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jwhit34

The Making of the 2020 Roster

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The Bills have:

  • 42 players under contract for 2020
  • 12 Unrestricted free agents including Lorenzo Alexander and Frank Gore (others: J. Phillips, K. Johnson, S. Lawson, Q. Spain, L. Waddle, M. Alexander, J. Stanford, K. Coleman, C. Liuget, S. Perry)
  • 1 Player with a club option for 2020  Spencer Long)
  • 3 Restricted free agents (I. Asiata, I. McKenzie, D. Marlowe)
  • 3 Exclusive rights free agents (R. Foster, L. Wallace, J. Croom)
  • 9 2020 draft picks (their own 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, Cleveland's 5th & 6th, Patriots 6th)
  • Estimated $89 million in cap space

 

If I was GM, this is what I would try to do:

  • Cap casualties: Of the 42 under contract, I would release:
    • Tyler Kroft - projected $6.4 mill. cap #, $1.6 dead money for $4.8 mill. cap savings
    • Trent Murphy -$8.95m cap #, $1.75m dead money for $7.2m cap savings
    • Pat DiMarco  - $2.35m cap #, $500k dead money for $1.85m cap savings
    • Total cap savings: $13.85 million giving them about $104 million under the cap
  • Spencer Long: He's on a club option and under contract for 2 years, either tack on a year in a cap friendly structure or decline the club option and take the $700k in dead cap, his cap # is over $4 million for 2020. 
  • Their UFAs
    • Use the $ from the cap casualties to re-sign Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson. This may take a little more than $14 million, but if it's $16m so be it, that would still leave $88 million under the cap. They would have 7 DL under contract, 8 counting Taylor.
    • If Jordan Phillips doesn't re-sign, sign Cory Liuget, he can probably be had for around $2 million
    • Quinton Spain - it depends. If they move Cody Ford to G and go after a top notch T in free agency or high in the draft then they can let him go. He likes it here, he would be one that I would continue to give 1 year deals at modest money ($2-4 million). 
    • Kevin Johnson maybe a 2 year deal at modest money, he's a depth player now.
    • Let Gore retire,  all the others if you sign them fine, but they are bottom of the roster guys who will cost between the league minimum and $2 million, they will either sign them of find others just like them.
  • RFAs
    • Make qualifying offers for McKenzie and Marlowe, if they stay okay, if not, okay. McKenzie will probably stay.
  • ERFA
    • I think they hold all the cards with them, can sign all to modest deals. Wallace will be interesting, I'd keep him but wonder how much he will cost. 
  • Free Agent Market
    • WR: Not a lot to pick from, Amari Cooper longer term or AJ Green on a 1-2 year prove it deal.
    • OT: Also not a lot of choices of players under 30, Costanzo is 32 and probably the best player but would think he stays with Colts. Maybe Jack Conklin
    • TE: I would make Austin Hooper a priority, he's 25, pair him with Knox and that can be a dynamite duo. Hunter Henry is a good one too but I would go hard after Hooper.
    • OLB: I don't have a name but they need a 3rd LB who would play 40-50% of snaps, find a $3-4 million guy and draft someone in round 4-5. 
    • They can probably get all 4 of these for no more than $40 million, maybe a little higher if they land Cooper, which leaves them still way under the cap 
    • Unlike 2019, 2020 can be about quality not quantity. 
  • Draft
    • Rounds 1 & 2: DE and WR - they are need positions and if you hit on these they are value picks for 3+ years. 
    • Rounds 3, 4 & 5: LB, OL, CB, RB, best player available
    • Round 6: Best player available
    • Draft choices will probably count about $9-10 million on cap. 
  • Long term deals: Start signing your own. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:
  • Draft
    • Rounds 1 & 2: DE and WR - they are need positions and if you hit on these they are value picks for 3+ years. 
    • Rounds 3, 4 & 5: LB, OL, CB, RB, best player available
    • Round 6: Best player available
    • Draft choices will probably count about $9-10 million on cap. 
  • Long term deals: Start signing your own. 

Gotta add a punter somewhere in this draft

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I have a thought that I want to throw out and figured this is a good place to start. Trade picks 22 & 54 for picks 24 and Kamara. The Bills get some explosiveness and can still take the WR at 24. The Saints get the ammo to make a move up in the draft for the eventual successor to Brees. The value for New Orleans is the equivalent of pick 50 and I don’t think they are going to pay Kamara. 

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24 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I have a thought that I want to throw out and figured this is a good place to start. Trade picks 22 & 54 for picks 24 and Kamara. The Bills get some explosiveness and can still take the WR at 24. The Saints get the ammo to make a move up in the draft for the eventual successor to Brees. The value for New Orleans is the equivalent of pick 50 and I don’t think they are going to pay Kamara. 

I thought they were going with Bridgewater after Brees?

