Maury Ballstein Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Who's to blame: Baltimore loss - offense Jets loss - defense NE loss - Tyrod's no show Miami loss - Tyrod's no show in the 4th Seattle loss - 1st half defense and Tyrod's inability to win the game on line in the RZ. Aka "fitzed it" Ftfy. Emotions are fun but the game recaps are available on the google machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 ...and they won by 7. What's the point? Against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Let's see how far 160 yards passing gets us the next 2 weeks. Tyrod needs to anticipate the receivers breaking open and not hold the ball for 5 seconds if he wants to play QB in this league. 32nd ranked passing attack isn't going to win us a super bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 That's fair. But Dalton has never had anything resembling Shady to work with. Imagine an offense that complements Shady, instead of having to depend him, that's all. The fact that we score the way we do now absent a respectable passing game is borderline miraculous. Has he ever had anything resembling a Gillislee or Karlos either? That combo produced absolutely gaudy numbers the past two years and it's not a tiny sample size. Face it, this is an exceptionally well designed run game with good run blocking personnel. Taylor and his combo of big play ability with his feet and deep throwing ability with his arm set the tone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Part of Shady's effectiveness comes from the threat of Tyrod as a runner. He's leading the league in ypc. Defenses have to respect him as a runner and that opens things up for Shady as well. Precisely. This offense is kind of like an improved version of the 2004 Falcons. Rush for about 1 ypc above league average........make big plays in the run game......hope to make big plays in the pass game. Tyrod is a better passer but the comparison is how his skillset alters a defense. Good pocket passers often enhance the effectiveness of defenses against the run because throwing from the pocket doesn't fundamentally change the way they play. When Schwartz attacks with the wide 9 he plays the run on the way to the passer. Tyrod turns D's into contain mode which leaves them in a catch position against the run and the Bills aggressive blocking schemes then help them win battles at the LOS and beyond. If they then try to jam the box like Jax did last week they are not only vulnerable to the deep ball......like to Sammy and Hunter on Sunday......but STILL vulnerable to him breaking contain the way he did on the redzone rush TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 (edited) As I said I would earlier, I ran a few more numbers on some players that I missed last night (mainly Winston, Bortles, Bradford, & Cutler). I ended cutting off the remaining players in the NFL at 20 games. Cutler started the fewest of the ones I did tonight (20GS). The reason I stopped at 20GS was b/c I was in the territory of where I was comparing QB's with 7-12 games started to QB's with 25-27 GS since 2015 and I felt any statistical significance would start to get lost due to the disparity in starts. In reality I shouldn't have included Dak either with only 11 GS but I thought it would be fun since he's such a hot topic currently. Anyway, the red are the additional QB's I did tonight. 1. Tom Brady - 5.7; .7832. Dak - 4.6; .9093. Tyrod - 3.33; .5604. Russel Wilson - 2.94; .6305. Rodgers - 2.82; .5566. Brees - 2.71; .4627. Cam - 2.63; .7318. Alex Smith - 2.62; .6929. Stafford - 2.48; .51910. Cousins - 2.45; .55611. Dalton - 2.39; .54212. Carr - 2.25; .59313. Palmer - 1.89; .61514. Eli - 1.83; .51915. Big Ben - 1.8; .61916. Rivers - 1.73; .33317. Mariota - 1.71; .37518. Tannehill - 1.64; .48119. M. Ryan - 1.62; .556 20. Winston - 1.59; .444 21. Bortles - 1.49; .25922. Luck - 1.46; .41223. Fitz - 1.39; .480 24. Bradford - 1.35; .50025. Flacco - 1.15; .429 26. Cutler - 1.13; .350 Of the 4 additional QB's I did tonight, only Bradford was really any sort of outlier. His Total TD/Total Turnover Ratio is pretty low, yet he manages to come in at exactly a .500 winning % (which as we can see is a substantially better winning % than the QB's he surrounded by). I think a partial explanation for this outlier with Bradford is that in 3 of his first 4 wins this season (he has 5 wins as a starter this season) the Vikings managed to win despite the offense scoring less than 25 points in each of those wins. Because his TD to turnover ratio is low, meaning that he basically turns the ball over as frequently as he's involved in a TD, Bradford is an example of a QB who better have a really good defense if they're going to consistently win. I'll update this list at the end of the year. Edited December 1, 2016 by bobobonators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 (edited) Against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Let's see how far 160 yards passing gets us the next 2 weeks. Tyrod needs to anticipate the receivers breaking open and not hold the ball for 5 seconds if he wants to play QB in this league. 