The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Gary M]

11 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

how so?  its how it works   

 

1 person spreads to 2 people , 2 spread it to 4  etc 

 

or did I mis-read your intent?  

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Worthless? 

 

You do understand the term exponentially?  

 

Exponential growth in a finite environment. Bacteria grow by division so that 1 bacterium becomes 2, the 2 divide to give 4, the 4 divide to give 8, etc

2 minutes ago, Gary M said:

 

A simple mis-read would be sufficient 

 

but since I'm labeled a liberal   you had to go there. 

 

 

[Gary M]

1 minute ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Worthless? 

 

You do understand the term exponentially?  

 

Exponential growth in a finite environment. Bacteria grow by division so that 1 bacterium becomes 2, the 2 divide to give 4, the 4 divide to give 8, etc

 

A simple mis-read would be sufficient 

 

 

What fun would that be?

[WEATHER DOT COM]

5 minutes ago, LB3 said:

You do understand why this stat is worthless, right? 

 

I understand why you think that.

 

However in reality, when you look at states opening and closing, more cases extend the shutdowns, and fewer cases ease the shutdowns. 

[LB3]

7 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Worthless? 

 

You do understand the term exponentially?  

 

Exponential growth in a finite environment. Bacteria grow by division so that 1 bacterium becomes 2, the 2 divide to give 4, the 4 divide to give 8, etc

 

4 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

I understand why you think that.

 

However in reality, when you look at states opening and closing, more cases extend the shutdowns, and fewer cases ease the shutdowns. 

We're a month and a half out from protests, riots and places reopening and we're testing at a much higher rate.

Edited July 23, 2020 by LB3

[Gary M]

Just now, LB3 said:

 

 

And I will believe that when this stops happening.

 

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/508270-connecticut-discovers-at-least-90-false-positive-coronavirus-tests

 

https://www.newsday.com/news/health/covid19-false-positives-coronavirus-long-island-nassau-suffolk-1.47101663

 

https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-false-positive/289-e88acbc3-b15f-4d54-a7c7-b157b6b6384e

[shoshin]

2 hours ago, Reality Check said:

 

 

That's because your propaganda is weak.

 

You have one agenda, and it is weak.

 

A year from now, I doubt that you will have the nerve to defend your BS spread across over 1000 pages of maybe maybe maybe, but do what the government tells you because you need to be afraid.

 

Say what you will, but it will continue to be predictable and rooted in seeding more fear for the purpose of scaring people into taking a vaccine that will simply not work.

 

Cue the anti-science drivel from Mr. "I still Don't know what's going on after all of this time".

 

With all the fat bastards at the supermarkets and fast food chains stuffing their faces with crap and industrial strength poison, I am supposed to believe that we destroyed our country and terrorized everybody everyday over the protection of people's health.

 

If you're eating and drinking that poison, and insist that everyone wears a mask for your health, then I say f*** you.

 

C you next week for when I need an update on whatever BS corporate America is spoon feeding the sheep.

 

I know I can find it here.

 

 

 

 

 

So what you're saying is that defeating the virus comes down to eating more kale and living the Robb Wolf diet? 

 

You seem a little unhinged brother. 

Edited July 23, 2020 by shoshin

[shoshin]

We've discussed heterogenous reactions to Covid here before. Here's more

 

https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-tricky-math-of-covid-19-herd-immunity-20200630/

Quote

 

Heterogeneity may be hard to estimate, but it’s also an important factor in determining what the herd immunity threshold really is. Langwig believes that the epidemiological community hasn’t done enough to try and get it right.

 

“We’ve kind of been a little sloppy in thinking about herd immunity,” she said. “This variability really matters, and we need to be careful to be more accurate about what the herd immunity threshold is.”

 

Some recent papers have tried. In June the journal Science published a study that incorporated a modest degree of heterogeneity and estimated the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 at 43% across broad populations. But one of the study’s co-authors, Tom Britton of Stockholm University, thinks there are additional sources of heterogeneity their model doesn’t account for.

 

“If anything, I’d think the difference is bigger, so that in fact the herd immunity level is probably a bit smaller than 43%,” Britton said.

 

Another new study takes a different approach to estimating differences in susceptibility to COVID-19 and puts the herd immunity threshold even lower. The paper’s 10 authors, who include Gomes and Langwig, estimate that the threshold for naturally acquired herd immunity to COVID-19 could be as low as 20% of the population. If that’s the case, the hardest-hit places in the world may be nearing it.

 

“We’re getting to the conclusion that the most affected regions like Madrid may be close to reaching herd immunity,” said Gomes. An early version of the paper was posted in May, and the authors are currently working on an updated version, which they anticipate posting soon. This version will include herd immunity estimates for Spain, Portugal, Belgium and England.

 

Many experts, however, consider these new studies — not all of which have been peer-reviewed yet — to be unreliable.

 

 

 

 

[WEATHER DOT COM]

 

[Big Blitz]

 

[B-Man]

 

 

RULES ARE FOR THE LITTLE PEOPLE (CONT’D): 

 

D.C. mayor exempts many city and federal government workers from strict new mask order. 

