TheElectricCompany Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 There is not a team in the NFL that he wouldn't start for. Not one. And maybe three teams in the league where he wouldn't be the clear #1 once he was signed (Atlanta, Pittsburgh... maybe Cinci). Everyone in the league thinks highly of Sammy, that says a lot about his talent. There are 64 starting wide receivers. Clearly, Sammy is good enough to be up there But sure, get into the hypothetical "What if" argument that ignores where Sammy has continued to underwhelm: On the field as a Buffalo Bill. But that's what the topic is about. No one is arguing total production. Seems like some sort of consolation price. Yeah, Sammy isn't half the receiver of OBJ or Brown, but he's certainly more talented! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DisplacedBillsFan Posted March 22, 2017 Author Share Posted March 22, 2017 Huh? Production is the ultimate decider of a players worth, not some undefinable "talent". I think the list of top tier receivers (OBJ, Brown, AJ Green, Julio, Demaryius Thomas) is pretty clear based on years of elite numbers. I mentioned this earlier in regards to RBs, but really looking at this as you're starting a team from scratch and can pick any player at any position. Would you honestly choose Demaryius Thomas and put him on your team before Watkins? I wouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not at the table Karlos Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 There are 64 starting wide receivers. Clearly, Sammy is good enough to be up there But sure, get into the hypothetical "What if" argument that ignores where Sammy has continued to underwhelm: On the field as a Buffalo Bill. Seems like some sort of consolation price. Yeah, Sammy isn't half the receiver of OBJ or Brown, but he's certainly more talented! give Sammy Eli or Ben and everything changes. If you put Beckham or brown on the bills I don't think they come close to Sammy's numbers here when healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 There are 64 starting wide receivers. Clearly, Sammy is good enough to be up there But sure, get into the hypothetical "What if" argument that ignores where Sammy has continued to underwhelm: On the field as a Buffalo Bill. That's not the point. The point is that he's viewed by the rest of the league and coaches as being top 5 at his position -- and it's not even close. Tell an NFL scout, DB, or GM that you think Sammy isn't a top 15 guy and watch their reaction. You'd be laughed out of the room. Sammy would be the clear cut #1 on every team in the NFL but for 3... and one of those is debatable. The reason for Sammy "under performing" (which I think is a terrible label to apply to him) is due to the Bills ****-show at QB and his own health issues. One of those things (really both) are out of his control -- and has been pointed out, his injury and production are right on track with JJ's first few seasons. I bet Atlanta fans are glad the team didn't bail on Julio for "underwhelming". All things being equal, which they would be if he were taken off the Bills roster and put onto another team, Sammy is a clear top 5 talent at his position in the NFL as judged by people who play and coach the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 I mentioned this earlier in regards to RBs, but really looking at this as you're starting a team from scratch and can pick any player at any position. Would you honestly choose Demaryius Thomas and put him on your team before Watkins? I wouldn't. Based on his years of elite production across multiple schemes and QBs, absolutely ! That's not the point. The point is that he's viewed by the rest of the league and coaches as being top 5 at his position -- and it's not even close. Tell an NFL scout, DB, or GM that you think Sammy isn't a top 15 guy and watch their reaction. You'd be laughed out of the room. Sammy would be the clear cut #1 on every team in the NFL but for 3... and one of those is debatable. The reason for Sammy "under performing" (which I think is a terrible label to apply to him) is due to the Bills ****-show at QB and his own health issues. One of those things (really both) are out of his control -- and has been pointed out, his injury and production are right on track with JJ's first few seasons. I bet Atlanta fans are glad the team didn't bail on Julio for "underwhelming". All things being equal, which they would be if he were taken off the Bills roster and put onto another team, Sammy is a clear top 5 talent at his position in the NFL as judged by people who play and coach the game. care to share a few links with GMs and coaches sharing their opinion on the matter ? I'm genuinely interested . Apparently this is a very agreed upon subject so I'm sure it be easy . I'd love for Sammy to perform like a top 5 guy , but until he does , he has no business being considered elite, especially over guys that have already done it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 To be blunt, you think that Julio was probably getting better passes than Watkins? Indeed. Huh? Production is the ultimate decider of a players worth, not some undefinable "talent". I think the list of top tier receivers (OBJ, Brown, AJ Green, Julio, Demaryius Thomas) is pretty clear based on years of elite numbers. Plus, you're casually looking over guys like TY Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, Brandin Cooks and Amari Cooper, who are just below that top shelf but still damn good. Guys that have smoked Sammy where it matters most - on the field. Sammy > OBJ and Brown in anything? Frankly, he can't hold either of those guys jock straps. Actually, on a per-target basis, Sammy paces right along with OBJ and Julio. I know most fans don't bother digging into the numbers for context; it's much easier that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 There are 64 starting wide receivers. Clearly, Sammy is good enough to be up there But sure, get into the hypothetical "What if" argument that ignores where Sammy has continued to underwhelm: On the field as a Buffalo Bill. Seems like some sort of consolation price. Yeah, Sammy isn't half the receiver of OBJ or Brown, but he's certainly more talented! You can