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Awful lot of work putting numbers together for a lot of nada. Costanzo already said he’s playing for Indy or retiring. 
Im sure AJ Green would love to sign a prove it deal cause no way anyone offers him more than a 1 or 2 year deal right? We do know this is free agency talk where people get ridiculous deals? 
Hooper and cooper will probably never even sniff actual free agency and even if they did you make it sound like they’ll just sign up here no biggie like 30 other teams won’t chase them and grossly over pay them. 
Not trying to be mr negative but the list is unrealistic besides our own moves which is just common sense for the most part.

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14 minutes ago, the skycap said:

I thought they were going with Bridgewater after Brees?

Both are FA this year. I doubt that they move on from Brees and can’t imagine paying Teddy the $20M or so he will get out there. If they have pick 22, 54 and their 2021 1st they can maybe chase Tua. Play Brees next year and red shirt Tua.

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@noacls I’m not sure why the laughing emoji? As someone that lives in New Orleans and follows both teams this is absolutely viable. Kamara is likely going to be gone this offseason. They aren’t going to give him the next big RB contract. He just hasn’t earned it and they have $ tied up elsewhere. They want their next QB. They have no 2nd rounder so they can’t get up this year. 2 1sts plus a 2nd and they can climb to Tua territory. 
 

Kamara was WAY more effective when he played with Ingram who handled the running between the tackles. That’s Singletary. They can add a big back late to handle short yardage. They will use Kamara as a versatile weapon and 3rd down back. It makes a ton of sense for both teams.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

@noacls I’m not sure why the laughing emoji? As someone that lives in New Orleans and follows both teams this is absolutely viable. Kamara is likely going to be gone this offseason. They aren’t going to give him the next big RB contract. He just hasn’t earned it and they have $ tied up elsewhere. They want their next QB. They have no 2nd rounder so they can’t get up this year. 2 1sts plus a 2nd and they can climb to Tua territory. 
 

Kamara was WAY more effective when he played with Ingram who handled the running between the tackles. That’s Singletary. They can add a big back late to handle short yardage. They will use Kamara as a versatile weapon and 3rd down back. It makes a ton of sense for both teams.

Good thoughts. I agree with this thinking. Doubt it'll happen, however, for a simple reason - they are still a premier team and will have another chance next year. I can't imagine Payton is worried about the successor to Brees because he probably won't be that successor's coach by the time he's good enough to win it all (if that ever happens). Kamara is too important to that offense *next year* for them to start ditching proven talent for picks.

2 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

 

If I was GM, this is what I would try to do:

  • Cap casualties: Of the 42 under contract, I would release:
    • Tyler Kroft - projected $6.4 mill. cap #, $1.6 dead money for $4.8 mill. cap savings
    • Trent Murphy -$8.95m cap #, $1.75m dead money for $7.2m cap savings
    • Pat DiMarco  - $2.35m cap #, $500k dead money for $1.85m cap savings
    • Total cap savings: $13.85 million giving them about $104 million under the cap
  •  

 

 

Trent Murphy was a lot better this season than people give him credit for. He was very disruptive all season and had 4 sacks in the final two games (including the Houston game, in which he played EXTREMELY well). He is a lot better than a lot of the FA DE talent that'll be available, is a well liked process guy, and knows the system. 

Edited by dave mcbride
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Just now, dave mcbride said:

Good thoughts. I agree with this thinking. Doubt it'll happen, however, for a simple reason - they are still a premier team and will have another chance next year. I can't imagine Payton is worried about the successor to Brees because he probably won't be that successor's coach by the time he's good enough to win it all (if that ever happens). Kamara is too important to that offense *next year* for them to start ditching proven talent for picks.

I don’t necessarily disagree but they are close to hitting the panic button (really close). I’ve actually thrown this out to a bunch of Saints fans this morning and every single one is in for it. They feel Taysom can fill a lot of the Kamara role and they can draft another guy late. Brees probably comes back and Teddy ends up elsewhere. Their window is closing. 

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Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t necessarily disagree but they are close to hitting the panic button (really close). I’ve actually thrown this out to a bunch of Saints fans this morning and every single one is in for it. They feel Taysom can fill a lot of the Kamara role and they can draft another guy late. Brees probably comes back and Teddy ends up elsewhere. Their window is closing. 

Well, I for one would be all over that trade. Kamara would represent a MASSIVE upgrade for the Bills.

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1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 I don’t think they are going to pay Kamara. 


Whaaaat? Insanity.

 

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1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said:


Whaaaat? Insanity.

 

Look at the teams that have paid RBs. Virtually all of them probably regret it, and I include the Cowboys here. 

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1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Look at the teams that have paid RBs. Virtually all of them probably regret it, and I include the Cowboys here. 


And yet, you'd be all over that trade?

 

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Just now, Joe in Winslow said:


Whaaaat? Insanity.

