ColoradoBills Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 After the recent new QB contracts there has been a lot of discussion about the high dollar amounts vs. Team Salary Cap increases. I did some digging and found it interesting. I decided to start a thread showing what I found. All info was found using Spotrac contracts and cap increase numbers. I used current QB veterans on non-rookie contracts. I did not list Tom Brady (at 20 million per year we all know he is under a very "team friendly" contract) and players such as Bradford who has injury concerns. The simple way to look at what I did is this, I took QB contracts of the past and added the % increase of Team Cap increases since the year the contract was signed and show the new "Base 2018" dollar amounts. An example is as follows, Ryan Tannehill signed a $19.25 million per year contract in 2015. Since then the cap has increased 24.5%. All things being equal except for the Team Cap increase one could say that if that 2015 contract was signed in 2018 Tannehills' Average Salary would be $23.96 million! An interesting item is Alex Smith's 2014 contract vs. 2018 contract. In 2014 Smith signed a $17.0 million per year contract. With the 33.8% Team Salary cap increase since then, the contract would be worth $22.75 Million per year. His new 2018 contract is $23.5 which is a difference of 750k. I settled on using "average salary" as the basis of my calculations because of the complicated way contracts can be written made it hard to do a comparative calculation using any other data. If this thread stays active I will edit/update any new 2018 QB contracts. I added "Rookie Contract" info and compared EJ Manuels 2013 contract compared to 2018. Year Salary Cap % Change 2018 $178.0 million Base 2017 $167.0 million 6.6 2016 $155.3 million 14.6 2015 $143.3 million 24.5 2014 $133.0 million 33.8 2013 $123.0 million 44.7 2012 $120.6 million 47.6 2011 $120.0 million 48.3 2010 Uncapped N/A Year Signed Avg in Millions 2018 Base QB 2013 22.00 31.90 Rodgers 44.7% 20.75 30.03 Ryan 2014 17.00 22.75 Smith 33.8% 16.00 21.41 Dalton 2015 21.90 27.26 Wilson 24.5% 21.85 27.20 Big Ben 21.00 26.14 Eli Manning 20.80 25.89 Rivers 20.76 25.84 Newton 19.25 23.96 Tannehill 2016 24.60 28.20 Luck 14.6% 24.25 27.79 Brees 22.13 25.36 Flacco 2017 27.00 28.78 Stafford 6.6% 25.00 26.65 Carr 2018 23.5 Base Smith Base 27.5 Base Garappolo Base Cousins Base Brees Base Keenum Base Foles 19.05 5th yr option Bortles 2018 Rookie Contracts Round Pick Total Contract Signing Bonus 2018 Cap Hit Yearly Avg 1 1 $32,993,327 $22,075,147 $5,998,787 8,248,332 1 16 $12,763,047 $7,362,216 $2,320,554 3,190,762 1 32 $9,542,219 $5,019,796 $1,734,949 2,385,555 2 48 $5,791,802 $2,292,220 $1,053,055 1,447,951 3 80 $3,734,948 $910,579 $707,645 933,737 4 112 $3,091,917 $676,917 $649,229 772,979 2013 EJ Manuel Rookie Contract Round Pick Total Contract Signing Bonus 2018 Cap Hit Yearly Avg 1 16 $8,885,300 $4,842,036 $1,615,509 2,221,325 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan130 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Nice work. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, billsfan11 said: Nice work. Thank you Thanks. Something interesting I noticed is how the difference of rookie contract (EJ's 1st round, Pick 16) has only gone up 1 million per year since 2013. Comparatively speaking having a rookie QB signed in 2018 has become much more "cost effective" than it would of been in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Thanks. I've been wondering about this. Your data shows pretty clearly that the current cost of a QB isn't as outrageous as people think. As a percentage of total cap, QB salaries are staying more or less in line. It also shows that most teams are paying more or less the same amounts for a top 10 or even top 15 quarterback. It's just the going rate. So people shouldn't get so exercised about what they think Cousins will make. It is neither out of line nor surprising. It's just what it costs to take a chance on him being your future. And yes, rookie QBs are a real bargain, until they bust. Sure, you've gotten inexpensive quarterbacking, but unless they turn out to be Carson Wentz, you've wasted a couple years of the careers of all of your other players while you saved money on your QB. Dak Prescott wasn't any better than Taylor in 2017. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big C Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Thank you for sharing. The cap has gone up much quicker than I realized. I still don't think that paying your QB top dollar is the way to win championships (and the numbers across past SB champs agree), but it is important that we know Alex Smith is not valued any higher than he was 4 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: Thanks. I've been wondering about this. Your data shows pretty clearly that the current cost of a QB isn't as outrageous as people think. As a percentage of total cap, QB salaries are staying more or less in line. It also shows that most teams are paying more or less the same amounts for a top 10 or even top 15 quarterback. It's just the going rate. So people shouldn't get so exercised about what they think Cousins will make. It is neither out of line nor surprising. It's just what it costs to take a chance on him being your future. And yes, rookie QBs are a real bargain, until they bust. Sure, you've gotten inexpensive quarterbacking, but unless they turn out to be Carson Wentz, you've wasted a couple years of the careers of all of your other players while you saved money on your QB. Dak Prescott wasn't any better than Taylor in 2017. Right, Cousins signing a 28 million per year deal is "just the going rate". As to the rookies, well it's always been that way. No matter what anyone says it's a crapshoot. The only point I could make about rookies is if a team drafts rookie QBs in the 2nd or 3rd or 4th (Dak, Garappolo, etc) and they prove to be busts, dump them and move on. As cheap as rookies are (even a mid or later round 1st round pick) compared to a vet QB, it's not the end of the world. All that being said, I'm for the Bills getting a good QB no matter if it's a vet or thru the draft. 