QBASE says Josh Allen likely to suck

[TheElectricCompany]

5 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

There is no question that Allen is a better athlete and has a stronger arm. It's like saying the 4.5 guy is the same as the 4.3 player. They are both fast but there is still a difference and I don't think posters understand how rare the combination of traits Allen has. He is a very unique package and it is not hard to see why NFL coaches would want to take a chance on a special talent.

I'm not certain that accuracy can be further developed, but the intrigue of an accurate Josh Allen is going to be too much for any team to pass up. 

The Bills at 12 are his floor. 

[racketmaster]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

People fall inlove with the physical attributes.  There's no convincing them otherwise, until they fail.   

 

The Raiders talked themselves out of every possible concern they might have had about Jamarcus Russell.   

 

I have a lot of confidence that McBeane are completely on top of this.   If they take Allen it'll be because they know several things we don't know.   

 

I put some stock in the Wonderlic scores, and it's interesting that Allen had the highest of the QBs.   Of course, Fitz was off the charts on the Wonderlic and he still threw every critical INT he could.  

Remember, Russell lacked work ethic and once he got paid he decided to not put in the work. If he had the right mental focus we may not be using him as an example of a bust. 

 

Fitz made poor decisions and lacked arm talent. He had to throw his entire weight into his throws to put zip on it and when he could not step up the ball had too much air under it. But he was extremely smart and could read coverages quickly. 

[jrober38]

4 hours ago, racketmaster said:

It's still not the same. It would be like saying Big Ben and Derek Carr have the same body type. Allen has the ability to shake defenders off him because he is so big and strong. 

 

It is the same though. Both guys have prototypical size for the position. Allen being two inches taller means nothing. 

 

Derek Carr is 6'2, 215 pounds. It makes no sense to pretend comparing him to Big Ben who is 6'5 and probably 250. 

 

Kyle Boller was 6'3, 235 pounds with 4.65 speed and a bazooka for an arm. Allen is 6'5, 237 pounds with 4.8 speed. He was just as impressive a physical specimen as Allen, and he climbed boards dramatically through the pre draft process, winding up as a mid 1st round pick. He was a freak athlete with speed, agility, a big body and a huge arm, and none of it mattered in the NFL. Given his height, you can argue he was better built than Allen given their nearly identical weight. 

 

Boller never overcame his accuracy problems and was a colossal NFL bust. 

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

People fall inlove with the physical attributes.  There's no convincing them otherwise, until they fail.   

 

The Raiders talked themselves out of every possible concern they might have had about Jamarcus Russell.   

 

I have a lot of confidence that McBeane are completely on top of this.   If they take Allen it'll be because they know several things we don't know.   

 

I put some stock in the Wonderlic scores, and it's interesting that Allen had the highest of the QBs.   Of course, Fitz was off the charts on the Wonderlic and he still threw every critical INT he could.  

 

I'll never understand it.

 

If Josh Allen was 6'1, 215 pounds like Baker Mayfield, he'd be nothing more than a late round pick. Do those 4 inches really make any difference in the NFL?

 

I don't think they do. 

[racketmaster]

8 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

It is the same though. Both guys have prototypical size for the position. Allen being two inches taller means nothing. 

 

Derek Carr is 6'2, 215 pounds. It makes no sense to pretend comparing him to Big Ben who is 6'5 and probably 250. 

 

Kyle Boller was 6'3, 235 pounds with 4.65 speed and a bazooka for an arm. Allen is 6'5, 237 pounds with 4.8 speed. He was just as impressive a physical specimen as Allen, and he climbed boards dramatically through the pre draft process, winding up as a mid 1st round pick. He was a freak athlete with speed, agility, a big body and a huge arm, and none of it mattered in the NFL. Given his height, you can argue he was better built than Allen given their nearly identical weight. 

 

Boller never overcame his accuracy problems and was a colossal NFL bust. 

 

I'll never understand it.