 

Ha ha, I know how people feel about paying RBs but we can make a couple of roster tweaks and not even have to worry about it. We can use his big play ability for 3 years (or whatever) and then move on. If our “draft” started Kamara & Shenault (for example) we’d be a much better team. We can attack the defense & OL in FA. We still have pick 86 (I think) and 5 picks between 5 & 6. We can move all over the board to target guys that we like. 

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9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

@noacls I’m not sure why the laughing emoji? As someone that lives in New Orleans and follows both teams this is absolutely viable. Kamara is likely going to be gone this offseason. They aren’t going to give him the next big RB contract. He just hasn’t earned it and they have $ tied up elsewhere. They want their next QB. They have no 2nd rounder so they can’t get up this year. 2 1sts plus a 2nd and they can climb to Tua territory. 
 

Kamara was WAY more effective when he played with Ingram who handled the running between the tackles. That’s Singletary. They can add a big back late to handle short yardage. They will use Kamara as a versatile weapon and 3rd down back. It makes a ton of sense for both teams.

I like Kamara but I wouldn’t be willing to give up picks for him. While maybe not quite as dynamic there’s a lot of guys who can play that role. If we could find a way to give him 20+ touches a game it wouldn’t be bad I just don’t see them giving him the ball that much.

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Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

Ha ha, I know how people feel about paying RBs but we can make a couple of roster tweaks and not even have to worry about it. We can use his big play ability for 3 years (or whatever) and then move on. If our “draft” started Kamara & Shenault (for example) we’d be a much better team. We can attack the defense & OL in FA. We still have pick 86 (I think) and 5 picks between 5 & 6. We can move all over the board to target guys that we like. 

 

No, I'm saying the Saints would be nuts to let him go.

 

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Just now, Joe in Winslow said:


And yet, you'd be all over that trade?

 

Yeah, I would. I think the Bills have so much cap space, and they have a window next year to be a SB contender. They are just a couple of pieces away on offense - an elite receiver, a player like Kamara, and one more decent o-lineman. Sometimes you've gotta roll the dice. New Orleans had their run with Kamara, and if they're serious about rebooting, paying a RB is a terrible way to start that process.  Every team's context is different. 

 

I don't think this will happen, by the way. 

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Don't think I'd start cutting players until you need the cap space.  With their current TE's do they need Tyler Kroft, probably not.  But lets get thru the off season and pre-season first, see who may get hurt, then release him when getting down to 53.  Or maybe some other teams TE gets hurt, and could trade him.  If you need the cap space sooner fine, then make the cuts, but doubt they'll eat up all the cap that quickly.

 

I'd draft DE in 1st round then WR.  My thinking is it's easier to find good WR's who are FA than it is pass rushing defensive ends.  3rd round O-lineman

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3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Yeah, I would. I think the Bills have so much cap space, and they have a window next year to be a SB contender. They are just a couple of pieces away on offense - an elite receiver, a player like Kamara, and one more decent o-lineman. Sometimes you've gotta roll the dice. New Orleans had their run with Kamara, and if they're serious about rebooting, paying a RB is a terrible way to start that process.  Every team's context is different. 

 

I don't think this will happen, by the way. 

 

Me either. I don't think there's any way they bail on Kamara.

 

 

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Is this the year that cutting players after June 1 does no good because the CBA ends after 2020?  And that means all dead money hits for '20 regardless of when the cut is made?

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Just now, Joe in Winslow said:

 

No, I'm saying the Saints would be nuts to let him go.

 

Yeah, I’m not sure that I would do it but I think they will. If they can get that package it’s much better than a computer pick a year later. There has been a lot of talk around here about him being a different player without Ingram. He did not have a very good year. This would feel like an early 2000’s Patriots type of move but don’t be surprised (at all) if Kamara is on a different team next year.

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1 hour ago, Halloween Land said:

Gotta get another DE.

Or keep Murphy. I get people think he's over paid but he's not horrible. He's average which isn't a bad thing for a depth DE.

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Spending 16 million on shaq and J phillips would not be a smart route imo.  Id rather pay yannick ngakoue 16-18 million and get a true impact player.  Jordan phillips is a good football player so is shaq.  But ill take an elite talent over the 2 of them and then replace Jordan phillips with a cheap draft pick.  

 

D tackle will be fine with Harrison, ed, star, and a 3rd or 4th round pick.

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2 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

 

  • ERFA
    • I think they hold all the cards with them, can sign all tomodest deals. Wallace will be interesting, I'd keep him but wonder how much he will cost. 

 

Thanks for taking the time putting this post together. I wanted to clarify some stuff on ERFA for you because it seemed like you weren’t really clear on the concept.

 

It happens when a player reaches the end of their contract with less than 3 accrued seasons. The player may only resign with their original team at the league minimum tender (or more if the team chooses to offer more). They’re not allowed to negotiate with other teams, they can only sign with us as long as we tender them a contract. 
 

Wallace, Foster and Croom will all be back under contact and most likely will be making the league minimum. 

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