Alex Smith, assessment from a KC fan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, PolishDave said:

 

Every QB who isn't  making $17 million in 2018 and won't cost a draft pick.

McCown would be the most practical I would think.    Gives you slightly less ability than Smith perhaps - but not enough dropoff to care.

(....)

I don't see them building a dominant offense with any  of the other rentals either.    But, you can get some of those guys cheap.

 

Back when I was a bench scientist we had a saying: "when your experiment didn't work, no one ever says 'but he saved money!' "

I don't care who we can get cheap.  Bean has been ruthless in cuts and trades that let him slash cap, dump dead cap onto 2018, and stockpile picks.

Use them.  Use them all.  Draft a QB.  Sign a FA QB.  Trade for a QB, I don't care.

 

But if you're drafting a rookie, you better have a vet, and if you're dumping Tyrod as that vet, better be sure you're bringing in someone better.

 

So who are all these rental QB who have as much upside as Alex Smith but don't cost a draft pick and are cheaper?  You mention McCown

McCown is 38 years old and is on his 11th team in 15 years.  This is pretty much the first year he's looked like a decent QB, and he went out injured in early December.  He might return from a broken hand and wrist without missing a beat, or he might not. Who else you got?  Don't tell me "every QB not making $17M who won't cost a draft pick",  if we want to dump Taylor because so many guys would be better than both Tyrod and Alex Smith, who are those better guys?  Name rank and serial number! (JK, name though).

 

Seriously, if there are so many, it shouldn't be too tough

Edited January 11, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[reddogblitz]

On 1/9/2018 at 6:33 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To continue to develop as an offense, especially if they keep Dennison, the Bills have to make a QB change.  There's no question. 

 

That said, I really hate the idea of driving a QB change by what you can "sell to the fan base".  Nix got a lot of things wrong, but when he said "if you make decisions based on the fans, you'll be sitting with them soon", he was right.

 

It's the Russ Brandon approach.

[PolishDave]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Back when I was a bench scientist we had a saying: "when your experiment didn't work, no one ever says 'but he saved money!' "

I don't care who we can get cheap.  Bean has been ruthless in cuts and trades that let him slash cap, dump dead cap onto 2018, and stockpile picks.

Use them.  Use them all.  Draft a QB.  Sign a FA QB.  Trade for a QB, I don't care.

 

But if you're drafting a rookie, you better have a vet, and if you're dumping Tyrod as that vet, better be sure you're bringing in someone better.

 

So who are all these rental QB who have as much upside as Alex Smith but don't cost a draft pick and are cheaper?  You mention McCown

McCown is 38 years old and is on his 11th team in 15 years.  This is pretty much the first year he's looked like a decent QB, and he went out injured in early December.  He might return from a broken hand and wrist without missing a beat, or he might not. Who else you got?  Don't tell me "every QB not making $17M who won't cost a draft pick",  if we want to dump Taylor because so many guys would be better than both Tyrod and Alex Smith, who are those better guys?  Name rank and serial number! (JK, name though).

 

Seriously, if there are so many, it shouldn't be too tough

 

Didn't Shady post a list?

 

Bradford
McCown
Derek Anderson
Matt Moore
Kellen Clemmens
Brock Osweiller 
Matt Barkley
Tom Savage

Fitzpatrick

 

Honestly I would probably go with either McCown or Fitzpatrick if I am drafting a rookie that I want to start ASAP.

 

McCown starts until the rook is ready.     Then he mentors him.

 

I think both McCown and Fitz would be excellent mentors - as much as or more than Alex Smith would be.

 

If you want to gamble on a guy then go get Barkley or AJ McCarron.   And start them hoping they magically become awesome while you wait for the rookie to get up to speed.

But I think you still need another vet in here if you are going to get a Barkley or McCarron.    And I would still want that vet to be a cheap one who likes to pass a lot like Fitz or McCown.

 

I'm not going to be horribly upset if it is Smith.  I just look at him as serving a mentor role only, so why spend large amounts of valuable cap money.

