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Dadonkadonk

Where are you on the spectrum??

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1 hour ago, mead107 said:

 

I am making a list and checking it twice to see where everyone stands.  

 

Someone should start a thread on Allen

will he be better than Kelly 

will he be 4-5 year guy

total bust. 

 

 

No, someone WILL start threads on Allen prognosticating each of those three outcomes.

 

When you've been sent back from the future for historical research, this is easier to see.

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

...but now I'm Hapless

What did you do with Hap?

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10 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

If this is true than he will be more than enough to win a super bowl with the right weapons around him.

 

Oh, yes, because Cam Newton has taken his team to so many Super Bowls -- and Super Bowl wins.

 

10 hours ago, Steptide said:

I keep hearing about this "Allen is a bust" crowd, but I have no idea wh o/where they are. I'd say 75% of fans are cautiously optimistic, while 25% are certain he's the next Kelly. I read almost nothing on here, or hear nothing from local radio about Allen being a bust or the wrong pick

 

Exactly this.  I think I read exactly 1 "negative" post in this thread ... and that poster counted himself "mildly pessimistic".  The idea of a "Allen is a bust CROWD" is a figment of Allen fans' imaginations.

 

9 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

I put him above Brady and Rodgers but slightly below Marino and Elway at this stage...

 

Since both Brady and Rodgers rode the pine and didn't even get into games when it counted as rookies, that's not saying much.  He's also looked better so far than Patrick Mahomes did last season, too.

 

8 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I see the scale as a JaMarcus Russel -> Jay Cutler -> Brett Favre -> John Elway progression, even though a lot of people might say Favre was the better passer, i think Elway was the better "quarterback". I think comparisons to these guys are all reasonable based on being big cannon armed throwers with mobility ( besides Russell, but he sucks, so it doesn't matter).

He's already better than Russel ever was, but isn't yet in Cutler territory, though his trajectory seems like it could be at least that good, if he can fix some things. In my eyes anything above that is extremely premature. When Allen makes a great play it looks like it came from one of the greats, but when he misses a 5 yard pass in the flats, overthrows deep balls, or loses pocket awareness it gives me a lot of pause. This is a kid that has a lot of things to work on to get to be in that coveted "top 10" QB spot.

My biggest fear with him is that he's able to become good enough to be a Jay Cutler level QB that isn't good enough to win games in January and beyond, but is too good to get rid of, so we're all sitting here for the next 10 years praying it's the year he finally gets it together. For that reason, I'm pessimistic long term. On the short term side, I'm really hoping he makes massive strides over the rest of the year and the offseason and comes back next year looking like a vet. I don't expect Mahomes, because that just doesn't happen. If he can be young Big Ben, that would be more than I could realistically hope for at this point.

Let's call it a 6 for now.

 

I think this is the most realistic post in this thread.  It's way to early to have a real clue in how he'll turn out long term.  Lots of good looking rookies/first year starting QBs have come out and done much more than Allen has done ... and crashed and burned.  Others have done less and blossomed into good/great QBs.  The reverse is also true.  Rookie seasons/first year starting seasons aren't good indicators. 

 

I think that next season will be much more telling for Allen's future.  If he comes out and demonstrates that he's significantly better as a sophomore than he was this year, then fans and skeptics alike can realistically be optimistic that he can become a good NFL starter.  If he doesn't make those improvements, he's probably going to be another Losman or Manuel.

 

My concern about Allen is two fold.  The first is that I continue to be concerned that the Bills will put the pieces around Allen to enable him to have success, starting with a real QB coach rather than a former WR coach,  but including adding OL, receivers, and RBs.  If the Bills don't put better coaching and on-field talent around Allen, nobody is going to be able to evaluate him correctly.  

 

Secondly, I'm concerned that Allen's just good enough with a poor supporting cast that the Bills keep him when maybe they would be better off moving on.  I'm thinking of QBs like Tannehill, Bortles, Winston, and Mariota, all of whom remain questionable in discussions of good starting NFL QBs.  Bortles appeared to have settled his fate, but Winston came back from also being benched.  I think Mariota seems most similar to Allen at least situation wise.

 

3 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

He was the 3rd QB taken, but I'd rather have him over Mayfield and Darnold. Allen can make special plays with his arm or his legs. Every throw no matter how difficult is on the table. 

