To QB or to not QB

[Bill from NYC]

Manuel was his guy. DW said so. Google it. You can watch it for yourself,

 

He's drafted fine?

 

2016 - Jury is still out. All we know is Lawson was hurt at the time of the draft.

2015 - No First Round Pick. Darby regressed this year. John Miller - Solid Starter. Nick O'Leary - serviceable.

2014 - Overpaid for Watkins, Kouandjio - solid starter. Preston Brown - Solid Starter

 

4 Solid Starters in three years. That's not fine. That's below average.

And this doesn't take into account the draft choices he peddled away to achieve this poor record.

 

Whaley is not fit to be a general manager of an NFL football team. This is not a huge insult either.....how many people ARE capable of doing that job. The bad news is that we are stuck with him for at least 1 more year. The good news is that he is a sharp dresser and must have some great fashion tips.

[BarleyNY]

is a twenty something pay salary ok for a decent option?

 

because even decent qbs are hard to find

It's too much, even for one season. And Taylor would be in for two at that rate. As painful as it might be, the Bills need to walk away. I understand why they might do it - and why some fans want them to - but everyone will regret it if it happens. It'd just be wishful thinking and unwarranted hope leading to a bad decision.

[John from Riverside]

It's too much, even for one season. And Taylor would be in for two at that rate. As painful as it might be, the Bills need to walk away. I understand why they might do it - and why some fans want them to - but everyone will regret it if it happens. It'd just be wishful thinking and unwarranted hope leading to a bad decision.

want to delve into it a bit further to explain your position?

 

why is it too much to pay a middleing starter qb middling starter qb money with the options so limited?

[Maury Ballstein]

want to delve into it a bit further to explain your position?

 

why is it too much to pay a middleing starter qb middling starter qb money with the options so limited?

Why would you pay 30 million for another 7 wins at best ? Makes no sense.

[John from Riverside]

Why would you pay 30 million for another 7 wins at best ? Makes no sense.

Ryan

 

since you really cannot provide anything useful to the conversation why are you even commenting?

 

wins and losses is a team thing

[Maury Ballstein]

Ryan

 

since you really cannot provide anything useful to the conversation why are you even commenting?

 

wins and losses is a team thing

 

Eyes are a real thing. Watch him play sometime.

 

Let's stick with other teams backup qb's and hope for 8-8 football again. Sounds like a blast. Run that streak to 20 years with Taylor easily.

 

Every bill is the best. I forgot who I'm talking to.

 

Bye John. Enjoy the delusions. I'm done with Taylor talk until he embarrasses himself again week 1.

[John from Riverside]

Eyes are a real thing. Watch him play sometime.

 

Let's stick with other teams backup qb's and hope for 8-8 football again. Sounds like a blast. Run that streak to 20 years with Taylor easily.

 

Every bill is the best. I forgot who I'm talking to.

 

Bye John. Enjoy the delusions. I'm done with Taylor talk until he embarrasses himself again week 1.

thank god

[3rdand12]

Why would you pay 30 million for another 7 wins at best ? Makes no sense.

its 40 over two years. whered ya get 3o

[BarleyNY]

want to delve into it a bit further to explain your position?

 

why is it too much to pay a middleing starter qb middling starter qb money with the options so limited?

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/

 

$40.5M over two seasons is a very significant commitment. It puts him up there with the likes of Rivers, Ryan, Brady, etc. (see link above). He's not remotely close to that level of QB. The average salary gets a little better if he's kept longer, but in all honesty does anyone here want Tyrod for 5 more seasons? I sure don't. I can see him as a bridge QB for a reasonable price, but he not nearly a good enough passer to be a guy I'd make a long term commitment to.

 

People talk of keeping him as a bridge, but how do you give a QB that kind of cash and then try to draft his replacement? Doing so would certainly undermine him and create controversy. It wouldn't reflect well on the Bills as an organization either. Obviously retaining him wouldn't allow for even another bridge level QB to be brought in and it would take cap space away from retaining other talent - and the Bills have a lot of FAs this offseason.