 

Government workers are the elite, and you should be flattered to receive their germs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[123719bwiqrb]

1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

Can't toddlers just be shipped by airmail? 

 

Since Epstein has left the game, yes I think that is the only way now.  Just pay extra for the priority delivery.

[B-Man]

 

 

Were the Lockdowns Effective at All?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[shoshin]

Florida

 

% pos: 16%

Deaths 173

Another 10K cases

 

Stablizing on case counts, maybe. 

 

If it's stabilizing, it's stabilizing at a painful place and hard to know where deaths will stabilize--they've only been rising. 

[bilzfancy]

There is talk here in Florida that some counties are gonna have mandatory vaccines. There's no way I'm getting vaccinated, I've never taken a flu vaccine and don't get the flu ( knock on wood). My body, my choice, sound familiar? I kinda get mandatory masks, but don't understand mandatory vaccines.

[BUFFALOTONE]

I am in FL as well, Broward to be exact. Nothing has changed since the proposed phase 1 opening. Every where you go folks have a mask on and that is totally fine. If you want to enter a private business and they require shirt and shoes well not its a mask for safety purposes.

 

Buddy of mine just tested positive this week, slight sore throat no smell or taste. Look is the virus real absolutely, is the hysteria real 100%....we need to be a lot better as people to get through things like this and I really don't care about the political angle, time to grow up. Times like these show how we progress as a nation and while there are a few bright spots we can still be a positive example. I am not telling anyone how to live their life but reading this thread has been eye opening to say the least. Talk about ebb and flow...

 

Stay safe Mofo's...

[GG]

On 7/21/2020 at 1:07 PM, SectionC3 said:

 

Hoax.  I’m not disingenuous, or partisan, or a hack.  It’s also a hoax that I used the word “prevented.”  

 

In point of fact, doing “something” or “anything” about the pandemic is vastly different from preventing the pandemic.  For example, perhaps the President could have advocated a simple, cheap safety precaution like wearing a mask at the outset of the pandemic.  Instead, he and his alt-wrong followers, including you in your capacity as the intellectual standard bearer of the local chapter of that crowd, focused on silver bullet nonsense, such as buying millions of doses of an unproven drug (hydroxychloroquine) and speculating that the injection of a household cleaner (Lysol, if I recall correctly) would stymie the virus to the extent it was not actually a “hoax” and did not “magically disappear” by Easter, as was predicted.  

 

Now, in view of those failings, your approach apparently is to resort to misguided hyperbole (“you’re wrong because you said that Trump should have prevented the virus, even though you never actually said anything of the sort!”), blame the source of the virus (calling it the “Wuhan virus” or the “Chinese virus” means that it’s not Trump’s fault that it spread unabated for months while he munched on hydroxychloroquine and obsessed about the television ratings for his press conferences!), which apparently now is confirmed as a “non-hoax,” or perhaps an “alt-hoax,” instead of suggesting that perhaps our federal government should have done such things as simple as having supported the wearing of masks as a prophylactic device.  

 

I’m beginning to think that your self-styled status as the intellectual standard bearer of the alt-wrong community is just another, shall we say, hoax. Sad!

 

Doing something about a pandemic, like standing up a task force in January, while his healthcare advisors were downplaying the contagion spread because they thought it would be like SARS-1?  

 

You like to label everything a hoax, but certainly have no problem perpetuating proven hoaxes that your response is replete with.

 

Disingenuous partisan hack.

[Big Blitz]

13 minutes ago, shoshin said:

Florida

 

% pos: 16%

Deaths 173

Another 10K cases

 

Stablizing on case counts, maybe. 

 

If it's stabilizing, it's stabilizing at a painful place and hard to know where deaths will stabilize--they've only been rising. 

 

 

If NY had the testing capacity and policy to test like Florida does now, the state would be at 1 million confirmed cases.  

 

And that's ok.  That's just a fact. 

 

And if they did, we would have a much lower CFR.  You can include Massachusetts and New Jersey there to.  In total probably would have diagnosed another 1 million cases in the NE.  

 

Unless the death rate was a unique 10 percent to them.  Which is not possible.  The number of undiagnosed cases in mid to late March in the NE was likely around 1 million.  I have no doubt in my mind.   

 

And I think based on logic and the data we probably have had 45 million Americans infected. 

 

Puts the IFR around 0.4.  Which is exactly what they think it is.  

[shoshin]

14 minutes ago, bilzfancy said:

There is talk here in Florida that some counties are gonna have mandatory vaccines. There's no way I'm getting vaccinated, I've never taken a flu vaccine and don't get the flu ( knock on wood). My body, my choice, sound familiar? I kinda get mandatory masks, but don't understand mandatory vaccines.

 

Once we have a vaccine, it will not be widely available so that is just talk.

 

HCWS, at risk, older folks, then probably open for all. It'll take a couple years before it's out there for anyone would be my guess. And it doesn't matter because tons of people--most posters here at PPP--won't bother taking it.  

[Gary M]

27 minutes ago, shoshin said:

If it's stabilizing, it's stabilizing at a painful place and hard to know where deaths will stabilize--they've only been rising. 

 

I'm think when they hit the same numbers percentage wise as NY in number of cases, their deaths will be lower because well Cuomo killed grandma.