 

LOL.  If Mayfield or Darnold was the Bills QB, you'd be saying the same thing about rather having him over Allen.

 

Edited by SoTier

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10 hours ago, Steptide said:

I keep hearing about this "Allen is a bust" crowd, but I have no idea who/where they are. I'd say 75% of fans are cautiously optimistic, while 25% are certain he's the next Kelly. I read almost nothing on here, or hear nothing from local radio about Allen being a bust or the wrong pick

To answer the original question, I'm in the cautiously optimistic crowd. I love Allen's fire. I can't remember the last qb we had who lost a game (on a 4-7 team) that looked like he had just lost the national championship game in college in his post game presser (speaking of Allen after the Miami loss this last Sunday). So yes I think there is something special there, but I'll contain my excitement for now. 

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I said it once, I'll say it again, Josh will be good enough that we will be in the playoffs more than we are not and if he gets hot during the playoffs... Well,  I think we could finally win ourselves a Superbowl.

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16 minutes ago, SoTier said:

LOL.  If Mayfield or Darnold was the Bills QB, you'd be saying the same thing about rather having him over Allen

No I wouldn't. Mayfield has a Drew Brees like ceiling. I just think Allen has a higher ceiling than that. Brady's career is winding down, Buffalo needs to go in for the kill and take over the division. Tannehill and Darnold do not stand a chance. Buffalo could hold down the division for the foreseeable future.

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8 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

My doctor said I'm definitely on the spectrum. 

 

Not sure what he meant. 

 

I think lots of the optimism we are seeing here is also because of his work ethic, smarts, attitude, leadership skills, and personality. That lessens any of the few concerns, and gives us more hope and willingness to be more patient. I mean, it is hard not to like him for those other untangibles. So, when you see his huge arm strength, elusiveness and running ability, the fun rarely  seen before superman plays, and when we see some progress, one would have to be a real dope or biased to not have some optimism.

 

I replied to this post as our two sons relate. It means you likely are gifted in some wonderful way.

Edited by drf1835

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15 minutes ago, Steptide said:

To answer the original question, I'm in the cautiously optimistic crowd. I love Allen's fire. I can't remember the last qb we had who lost a game (on a 4-7 team) that looked like he had just lost the national championship game in college in his post game presser (speaking of Allen after the Miami loss this last Sunday). So yes I think there is something special there, but I'll contain my excitement for now. 

 

Really? Fitz looked like that after every defeat too. Allen is obviously way more talented than Fitz but Fitz took losses hard as well.

6 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

No I wouldn't. Mayfield has a Drew Brees like ceiling. I just think Allen has a higher ceiling than that. Brady's career is winding down, Buffalo needs to go in for the kill and take over the division. Tannehill and Darnold do not stand a chance. Buffalo could hold down the division for the foreseeable future.

 

A higher ceiling than Drew Brees? You mean top 10 all time QB Drew Brees? You mean absolute lock 1st ballot HoFer Drew Brees?  You think based on what you have seen so far Josh Allen has the potential to be better than one of the best 5 or 6 to have ever played the game?

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If you extrapolate the progress he has made so far, I am highly optimistic. I believe we have, finally, an answer at QB.

 

Will he lead us to a SB and earn MVP honors? I have no clue but I love what he’s done this year physically and how he Is managing the mental aspects of the game (trash talking, holding his tongue, taking ownership, etc). 

 

Behind an actual line with actual receivers and a complementary run game, I fully expect this kid to do special things. 

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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

A higher ceiling than Drew Brees? You mean top 10 all time QB Drew Brees? You mean absolute lock 1st ballot HoFer Drew Brees?  You think based on what you have seen so far Josh Allen has the potential to be better than one of the best 5 or 6 to have ever played the game?

Allen and Mayfield will be the two players talked about from the 2018 draft. Mayfield will put up Drew Brees production next year most likely. I think Allen can do better. 

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I was thi king about this topic this morning and he reminds of Doug Flutie but with height and a cannon arm- so i am very optimistic. That charles clay drop last week would have been a bighlight rell ay if clay did the basic version of his job.

