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ESPN 2018 NFL Preview - Bills Ranked 32nd with Super Bowl Chance of 0.1%


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More bad news:  Tannehill is back in Miami, and was more or less the same old Tannehill, kind of the Scottish Tyrod. We'll know a lot more about the Jets this time tomorrow night, but if Darnold looks decent, well, with the Browns looking competitive today, I'd have to say that "worst team in football right now" honor falls to us with no real competition.

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Barnwell: Ranking NFL's 0-2 teams from eliminated to (barely) alive

 

Bill Barnwell ESPN Staff Writer
 
The NFL season is two weeks old, and a minimum of six organizations are already essentially eliminated from postseason contention. It seems crazy to think that a team could go from dreaming about a deep playoff run to thinking about the 2019 offseason in a matter of 14 days, but history tells us that a team can ruin its season quicker than you might think.
 
Since the NFL adopted its current divisional format in 2002, just over 11 percent of teams that start the year 0-2 end up making the playoffs. The Saints pulled off the feat last season by turning their defense around. It also helped that their schedule got easier, given that the season started with games against the Vikings and Patriots. After that 0-2 start, the Saints didn't lose again before Thanksgiving, rolling off eight straight wins.
 
If any of this year's seven 0-2 teams can pull that off, they'll be back in playoff contention, but history tells us that no more than one will play past December.
 
Let's sort through them in order of their chances of returning to respectability and competing for a postseason berth, and pick one team from the bunch to survive its 0-2 start to make the playoffs. I'm including each team's preseason playoff odds and current playoff odds, according to the ESPN Football Power Index.
 
 
Preseason playoff odds: 6.8 percent
Current playoff odds: 0.3 percent
 
The Bills are in disarray. They trailed by a total of 48 points at halftime across their first two games, the worst mark in 40 years. They've already changed quarterbacks, benching Nathan Peterman for rookie first-round pick Josh Allen. Coach Sean McDermott took away defensive playcalling duties from Leslie Frazier during an eventful halftime last Sunday, with Vontae Davisretiring and heading home before the second half began. LeSean McCoy has cracked rib cartilage and had two first downs on 21 touches before getting injured. That Andy Dalton touchdown pass from Week 17 last year feels like it might as well be a decade ago.
 
This shouldn't be a surprise. Last year's Bills team was supposed to be the first season in a rebuild, but a team with 6.4 Pythagorean wins pulled out four wins in six games down the stretch to go 9-7 and sneak into the postseason. This season shouldn't be much better. After trading away several bloated contracts and enduring the retirements of players such as Richie Incognito and Eric Wood, general manager Brandon Beane is eating $53.9 million in dead money this year, which is one of the largest single-season figures in league history. The Bills are nearly paying as much in dead money to ghosts as they are to their entire offense ($57.0 million). They'll hit 2019 with $90 million in cap space before letting anyone else leave.
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