6 minutes ago, Big C said: Thank you for sharing. The cap has gone up much quicker than I realized. I still don't think that paying your QB top dollar is the way to win championships (and the numbers across past SB champs agree), but it is important that we know Alex Smith is not valued any higher than he was 4 years ago. The Alex Smith contract was the most shocking to me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 I am glad they changed the rookie pay scale so you don't break the bank on first year QBs that gave a high probability of not working out. Great analysis by the OP. QBs will always get a lot of $$$, nature of the beast. That's why I'd like to see Cousins here; you know he's able to play at a high level in the league so pay him the going rate and move ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: Right, Cousins signing a 28 million per year deal is "just the going rate". As to the rookies, well it's always been that way. No matter what anyone says it's a crapshoot. The only point I could make about rookies is if a team drafts rookie QBs in the 2nd or 3rd or 4th (Dak, Garappolo, etc) and they prove to be busts, dump them and move on. As cheap as rookies are (even a mid or later round 1st round pick) compared to a vet QB, it's not the end of the world. All that being said, I'm for the Bills getting a good QB no matter if it's a vet or thru the draft. The Alex Smith contract was the most shocking to me too. I agree about taking rookies in the third or fourth. Taking them in the second is a little pricey, but if you see one you feel really good about, even then. You can afford one in the third round every year until you find one, I suppose. The thing about rookie QBs and the cap is that rookies have gotten a lot cheaper relative to the cap, so it doesn't cost a lot of dollars to miss on one. On the other hand, since they're cheap, it makes the draft picks more valuable, so you hate to waste one on a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Fan in LA Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 (edited) This is very interesting information and is stirring the thought process for me. I would like to offer a thought about our situation here, and I'm not trying to start an argument. Let's suppose that if the Bills agreed to pick up Tyrod's salary for 2018, at something like $18.Mil he would in effect, with salary cap increases, be taking a cut in pay on a relative basis.... 18.Mil would put him solidly where a backup QB should be paid. If we did that, and then signed Kyle Lauletta to a rookie contract, and kept all our draft positions to improve team needs we might have something here folks,.........assuming Lauletta is the real deal, and who knows that......... I'm not a Tyrod fan, but I do realize it might be better to keep him for $18.Mil than roll the dice. He would be good backup........just saying............ Edited February 11, 2018 by B Fan in LA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 53 minutes ago, B Fan in LA said: This is very interesting information and is stirring the thought process for me. I would like to offer a thought about our situation here, and I'm not trying to start an argument. Let's suppose that if the Bills agreed to pick up Tyrod's salary for 2018, at something like $18.Mil he would in effect, with salary cap increases, be taking a cut in pay on a relative basis.... 18.Mil would put him solidly where a backup QB should be paid. If we did that, and then signed Kyle Lauletta to a rookie contract, and kept all our draft positions to improve team needs we might have something here folks,.........assuming Lauletta is the real deal, and who knows that......... I'm not a Tyrod fan, but I do realize it might be better to keep him for $18.Mil than roll the dice. He would be good backup........just saying............ I should of added high paid backup salaries in the original post. IMO a guy like TT is a tweener. If he moves on from Buffalo to another team as a "starter" he will get $18 or more per year. He will get that because currently that is what a minimum salary is for any QB starter. This is why I think there are so many vastly different views on Tyrod on this board. In a weird sense, both sides are right from "their" opinion. If he drops out of the starter category he will get what an good "backup" QB makes, more like 4-5 million. Spotrac has TT value set "as a starter" at $19.4 million a year. Highest Salaried Backup Quarterbacks QB Avg in Millions Signed/FA McCown $6,000,000 FA Foles $5,500,000 Signed Schaub $4,500,000 Signed Stanton $3,250,000 FA Henne $3,250,000 FA McCoy $3,000,000 Signed Fitzpatrick $3,000,000 FA Cassel $2,625,000 Signed Anderson $2,350,000 FA Jones $2,200,000 Signed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Fan in LA Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Well then, screw TT and his 18.Mil salary............... I'd rather have McCown around to complain about, and he'd be a better role model for a rookie QB. I think........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreggTX Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 I'm glad Miami pays Tannehill nearly as much as Brady gets. That works to our advantage. He's no better than TT IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 23 minutes ago, GreggTX said: I'm glad Miami pays Tannehill nearly as much as Brady gets. That works to our advantage. He's no better than TT IMHO. Tannehill is not a bad QB. I think he gets a bad wrap around here b/c he has played poorly against the Bills, and a lot of Bills fans only watch Bills football games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 ...yes, I am trolling... This is part of why we thank you so much for the trade. most of us KC fans think we are about to get high end QB play for 2-3% of our cap space for the next 3 seasons. Patrick Mahomes Current Contract Year Age Base Salary (Guaranteed) Bonuses Cap Number Cap % Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension Prorated Roster Workout Other Total $2,400,000 $10,086,152 $3,939,810 $0 $0 $16,425,962 2017 22 $465,000 $465,000 $2,521,538 $0 $0 $0 $2,986,538 1.8% 2018 23 $555,000 $1,211,635 $2,521,538 $656,635 $0 $0 $3,733,173 2.1% $13,439,424 ($9,706,251) 2019 24 $645,000 $1,958,270 $2,521,538 $1,313,270 $0 $0 $4,479,808 2.4% $9,706,251 ($5,226,443) 2020 25 $735,000 $2,704,905 $2,521,538 $1,969,905 $0 $0 $5,226,443 2.6% $5,226,443 $0 Embed This Contract <iframe src="https://overthecap.com/contract-embed/5594/" width="600" height="343" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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