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11 hours ago, stuvian said:

People compare him to Cam Newton but Cam Newton broke Peyton Manning's rookie passing records. I'll say Allen is Joe Flacco or Matt Ryan with wheels

Plus, Cam Newton had an actual NFL team around him his rookie season and that 2011 team only went 6-10. All Josh Allen has is adversity. 

 

Newton had WR Steve Smith, 79 catches for 1394 yards, TE Greg Olsen, TE Jeremy Shockey, RB DeAngelo Williams. Not to mention a solid offensive line.  Allen had a supposed #1  lazy WR that was just cut...

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Easy does it now.  In this thread you have folks saying Mayfield is Brees and Allen will be even better.  I am optimistic about Allen and Mayfield.  For both it seems they are picking things up reasonably quickly and that they are getting things to slow down to where they van make the right reads. etc.  And Allen especially adds another dimension with his running.  But to place HOF career type expectations on either them, or to say a Darnold or Rosen or Jackson will either be great or terrible, is way premature.  Fun to talk about, but way too early.

 

My gut is that Allen and Mayfield will be long term guys, get their teams to the playoffs consistently, and if they get the right stuff done from coaches and front office staff could win the whole enchilada.  Rosen and Jackson I'm not as sure about.  Rosen I think is struggling a bit more to pick up the pro game in contradistinction to what was talked about pre-draft.  And I'm not sure he has the physical stamina.  Jackson has the running side to his game,  even more so that Allen.  But we'll have to see how he ultimately does in the passing game.  I think both are in the league a while but could bounce around a bit.  Darnold I'm not optimistic about.  I think the media that is NYC will be an issue for him, and from what I've seen I think he'll be prone to poor decision making and throwing ill advised picks.  He could of course mature out of that but right now he's the bottom of my list.

 

And I don't see any of them yet matching what we saw in Kelly or see in Brees.  There's a reason there's only like 30 QBs in the HOF.  They may get there, they may not.  Should be fun to watch though.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Allen and Mayfield will be the two players talked about from the 2018 draft. Mayfield will put up Drew Brees production next year most likely. I think Allen can do better. 

 

Better production than Drew Brees? I mean, I hope you are right but do you understand what a ridiculously high bar that is? Better production that one of the all time passing leaders and a certain top 10 arguably top 6 all time Quarterback?

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I'm way up the curve. I'm trying to curb my enthusiasm. 

 

I think Allen is a star.  I don't even include his running ability in my evaluation.  Poise, pocket presence, command of the huddle, scrambling and escapability, and throwing ability are all first rate.  He's smart and eager to learn.  I think he's the best of his class and actually can be the best of his generation. 

 

And I'm   back on the McBeane bandwagon.  First because they were smart enough to identify Allen and find a way to get him.  Next because they've created place where players want to play.  Third, because McDermott builds sound defenses.  Fourth, because they keep changing until they get it right.  

 

And I'm liking Daboll.

 

But.mostly because of Allen. 

 

I'm excited. 

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He is carrying the offense.  I dont remember how long it's been since that was case.  Fitz still had Fredex and Spiller.  Maybe Bledsoe was the last qb who really carried the unit.  For a rookie to do that says alot. Scale to 10 I'm an 8.  

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6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Better production than Drew Brees? I mean, I hope you are right but do you understand what a ridiculously high bar that is? Better production that one of the all time passing leaders and a certain top 10 arguably top 6 all time Quarterback?

Baker Mayfield is putting up great numbers for a rookie, next year he is probably throwing for 40TDs with less INTS. That's within a margin you'd expect from Brees. You draft QBs #1 overall or #7 overall because you think they can perform at an elite level. Allen will probably put up similar overall yards and total TDs as Mayfield but more of it will be on the ground instead. New guys are taking over man.

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6 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Baker Mayfield is putting up great numbers for a rookie, next year he is probably throwing for 40TDs with less INTS. That's within a margin you'd expect from Brees. You draft QBs #1 overall or #7 overall because you think they can perform at an elite level. Allen will probably put up similar overall yards and total TDs as Mayfield but more of it will be on the ground instead. New guys are taking over man.

 

And then you think Baker Mayfield will maintain that pace for 12 years presumably if he is going to equal Drew Brees? And Josh Allen will be doing even better for that period? Again, I hope you are right but if there are two players from this class able to match Drew Brees then it will be one of the all time great Quarterback classes. It would be remarkable if there were even one.