 

The tough part of this is that there's no guarantee that the Bills will find a better replacement (unless they find one immediately in FA before the roster bonus is due). They might not, or it might take years. They've been looking a long time already. But sticking with Taylor is just another way of kicking the same can down the same road. He's just not a good enough passer to warrant such a significant commitment.

[Maury Ballstein]

its 40 over two years. whered ya get 3o

I made a deal with John. I will not be discussing the qb or the poor passing offenses of the Bills/Rams/49ers/Browns group until a qb change is made.

 

Falcons and Pats ranked 2nd and 4th in passing. Bills 30th...... 189 ypg.

 

Not gonna work.

Edited February 2, 2017 by Ryan L Billz

[jeffismagic]

The Bills are not keeping Tyrod as a bridge QB. I don't know why people don't listen to what the Bills themselves have said. They said they will only pick up the option if they feel he is the long term answer.

 

So there will be no "middling" this. Either he is the guy or he is not. If we keep him we're not drafting another QB high. So if you want Tyrod stop saying we draft someone also. Unless you count late round picks like Cardale.

[John from Riverside]

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/

 

$40.5M over two seasons is a very significant commitment. It puts him up there with the likes of Rivers, Ryan, Brady, etc. (see link above). He's not remotely close to that level of QB. The average salary gets a little better if he's kept longer, but in all honesty does anyone here want Tyrod for 5 more seasons? I sure don't. I can see him as a bridge QB for a reasonable price, but he not nearly a good enough passer to be a guy I'd make a long term commitment to.

 

People talk of keeping him as a bridge, but how do you give a QB that kind of cash and then try to draft his replacement? Doing so would certainly undermine him and create controversy. It wouldn't reflect well on the Bills as an organization either. Obviously retaining him wouldn't allow for even another bridge level QB to be brought in and it would take cap space away from retaining other talent - and the Bills have a lot of FAs this offseason.

 

The tough part of this is that there's no guarantee that the Bills will find a better replacement (unless they find one immediately in FA before the roster bonus is due). They might not, or it might take years. They've been looking a long time already. But sticking with Taylor is just another way of kicking the same can down the same road. He's just not a good enough passer to warrant such a significant commitment.

the problem is none of those qbs you mention are available as a replacement

 

its not our money....the only thing that actually matters is what counts on cap

The Bills are not keeping Tyrod as a bridge QB. I don't know why people don't listen to what the Bills themselves have said. They said they will only pick up the option if they feel he is the long term answer.

 

So there will be no "middling" this. Either he is the guy or he is not. If we keep him we're not drafting another QB high. So if you want Tyrod stop saying we draft someone also. Unless you count late round picks like Cardale.

gotta take all that with a grain of salt till we see what they do.....the new draft slotting salaries make taking and stashing a qb much more economical

[biggerdaddynj]

The stats are posted in the draft thread but roughly 1 out of 16 QBs, picked in rounds 1&2 (excluding the top 3 picks) over the last 11 drafts would be a franchise guy. That would be Carr and Flacco. There are some others that are serviceable but I'm not sure that there's another guy ahead of Tyrod even. That's 6.25% of those guys.

 

We love to use Derek Carr and Dak Prescott but we always seem to exclude the over 90% of other guys. For every Carr, there are 15 Tebows. For every Dak there are 20+ Levi Browns.

Should just paste the link--you clearly debunked the false mythology behind drafting a QB early--might help others to see the light ... whether they like it or not (it's like a gambler who brags about hitting on a big bet--doesn't tell you about the other nine big losses). Thanks again for that post--was good stuff--need Jack Nicholson with his "you can't handle the truth" rant. Edited February 2, 2017 by biggerdaddynj

[Thurman#1]

The stats are posted in the draft thread but roughly 1 out of 16 QBs, picked in rounds 1&2 (excluding the top 3 picks) over the last 11 drafts would be a franchise guy. That would be Carr and Flacco. There are some others that are serviceable but I'm not sure that there's another guy ahead of Tyrod even. That's 6.25% of those guys.