 

If Josh Allen was 6'1, 215 pounds like Baker Mayfield, he'd be nothing more than a late round pick. Do those 4 inches really make any difference in the NFL?

 

I don't think they do. 

Kyle Boller and Allen share some similarities  but Allen is still the bigger stronger player. Boller surprised scouts by showing up at combine at 234lbs and I don’t believe he continued playing at that weight. Plus, Boller had a 48% completion rate in college as compared to Allen’s 56%. That alone should end the discussion because that would be like ignoring the completion percentage between Allen and Rosen. Similar speed but Allen scored a 37 on wonderlic to Boller’s 27. There are also more differences in their background but the point is Allen is a better overall prospect. Allen may still fail but so could any of these qbs. 

 

And as side note, Boller has been listed at 220lbs on NFL.com for his career stats and that weight is much more indicative of the player I saw play in the NFL. The combine weight was manufactured weight and did not last throughout his playing career. Allen is country strong and has a BIg Ben frame. He will likely be in the 240s as far as weight as his career goes along and would never play at 220lbs. 

Edited April 4, 2018 by racketmaster

[Scorp83]

22 hours ago, stuvian said:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/04/03/josh-allens-red-flag-is-the-obvious-his-stats-stink/

"QBASE Says Josh Allen is going to suck" 

 

You don't say...

21 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Because if he figures it out, he'll likely be the best QB of the class. 

He has every QB beat in the physical tools department, and that matters to many teams. 

I like his potential, and he could be molded by the right coach, but he could really benefit from riding the pine for a year or two. He's certainly a boom/bust type prospect. Being smart, huge and having a howitzer under your right shoulder will always put you high in the draft. 

 

As a Bills fan.... why do you want to go through that?!?! C'mon brah... let's not get a headache if we don't have to. We have a shot to draft a really good QB, let's not waste it on a headache. We've had one for 18 years!

21 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said:

The NFL is not a perfectly rational business. 6'5, 235 lb, smart and a bazooka arm will always be appealing, just like a 6'7, 310lb "dancing bear" tackle. 

There are always a few coaches who think they can be the ones to develop a player past their flaws. 

I'm not going to pretend that I've watched "tape" on Allen, but if he's graded so highly, he can't be that bad throwing the ball. 

It is true that if he fails, it will likely be because of his field vision or accuracy issues. Injury (at his size)or character concerns are unlikely. 

Right now, there is a team high in the 1st that is drooling over the prospect of Allen as their future QB. 

And their GM will be fired in 2 years

[Brand J]

These charts are courtesy of PFF. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Qbase said same about Ryan and Brees In 2015, but RG3 is ahead of Manning and Rodgers. 

 

Ponder over Carr? 

 

This is is meaningless junk... 

 

 

