At Last, a GM Who Values Comp Picks

[Thurman#1]

https://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/joe-b-7-senior-bowl-takeaways-from-buffalo-bills-hc-sean-mcdermott-and-gm-brandon-beane?page=2

 

 

 

"6) The Bills will be in on the compensatory picks in 2019
- For the first time since the subject was broached over and over again this year, Bills GM Brandon Beane finally admitted that he couldn’t do anything about getting the compensatory selections for Stephon Gilmore and Robert Woods in 2018 because “it was too far to do anything about it” when he walked in the door after the 2017 NFL Draft. But make no mistake — that will not be repeated by the Bills this offseason if Beane has any say about it. The Bills GM is a big believer in taking advantage of the compensatory picks when his team has a chance for them and admitted that they will be very cognizant of the moves they make with respect to that formula. That, along with Beane still being hesitant about their cap situation being where he wants it, leads me to believe that the Bills won’t be swinging big on free agency, and will likely sign players below the compensatory pick threshold."

 

 

At last, somebody gets it. Extra picks are extra chances. They're important, the smart teams value them, and Beane understands this. Excellent!!

 

And this tells us something about which FAs we'll try to pursue, as well.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

I don't believe it we could of had a extra third if the Bills would have cut Ducasse, Davis & Holmes by week 10 of last season.  Beane was in charge and he didn't make the necessary cuts to do so . Ducasse was a starter on the line but he was easily replaceable the others where just rotation guys. BTW we traded Darby for a 3 just think bout that.  Darby is more valuable then 3 journeymen rotation players.  Just doesn't make sense to me. 

[GunnerBill]

I'm not sure it influences as much this year because we are unlikely to have a high number of qualifying FAs leaving..... but years when you have people who are going to be high value starters elsewhere - like Woods and Gilmore..... you really should be taking advantage of the comp picks rather than signing Patrick DiMarco and Andre Holmes.  

 

In fairness to Whaley the one year he had multiple qualifying FAs leaving - Bradham, Searcy et al.... we made sure we took advantage and secured two comp picks.  The decisions to miss out last spring were on McDermott not Whaley.  

 

2 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

BTW we traded Darby for a 3 just think bout that.  Darby is more valuable then 3 journeymen rotation players.  Just doesn't make sense to me. 

 

Darby would have really struggled in this scheme.  I was saying that as far back as last January.  I think getting the 3rd for him was a really sound decision.  Gaines is a much better zone corner than Darby, not even close.   

Edited January 25, 2018 by GunnerBill

[NastyNateSoldiers]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

I'm not sure it influences as much this year because we are unlikely to have a high number of qualifying FAs leaving..... but years when you have people who are going to be high value starters elsewhere - like Woods and Gilmore..... you really should be taking advantage of the comp picks rather than signing Patrick DiMarco and Andre Holmes.  

 

In fairness to Whaley the one year he had multiple qualifying FAs leaving - Bradham, Searcy et al.... we made sure we took advantage and secured two comp picks.  The decisions to miss out last spring were on McDermott not Whaley.  

We had until week 10 to correct this so it falls on Beane.

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I'm not sure it influences as much this year because we are unlikely to have a high number of qualifying FAs leaving..... but years when you have people who are going to be high value starters elsewhere - like Woods and Gilmore..... you really should be taking advantage of the comp picks rather than signing Patrick DiMarco and Andre Holmes.  

 

In fairness to Whaley the one year he had multiple qualifying FAs leaving - Bradham, Searcy et al.... we made sure we took advantage and secured two comp picks.  The decisions to miss out last spring were on McDermott not Whaley.  

 

 

Darby would have really struggled in this scheme.  I was saying that as far back as last January.  I think getting the 3rd for him was a really sound decision.  Gaines is a much better zone corner than Darby, not even close.   

Darby plays in alot of zone in Schwartz defense. He looks pretty comfortable in his scheme which is very similar to Mcd D

[GunnerBill]

Just now, NastyNateSoldiers said:

We had until week 10 to correct this so it falls on Beane.

 

They couldn't get there by then.  Ducasse was their starting RG, they were starting to use DiMarco, Shaq's injury meant Ryan Davis was in the starting lineup and Andre Holmes was a key special teamer.  Had they been out of the playoff race they'd have made those cuts.  You don't sabotage seasons half way through for comp picks when you are in the running.  You have to do it by building the right way in March and April.  

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

 

Darby plays in alot of zone in Schwartz defense. He looks pretty comfortable in his scheme which is very similar to Mcd D

 

Philly are much better in man.  When in zone coverage this year they gave up the highest YAC to receivers in the NFL - they do play a fair bit of zone and part of that is that they have been in defending leads mode for much of the season.  But Darby's ability to read and react is not great for a zone corner.  If the trade of him for Gaines had been a straight up plus a 3rd I'd say that was one of the trades of the decade.  