 

We love to use Derek Carr and Dak Prescott but we always seem to exclude the over 90% of other guys. For every Carr, there are 15 Tebows. For every Dak there are 20+ Levi Browns.

 

 

Dalton's not a franchise guy? Come on. And he's way ahead of Tyrod. Their OL sucked this year and he still played pretty well. Cutler's not a franchise guy? I don't want him on my team but I'd certainly argue he's a franchise QB.

 

You're also assuming Paxton Lynch, Hackenberg, Bridgewater, Garoppolo, and Tannehill won't come into their own when it actually seems that some are right on track. OK, I'll give you Hackenberg, as that seemed like a bad pick from minute one.

 

Also, I noticed you stopped at eleven years. Couldn't be because the year before that, Aaron Rodgers was drafted 24th, could it? Or that the year before that both Rivers and Roethlisberger were drafted in the first but after #3?

 

Can't be bothered to look further, but that's already some big holes in this analysis.

 

But the major hole is assuming that all the guys who didn't become franchise guys never had a chance, a very unfair assumption. How good the development is from team to team differs wildly. Maybe some of the guys who didn't make it could have if given better coaching and surroundings. Very possible.

 

Which brings up the question of whether Buffalo is a place that does a good job of development, and the answer would seem to be no. Losman was developed horribly. Dunno if he'd have amounted to anything even given perfect conditions, but he was ruined. I hope they've turned around in terms of doing a better job.

 

 

What are you using as a "total defense" ranking?

 

By DVOA (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods) we were ranked 26th - and only ahead of 1 playoff team in Atlanta (who was ranked 1st on offense). Buffalo was ranked 10th on offense (ahead of several playoff teams - KC, MIA, DET, SEA, NYG, and HOU).

 

 

 

I think he's using what the NFL uses to rank defenses. And offenses.

Edited February 2, 2017 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

is a twenty something pay salary ok for a decent option?

 

because even decent qbs are hard to find

 

 

First, IMHO, no. Only 12 QBs have an average of $20 million or above.

 

Luck

Carson Palmer

Flacco

Flacco

Rodgers

Russ Wilson

Roethlisberger

Eli Manning

Rivers

Cam Newton

Matt Ryan

Tom Brady

 

So, IMHO, no. Yeah, decent QBs are hard to find. But I can't imagine a team paying that much for a bridge guy unless they thought that he was the last piece and that they would be competitive for a Super Bowl immediately. Teams in that situation are willing to do things that otherwise would be stupid. We aren't in that situation.

 

 

Second, if they keep him for one year, it wouldn't be $20 mill, it would be $30.5 mill. Probably Whaley wouldn't want to look that bad, so they'd likely keep him for two years if Whaley was still GM. Two years would indeed be just over $20 mill per year..There's never been a bridge QB with an average anywhere near that. $40 mill off the cap of a team that is very close to the cap ... for two years of Tyrod Taylor.

[Thurman#1]

2 Pro Bowls in a row. They have other problems

 

 

 

They do indeed have other problems. Lower priority problems, but yeah, they've got a bunch of problems.

 

But those two Pro Bowls mean squat. Since moving from Hawaii and also moving the game up so the Super Bowl player can't go, making the Pro Bowl as an alternate or replacement just doesn't mean all that much. 36 guys turned down the Pro Bowl this year, and that's leaving aside the guys who were injured.

[John from Riverside]

 

 

First, IMHO, no. Only 12 QBs have an average of $20 million or above.

 

Luck

Carson Palmer

Flacco

Flacco

Rodgers

Russ Wilson

Roethlisberger

Eli Manning

Rivers

Cam Newton

Matt Ryan

Tom Brady

 

So, IMHO, no. Yeah, decent QBs are hard to find. But I can't imagine a team paying that much for a bridge guy unless they thought that he was the last piece and that they would be competitive for a Super Bowl immediately. Teams in that situation are willing to do things that otherwise would be stupid. We aren't in that situation.