QBASE Projections for Top 100 Picks Since 1997
Player	Drafted By	Pick	Year	Predicted DYAR in Years 3-5	Actual DYAR in Years 3-5
Philip Rivers	SD	4	2004	2317	2679
Carson Palmer	CIN	1	2003	2266	2268
Donovan McNabb	PHI	2	1999	1946	1075
Russell Wilson	SEA	75	2012	1561	503*
Robert Griffin	WAS	2	2012	1519	-374*
Peyton Manning	IND	1	1998	1463	3922
Byron Leftwich	JAC	7	2003	1200	369
Aaron Rodgers	GB	24	2005	1198	1891
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	11	2004	1193	1381
John Beck	MIA	40	2007	1151	-143
Matthew Stafford	DET	1	2009	1125	3021
Andrew Luck	IND	1	2012	1076	879*
Chad Pennington	NYJ	18	2000	1069	2631
Christian Ponder	MIN	12	2011	1061	-188**
Daunte Culpepper	MIN	11	1999	1061	1620
Player	Drafted By	Pick	Year	Predicted DYAR in Years 3-5	Actual DYAR in Years 3-5
Cade McNown	CHI	12	1999	972	0
Teddy Bridgewater	MIN	32	2014	945	--***
Jay Cutler	DEN	11	2006	936	831
Danny Wuerffel	NO	99	1997	928	-160
Matt Leinart	ARI	10	2006	915	-56
Eli Manning	NYG	1	2004	892	1179
Jason Campbell	WAS	25	2005	891	666
Brian Brohm	GB	56	2008	853	0
Tim Tebow	DEN	25	2010	849	-9
Geno Smith	NYJ	39	2013	839	--***
Kevin Kolb	PHI	36	2007	830	33
Kellen Clemens	NYJ	49	2006	800	-92
Jake Plummer	ARI	42	1997	790	266
Cam Newton	CAR	1	2011	781	316**
Alex Smith	SF	1	2005	771	-763
Player	Drafted By	Pick	Year	Predicted DYAR in Years 3-5	Actual DYAR in Years 3-5
Drew Brees	SD	32	2001	737	1822
Vince Young	TEN	3	2006	690	616
Derek Carr	OAK	36	2014	641	--***
Sam Bradford	STL	1	2010	617	692
Colt McCoy	CLE	85	2010	610	-19
Andrew Walter	OAK	69	2005	583	-227
JaMarcus Russell	OAK	1	2007	535	-834
Johnny Manziel	CLE	22	2014	486	--***
Blake Bortles	JAC	3	2014	471	--***
Matt Schaub	ATL	90	2004	437	1181
David Greene	SEA	85	2005	432	0
Tim Couch	CLE	1	1999	428	-366
Nick Foles	PHI	88	2012	392	264*
Charlie Frye	CLE	67	2005	368	-271
David Carr	HOU	1	2002	365	-215
Player	Drafted By	Pick	Year	Predicted DYAR in Years 3-5	Actual DYAR in Years 3-5
Brandon Weeden	CLE	22	2012	325	21*
Brady Quinn	CLE	22	2007	262	-207
Drew Stanton	DET	43	2007	257	174
Quincy Carter	DAL	53	2001	248	263
Chad Henne	MIA	57	2008	220	183
Matt Barkley	PHI	98	2013	208	--***
Akili Smith	CIN	3	1999	198	-55
Shaun King	TB	50	1999	183	-102
Joey Harrington	DET	3	2002	178	-149
EJ Manuel	BUF	16	2013	170	--***
Ryan Mallett	NE	74	2011	168	120*
Matt Ryan	ATL	3	2008	158	3438
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	48	2010	153	-5
Brock Huard	SEA	77	1999	139	-8
Andy Dalton	CIN	35	2011	138	778**
Player	Drafted By	Pick	Year	Predicted DYAR in Years 3-5	Actual DYAR in Years 3-5
Ryan Leaf	SD	2	1998	105	-727
Jim Druckenmiller	SF	26	1997	54	0
Colin Kaepernick	SF	36	2011	22	882**
Blaine Gabbert	JAC	10	2011	14	-429**
Jake Locker	TEN	8	2011	2	-102**
Chris Redman	BAL	75	2000	-45	-67
Rex Grossman	CHI	22	2003	-82	-175
Dave Ragone	HOU	88	2003	-114	0
Pat White	MIA	44	2009	-155	0
Brian Griese	DEN	91	1998	-172	2004
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5	2009	-184	-649
J.P. Losman	BUF	22	2004	-192	-310
Josh Freeman	TB	17	2009	-194	-154
Kyle Boller	BAL	19	2003	-222	56
Brodie Croyle	KC	85	2006

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/introducing-qbase

 

Edited April 4, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Chicken Boo]

All Josh Allen needs is the right situation.  

 

The reality is that there are very few NFL coaches that can properly develop a young QB.

 

I'm not a Patrick Mahomes fan, but I have little doubt that he'll find success with Andy Reid.

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said:

These charts are courtesy of PFF. 

 

It's amazing how much size matters in the NFL QB evaluations.

 

Put Mayfield's skill set in Allen's body and he's the hands down #1 pick in the draft. 

 

Put Allen's skill set in Mayfield's body and he struggles to get drafted. 