 

I would really love for the Bills to get a vet and draft 2 quarterbacks in this draft. 21 and 22 if they are unsure between two guys.   Let them prove it on the field in practice.

 

[Thurman#1]

On 1/10/2018 at 12:08 PM, billsfan89 said:

 

I think Smith is a marginal upgrade from Tyrod, Smith's numbers and level of production in his first four years with the Chiefs were very similar to Tyrod's years here in Buffalo. Smith's numbers this past season in KC were stellar and certainly better than anything Tyrod has done. But look at what it took to produce a very good but not great season from Smith. 

 

1- He was in the 5th year in Andy Reid's (A dam good offensive coach's) system. 

2- He had a good offensive line. 

3- He had 3 dynamic offensive weapons (Hunt, Hill, and Kelce)

 

If Smith comes to Buffalo he will not be playing in the same system that he has grown comfortable with. He also will more than likely not have 3 dynamic offensive weapons and isn't guaranteed to play in front of a good O-line (Age and injuries could catch up to our O-line realistically.) I can see Smith coming here and not being that much better than Tyrod. And Smith coming here will cost the team at the very least a 2nd round pick and some cap space. Which will further impact the teams ability to build talent.  

 

 

I think you've got a reasonable argument here, but IMHO the difference between Tyrod and Smith isn't as marginal as you're making it out to be.

 

Look at completion percentages and YPA, two good stats to look at because they tend to show risk-taking (longer YPAs show more risk-taking) and efficiency (shorter YPAs tend to produce higher completion percentages). And I'll leave out Smith this year. Tyrod's last three years and Smith's last three before this year.

 

Smith's Completion Percentages:  2016: 67.1% (6th), 2015: 65.3% (11th), 65.3% (12th)

 

Tyrod's Completion Percentages: 2017: 62.6% (18th), 2016: 61.7% (21st), 2015: 63.7% (18th)

 

Smith's YPAs: 2016: 7.2 yards (tied for 17th), 2015: 7.4 yards(15th). 2014: 7.0 yards (tied for 27th)

 

Tyrod's YPAs: 2017: 6.7 yards (27th),  2016: 6.9 yards (26th), 2015: 8.0 yards (5th)

What you see is that Smith consistently has significantly higher completion percentages and also significantly higher YPAs.

 

Tyrod's first year YPA was terrific, but he couldn't maintain it, his deep ball accuracy for some reason dropped a lot after that first year.

 

And again, this leaves out Smith's terrific year this year.

[Thurman#1]

25 minutes ago, PolishDave said:

 

Didn't Shady post a list?

 

Bradford
McCown
Derek Anderson
Matt Moore
Kellen Clemmens
Brock Osweiller 
Matt Barkley
Tom Savage

Fitzpatrick

 

Honestly I would probably go with either McCown or Fitzpatrick if I am drafting a rookie that I want to start ASAP.

 

McCown starts until the rook is ready.     Then he mentors him.

 

I think both McCown and Fitz would be excellent mentors - as much as or more than Alex Smith would be.

 

If you want to gamble on a guy then go get Barkley or AJ McCarron.   And start them hoping they magically become awesome while you wait for the rookie to get up to speed.

But I think you still need another vet in here if you are going to get a Barkley or McCarron.    And I would still want that vet to be a cheap one who likes to pass a lot like Fitz or McCown.

 

I'm not going to be horribly upset if it is Smith.  I just look at him as serving a mentor role only, so why spend large amounts of valuable cap money.

 

I would really love for the Bills to get a vet and draft 2 quarterbacks in this draft. 21 and 22 if they are unsure between two guys.   Let them prove it on the field in practice.

 

 

 

He asked, I believe, for guys with as much upside as Alex Smith. Several of those guys you list don't have Tyrod's upside, much less Smith's. Osweiler? Barkley? Clemens? Derek Anderson? Please.

 

And I don't see any as being as good as Alex Smith, except maybe a healthy Bradford. Maybe. Better than Tyrod? Yeah, some of them. Cheaper, yeah. As much upside as Alex Smith? Please.