 

 

Second, if they keep him for one year, it wouldn't be $20 mill, it would be $30.5 mill. Probably Whaley wouldn't want to look that bad, so they'd likely keep him for two years if Whaley was still GM. Two years would indeed be just over $20 mill per year..There's never been a bridge QB with an average anywhere near that. $40 mill off the cap of a team that is very close to the cap ... for two years of Tyrod Taylor.

once again,,,since its not coming out of your pockey what is the actual cap hit

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

Dalton's not a franchise guy? Come on. And he's way ahead of Tyrod. Their OL sucked this year and he still played pretty well. Cutler's not a franchise guy? I don't want him on my team but I'd certainly argue he's a franchise QB.

 

You're also assuming Paxton Lynch, Hackenberg, Bridgewater, Garoppolo, and Tannehill won't come into their own when it actually seems that some are right on track. OK, I'll give you Hackenberg, as that seemed like a bad pick from minute one.

 

Also, I noticed you stopped at eleven years. Couldn't be because the year before that, Aaron Rodgers was drafted 24th, could it? Or that the year before that both Rivers and Roethlisberger were drafted in the first but after #3?

 

Can't be bothered to look further, but that's already some big holes in this analysis.

 

But the major hole is assuming that all the guys who didn't become franchise guys never had a chance, a very unfair assumption. How good the development is from team to team differs wildly. Maybe some of the guys who didn't make it could have if given better coaching and surroundings. Very possible.

 

Which brings up the question of whether Buffalo is a place that does a good job of development, and the answer would seem to be no. Losman was developed horribly. Dunno if he'd have amounted to anything even given perfect conditions, but he was ruined. I hope they've turned around in terms of doing a better job.

I used Gunner's list. That way I couldn't be accused of trying to make it fit a particular narrative. I didn't rank anybody. I used his list and put the stats to the guys. FWIW, I actually argued in that thread that Flacco, at this point, is more of a game manager. He's in the franchise tier for the purposes of these numbers because that's where Gunner had him. My thought process was, "let's see what these different tiers of QBs look like?"

 

Dalton would be in the game manager territory. FWIW, over the last 2 years Dalton and Tyrod each played 29 games. Dalton had 50 TDs and 15 INTs, Tyrod has 47 TDs and 12 INTs. They are in the same league (decent starter). In terms of Cutler, his numbers aren't even close. If you extrapolate his last 2 years to 29 games you are looking at 36.25 TDs and 23.2 INTs (he is a tier below those guys).

 

There is another thread where I went back to Brady (the earliest drafted QB left). There have been 213 drafted since him and the numbers hold almost exactly true. Feel free to find the thread going back further. It's in one of these 50 QB ones. To be really honest I was trying to use a 10 year sample size and forgot that it was 2017 . I ended up doing 11 years because by the time I realized I already had the numbers so I used it.

 

I don't think that the development question is an unfair one. Unfortunately we can't assume what would or what wouldn't have happened in a given situation. There are certainly guys that got good and bad situations but that's true in any profession. That is the subjective end of it. I just added the factual part.

 

We all have these intuitive thoughts but what do the stats say? As an example one poster said that "Tyrod isn't in Tannehill's league." Over the last 2 years Tannehill is 14-15 with 259 yards a game, 45 TDs and 24 INTS, Tyrod is 15-14, 230 yards a game, 47 TDs and 12 INTs. That post may have even been the impetus for the research. Regardless of your preference on those players or your belief that they are or aren't franchise guys, it's very difficult to argue that they aren't AT LEAST comparable. Don't shoot the messenger.

Edited February 2, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[BarleyNY]

the problem is none of those qbs you mention are available as a replacement

 

its not our money....the only thing that actually matters is what counts on cap

gotta take all that with a grain of salt till we see what they do.....the new draft slotting salaries make taking and stashing a qb much more economical

The comparison is to show how grossly overpaid he'd be under the extension. And everything paid to him counts against the cap even the team can defer some of it.