If Bills dump Taylor, where does he end up?

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Gashed in the run game, and we got very few turnovers.

The defense was okay until that stretch late in the year when they conceded 17 TDs on 18 RZ possessions. That is not common or average.

[Marty McFly]

Right. Because stats on two different teams under two completely different situations show who is better.

Nice.

 

Taylor had McCoy, Siemian had nothing at RB. Yet Siemian had superior stats than Taylor in the stats I listed.

 

Also, Taylor had 1 4qc and 1 gwd, while Siemian had 3 4qc and 2 gwd.

 

The kicker is the Oakland game which Taylor played awful. Siemian went off on the Raiders in the last game of the season.

 

I'm sure Elway doesn't want any part of signing Taylor at this point.

Simian had Demaryius Thomas, Emmanual Sanders Tyrod had Walt Powell and Goodwin.

Tyrod had a great RB.....Simian had a top 5 defense....

That argument is washed. Get the mop.

[Alphadawg7]

16th in points

19th in yards

 

Looks pretty average.

 

If you think our D was average then you werent paying attention on Sundays. Here is a BIG reality check to those stats you just used to suggest we are average.

 

You say 16th in points...you do realize that week 4 we allowed ZERO to a NE team missing Brady. If anyone thinks we shut out Brady week 4, then you are utterly delusional especially considering he hung 41 points on us in Week 8. If Brady plays week 4 and even hangs 30 on the Bills, we drop to 27th in the NFL in points allowed. If he puts up another 41 points on us, we would have dropped to 28th in points allowed.

 

There is nothing average about this defense. Yes the team officially ended the season at 16th...but as you can see, there is one massive anomaly on our season that there is about a zero percent chance of duplicating had Brady not been suspended.

 

Further more...Going into week 17 only 2 teams had more touchdowns than the Buffalo Bills...Falcons and the Saints. Because EJ stunk the place up along with Cardale, we didn't score any TDs week 17 and finished tied for 6th. Had Taylor played, he more than likely leads us to at least 2 offensive TD's or more and we would have ended the season in 3rd across the entire NFL.

 

We did all that scoring WITHOUT our best WR for most the season (as in the 7 games he played, most of them he was barely there and hurt). We did that without key OL for parts of the season. We did that with a firing and change of OC 2 weeks into the season. We did that with what everyone here says was terrible coaching in general. We did that with many of our other playmakers hurt or out for significant parts of the season, including McCoy, Woods, and Clay.

 

So if we are putting points on the board, why don't we win more games? Because we allow the opponent to score too many points...its that simple. There is ONLY one object in the NFL...score MORE points than your opponent. Well we scored enough points on the season, but we were at the bottom of the league in scoring defense (Again, Pats game skewed the final ranking). Its not easy making the playoffs when your D gives up 27 or more points EIGHT times on the season. Not to mention, that is almost certainly 9 times if Brady played week 4.

 

PS: BILLS SCORED EQUAL OR MORE POINTS THAN ALL BUT 2 AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS (Pats and Oakland)...side note, Bills were only 17 points behind Oakland, and if Tyrod plays week 17 we likely finish only behind the Pats in scoring of all AFC playoff teams considering we averaged 25 points per game in the 15 games Tyrod played).

 

PPS: BILLS GAVE UP MORE POINTS THAN ALL BUT 2 AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS (Oakland and Miami)...side note, Had Brady played week 4, we would have given up more points than all of the 6 AFC playoff teams.

 

Yet some of you still want to keep telling us its all Tyrod's fault and that our D is average...

Edited January 17, 2017 by Alphadawg7

[Marty McFly]

What stats were superior? Tyrod had a higher completion percentage, more TDs, more total yards. less turnovers, higher rating, about the same yards per attempt, higher QBR (by a ton) and his offense scored a LOT more with inferior weapons. What is it that makes you think a Siemian is superior to TT?

 

Confirmation bias.

[3rdand12]

Tyrod walks into 10 NFL camps and if there were a QB competition for the starter like the Bills had in '15 he wins it.

 

Vikings

Texans

Browns

Denver

Jets

Rams

Dolphins

Eagles

Niners

Jags

 

Lots of teams getting old at QB, too - SD (now LA and Giants come to mind).

 

He'll be fine.

Of this? I have no question.

 

Confirmation bias.

LOl'd

[threevo]

16th in points

19th in yards

 

Looks pretty average.

