc]

46 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

While ignoring Diggs (to his nationally televised displeasure).  

 

It wouldn't "work out to 1205 for the season" if he was posting 49, 25, 19 per game.

 

Yes, if you eliminate the TEs that were better receivers last year,  Diggs moves hip from 17 to 15 in yards.  They only count the stats you accumulated, doc, not the ones doc says they "work out to"...

 

Some better tacklers would have won that game.  I'll agree with you there..

 

Cousins only targeted him 3 times in that game.  Like I've been saying, you can't catch what's not thrown your way...

 

Don't get bogged-down in minutiae.  I said "yards/game" initially, and then used the extrapolated 1,205 yards to make the yards/game calculation quicker.  If a player had fewer than 1205 yards and played a full 16 games, Diggs moved up a notch.

 

And the discussion was wide receivers.  But if you want to include TEs and even Darren Waller's aberration/career year, he's still 9th.

 

Lots of things would have won that game.  Better WR play was definitely one of them.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Doc

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

im 100% on board we are a better team with him. I’m not full steam on picking plays to flip and saying “see, that simple” essentially for why we would definitely win with him. 

 

I generally agree, I'm not trying to over simplify things. Football is too complicated to hypothetically flip plays that easily. And I'm not going to retroactively increase our win total or anything like that. But I think the playoff game in particular was one where our offense was let down by the receivers more than anything else. If you add Diggs, irrespective of flipping plays you now have a receiver on the field that is known for consistency. It also would mean Brown would have had more favorable coverage and other trickle down effects. Allen might not have felt the need to force things in the 2nd half if we took a more commanding lead in the 1st half. So I do believe that even if Allen doesn't progress at all, solely the addition of Diggs takes us from a wildcard loser to a wildcard winner. To become legitimate championship contenders Allen will need to take the next step too.

[DuckyBoys]

lets also remember Diggs played in a  conservative rushing based offense  Vikings had one of the fewest pass attempts in the nfl last year  Kirk Cousins was not squeezing balls into get him involved.  Saying he's not a top 10 wr based just on stats is not giving the man credit  Go watch some tape, he's pretty damned good

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

As an aside, I think you're unfair to Duke.  He wasn't a CFL castoff.   He led the league; he was a CFL graduate, not a drop out.   Still, that doesn't change the fact that he wasn't an impact player in 2019.  

 

Nothing against Duke but he will have trouble making a roster this year. He was a fun story. But it turns out his hands aren't quite as good as advertised. If he catches that corner pass in the endzone against Houston I'd be rooting for him to make the team. If he can't make that catch and he has well below average athleticism he just isn't an NFL player. But this is where Diggs has the cascade effect. Assuming our receivers stay healthy we won't be fielding bottom of the barrel receivers for any snaps this year. I'm a big believer that adding top end talent helps your second tier talent shine. I wouldn't be surprised to see John Brown hit the same receiving yards this year.

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

lets also remember Diggs played in a  conservative rushing based offense  Vikings had one of the fewest pass attempts in the nfl last year  Kirk Cousins was not squeezing balls into get him involved.  Saying he's not a top 10 wr based just on stats is not giving the man credit  Go watch some tape, he's pretty damned good

 

Yeah.  Cousins was something like 2nd-lowest (behind Jackson) among full-time starters.  And as I showed above, Diggs is top-10 based on per game stats.

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

The fact is that after the Texans game, virtually every Bills fan, including Brandon Beane, was saying the Bills need help at receiver.   They weren't saying the Bills need help at QB, they weren't saying the Billsneed help at DT.   The only thing Bills fans were saying almost in unison was "the Bills need a receiver."   

 

So, no, at the end of the Texans game I didn't say "the Bills would have won if they had had Diggs."   But I was saying "the Bills need a receiver," and if you'd asked me if Diggs would do, I would have said "are you kidding?" 

 

And I would have said, and I'll say today, the Bills would have beaten the Texans with Diggs in the lineup.  He would have had the same kind of impact on the game that Hopkins had.   A big catch or two, some other nice completions, draw the attention of the defense.   The guy is a special talent, and it's amazing to think that people can't see how that kind of talent impacts every game.  

I agree.  Its not 1 + 1 = 2 with adding Diggs wins us more games.  The lack of a premier talent at Wr really only showed up a few times.  I would say both NE games, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and in the playoffs.  To be a contender a legit number 1 wr was a nessecity.  Will Diggs lead the league in Tds, yards, catches?  Probaly not.  Can he ruitenly beat press man.  His pressence helps the other wrs and weapons by being a lower priority to stop, thereby presenting them with more favorable matchups.

[C.Biscuit97]

On 4/6/2020 at 4:45 PM, Mr. WEO said:

 

The Vikings scored 10 points.  Bills scored almost twice that.

