Buffalo86 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) According to the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart: Bills give up: #10: 1300 pts Chiefs give up: #27: 680 pts #91: 136 pts Next year's 1st: 330 pts* (*Based on the guesstimate that the Chiefs will have the 25th pick next year, and the somewhat accepted rule that a 1st round pick this year = a 2nd round pick next year.) If you buy all of that, we gave up 1300 pts for 1146, a loss of 154. Per the chart, that's the equivalent of losing the #87 pick of the draft. In that sense, it looks like the Chiefs got the better end of the deal. But what of this value chart? Do other teams actually go by it? Here are the rest of tonight's deals, scored according to the value chart: 1. 49ers / Bears 49ers give up #2 (2600). Bears give up #3 (2200), 67 (255), 111 (72), and next year's 3rd (80*) - (2607). The 49ers win by a whopping 7 points. A very even trade according to the value chart. 2. Browns / Texans Browns give up #12 (1200). Texans give up #25 (720) and next year's 1st (330*) - (1050) Texans win by 150 points. By these metrics, they lost the #88 pick. Not a totally unexpected outcome when dealing with the Browns, and poor value according to the chart. 3. Seahawks / Falcons Seahawks give up #26 (700). Falcons give up #31 (600), #95 (120), and 249 (1) - (721). Seahawks win by 21 points. A very even trade according to the value chart. 4. Packers / Browns Packers give up #29 (640). Browns give up #33 (580) and #108 (79) - (659) Packers win this trade by 19 points. A very even trade according to the value chart. 5. Seahawks / 49ers Seahawks give up #31 (600). 49ers give up #34 (560), 111 (72) - (632). Seahawks win by 32 points, the equivalent of the #138 pick. Pretty even trade according to the value chart. Here are tonight's winners & losers according to Jimmy's value chart: Chiefs: +154 Texans: +150 Seahawks: +53 Packers: +19 Bears: -7 Falcons: -21 49ers: -25 Bills: -154 Browns: -169 Edited April 28, 2017 by Buffalo86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) @sharpfootball Bills (#27, 91 and 1st rd in 2018) got the better deal in #NFLDraft trade w Chiefs (#10) by getting 36.1 draft points & losing 19.9. Edited April 28, 2017 by MAJBobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fridge Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 It's definitely possible that KC finishes well enough that the trade is hardly a win. The real test will be whether or not Mahomes becomes a gamer. If he does, you can throw your points out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 It's definitely possible that KC finishes well enough that the trade is hardly a win. The real test will be whether or not Mahomes becomes a gamer. If he does, you can throw your points out the window. +100000000 Exactly correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill_with_it Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) According to the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart: Bills give up: #10: 1300 pts Chiefs give up: #27: 680 pts #91: 136 pts Next year's 1st: 330 pts* (*Based on the guesstimate that the Chiefs will have the 25th pick next year, and the somewhat accepted rule that a 1st round pick this year = a 2nd round pick next year.) If you buy all of that, we gave up 1300 pts for 1146, a loss of 154. Per the chart, that's the equivalent of losing the #87 pick of the draft. In that sense, it looks like the Chiefs got the better end of the deal. But what of this value chart? Do other teams actually go by it? Here are the rest of tonight's deals, scored according to the value chart: 1. 49ers / Bears 49ers give up #2 (2600). Bears give up #3 (2200), 67 (255), 111 (72), and next year's 3rd (80*) - (2607). The 49ers win by a whopping 7 points. A very even trade according to the value chart. 2. Browns / Texans Browns give up #12 (1200). Texans give up #25 (720) and next year's 1st (330*) - (1050) Texans win by 150 points. By these metrics, they lost the #88 pick. Not a totally unexpected outcome when dealing with the Browns, and poor value according to the chart. 3. Seahawks / Falcons Seahawks give up #26 (700). Falcons give up #31 (600), #95 (120), and 249 (1) - (721). Seahawks win by 21 points. A very even trade according to the value chart. 4. Packers / Browns Packers give up #29 (640). Browns give up #33 (580) and #108 (79) - (659) Packers win this trade by 19 points. A very even trade according to the value chart. 5. Seahawks / 49ers Seahawks give up #31 (600). 49ers give up #34 (560), 111 (72) - (632). Seahawks win by 32 points, the equivalent of the #138 pick. Pretty even trade according to the value chart. Here are tonight's winners & losers according to Jimmy's value chart: Chiefs: +154 Texans: +150 Seahawks: +53 Packers: +19 Bears: -7 Falcons: -21 49ers: -25 Bills: -154 Browns: -169 Yeah we probably should have received next years 2 or 3 rd in addition to what we received. Id say we were slightly fleeced because they knew we were in desperate need to add cheap bodies to the team due to our very precarious cap constraints, coupled with minimal picks, and quite a bit of needs to firld a functioning football team. Edited April 28, 2017 by Bill_with_it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 +100000000 Exactly correct Yep i said this with the Bears as well. No one will care what they gave up if Trubisky takes them to multiple championships in a 15-20 year career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Yep i said this with the Bears as well. No one will care what they gave up if Trubisky takes them to multiple championships in a 15-20 year career. We were stupid IMO. But we always try to get cute TJ Graham over Wilson, Passing on Dak, Passing on Cousins. We draft JPs and EJs and get scared off so we throw our hats on the Cardales of the draft and Fitzy's of FA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theRalph Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Tallying