28th / 32 teams in DVOA. Its way worse than it looks with antiquated stats

[26CornerBlitz]

@Rotoworld_FB

Browns likely to pursue Tyrod Taylor if cut http://tinyurl.com/heaakc4

[Maury Ballstein]

@Rotoworld_FB

 

Browns likely to pursue Tyrod Taylor if cut http://tinyurl.com/heaakc4

 

 

Yesssss! Go browns go !

[Kirby Jackson]

@Rotoworld_FB

 

Browns likely to pursue Tyrod Taylor if cut http://tinyurl.com/heaakc4

Makes some sense, boatloads of draft picks and lots of cap space. If they play their cards right they can pretty easily have an offseason like Miles Garrett, Dalvin Cook, Gareon Conley, Roderick Johnson, Tyrod Taylor and keep Jamie Collins. They are heading in the right direction. Edited January 18, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[3rdand12]

 

@Rotoworld_FB

Browns likely to pursue Tyrod Taylor if cut http://tinyurl.com/heaakc4

 

Here goes the spin cycle.

[Big Gun]

28th / 32 teams in DVOA. Its way worse than it looks with antiquated stats

Useless metric like QBR when a third party subjectively grades.

 

Like others have said about the All 22, don't know what plays were called or who ran the wrong route etc. therefor it's an inaccurate metric, same for DVOA.

 

Does DVOA take into account what plays were called on both O and what defense was called? Does it take into account who is playing injured? Who missed the hole, ran the wrong route, or missed a block, or covered the wrong guy? No! Then it's a useless stat!

 

That said, yeah the defense wasn't very good this year but stats alone says they were average. It is what it is.

[aristocrat]

 

@Rotoworld_FB

Browns likely to pursue Tyrod Taylor if cut http://tinyurl.com/heaakc4

 

 

give us the 2nd rounder

[Kirby Jackson]

Useless metric like QBR when a third party subjectively grades.

 

Like others have said about the All 22, don't know what plays were called or who ran the wrong route etc. therefor it's an inaccurate metric, same for DVOA.

 

Does DVOA take into account what plays were called on both O and what defense was called? Does it take into account who is playing injured? Who missed the hole, ran the wrong route, or missed a block, or covered the wrong guy? No! Then it's a useless stat!

 

That said, yeah the defense wasn't very good this year but stats alone says they were average. It is what it is.

Stats never tell the whole story in anything. DVOA is probably the most accurate though. There's a reason that we use advanced statistics and analytics instead of antiquated stats. They tell much more of the story than passing yards, rushing yards, yards allowed, etc... Those surface level statistics don't account for game situations.

[3rdand12]

Stats never tell the whole story in anything. DVOA is probably the most accurate though. There's a reason that we use advanced statistics and analytics instead of antiquated stats. They tell much more of the story than passing yards, rushing yards, yards allowed, etc... Those surface level statistics don't account for game situations.

humans trying to explain god. that is what Math is.

some use it for their own gain

[moshermw]

To all those Bills fans who think they know what a QB will develop into after watching play him for two years.

 

I watched a kid get drafted and sit on the bench in his first season with a bad HC, bad team. The next season he got a new HC and coaching staff and he was able to start. He went 8-8 that first year while completing 60.8% of his passes for 526 attempts for 320 completions 3284 yards with 17 TDs, 16 INTs. Not bad for a rookie starter, err most of you would say a second-year player. That team had a 1000+ yard rusher and some decent receivers with 538 passing attempts vs 466 rushing attempts.

 

In his second year of starting the guy was benched after he went 2-9 with 356 attempts for 205 completions for 2108 yards while throwing 11 TDs, 15 INTs. with a 57.6 completion percentage. He stunk it up and deserved to be benched!

 

Now up until this point, the team had thrown more than they passed the ball the previous two years and this year the teams OC took a different turn and called for 450 passes vs 525 rushing attempts. This same starting QB who was benched the previous season suddenly started to get better in a run first team. That year this same QB who stinking it up was doing great.

 

This season that in his third year of being a starting QB he went 11-4 with 400 attempts for 262 completions for 3159 yards with 27 TDs, 7 INTs. The team made the playoffs. His OC was Cam Cameron a man who tutored him and also went on to develop Joe Flacco into another SB winning QB. Anyone guess by now who this QB is?

 

 

 

The point being is that it would really be foolish to dump Tyrod Taylor at this point. Unless the team changes their offensive philosophy to a pass first and wants a different bridge QB who will throw more.