Edited January 25, 2018 by GunnerBill

[Buddo]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They couldn't get there by then.  Ducasse was their starting RG, they were starting to use DiMarco, Shaq's injury meant Ryan Davis was in the starting lineup and Andre Holmes was a key special teamer.  Had they been out of the playoff race they'd have made those cuts.  You don't sabotage seasons half way through for comp picks when you are in the running.  You have to do it by building the right way in March and April.  

Playing Devil's Advocate here, but what about the Dareus trade?

 

Of the guys mentioned above, the only one who might have been missed, would be Davis.

 

Ducasse eventually played okay at the end of the season, but for the first half of the season was easily replaced by any larger sized burger-flipper.

 

Holmes looked 'as advertized' for precisely one game.

 

DiMarco could have been cut, a street FA RB signed, and Tolbert could have been thrown back in as a FB, and saved everyone a lot of anguish.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Buddo said:

Playing Devil's Advocate here, but what about the Dareus trade?

 

Of the guys mentioned above, the only one who might have been missed, would be Davis.

 

Ducasse eventually played okay at the end of the season, but for the first half of the season was easily replaced by any larger sized burger-flipper.

 

Holmes looked 'as advertized' for precisely one game.

 

DiMarco could have been cut, a street FA RB signed, and Tolbert could have been thrown back in as a FB, and saved everyone a lot of anguish.

 

But you don't take that risk. Holmes still did contribute to their coverage units which were pretty solid and Ducasse actually was playing reasonably well it isn't as easy as just saying "throw anyone out there" because Miller, who I am a fan of, had really, really struggled through 4 weeks before he was replaced.  Also Leonard Johnson ended up qualifying so we'd have had to cut a lot of guys.  To get even just a 7th round pick we had to cut 3 from:

 

Hyde - starting S

Poyer - starting S

Hauschka - starting K

Ducasse - stating RG

Johnson - starting nickel

DiMarco - fullback

Davis - rotational / latterly starting DE

Holmes - backup WR / STer 

 

So three of those get us ONE 7th rounder.  Once the roster had been built the way it had and the team was in contention there was very little Beane could do. It was on McDermott's roster building back in the spring.  

Edited January 25, 2018 by GunnerBill

[NastyNateSoldiers]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Philly are much better in man.  When in zone coverage this year they gave up the highest YAC to receivers in the NFL - they do play a fair bit of zone and part of that is that they have been in defending leads mode for much of the season.  But Darby's ability to read and react is not great for a zone corner.  If the trade of him for Gaines had been a straight up plus a 3rd I'd say that was one of the trades of the decade.  

I'm not arguing the fit I'm arguing the value. Btw Gaines wasnt traded for Darby. We could of possibly traded for Gaines for the 3rd we got for Darby and kept Sammy.  Gaines wasn't a fit in Wade system either and was coming off of an injury plagued season. Mof we probably could of gotten him for a 5th and kept that 3rd we got in return for Darby. 

 

I'm not a big fan of the trades we made this last offseason.  I think we could of done better.  Matthews is a average wr at best and was probably gonna get cut from philly roster . I would of asked for Mychal Kendricks instead .

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I'm not arguing the fit I'm arguing the value. Btw Gaines wasnt traded for Darby. We could of possibly traded for Gaines for the 3rd we got for Darby and kept Sammy.  Gaines wasn't a fit in Wade system either and was coming off of an injury plagued season. Mof we probably could of gotten him for a 5th and kept that 3rd we got in return for Darby. 

 

I'm not a big fan of the trades we made this last offseason.  I think we could of done better.  Matthews is a average wr at best and was probably gonna get cut from philly roster . I would of asked for Mychal Kendricks instead .

 

No I know it wasn't Gaines for Darby straight up that is why I said if it had have been. And yes I don't love Matthews either... he was worse than I even expected. I have always been a Gaines fan though... was delighted we got him.

Edited January 25, 2018 by GunnerBill

[BigBuff423]

I think this year will be a bit different just because we have so many UFAs walking out, you HAVE to replace them just by the law of numbers. As long as the replacements are the Hyde - Poyer type, I'm great with that...and for all the talk about trading Sammy, it's been a muted point that EJ Gaines was a revelation for the Bills Defense last year. That belongs entirely to Beane and his staff....and what also makes sense, is that I really don't think the Bills are trading up this year....had the Bills been close to top 10, then it's at least in the conversation. But, now I think they look for another path to find the solution for the QB issue.