Edited January 11, 2018 by Thurman#1

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

6 hours ago, PolishDave said:

Didn't Shady post a list?

 

Bradford
McCown
Derek Anderson
Matt Moore
Kellen Clemmens
Brock Osweiller 
Matt Barkley
Tom Savage

Fitzpatrick

yup   

 

And based on a list like this we can guess as to why TT was retained for the '17 season.  

 

[PolishDave]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

He asked, I believe, for guys with as much upside as Alex Smith. Several of those guys you list don't have Tyrod's upside, much less Smith's. Osweiler? Barkley? Clemens? Derek Anderson? Please.

 

And I don't see any as being as good as Alex Smith, except maybe a healthy Bradford. Maybe. Better than Tyrod? Yeah, some of them. Cheaper, yeah. As much upside as Alex Smith? Please.

 

I didn't mean to nor am I suggesting all those guys have as much upside as Alex Smith.

 

Maybe some do - like the ones who haven't played much and are still young - like Barkley or McCarron.     I doubt it though.

 

Or perhaps maybe a McCown or Fitzpatrick has the year of their career and surpasses what Smith could do?   Also unlikely.

 

The think is, I wouldn't be bringing Smith in for possible chance to lead the team deep in the playoffs.   I would be bringing him in solely for the purpose of helping the rookie(s) learn the game quicker and better.     That is why I suggest that other QB's can do the same thing for a lot less money.

 

If you want to get the best veteran out there who still probably can't help you win a Superbowl, that guy is probably Smith.    I just don't see the value that's all.

 

I want the offense to become dominant where they destroy their opponents like the Patriots did to teams year after year.    I think you have to find your best Tom Brady clone through the draft not through free agency.   Alex Smith isn't that guy.    I honestly don't think he is much better than Tyrod.   Better yes.   But not by a mile.

 

If the Bills are going to pay up for a guy, I would rather see one of the Minnesota quarterbacks - not sure who will be available for sure though.

 

Bills could have had Smith the year KC got him.   They didn't.   And if they had, they would likely be getting rid of him this year for the same reasons KC will likely get rid of him.

[Manther]

On 1/9/2018 at 5:49 PM, mob16151 said:

I suspect Smith ends up in Chicago,and Glennon ends up in cleveland.

Oh, poor Cleveland

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/10/2018 at 6:02 AM, maryland-bills-fan said:

TT and Alex Smith are about the same in regards to their availability.  Both teams have some hope of getting a low draft choice for them (3- 5 ). Nobody will give that up for them because they will be available as UFA.   Along with 3-5 other similar quality guys.  Don't trade for Smith.

 

 

Great!  who are those other 3-5 similar quality guys?

 

I don't think that Alex Smith and TT are regarded as about the same for talent around the league.  It follows they are not the same in regards to availability.

 

18 hours ago, PolishDave said:

 

Didn't Shady post a list?

 

Bradford
McCown
Derek Anderson
Matt Moore
Kellen Clemmens
Brock Osweiller 
Matt Barkley
Tom Savage

Fitzpatrick

 

Honestly I would probably go with either McCown or Fitzpatrick if I am drafting a rookie that I want to start ASAP.

 

McCown starts until the rook is ready.     Then he mentors him.

 

I think both McCown and Fitz would be excellent mentors - as much as or more than Alex Smith would be.

 

If you want to gamble on a guy then go get Barkley or AJ McCarron.   And start them hoping they magically become awesome while you wait for the rookie to get up to speed.

But I think you still need another vet in here if you are going to get a Barkley or McCarron.    And I would still want that vet to be a cheap one who likes to pass a lot like Fitz or McCown.

 

I'm not going to be horribly upset if it is Smith.  I just look at him as serving a mentor role only, so why spend large amounts of valuable cap money.

 

I would really love for the Bills to get a vet and draft 2 quarterbacks in this draft. 21 and 22 if they are unsure between two guys.   Let them prove it on the field in practice.

 

 

These are the QB you're listing as having upside similar to Smith? 

 

Um, No. 

[mead107]

 No no no