 

What the team should do is hire Cam Cameron away from LSU and allow him to develop Tyrod Taylor. The team will find out soon enough if he develops further or fails to do so. This team also needs to upgrade the WR, RT positions asap.

Just for info, Cam Cameron was Tyrod's OC in Baltimore for at least a year if not 2.

 

They've met.

[Marty McFly]

No argument from me. Osweiler is terrible. But he was a 2nd round pick and only played a handful of games so the jury was still somewhat out on him. Kaepernick a 2nd round pick who made it to Super Bowl. Taylor is a maxed out 6th year QB who doesn't fit the prototype. Franchises who aspire for more than a .500 record don't pay QB's like Taylor $15-20m per year.

"maxed out" hardly. Only started 2 seasons with 2 different OCs and the 2nd season was spent throwing to his 4th 5th and 6th WR options who he never got time to develop rhythm and chemistry with in TC

[Thurman#1]

I think the Broncos, who would be nuts not to pick him up. He would be perfect for them. They wanted him before, two different times I believe. And while yes, I know Kubiak isn't there anymore, he would have had to talk Elway into it, and the Broncos offered him more money plus tried to trade for him this year.

 

 

 

The Broncos brought in two young guys with real possibilities since they showed interest in Tyrod. When they showed interest in Tyrod, Manning had just retired and they'd just lost Osweiler. They had nothing. Zac Dysert had been their third-stringer in

2014 and they let him go in the offseason too.

 

While I can imagine them still wanting him as a backup, I can't imagine them paying what it would take to bring him in, unless Tyrod was willing to give a huge hometown discount to a team that isn't in his hometown.

 

Houston would be good but they can't afford a big QB contract. Cleveland's rebuilding, so they're not going to be looking for a bridge guy, they wouldn't mind losing more with a rookie or with more Griffin.

 

San Francisco? The Jets? LA if they're not as confident about Goff as they pretend to be?

 

Too many unknowns, IMHO. Depends if Tyrod would insist on a starter contract or would accept another one that would give teams a year or two to look him over before making a huge financial commitment.

 

Honestly, my best guess is that he re-structures and stays here.

[Thurman#1]

Osweiler has more upside? Um, no he is terrible.

 

I'm not saying that TT is perfect by any means. $15M is on the low end of what pretty good QB play gets paid. It's less than a bunch of guys that he's better than at the moment. I know that the number seems big but he'd be the 3rd lowest paid vet starter I think (ahead of RG and Fitz). The only guys making less, other than that, are on rookie deals. He's not playing for $10M and if he does his agent should be fired.

 

 

Yeah, $15 mill is on the low end, andyou're right that it's for pretty good reason.

 

But $15 mill isn't the impact of signing him and keeping him for a year. $30.5 mill is (2017: $15.9 mill and 2018: $14+mill dead money). The instant money becomes guaranteed, it's also guaranteed to hit the cap. If you keep him for two years, it will cost a minimum of $40.5 mill (2017: $15.9 mill, 2018: $16.7 mill, 2019: $8 or $9 mill dead cap).

 

That's not bridge QB money. It's insane money if he's kept for only one year and top twelve, franchise QB money if kept for two years. It's only after he's kept for four or five years that his average per year would get down towards $15 mill.

 

Now, if he re-structures, my guess is that the Bills would want to keep him for another year or two. If he turned this year's $15.5 guaranteed roster bonus into five yearly $3.1 mill roster bonuses, each guaranteeing on the third day of the league year, for example. I would guess they'd want to keep him in that case. That would be a bridge QB contract, a contract that would be reasonable for around the 20th best QB in the league.

One thing to remember about Taylor.

 

This is likely the ideal spot for him. The Bills have put together an offense that is a very good run first offense. Taylor is a big part of that.

 

Putting Taylor somewhere else that is not a historically good run first team may not have the desired results. Other teams will want Taylor to win some games with his arm because they don't have the run game the Bills do. Will Taylor help their run game? Sure. But the chances of it being as good as the Bills had this year are very slim.

 

What I'm concerned with, is that this is the ideal situation for Taylor. The run game won't get much better than here. Will Taylor improve enough in year 3 with the Bills? Because he didn't in year 2. How much longer can the Bills sustain this level of run game to help support Taylor. If the Bills run game drops at all, we would be in serious trouble with Taylor trying to win games with his arm.