[st pete gogolak]

4 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I don't believe it we could of had a extra third if the Bills would have cut Ducasse, Davis & Holmes by week 10 of last season.  Beane was in charge and he didn't make the necessary cuts to do so . Ducasse was a starter on the line but he was easily replaceable the others where just rotation guys. BTW we traded Darby for a 3 just think bout that.  Darby is more valuable then 3 journeymen rotation players.  Just doesn't make sense to me. 

This.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

This.

 

It's not true.  Cutting 3 players would have got us a 7th (at best) because we would still have been overall neutral.  If you wanted a 3rd you needed to cut FOUR of the players I listed above.  To do that you would have been cutting multiple starters.  

[CaptnCoke11]

Who cares.. We get one, great.  If not oh well 

[buffalostu2]

I value draft picks as much as everyone else however the talent on our team is in our coach, not our rookie GM who has yet to prove anything.   McD won in spite of Beane's roster moves IMO. 

 

I don't think you scale back McD's roster to get one extra pick for an unproven GM.  

Edited January 25, 2018 by buffalostu2

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I don't believe it we could of had a extra third if the Bills would have cut Ducasse, Davis & Holmes by week 10 of last season.  Beane was in charge and he didn't make the necessary cuts to do so . Ducasse was a starter on the line but he was easily replaceable the others where just rotation guys. BTW we traded Darby for a 3 just think bout that.  Darby is more valuable then 3 journeymen rotation players.  Just doesn't make sense to me. 

 

 

 

Yeah, he addressed that with Joe B.

 

Said he wasn't hired in time to deal with this in a way he'd have preferred. So maybe he'd have brought in other guys at the positions involved, in the draft or keeping bills FAs or bringing in lower level guys. Didn't have time to do that last year.

 

But - and this is what I love - he will be concerned with this in the future. 

 

Comp picks aren't a huge deal. But when you make good decisions on a lot of smaller issues, that's when teams improve.  This is an issue that affects bot the talent pool and the salary cap - drafted guys are cheaper. And they're finally going to start doing things the way the smart teams do.

 

I love it.

 

Edited January 25, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Lurker]

Yawn.    Frankly, I don't believe anything the FO (or the media) say in the off-season...

[SaviorPeterman]

This isn't really a good thing, just means the Bills will stick to their usual plan of signing '2nd tier' type FA players on the cheap and letting a bunch of current players walk in FA.

 

This also confirms my suspicion that 2018 may be the true 'tank' season for this new regime because it's going to be hard to win a lot of games with a roster full of rookies and 2nd year players. And even if Peterman makes huge strides might not be enough to come close to last years win loss record in 2018.

[Shaw66]

11 minutes ago, SaviorPeterman said:

This isn't really a good thing, just means the Bills will stick to their usual plan of signing '2nd tier' type FA players on the cheap and letting a bunch of current players walk in FA.

 

This also confirms my suspicion that 2018 may be the true 'tank' season for this new regime because it's going to be hard to win a lot of games with a roster full of rookies and 2nd year players. And even if Peterman makes huge strides might not be enough to come close to last years win loss record in 2018.

I think you have this completely backward.   

 

First, every team lets free agents walk.  The reality is that the best bargains in talent are coming out of college.   The quality of their play compared to their cost is much better.   So the smart teams often let guys walk after their rookie contracts.   It's the coaches' jobs to get good play out of rookies and second year guys.   

 

The smart free agent moves are NOT signing the high priced guys in the first week.  The smart are signing the guys available in June and even July, guys with experience in the league who fit what the coach is trying to do.   

 

Beane's been very clear about this since the day he arrived.   He believes you build the team with young players out of college, not with players you acquire in free agency.   

 

I think the Bill's did their serious house cleaning this year and now they start building.   That means they'll start acquiring players they want.  Some of those will cause some other guys to leave, like in the linebacker corps, and the offensive and defensive lines.   But that will be upgrades, not tanking. 

[thebandit27]

13 minutes ago, SaviorPeterman said:

This isn't really a good thing, just means the Bills will stick to their usual plan of signing '2nd tier' type FA players on the cheap and letting a bunch of current players walk in FA.

 

This also confirms my suspicion that 2018 may be the true 'tank' season for this new regime because it's going to be hard to win a lot of games with a roster full of rookies and 2nd year players. And even if Peterman makes huge strides might not be enough to come close to last years win loss record in 2018.

 

What???

 

They signed largely "2nd tier" players last year in Hyde, Poyer, and Leonard Johnson, and they had one of the top secondaries in the NFL.

 

Perhaps their approach of ignoring the over-valued FAs and prioritizing instead the under-valued guys is actually the prudent way to build through FA?