32nd ranked passing attack isn't going to win us a super bowlVegas had the spread at 7. The point differential is exactly what was expected. I don't understand? I don't think that this team is going to win the Super Bowl but I don't honk that passing yards is the reason. There are a bunch of reasons. At the moment there is no correlation between the passing yards and points for the Bills. If there was an issue and the Bills were like 32me in passing yards and 28th in points, I'd be worried. I would think, they need to pass better to score more. They don't throw often because the points are there. If they threw 5-7 more times a game the gross passing stats would be better but not necessarily the points. I would rather be 32nd in passing yards and 8th in points than 9th in points and 31st in passing yards. Edited December 1, 2016 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 I would rather be 32nd in passing yards and 8th in points than 9th in points and 31st in passing yards. The winner/loser decision is based on points, so I'm with you. There are different ways to get points. I'm fine with a top rushing attack, especially with most teams being built to stop the pass now. Having said that, would I like to have more confidence in our passing game? Of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 The winner/loser decision is based on points, so I'm with you. There are different ways to get points. I'm fine with a top rushing attack, especially with most teams being built to stop the pass now. Having said that, would I like to have more confidence in our passing game? Of course. Somewhat surprising thing to me from running those numbers was how so many of these QB's we pine over actually have a worse winning % than TT since the start of 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 The winner/loser decision is based on points, so I'm with you. There are different ways to get points. I'm fine with a top rushing attack, especially with most teams being built to stop the pass now. Having said that, would I like to have more confidence in our passing game? Of course. That's exactly how I feel. I would love to have a better passing game but not at the expense of anything else. If you told me that the Bills becoming 20th in passing yards a game would bump them to 6th in PPG I would be all for it. There is nothing that supports that being the case. For me, in terms of passing gross yardage s totally irrelevant. The 3rd down conversion percentage is the main thing that I want to see improved on offense. That will be running and throwing. I could care less if Tyrod misses a guy on 2nd and 6 and then runs for 8 on 3rd down. The result of a 1st down is what matters. They do need to get better on 3rd down and maybe they would have less 3rd downs if he was more accurate? They need to convert at a higher percentage any way you slice it. They convert at a high percentage in the red zone but they don't get there enough because they don't stay on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 I think the stat is, the Bills are 12-2 when Tyrod throws for under 200 yards. And 2-9 when he throws for over 200 yards. Essentially he's not good enough to win a game through passing production like some of the better QBs in the league. He's definitely a 'game manager' that depends on good rushing/defense to win. Which is fine, that's the best we have, and there's not much available out there. But we can still hope for better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billykaykay Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Is there a QB standard I've missed somewhere that asserts a QB may only be properly measured as a "true passer?" The QB is the leader of the offense; if he is generating points and not turning the ball over he's doing his job. Get out of the old school mindset that a QB is only good if he's throwing the ball all over the field. The only area in which I'm "on the fence" about Tyrod is his ability to lead a 4th Q comeback (although technically he did it Sunday). Finishing off the Seattle game would have been huge. A lot can happen over the next five games, obviously, but right now I'd put my own money down that the Bills will not opt out of Tyrod's deal after the season. I agree Eball that the Bills will stick with TT. 1. He isn't great but he is pretty good. 2. At the moment, they don't have anything better. 3. Anyone in college that might turn out to be better is probably a year or two away from being actually better than TT. 4. Although he has been in the league for six years, he has still not completed two full seasons. IMO he will keep getting better. We shall see what the rest of the season brings. My prediction is that they win 3 out of 5 & probably miss the playoffs, but we will get a good read on TT. Good post. Here's my answer. The stat MOST correlated with winning and losing in the NFL over the decades is passer rating differential. The Bills this year have an 87.3 collective rating (sack yards are factored in, btw), and our opponents have an 87.2 rating. I think our secondary has been the weak link this year, and the loss of Aaron Williams probably cost us the Seattle game. Plus darby has been underperforming while Gilmore has only been pretty decent. I don't know about you, but I don't have much faith in our defense when it's in obvious passing situations and the qb is decent (and/or AJ Green or his equivalent is actually on the field). They really, really struggle against big receivers. It seems that in 3rd & long situations, Rex, the supposedly crazy zone blitzer, resorts to the 3 man rush. Especially, at the end of the half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 I agree Eball that the Bills will stick with TT. 3. Anyone in college that might turn out to be better is probably a year or two away from being actually better than TT Not so sure I ageee. Dak/Wentz/Simien would look pretty solid running play action off McCoy's attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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