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Josh Allen's progress

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2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

If you’re like me, you enjoy putzing around on the wealth of stats sites available for the NFL. I’m talking PFF, Football Outsiders, NFL Team Stats, SB Nation’s advanced stats, and more. I can’t watch every game — I don’t want to watch every game, for goodness’ sake — so I rely on secondhand information to get a feel for the weekly lulls and swells of the NFL. That includes the film analysts I trust, as well as the sites that present player and team performances numerically. It’s like metal detecting on the beach: mostly, you get what you expect. But when you get something you didn’t expect, it’s uncharted, exciting, and worthy of investigation.

 

I’m wearing a deerstalker as we speak.

 

Here’s a great example: I haven’t been watching the Bills recently because…well, because they’re the Bills. And as such, I had no idea that this was a thing:

 

 

That piqued my interest immediately.

 

You don’t just start hitting absurdly high numbers in intended air yards without a concerted offensive effort to do so. Put another way: this can’t just be Josh Allen deciding to bomb every single pass, regardless of what his offensive coordinator Brian Daboll wants of him. No, this must have been a deliberate move; a decision between the head coach, the offensive coordinator, the QB coach, and the quarterback. We’re going to start pushing the ball deep. A lot.

 

But it’s even more than that!

 

 

 

 I like that JA is always looking at/past the first down marker as opposed TT who always seemed to be looking to pass to the line of scrimmage and relying on YAC. I know that's probably an exaggeration for TT but I remember a lot of that. 

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1 minute ago, downunderbill said:

 

 I like that JA is always looking at/past the first down marker as opposed TT who always seemed to be looking to pass to the line of scrimmage and relying on YAC. I know that's probably an exaggeration for TT but I remember a lot of that. 

 

There have been occasions in the last two games when he eschewed easier and shorter throws (Croom and Zay) looking for a bigger play that resulted in throwaways.  It's not always a good thing when trying to sustain offense.

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1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

There have been occasions in the last two games when he eschewed easier and shorter throws (Croom and Zay) looking for a bigger play that resulted in throwaways.  It's not always a good thing when trying to sustain offense.

 

 And the run when he had an easy dump off to shady, those are definitely plays he needs to learn from but i feel a sense of refreshment of how much easier it has been to move the ball and sustain drives of late. One play this year of TT's was during the first Browns game this year, it was 3rd and 22 and TT threw to the LOS for a 1yd pass. it just seemed so familiar.

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1 minute ago, downunderbill said:

 

 And the run when he had an easy dump off to shady, those are definitely plays he needs to learn from but i feel a sense of refreshment of how much easier it has been to move the ball and sustain drives of late. One play this year of TT's was during the first Browns game this year, it was 3rd and 22 and TT threw to the LOS for a 1yd pass. it just seemed so familiar.

 

Onward!

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14 hours ago, eball said:

 

Oh look, another "advanced stats" guy crowing about how he was "right" about Allen as a passer but grudgingly acknowledging his athletic ability.  Yippee.

 

And Lamar Jackson "clearly" 2nd in this class?  Really?

 

14 hours ago, Warcodered said:

"Allen sometimes completely missed on screen passes, somehow failing to hit an unguarded 6-foot-tall target just feet away from him. I was delighted to learn that in the pros, this still happens"

 

Well I'm certain this guy is looking at Allen's play so far with an unbiased opinion.🙄

 

In the end, Rodger Sherman's begrudging backhanded compliment of Allen's running prowess in the Ringer piece with criticism for the rest of his game as a QB won't matter one bit.  Allen will have ample opportunity to prove him wrong and the Bills will provide him with the tools to do so. 

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On 12/4/2018 at 3:27 PM, jrober38 said:

I don't think Allen has shown much progress as a passer from the pocket. He's essentially the same now as he was at the beginning of the season.

 

I do however think he's shown progress on the mental side of the game in terms of how he approaches things.  Allen has quickly figured out that he's at the top of the food chain in the NFL.

 

He's bigger, stronger, and faster than the guys assigned with stopping him. At the beginning of the season, I think he was a bit timid, and didn't realize what he could do physically. Now I feel like he's figured out that he can outrun linemen and linebackers, and as a result he's most comfortable freelancing, running around, buying time, waiting for guys to get open for huge plays. This has been a big change in his attitude. 