 

 

 

Yup. Teams don't generally like hearing other teams saying their plan is to make your quarterback play quarterback

Edited January 18, 2017 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

To all those Bills fans who think they know what a QB will develop into after watching play him for two years.

 

 

To all those Bills fans desperate to forget that they think they DON'T know what a QB will develop into after six years in the league ...

 

Tyrod's been in the NFL for six years. And he regressed between the fifth and sixth years.

 

The list of people who were not franchise QBs by year six but then became franchise QBs is an extremely short list, the kind of list where you can cut off a finger or two or three and still count them on one hand. There's Gannon and .... um ....

 

 

 

 

To all those Bills fans who think they know what a QB will develop into after watching play him for two years.

 

I watched a kid get drafted and sit on the bench in his first season with a bad HC, bad team. The next season he got a new HC and coaching staff and he was able to start. He went 8-8 that first year while completing 60.8% of his passes for 526 attempts for 320 completions 3284 yards with 17 TDs, 16 INTs. Not bad for a rookie starter, err most of you would say a second-year player. That team had a 1000+ yard rusher and some decent receivers with 538 passing attempts vs 466 rushing attempts.

 

In his second year of starting the guy was benched after he went 2-9 with 356 attempts for 205 completions for 2108 yards while throwing 11 TDs, 15 INTs. with a 57.6 completion percentage. He stunk it up and deserved to be benched!

 

Now up until this point, the team had thrown more than they passed the ball the previous two years and this year the teams OC took a different turn and called for 450 passes vs 525 rushing attempts. This same starting QB who was benched the previous season suddenly started to get better in a run first team. That year this same QB who stinking it up was doing great.

 

This season that in his third year of being a starting QB he went 11-4 with 400 attempts for 262 completions for 3159 yards with 27 TDs, 7 INTs. The team made the playoffs. His OC was Cam Cameron a man who tutored him and also went on to develop Joe Flacco into another SB winning QB. Anyone guess by now who this QB is?

 

 

 

The point being is that it would really be foolish to dump Tyrod Taylor at this point. Unless the team changes their offensive philosophy to a pass first and wants a different bridge QB who will throw more.

 

What the team should do is hire Cam Cameron away from LSU and allow him to develop Tyrod Taylor. The team will find out soon enough if he develops further or fails to do so. This team also needs to upgrade the WR, RT positions asap.

 

 

Brees.

 

Major difference there. Brees didn't have four years in the league to learn about defenses before he had his first start. His first great year came in his fourth year in the league. And it wasn't as a result of passing less that he started getting good, it was that the light came on. He started looking terrific in training camp that year.

 

And Brees also didn't regress between his fifth and sixth years the way Tyrod has. Just the opposite.

 

You can't compare guys who had difficulties in the first couple of years of their NFL careers with a guy like Tyrod who had four years to learn how to read defenses.

Edited January 18, 2017 by Thurman#1

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

Yeah, $15 mill is on the low end, andyou're right that it's for pretty good reason.

 

But $15 mill isn't the impact of signing him and keeping him for a year. $30.5 mill is (2017: $15.9 mill and 2018: $14+mill dead money). The instant money becomes guaranteed, it's also guaranteed to hit the cap. If you keep him for two years, it will cost a minimum of $40.5 mill (2017: $15.9 mill, 2018: $16.7 mill, 2019: $8 or $9 mill dead cap).

 

That's not bridge QB money. It's insane money if he's kept for only one year and top twelve, franchise QB money if kept for two years. It's only after he's kept for four or five years that his average per year would get down towards $15 mill.

 

Now, if he re-structures, my guess is that the Bills would want to keep him for another year or two. If he turned this year's $15.5 guaranteed roster bonus into five yearly $3.1 mill roster bonuses, each guaranteeing on the third day of the league year, for example. I would guess they'd want to keep him in that case. That would be a bridge QB contract, a contract that would be reasonable for around the 20th best QB in the league.

 

If they keep him it's for at least 2 years. After that if they cut him it's a $3.1M hit over 3 years not an $8 or $9M hit in 2019. Go back and compare this to other QBs: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/tyrod-taylor-7899/ (it's not at or near the top).

 

The second part isn't a resturcture, it's a pay cut. Restructures involve converting bonuses to spread out the cap hit. You'd have to take out the "guaranteeing on the third day of the league year" part. No one is going to take less guaranteed money.