 

Assuming one more WR would have been the difference between winning and losing that game is not "patently absurd"?  Come on, doc.  

Yeah, this is kinda of insane.  What if the Texans didn’t trade Clowney??? What if Watt was fully healthy??? What if the Titans didn’t have an awful kicker?  What if OJ didn’t go over to Nicole’s house?
 

i mean it’s the offseason.  But you would drive yourself crazy with all this stuff. 

2 hours ago, DuckyBoys said:

lets also remember Diggs played in a  conservative rushing based offense  Vikings had one of the fewest pass attempts in the nfl last year  Kirk Cousins was not squeezing balls into get him involved.  Saying he's not a top 10 wr based just on stats is not giving the man credit  Go watch some tape, he's pretty damned good

Cousins had 4,300 and 30 tds the year before.  Diggs is one of the best route runners in the nfl and a very good receiver.  We are definitely overrating him a bit though.  Great addition no doubt though.  I just wish it would have be Hopkins.

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah, this is kinda of insane.  What if the Texans didn’t trade Clowney??? What if Watt was fully healthy??? What if the Titans didn’t have an awful kicker?  What if OJ didn’t go over to Nicole’s house?
 

i mean it’s the offseason.  But you would drive yourself crazy with all this stuff.

 

That's a big part of why we're here: speculation.  If all we did was just talk about what happened, it would be a boring place.

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

That's a big part of why we're here: speculation.  If all we did was just talk about what happened, it would be a boring place.

True.  

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 

But he was going to be the special sauce for the Bills playoff game guaranteeing a win?  

Oh, for Pete's sake.   Nobody's guaranteeing a win.   We're just having a conversation, and almost everyone can see what's plainly obvious - a receiver with excellent ability to get open on short routes, with excellent deep speed and with excellent ability to win 50-50 balls was probably the single biggest improvement the Bills could have used against Houston.   It's not that hard. 

 

You want me to imagine all the things that could still have gone wrong.  I could do that, but it would be a colossal waste of time.   You can spend time on it if you'd like.   So sure, maybe he'll get a bad case of BO and won't be permitted in the receiver room, or maybe he won't like beef on weck and the fans will boo him and he'll give everything the bird.   Maybe he will be unhappy because he isn't getting enough targets, maybe he can't play in the cold, maybe, maybe, maybe.  

 

All we're trying to do here is talk about what kind of impact Diggs is likely to have on the Bills offense.   And the answer, whatever you may think, is that there's a good chance he will have a significant positive impact, because he is a proven, quality NFL receiver in the prime of his career.   

 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Nothing against Duke but he will have trouble making a roster this year. He was a fun story. But it turns out his hands aren't quite as good as advertised. If he catches that corner pass in the endzone against Houston I'd be rooting for him to make the team. If he can't make that catch and he has well below average athleticism he just isn't an NFL player. But this is where Diggs has the cascade effect. Assuming our receivers stay healthy we won't be fielding bottom of the barrel receivers for any snaps this year. I'm a big believer that adding top end talent helps your second tier talent shine. I wouldn't be surprised to see John Brown hit the same receiving yards this year.

I agree with all of this.   Williams did disappoint last season, especially on the contested catches.  That's where I thought he could excel.  It's also clear he disappointed because he couldn't work his way onto the field.   He just never showed enough to contribute.   

 

And I agree about Diggs' impact.  We thought Foster, McKenzie and Williams were on the hotseat last season.   This season their roster spots are in big trouble.   Each of them has to add some real value somewhere, because they aren't likely to be critical to the passing game.   I think McKenzie has shown he's limited as a receiver (which is different from his ability on the jet sweep), Foster's been limited all around except maybe special teams.   Williams wasn't able to add value anywhere.   Diggs' arrival sent a message to all three of them - get better or move on.

[DuckyBoys]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with all of this.   Williams did disappoint last season, especially on the contested catches.  That's where I thought he could excel.  It's also clear he disappointed because he couldn't work his way onto the field.   He just never showed enough to contribute.   

 

And I agree about Diggs' impact.  We thought Foster, McKenzie and Williams were on the hotseat last season.   This season their roster spots are in big trouble.   Each of them has to add some real value somewhere, because they aren't likely to be critical to the passing game.   I think McKenzie has shown he's limited as a receiver (which is different from his ability on the jet sweep), Foster's been limited all around except maybe special teams.   Williams wasn't able to add value anywhere.   Diggs' arrival sent a message to all three of them - get better or move on.

 

 

I hope the Bills carry a wr #4, wr #5  who can contribute besides just special teams this year

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, DuckyBoys said:

 

 

I hope the Bills carry a wr #4, wr #5  who can contribute besides just special teams this year

At least a #4. Not sure he's on the roster today.  There's a limit to how many jet sweeps you can run.