up points for draft value is the bean counter's way of assessing it. Foolishness and emotion is rampant in every NFL draft. The bills will take advantage of this. If there is a clear-cut number one quarterback next year, the bills two picks will enable them to select that quarterback. And Kansas City will finish last in the west this season. We were stupid IMO. But we always try to get cute TJ Graham over Wilson, Passing on Dak, Passing on Cousins. We draft JPs and EJs and get scared off so we throw our hats on the Cardales of the draft and Fitzy's of FA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zyg13 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 It's definitely possible that KC finishes well enough that the trade is hardly a win. The real test will be whether or not Mahomes becomes a gamer. If he does, you can throw your points out the window. KC will be lucky to win 9 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/the-comprehensive-guide-to-10-years-of-first-round-trades/ Here's a comprehensive list for all 1st round trades over the last 10 years. Compare away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fridge Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 KC will be lucky to win 9 games. People have been saying that since Reid took over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elite Poster Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) You know how middling teams get their franchise guy? By having the ammo to get him... This was the first draft in about 4 years that wasn't win now, but plan for the future. The last one got us EJ, but also Shady and Robert Woods. Quality players/circumstances come from all 7 rounds. Edited April 28, 2017 by Elite Poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theRalph Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Who precisely is we?? Sean McDermott is the new sheriff in town. This draft already looks like the antithesis of a Whaley plan. The current scouting staff has already cleaned out it's lockers. DW may well be leading them out the door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 OP's numbers are not what I've seen elsewhere. I have seen two different sources claim that the Bills come out ahead in the math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elite Poster Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Who precisely is we?? Sean McDermott is the new sheriff in town. This draft already looks like the antithesis of a Whaley plan. The current scouting staff has already cleaned out it's lockers. DW may well be leading them out the door Interesting that the KC gm said talks with Whaley past 5 days have been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
What a Tuel Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Yep i said this with the Bears as well. No one will care what they gave up if Trubisky takes them to multiple championships in a 15-20 year career. Same goes for if he isn't any good. They will have been fleeced for a 1st round pick by the Bills. Regardless though - What would we really prefer? Lattimore or White 2017 3rd Rounder 2018 1st Rounder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Tallying up points for draft value is the bean counter's way of assessing it. Foolishness and emotion is rampant in every NFL draft. The bills will take advantage of this. If there is a clear-cut number one quarterback next year, the bills two picks will enable them to select that quarterback. And Kansas City will finish last in the west this season. You assume that the Jets and Browns and possibly 49ers will be willing ot trade provided they don't need QBs... Hard to make that assumption.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) Same goes for if he isn't any good. They will have been fleeced for a 1st round pick by the Bills. Regardless though - What would we really prefer? Lattimore or White 2017 3rd Rounder 2018 1st Rounder I am not killing anything I like the trade. I am just saying all this value stuff reslly doesnt matter if a Team is thinking they are getting their Franchise QB because if they do what they gave up to get him wont matter one bit. Edited April 28, 2017 by MAJBobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fridge Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) Same goes for if he isn't any good. They will have been fleeced for a 1st round pick by the Bills. Regardless though - What would we really prefer? Lattimore or White 2017 3rd Rounder 2018 1st Rounder But that's not really it is, it? It's more... Lattimore or White 2017 3rd Rounder 2018 1st Rounder or Gilmore (Tyrod is cut) Mahomes or Gilmore (Tyrod is cut) Watson ...something to that effect. I think the people that are a little concerned about the Bills are more concerned because of the lack of consistent plan over the last 4 17 years. If you disagreed with some of the offseason moves in the past, then why is it lattimore vs white/1/3. It's only that based on earlier decisions that many may have also disagreed with. All of this is a roundabout way of saying that I'm definitely not excited. They have to prove me wrong and I'll be so happy when they finally do. If they really made this move as ammo for a top QB (it's not that simple, lol), I'll probably be happier a year from now. Edited April 28, 2017 by fridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) Brian Burke @bburkeESPN Follow More BUF really makes out. 1816 to 1300 JJ's with a 106% discount rate. 12 AV to 6 AV with an inf discount rate on my AV-based model (h/t @pfref) Football Perspective @fbgchase Follow More KC traded 27, 91 and 2018 1st to move up to 10. If you value 2018 1st at 24th ovrl, BUF gets 170 cents on the dollar in my chart, 120 on JJ. Warren Sharp @SharpFootball Follow More Bills (#27, 91 and 1st rd in 2018) got the better deal in #NFLDraft trade w Chiefs (#10) by getting 36.1 draft points & losing 19.9. Edited April 28, 2017 by Logic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts