History of Mock Draft Accuracy

[eball]

I did a little Googling and couldn't find any sort of overall rating of "expert" mock drafters over the years, but you can find various "reviews" of mock drafts from the past several years and one thing certainly stands out -- they all suck.

 

It's really unbelievable the traction "mock drafting" gets and how much time and energy is spent on the process.  Some guys put out nearly ten different mock drafts!

 

I'd love it if someone went back over the past 5 years and put together a comprehensive review of the "expert" mock drafters -- I'd bet we would see just how bad these guys really are, and how pretty much anyone could throw darts at the names of 40 players and have just as good a record.

 

I'd grade the mock drafts on three criteria (two positive, one negative):

 

1 - Correct pick to correct team

2 - Correct player position (QB, RB, etc.) selected by team, even if not the specific player predicted

3 - Negative points for players not selected in the 1st round

 

Trades nullify the picks involved.

 

Anybody want to take up this research project?  It would be a hell of a lot more interesting than reading about the current mock drafts!

 

[richNjoisy]

here you go:

 

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/mock.scores.shtml

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

Mock drafts are supposed to be fun opinions and of course most of them suck, if they could predict the future they wouldn't be using it for mock drafts, well I would but that's besides the point.

[GunnerBill]

I don't know about scoring others but I always score my final version (I do 3 a year - one before FA, one after the initial wave of FA and a final one draft week itself).  I mark it in my draft day 1 review post which is a TBD drive staple in recent years.  

 

I scored pretty well in 2016, I think I got 6 exact matches and another 8-10 or so position matches.  I was less successful last year with only 3 exact matches but Bandit smashed it out of the park last year.... I think he matched 8 exactly... was one of the outstanding mocks you will see.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

I had 10 exact matches in 2015, and haven't been quite as good since. I got 7 in 2016. Not sure about last year, I didn't finalize a mock before the draft.

Edited March 8, 2018 by BuffaloHokie13

[Augie]

17 minutes ago, richNjoisy said:

here you go:

 

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/mock.scores.shtml

 

Mayock is tied for 3rd based on a 5 year average, very respectable. The ESPN guys are conspicuously absent.  Are they that bad? Not eligible? Or do they manage to cover their tracks in some way?  (Which might be a good idea...) 

[richNjoisy]

I think thehuddlereport has removed some names as being eligible. I definitely recall Kiper being on their list in the past (he was middle of the road as I recall)

[Reed83HOF]

FWIR, I believe Rick Gosselin did it better than anyone else and he stopped doing them a few years back. In fact, his 2006 is regarded as one of the best ones ever:

 

Team Player Pos. College 
1. Houston Reggie Bush HB Southern California - Bush was the best player in college football last season and has a Heisman Trophy as proof. He's the best player in this draft and likely will have the first overall pick as proof. Pencil him in today as the 2006 NFL Rookie of the Year. 
2. New Orleans Matt Leinart QB Southern California 
3. Tennessee Jay Cutler QB Vanderbilt 
4. N.Y. Jets Mario Williams DE North Carolina State 
5. Green Bay A.J. Hawk OLB Ohio State 
6. San Francisco Vernon Davis TE Maryland 
7. Oakland Vince Young QB Texas 
8. Buffalo D'Brickashaw Ferguson OT Virginia - If there's a run of quarterbacks at the top of the draft, as there is in this mock, an elite player is going to slide. In this case it's Ferguson, the best blocker on the board and a top-three value. 
9. Detroit Michael Huff CB/S Texas 
10. Arizona Haloti Ngata DT Oregon 
11. St. Louis Jimmy Williams CB Virginia Tech 
12. Cleveland Brodrick Bunkley DT Florida State 
13. Baltimore Jonathan Joseph CB South Carolina 
14. Philadelphia Ernie Sims OLB Florida State 
15. Denver Manny Lawson DE North Carolina State 
16. Miami Winston Justice OT Southern California 
17. Minnesota Chad Greenway OLB Iowa 
18. Dallas Santonio Holmes WR Ohio State - With two starting wideouts in their 30s, the Cowboys need some youth on the flank. Holmes brings big-play potential in the Terry Glenn mold, averaging 18.4 yards per catch last season. 
19. San Diego Antonio Cromartie CB Florida State  
20. Kansas City Tamba Hali DE Penn State 
21. New England Bobby Carpenter OLB Ohio State 
22. Denver Laurence Maroney HB Minnesota 
23. Tampa Bay John McCargo DT North Carolina State 
24. Cincinnati Donte Whitner S Ohio State 
25. N.Y. Giants DeAngelo Williams HB Memphis - A run on defensive players in the teens could push the bulk of the running-back board into the 20s. Good backs like Laurence Maroney and DeAngelo Williams could fall into the laps of good teams. 
26. Chicago Tye Hill CB Clemson 
27. Carolina LenDale White HB Southern California 
28. Jacksonville Ashton Youboty CB Ohio State 
29. N.Y. Jets Kamerion Wimbley DE Florida State 
30. Indianapolis Joseph Addai HB LSU 
31. Seattle Chris Chester G Oklahoma 
32. Pittsburgh Jason Allen CB/S Tennessee 

 

 

Also to make this a little more Billsy on the 2011 draft:

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/687612-2011-nfl-draft-meet-nfl-draft-king-rick-gosselin-of-dallas-morning-news

 

"According to an article that appeared in the Buffalo News, Mark Gaughan wrote that Dallas Morning News draft analyst Rick Gosselin gave the Buffalo Bills the only A+ grade in the draft in his analysis of the selections today.

Wrote Gosselin: The Bills had nine selections and five of them were above value for the round they were drafted: Williams, Hairston, the two Whites and Rogers. A good draft becomes great in the third day. The Bills hit for the cycle on Saturday. A+

According to a story ran by Chris Brown, lead journalist for Buffalo Bills.com, the only other NFL team that Gosselin awarded an A grade to was the Baltimore Ravens."

Edited March 8, 2018 by Reed83HOF

[JohnBonhamRocks]

So tough to project trades, too.