 

49 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Qbase said same about Ryan and Brees In 2015, but RG3 is ahead of Manning and Rodgers. 

 

Ponder over Carr? 

 

This is is meaningless junk... 

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/introducing-qbase

 

 

It might not be great at predicting success, but it's pretty darn good at predicting who the busts will be. 

Edited April 4, 2018 by jrober38

[HappyDays]

12 hours ago, racketmaster said:

Kyle Boller and Allen share some similarities  but Allen is still the bigger stronger player

 

Okay but if Kyle Boller had been 2 inches taller and 25 pounds heavier he still would have been a bust. He didn't fail because his arm wasn't strong as Allen's, he failed because he had horrible accuracy and decision making. It would have made zero difference if he was physically the same as Allen.

 

There's a minimum arm strength you need to be a good starting NFL QB, no arguing that. More arm strength than that minimum is just gravy. If you can throw the deep out without the CB jumping in front of the ball you're fine. Brady doesn't have the strongest arm but it's strong enough, and his processing speed gives him an advantage anyways. If Allen's processing speed is just a half second slower than average, his arm strength advantage disappears. And judging from his college tape he definitely does not process things well on the field.

 

NFL passing offenses are about timing and anticipation, not launching the ball as far down the field as possible. Alex Smith is not known for elite arm strength by any means, but he was statistically the best deep ball thrower in the NFL last year. I don't understand why people care so much about arm strength. It's the last thing I would scout for assuming the minimum standard is met. Some elite QBs have great arm strength, but they all have great accuracy and decision making. That's what you look for in a 1st round QB.

Edited April 4, 2018 by HappyDays

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Okay but if Kyle Boller had been 2 inches taller and 25 pounds heavier he still would have been a bust. He didn't fail because his arm wasn't strong as Allen's, he failed because he had horrible accuracy and decision making. It would have made zero difference if he was physically the same as Allen.

 

There's a minimum arm strength you need to be a good starting NFL QB, no arguing that. More arm strength than that minimum is just gravy. If you can throw the deep out without the CB jumping in front of the ball you're fine. Brady doesn't have the strongest arm but it's strong enough, and his processing speed gives him an advantage anyways. If Allen's processing speed is just a half second slower than average, his arm strength advantage disappears. And judging from his college tape he definitely does not process things well on the field.

 

NFL passing offenses are about timing and anticipation, not launching the ball as far down the field as possible. Alex Smith is not known for elite arm strength by any means, but he was statistically the best deep ball thrower in the NFL last year. I don't understand why people care so much about arm strength. It's the last thing I would scout for assuming the minimum standard is met. Some elite QBs have great arm strength, but they all have great accuracy and decision making. That's what you look for in a 1st round QB.

 

Measurables mean nothing in my eyes. Quarterbacks get paid to pass the ball. That's all that matters. 

 

As you said, are they accurate and can they read a defense? Without those skills, I don't care how big, tall and fast a guy is because he'll never be an elite NFL passer. 

[racketmaster]

It’s hard to trust a measurement that has Danny Wuefferl that high. Lol He had one of the weakest arms I’ve ever seen in the NFL. 

 

I like stats but it can be a dangerous game using college stats to project NFL success. Their are 22 players on the field at a time and there is only a small percentage of them who are actually NFL quality players. There is no consistency amongst the players on the field. At any given time there could be a future all pro playing next to a future Sales Manager. 

 

We have seen college qbs with tremendous college stats fail in the NFL and we have seen college qbs with less than adequate stats excel in the NFL. Allen has a chance to succeed because he has a rare combination of NFL level physical traits. He also has intelligence and work ethic making it possible for him to fully take advantage of his skill set. No guarantees of success but the hate for Allen by some fans seems over the top. 

 

Personally, I’d probably take Darnold and Mayfield over Allen but he would be my 3rd choice over Rosen (mostly because of serious durability concerns as well as whether he has enough competive DNA in him). 

Edited April 5, 2018 by racketmaster