certainly start your own topic on the top 5 most productive players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Context: http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-adam-harstad-on-sammy-watkins/ http://nysportsbiz.com/2016/01/04/sammy-watkins-arguably-nfls-top-wr-2nd-half-season/ When he gets the targets, he's as good as anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Context: http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-adam-harstad-on-sammy-watkins/ http://nysportsbiz.com/2016/01/04/sammy-watkins-arguably-nfls-top-wr-2nd-half-season/ When he gets the targets, he's as good as anyone. Isolated advanced stats are fun. Certainly falls into the "lies, damn lies and statistics " joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Since Tyrod was invited to the probowl, he's worth mentioning.... Why the need to hijack the thread.....why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Isolated advanced stats are fun. Certainly falls into the "lies, damn lies and statistics " joke. My favorite quote, because that's what people say when they don't want to acknowledge context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 (edited) My favorite quote, because that's what people say when they don't want to acknowledge context. Pot, meet kettle. Taking a small sample size and projecting it across an entire season and giving it more weight than established production falls firmly into the "hypothesis contrary to fact" fallacy. I do hope this is all moot by next December . Sammy can perhaps be in that conversation with a 1400 yard 10 TD year Edited March 22, 2017 by TheElectricCompany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rodneykm Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 The question was about talent, not performance. That makes a big difference in hypothetical rankings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 I am certainly getting beyond the scope of the thread . Talent is defined differently in every professionals eye with different weights to each attribute . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Pot, meet kettle. Taking a small sample size and projecting it across an entire season and giving it more weight than established production falls firmly into the "hypothesis contrary to fact" fallacy. I do hope this is all moot by next December . Sammy can perhaps be in that conversation with a 1400 yard 10 TD year My point is quite simple: up until 2016, Watkins had the highest yards per target in the NFL for the 2 years that he was in the league. He has nearly identical production through 3 years as Julio Jones. There isn't a thing he can't do on the football field. His only issue has been availability, and even at that, he's on part with Jones through 3 seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris66 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 All this thread tells me is whaley is a better scout than gm. He is no doubt good at finding talent. though not so good at building a team. Hence the .500 record over the last 3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 (edited) My point is quite simple: up until 2016, Watkins had the highest yards per target in the NFL for the 2 years that he was in the league. He has nearly identical production through 3 years as Julio Jones. There isn't a thing he can't do on the football field. As is mine. That's a very isolated stat that doesn't directly correlate to key numbers us Joes associate with elite WR play, such as catches, yards and touchdowns. It should have some reflection in YPC, but that's just one piece of the puzzle One can't gloss over injuries either. While I do hope Sammy can rebound, stranger things have happened than seeing a young players career become underwhelming or cut short due to lingering pain. When isolated stats dont line up with the most important numbers , I think you have to be a little suspicious . Edited March 22, 2017 by TheElectricCompany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 As is mine. That's a very isolated stat that doesn't directly correlate to key numbers us Joes associate with elite WR play, such as catches, yards and touchdowns, as proven by how we actually produced that year. One can't gloss over injuries either. While I do hope Sammy can rebound, stranger things have happened than seeing a young players career be underwhelming or cut short due to lingering pain. When isolated stats dont line up with the most important numbers , I think you have to be a little suspicious . The numbers absolutely line up for Jones and Watkins in their first 3 NFL seasons: One of these sets of numbers is Julio Jones' production in his first 3 NFL seasons, the other is Sammy Watkins... 34 games played, 285 targets, 174 receptions, 2,737 yards, 20 TDs, 42 receptions of 20+ yards, 15 receptions of 40+ yards, 115 1st downs 37 games played, 275 targets, 153 receptions, 2,459 yards, 17 TDs, 36 receptions of 20+ yards, 13 receptions of 40+ yards, 108 1st downs That was the original point that I made. I'm not saying that availability isn't a concern--I'm saying that it's the only concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SF Bills Fan Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 I'd say McCoy only and he is may be the #1 guy at his position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 The numbers absolutely line up for Jones and Watkins in their first 3 NFL seasons: One of these sets of numbers is Julio Jones' production in his first 3 NFL seasons, the other is Sammy Watkins... 34 games played, 285 targets, 174 receptions, 2,737 yards, 20 TDs, 42 receptions of 20+ yards, 15 receptions of 40+ yards, 115 1st downs 37 games played, 275 targets, 153 receptions, 2,459 yards, 17 TDs, 36 receptions of 20+ yards, 13 receptions of 40+ yards, 108 1st downs That was the original point that I made. I'm not saying that availability isn't a concern--I'm saying that it's the only concern I don't think anyone was saying Julio was top 5 during that injury riddled year. I didn't . Two years of elite production after propelled him to the top. Be nice if he did that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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