 

What he's doing has been increasingly effective because he's such a gifted athlete. He thrives operating in chaos where DBs are asked to cover his receivers for 4+ seconds and he's excellent at throwing on the run. This progress has mostly been a result of a changed mentality by Allen.

 

As a pocket passer, I don't think there's been a lot of improvement. He still misses throws from time to time and struggles a lot when asked to throw with touch over defenders. He's got a cannon, but rarely connects on deep balls that require touch. If he can improve on these throws, he should wind up being pretty good.

 

The key is that he needs to improve from the pocket. Allen isn't going to be 23 years old with a fresh body and 4.6 speed forever. After the hits start to pile up, he'll slow down a bit, and he won't be able to buy the time he's currently able to buy outside the pocket. At that point he'll need to have figured out how to operate efficiently from the pocket or he'll be sunk as an NFL QB. 

The Bolded parts are you explaining his improvements from college, despite your narrative. 

Hehas actually improved passing from the pocket significantly from his college days as this was the 1st NFL crash course the Bills gave him. He’s shown no reason to be concerned that he won’t continue to improve on any aspect of his game. 

As for long ball accuracy, he’s had a few drops which I think cloud your concern because they weren’t caught. His WR group changed virtually every game he’s played, so there’s no continuity like Brady to Gronk yet. The kid has played in 8 games and he’s not likely to see these receivers next year, sans Zay.

Enjoy the ride. 

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13 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

There have been occasions in the last two games when he eschewed easier and shorter throws (Croom and Zay) looking for a bigger play that resulted in throwaways.  It's not always a good thing when trying to sustain offense.

 

This seems like a good place to put in a quote from a Greg Cosell assessment:

"So cut to the chase: what must Allen do to become great?

"The key thing for him is going to be able to make throws that are viewed as routine in the NFL," Cosell said. "Because you can't live on big plays. You can't live on quote, unquote special plays. Quarterbacks become great making routine plays. I think back to quarterbacks like Troy Aikman, who when it was third-and-7, he'd hit his tight end Jay Novacek for eight yards and get a first down. You're not going to see those plays on SportsCenter. Those are the kinds of plays that quarterbacks have to make. Tom Brady, and I know we're talking about arguably the greatest of all time, but you saw a great example this past week with a great game plan when they pretty much kept throwing five-yard passes, six-yard passes, seven-yard passes. Those are the kinds of things that you have to be able to do. The spectacular plays, he can make those plays, Josh Allen, but he has to be able to make the routine plays. Because at the end of the day, you can be 100 things, but if you can't throw the ball where you want to consistently then you don't have anything as a quarterback."

 

I think this echoes something I've said repeatedly:  Allen has Got to improve his ability to 'Make the Bunnies' and make them accurately - the short passes or backfield dump-offs that move the sticks. In the end, it is whether or not he improves that skill, that will drive his NFL career trajectory.  And I've seen improvement, but he's not where he needs to be...yet.

 

The question is, does he whole-heartedly buy into that as an objective, or is he going to become a "deep threat Darryl" mad-bomber type.  Because I don't think that will get us where we want to go in today's NFL.

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I love checking this place out and seeing waterheads spouting off stat anomalies as if they are evidence we suddenly have a future hall of fame QB on the roster. 

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This seems like a good place to put in a quote from a Greg Cosell assessment:

"So cut to the chase: what must Allen do to become great?

"The key thing for him is going to be able to make throws that are viewed as routine in the NFL," Cosell said. "Because you can't live on big plays. You can't live on quote, unquote special plays. Quarterbacks become great making routine plays. I think back to quarterbacks like Troy Aikman, who when it was third-and-7, he'd hit his tight end Jay Novacek for eight yards and get a first down. You're not going to see those plays on SportsCenter. Those are the kinds of plays that quarterbacks have to make. Tom Brady, and I know we're talking about arguably the greatest of all time, but you saw a great example this past week with a great game plan when they pretty much kept throwing five-yard passes, six-yard passes, seven-yard passes. Those are the kinds of things that you have to be able to do. The spectacular plays, he can make those plays, Josh Allen, but he has to be able to make the routine plays. Because at the end of the day, you can be 100 things, but if you can't throw the ball where you want to consistently then you don't have anything as a quarterback."

 

I think this echoes something I've said repeatedly:  Allen has Got to improve his ability to 'Make the Bunnies' and make them accurately - the short passes or backfield dump-offs that move the sticks. In the end, it is whether or not he improves that skill, that will drive his NFL career trajectory.  And I've seen improvement, but he's not where he needs to be...yet.

 

The question is, does he whole-heartedly buy into that as an objective, or is he going to become a "deep threat Darryl" mad-bomber type.  Because I don't think that will get us where we want to go in today's NFL.

 

 

Interesting perspective.  Might be valid, although I think the data set is so limited.  Lets look at it another way.

 

For whatever reason, especially considering our O line, our inability for RBs to routinely run the ball, penalties, bad WRs, we are constantly in 2nd and long, 3rd and long. Cossell is correct, he does look for the big play a lot.  The last play of Miami he could have hit McCoy for an easy completion short but with a lot of room to run for the first,  but he didn't check it down, he goes for first downs and TDs. Bills QBs over the years have checked down way too much so often we see the Bills get 7 yards when they need 8.  Allen doesn't do that.  To me it is refreshing,and certainly alot more exciting.  Brady can dial up 9 yards on a 3rd and 8 consistently, last 10 years Bills would get 7.  Brady has been in the same system and has had great possession WRs and RBs for that matter. 

 

Allen has played 8 games, his #1 WR was just a bust he was cut.   We all know the quality of the rest of our WRs and TEs.  Let Allen stay in the system, actually go into next season as the bona fide #1, get some chemistry with receivers. Maybe just maybe you are seeing that with Zay Jones.  He missed a wide open Jones in the end zone and that was accuracy, that was miscommunication/lack of chemistry,  Allen starts trusting his receivers more he wont run as much and will be more confident to check down.

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On 12/2/2018 at 6:22 PM, PeterDude said:

 

He's going to get another season and a half at least. 

 

Drew Brees didn't start becoming Drew Brees until his 4th season. 

 

On 12/2/2018 at 7:44 PM, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

His running IS a weapon.  I agree.  But it’s not being purposefully weaponzied.  His running is more of a parachute/fail-safe device.

 

I'm not at all sure you're correct about this. 

 

It appears to me that Daboll has made some purposeful play design changes with Foster and McKenzie.  He is using their deep threat to clear out the middle of the field.    DB have to respect that deep threat and it's leaving a lot of space in the middle of the field for Allen to exploit with his legs.

 

If it weren't an aspect of Daboll's play design I don't think so many of those plays would be there.  They weren't earlier in the year when we didn't have the deep speed threat at wideout. 

 

I think there is some purposeful weaponization going on. 

 

If you want to argue that Allen's runs aren't the first read or maybe the 2nd, then you would have to apply the same logic and say that a QB who takes short throws over the middle when the deep threats are locked down is also taking a parachute/fail-safe device.

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3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

3 man rush from the Jets, Allen should have more time to decide where to go with it (not that he didnt have enough time for the read the guy suggests). With more time, I think he checks it down to DiMarco? coming in from the top.

 

 

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The Bills have no offensive system. There are no staple plays they gain easy yardage on. 

 

How many pregames does Murphy, Kelso, Chris Brown and Simon waste saying worn out phrases like we have to “get Shady going”.

 

The truth is McCoy is done, Ivory is 200 years old and Murphy is a career practice squader running behind a below average line. 

 

So this offense goes as Allen makes it go on broken plays. Running around looking for busted coverages and scrambling lanes.

 

Greg Cossel said on Friday that Allen is not seeing the field, so he is falling back on hero ball, and that means you get the spectacular mixed with scatter shot accuracy. 

 

That’s why I said last week that Allen needs to hit the weight room and squeeze every last drop out of his athletic ability and play like a young Roethlisberger extending plays. He’s never going to pick you apart like Steve Young. 

 

 

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