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I always try to be realistic.

 

When they drafted Josh Allen, I honestly was disappointed.  After reviewing almost all of the games from his senior year, I just felt like he had too much to improve on.  With all the "sure thing" quarterbacks that fail in this league, why draft such a huge project - especially when a more NFL-ready QB was staring them right in the face (Josh Rosen).

 

Since training camp, I have closely followed Allen's progress.  I read all the training camp reports I could find.  I watched every preseason snap.  I've read up on All-22 Reviews during the season, and gone back after the games to re-watch all of his plays.  I'm very aware that Allen's rushing ability will only get him so far.  He needs to become a good NFL passer to ultimately be successful.  So every time he breaks out a 25-yard scramble, I'm excited for the team, but I take it with a grain of salt when considering his development. 

 

With that said... I think the potential we see in Allen's passing ability and his growth over the last 3-4 months has been very apparent.  From pocket presence, to reading the defense, to release time, to accuracy, etc.  He is improving.  Now he's obviously still got a ways to go, and if the growth stops here - he will ultimately flame-out as a long-term starter in this league.  No doubt.  But at the same time, the improvement we are already seeing is more than we EVER got from EJ Manuel.  He's already in a place that JP Losman took at least 2-3 seasons to reach.  And I think his downside has already reached Tyrod Taylor/Ryan Fitzpatrick levels. 

 

Comparing Allen to the other rookie QBs around the league, you can see that all 5 guys are making similar mistakes.  It's just too early to tell about any of them.  The encouraging thing about Allen is that:  a)  He was considered "rawer" than the other guys about 6 months ago, and has already reached about the same level, and b)  His potential/ceiling is much higher.

 

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14 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Baker Mayfield is putting up great numbers for a rookie, next year he is probably throwing for 40TDs with less INTS. That's within a margin you'd expect from Brees. You draft QBs #1 overall or #7 overall because you think they can perform at an elite level. Allen will probably put up similar overall yards and total TDs as Mayfield but more of it will be on the ground instead. New guys are taking over man.

I agree the new guys are taking over.  And in the group of new guys, there are a half dozen with the potential to be in the top 10 all time discussion.  Goff, Wentz, Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Mahomes.   Guys with arms and moxie. 

 

Not saying any or all will be top 10, but those guys and maybe one or two more have the potential.  

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This comparison to recent Bill's QBs  is a good way to look at it.  

 

He already certainly is past where Manuel ever was.  He's already better than Losman ever was.  Losman made more mistakes in his final season than Allen is making in his first.  

 

I wouldn't be too quick to say his floor is Taylor and Fitzpatrick is.   I tend to agree, but those guys were pretty consistent veterans and Allen still could stumble. 

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26 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Comparing Allen to the other rookie QBs around the league, you can see that all 5 guys are making similar mistakes.  It's just too early to tell about any of them.  The encouraging thing about Allen is that:  a)  He was considered "rawer" than the other guys about 6 months ago, and has already reached about the same level, and b)  His potential/ceiling is much higher.

 

 

What's interesting to me is the difference among the rookies with respect to the "traditional" QB rating vs. ESPN's QBR ranking.

 

Mayfield:  91.1/51.6

Darnold:  68.3/31.4

Allen:  66.3/50.4

Rosen:  68.2/31.1

Jackson:  73.5/38.5

 

After Baker's superior "traditional" rating all of the other rookies are roughly the same, but it appears only Allen and Mayfield are "helping" their teams more, if you buy into the QBR statistic.

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4 minutes ago, eball said:

 

What's interesting to me is the difference among the rookies with respect to the "traditional" QB rating vs. ESPN's QBR ranking.

 

Mayfield:  91.1/51.6

Darnold:  68.3/31.4

Allen:  66.3/50.4

Rosen:  68.2/31.1

Jackson:  73.5/38.5

 

After Baker's superior "traditional" rating all of the other rookies are roughly the same, but it appears only Allen and Mayfield are "helping" their teams more, if you buy into the QBR statistic.

 

QBR is trash.

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3 minutes ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

How dare you assume that Bills fans are all autistic

 

I know, right?  That’s ignorant 🤓

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